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On SNE - Was watching 60 minutes tonight. Leslie was doing a story about their new CEO Sir Howard Stringer (yes he was knighted by the Queen herself - reminds me of Gekko and "Sir Lawrence Wilder" and his comment "a bigger pot to piss in").
Anyways company isn't doing so well and he there to turn things around (first loss in decade; non-Japanese; culture shock; layoffs and plant closings). As Leslie brought up the iPOD, he knew they dropped the ball on the music.
The problem is, being a music company themselves (of which Apple is not), he figures they spent too much time on trying to protect their music, instead of launching a good music player.
Just demonstrates how when you are so big, you are hurt in the innovation department. I amn sure of SNE split up the company, personal/home electronics; entertainment (video games) etc, they could do some serious damage (a la PS3 v. XBox 360). You know, instead of spending months to ensure their TV remotes work with the PS3, they can concentrate on making a killer machine to hurt MSFT.
As for music players, they have diddled too much with their MiniDisc SH*T - while Apple was continuing with the built in harddrive. Sure they have little MP3 players, but nothing they have done has interested me (save for the OLED technology).
We shall see.
B
DJE.V...
Oh and DJE but I cannot figure out what that plsy is yet ... NG or U....
NG or U? Its a promotion play!
B
MR.TO - Junk be a lady.. tonight!
B
Happy 250th Wolfgang!
http://www.google.com/search?q=mozart
Cheers all!
B
(GRUB 96 - tsk tsk.. doesn't have to be that way.. but a free vote in the house would help sooth things LOL!)
What Powers the Growth of China and India?
http://finance.yahoo.com/columnist/article/futureinvest/2237?p=1
By Jeremy Siegel, Ph.D.
Monday, January 16, 2006
I've just returned from a two week tour in India, capped off by an address to the Wharton Global Alumni Forum in Mumbai. It was my first trip to that country in more than 45 years. It was one of the poorest countries in the world when I first visited in 1960, and poverty remains the norm today.
But stay tuned! India is emerging from its long slumber and stands ready to rival China in the global market place. In a later column I will compare investor prospects for China and India, but here I will discuss the sources of economic growth and what makes me so optimistic about the future of those countries.
In my book, The Future for Investors I explain why developing nations, such as China and India, have an unprecedented opportunity to grow their economies. China has lifted many of its people out of poverty by investing in up-to-date capital, education and training, and letting the market, rather than the government, decide what should be produced. India is in the early process of doing the same. Both are setting the stage for a period of staggering discovery, invention, and technological change.
The Industrial Revolution of the 18th century kicked off two hundred years of the greatest growth in the world's history. But that growth will pale in comparison to what's next.
The Growth of Knowledge
We take for granted that tomorrow we will know more about the world than we know today. But throughout history, this was not case. Great inventions of the Chinese more than a thousand years ago were lost for many centuries before being reinvented by others. Similarly, many advances achieved in the Middle Ages and during the Roman Empire were lost for generations.
But starting with the Industrial Revolution the stock of knowledge grew continuously as did the rate of productivity growth. What caused this change? What are the fundamental sources of technological change and productivity?
History provides the answer: the ability of individuals to freely communicate their ideas with others and record them so that others may build on them. Progress accelerates when people work in an economic framework that encourages and rewards those that bring ideas to fruition.
A Look at History
Michael Kremer, a Harvard economist, convincingly argues that until very recently, the density of population was a very good indicator of economic progress because high population density led to increased communication, greater specialization, and the discovery of better techniques for food production. This is why Eurasians had the greatest rate of discovery, followed those in the less densely populated Americas, while those few that migrated to Australia had primitive skill levels.
The ability to communicate accelerated rapidly when China's Ts'ai Lun discovered paper in the second century and again when Johann Gutenberg brought the printing press to Europe more than a thousand years later.
China: Rise and Fall
But the transmission of ideas is not sufficient for progress. New ideas must be recorded--and embraced--so that others can build on them. The rise and fall of China over the last millennium demonstrates how the suppression of new ideas by the reigning authorities led to stagnation and then decline.
China in the 13th and 14th centuries was generally recognized as the most advanced civilization on earth. The Chinese invented paper, timepieces, gunpowder, encyclopedias and moveable type in the ninth century, 500 years before Gutenberg re-invented the printing press.
But all of this was lost. The Ming Dynasty squelched invention and discovery by destroying encyclopedias and others sources of knowledge accumulated over centuries.
"China came within a hair's breadth of industrializing in the 14th century, yet in 1600 their technological backwardness was apparent to most visitors; by the nineteen century the Chinese themselves found it intolerable," wrote Charles Jones, a professor at Stanford University.
In 1455, Johannes Gutenberg fundamentally transformed how information was accessed and transmitted when he invented the printing press. Before Gutenberg it took a scribe six months to copy a book.
After 1500 a rush of scientific achievements laid the foundations of modern science. But Europe had to wait at least two centuries before these discoveries could be turned into the building blocks of the Industrial Revolution. The capital structure of private ownership and a general cultural receptivity to new ideas needed to be established.
The True New Economy
Today, we're on the verge of another revolution - the Information Revolution. All the ingredients are in place. The two most populous countries on earth, China and India, have turned towards a market-oriented system and have liberalized their economies. The vast stock of information is now beginning to flow freely throughout the world, and the ripple effect will spur inventions for years to come.
In 1675, Isaac Newton, called by many as the greatest scientist of all time, said, "If I have seen further, it is by standing upon the shoulders of giants." Newton was referring to the works of Galileo in astronomy and Kepler in physics upon which he based his discoveries. In those days, only a select few had any access to the latest scientific discoveries. Today, anyone with an Internet connection can access cutting edge research in science and technology.
Major scientific breakthroughs, which in the past, originated primarily from the West and Japan, will now come from everywhere. Many brilliant people with previously untapped potential can now tackle the world's toughest challenges. Thanks to the Internet and search engines, information is being shared like never before. Great collaborative research will be undertaken by a population that previously was completely shut off to this knowledge.
Since the number of people with access to the global stock of knowledge has increased dramatically and information is transmitted much more rapidly, it's logical to expect the pace of discovery to accelerate.
India's Road Ahead
When I last visited India, great US companies like GM, U.S. Steel, and IBM ruled the world. But now, Indian firms like Reliance, Wipro, Infosys, Mittal, and Tata are standing in the wings, ready to become the next giants. China and now India are awaiting their day in the sun. In the next column I will discuss the pros and cons of investing in these developing countries.
Frank - anyone - thoughts on the EWJ? Maybe a good time since the latest problem seems to be behind them?
Nikkei posts biggest daily pct gain in 3 months
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh68114_2006-01-19_06-06-50_t74...
Seems ARQ's "significant find" is not doing much with investors.
B
Costco - Absolutely. Even better - they typically have them "on" when you go - hooked up to a DVD player - and when you ask for help - they will bring out (if not already) the remote and you can go at it - looking at things.
As I said I am not into LCD/Plasma technology - I know of "convergence" issues with tubes - so having "every adjustment known to man" was a bonus with the Viewsonic stuff. If you can get a PDF manual and/or go and check it out - you might be able to figure out how good it is. (Again CR might not have Sceptre - or maybe they will; but at least they will say "these are the features which we believe are most important when buying an LCD monitor [and why])". To me the most important specs are "8ms" and "1000:1" contrast ratios.
Viewsonic released a computer LCD at 4ms - not sure how much of a difference between that and 8ms.. but I understood the norm of 16ms was pretty poor with "movies". So watching a DVD at Costco - pay attention to the residual images. (OTOH I saw Sony has in at least one model 8ms - but then they are crap now too so that doesn't mean much).
(8ms doesn't matter if EVERYONE makes an LCD that can only do 8ms at best; so you just need to rule that stuff out of the equation - you want something like this, then pick the specs that really matter and are unique between models).
Have fun(again I will check for any recent CR's with LCD TVs).
Guess the best part is - they don't weigh a tonne.
B
Chuckle. But not recurring...
Interesting sh*t in Japan and the net company problem (Livedoor) - GOOG down $22 and YHOO down and AAPL.. just a big sell off on all of them. More to come I think..
(as we rub our hands in unison).
B
Largest TV I own is a 24" (no fooling!) Have a few 21" and a 13" as well. Not to mention a 21" short neck Viewsonic tube monitor (pride and joy!).
TV is more of a necessity than mere pleasure - so they tend to be on all the time - and hence, part of my "value v. quality" - cheapest junk I can get - and so $179 it was. (since they won't last long anyways).
I haven't moved into LCD/Plasma TVs. We have other priorities (like a 2nd $2000 solid maple armoir to start) and even HDTV isn't high. (We rent the PVR but that in itself has more "interest" value than the TV).
Bottomline - can't provide info. I know Consumer Reports had some articles on big screen TVs - if I find something I will PM you on SI. Epinions.com might help too.
Two things I think I know:
(A) You are looking at a no name. Well its from Costco so you have some support. Consumer reports probably won't help too much - other than guide you with the various technologies.
(B) From what I know, there are only two or three manufacturers of LCD panels. Sort of like the inerts of CD/DVD drives - only probably a handful of companies make them. So what you are left with mostly are the "features".
Is one year the norm for that stuff? Huh! The TV does appear to have 7 inputs so that is pretty good. Though I found some of them are cheesy - SVIDEO OR RCA typically. So the count is probably lower.
I would suggest going to Costco if you can and check them out - there are issues with "watching" them from an angle - from the top or side (depends on model). Pay attention to brightness and overall quality. (or what you can at Costco). Go to a Sony Store and check out some Panasonic - so you can absorb what is out there (Epinions might point you to questions that need to be answered). I think Panasonic is a manufacturer of "stuff" themselves - they seem to be more into plasma though.
Pros and Cons with all.
B
Time to revisit the AAPL iPOD model?
http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=28793
If only AAPL got a cut for each clip/movie..
B
(CHK) & FDG - They spoke about it (them) in the Maker & Breakers section this past weekend - Forbes on Fox (cripes.. the crap I remember)
At any rate.. not a lot of meat compared to what Frank offered, but some press nonetheless.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,181087,00.html
Makers & Breakers
• Chesapeake Energy (CHK)
Jordan Goodman, author of "Master Your Money Type": MAKER
Chesapeake Energy is a real play on natural gas prices. Natural gas has actually been down recently but I think it will be going up much higher. We have a long-term supply/demand imbalance with natural gas and Chesapeake Energy is the best way to play that. They just bought Columbia Gas Systems for $2.2 billion and they have huge reserves.
Dagen McDowell: You say it can go up over 50 percent to $50 in just one year. (Friday’s close $32.25)
Victoria Barret: BREAKER
There are a lot of reasons to like this company, including really great margins. But I’m afraid you’re buying at the top and this company has lots of debt, especially because of that acquisition.
Elizabeth MacDonald: MAKER
The debt issue is not a problem. They’ve got $12 billion in assets. A lot of insider buying at this company too.
• Fording Coal Trust (FDG)
Jordan Goodman: MAKER
This is a company that has something called metallurgical coal which is the coal used to make steel. It’s got a 16 percent dividend yield and I think it’s got a lot of upside.
Dagen McDowell: You say it’s heading to $50 in just one year. (Friday’s close $36.52)
Elizabeth MacDonald: MAKER
Supply constraints and worldwide demand will keep coal prices high.
Victoria Barret: MAKER
There’s a huge demand in China for exactly what this company makes.
Dagen McDowell: But the stock has been up for four years in a row and some may say you're buying at the top at this level.
B
LOL! Congrats.. yeah I was gonna say.. "well my day was ho hum but Roni must be jumping for joy!". So that would be an understatement of a lifetime (so far).
Read the ticker up to $80.. nice. I read how the iPOD sales did extremely well last quarter.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/060110/apple_macworld.html?.v=5
The best single "profit taking" day I had (one stock), years ago, was about a $20,000C. Coulda woulda shoulda more.. but.. always others! Jumped pretty high that day, but even after looking back and still today looking for consistent returns - the big ones will come every now and then.
At any rate, cheers and continued success, Roni!
Blake
Thanks for the info.
Mostly in cash myself - planning and reviewing stuff still - doing ok otherwise.
Energy - just in trusts (Acclaim/Viking - taken out and renamed - good money overall).
Golds - Yeah still in AGI, CKG (never added - from a couple of years ago so yes AGI is really in the black).
Some of the poor ones might wake up and I will exit accordingly (MR; ARQ; AQI and others I just wouldn't want to bring out of the closet). Slowly I am purging the junk.
Had a royal PITA this last tax loss season. A stock I had - delisted - I offset some gains and told TD to sell dribs and drabs over the years (no point in taking it all in one shot; no commission; more of a function - they issue you a letter showing the removal); well this past Feb 05 the blasted stock somehow listed in the US - Nasdaq - oh yeah, still deader than a doorknob but that listing prevents me from removing from my account. CURSE YOU, AQUASCUM!!! (I have to walk a fine tight rope - we get baby money and the feds screw you - baby money is based on NET and losses from previous years reduces your taxes but does not reduce net; in my prime with the kids at their current age; also affects the spousal money).
I do want some specific (value as you say) stocks - but I would like to add some "funds" that don't force me to pick and choose. iSHARE/ETF yadda yadda. Will look around. Thanks for the AMD - one of the reasons (fundamental; no I would not enter until technicals looked better) - is that they have a dual processor out some other things that Intel has been dragging their feet with. Chips are doing very well in tech right now.
OT: Investment Reporter likes CRY.TO and GND.TO. Had some go forward positive comments on ATD-SVB.TO as well (entering a "fractured US market" will help them). METRO apparently owns about 10% or so - but they seem to be more keen on ATD.
Didn't catch the entire debate last night - I still shake my head - "why don't we, in Ontario, have any single candidate pushing our agenda like Quebec does?" LOL! Oh well, even if I could have a BLOC sign, I couldn't - I live in a condo.. rules are rules. Harper held up well, IMO.
Grab and Maul said that Martin released the hounds. Martin can talk and talk and talk but the corruption stuff is there. Sort of like the BTK killer - could be member of the church and sometimes a nice guy but.. still a serial killer..
Had to laugh - about a week ago a chinese guy was interviewed "who would you vote for". He went Layton - blah blah blah.. "and his wife is from China". (ROTFLMAO!!!) I suppose Layton never had that on his agenda huh? Families huh? Chuckle.
Haven't seen Kirby for quite a while.. our PC candidate use to be part of the Town Council. I guess if the guy likes Layton because of his wife, I like my guy because of our pools. I know where the Green Party home is (HA!) Should be interesting down to the wire..
B
Frank - what are your thoughts on AMD? Am looking at tech sector again and would like to include that. At the very least QQQQ or ETF of some sort.
S
Interesting read.
(3) Interest rate hikes.. agree somewhat. Unsure of rate but sounds right.
(4) Retail Sales drop off.. strongly agree.
(8) Part on GM interesting. Are they one of the Dogs of the Dow this year? The new management Steve Miller (with financial assistance and the managerial support of Wilbur Ross) sounds pretty good. Was a good article on Wilbur Ross in Business Week. (isn't it great when you read articles of this nature and say "I know that company" or "I know that guy" - and both are obscure.
(13) What goes up must come down and feel something with GOOG has to happen. More analysts today with further $600+ valuations.
(14) AAPL as written and etc.
(On the aside-- not AAPL) Today I was watching On the Money and they had flashbacks to when Jobs even questioned the need of VOD - but stated that AAPL has to create that market.
Read this weekend about CSI and Survivor for CBS on VOD. Surviror, to me, is like a ballgame. It is hard to go to work Friday and not have people talk about it - so why watch it? I guess you missed it by an hour and you pay $2 to watch it? Ah yes.. foibles. And $2 to watch CSI which ends up being re-run in a couple of months? (The big R in the TV guide). Porno VOD? -- well if porno has a way.. PBS (Charlie Rose) - up to 24hrs free streaming then charge thereafter. Chuckle.
I mean "one ofs" maybe, but do they think this VOD stuff is going to bring in recurring revenue? Doubtful.
(17) What do to with TWX? Would not believe Steve Case would take charge. He is well into his "lifestyle" retreats now. (saw that a bit again tonight on "On the Money"). .. then again Lou Dobbs did leave CNN to start his internet site SPACE.COM so WTF knows?
In general I think this "content" is king stuff is crap. Bell owns Grab&Maul and CTV - I think it is a waste of energy. Why Rogers owns the Blue Jays - so they don't have to pay to show the games? !? All the media companies including said Cable etc, will undergo major surgery over the years to come.
I think I was watching Kudlow tonight and a question was poised on the whole media and cable. Ways of getting at stuff. For me to watch TV via my cable - the speeds have to increase substancially. Then again I haven't seen movies over DSL that Bell supposedly does not.
(18) Citigroup - yeah about time..
(25) Off-shoring of IT .. sounds good to me..
B
IBD Free - Jan 9-15
Thanks to AT&T ;->
I always wondered if they would "remaster" Kubrick's 2001: A Space Odyssey, would they change the scene with the AT&T logo after the phone call home?
http://www.investors.com/free
B
So APPL can do no wrong, huh? LOL!
Would you recommend people to buy at these levels. If not, why and where?
Wu is you! Yeah, like I said "GOOG" and the other DOT BOMBS. Is he new? Did some other analyst throw him the "Henry Blodget Guide to Pushing Shit Stocks" guide?
Video iPOD is a nice toy but sorry, that ain't going to bring home much bacon as I said.
The record companies were slow to adopt the net. Hollywood already beat them by lowering the prices of all DVD movies.
But alas as I said TV and Movies AIN'T music. The model is broken and most of what they sell is fluff. Dell is having problems - HPQ is coming back but not doing that great. And out of Cupertino CA comes a company that can DO NO WRONG!
Are you drinking KOOL-AID Roni? With 3 fingers of Vodka?
Good luck. I am not good at forecasting but I think it is extremely dicey at these levels.
http://www.forbes.com/2003/01/06/cx_da_0106topnews.html
B
AAPL: The R&B Showwwwwwwwww!
Well to take a bit of what you said.. in Canaduh I have my beloved Rogers Cable. They offer a service called ROD (Rogers on Demand). If you have digital cable you probably know what I am talking about. There is PayPerView (PPV) - which has set start times. ROD allows me to what a movie or TV show when I want. On our forced monopoly movie network they also offer on-demand. I can go into that subsystem and start any movie I want. I can fast forward/rewind and stop and continue later. (up to 24hrs).
Apparently because of the "one way" issues with satellites, they cannot offer this two way system - cannot offer on-demand services.
In Business Week they talked about this area - specifically on an article related to cable company growth. Part of that growth surrouned around this on demand stuff. Forget movies for the time being, the real gem it appears deals with missed TV shows. So I miss a season finale of CSI and say now what? Well I will go and pay $1.00 to watch CSI on the ROD service.
Now we rent a PVR ($22/mth). There is no way no how I will pay $1 to watch CSI when we have a PVR along with time shifting. I find better value (again how I think) in $22/mth than that single shot at $1/show. (Longterm is to create my own PVR system and just buy/rent basic boxes).
Just not sure how this ROD stuff is being accepted and used by viewers. Oddly, I am a VIP user - as VIP I get each month a free 7 day video at Rogers Video. Now their goal is for me to rent; forget and nail me with overdue fees. But why aren't they pitching "rent a movie at the store - or view any ROD program up to $4.99 in value"? They haven't. WHY? I don't know why but I am surmising that it ain't flying.
Watching a movie on demand - honestly in our home we own Jaws, we own Die Hard, we own Terminator 2, we own Wanda and her three Wicked Nasty Half Sisters (LOL). Guess what. When any of those movies are on TV (with commericals no less) my wife tends to watch them. She won't go over and get the DVD and play it. Why? I have no idea. But this again begs the effectiveness of "on demand". She can get a movie ON DEMAND but seems to want to surf looking for shows. (she tends to watch 2-3 programs at the same time in general).
All this goes back to the "ON DEMAND" (VOD) stuff that Apple is pushing. Business Week spoke of problems with the iTUNES purchases - waning. "the fun of doing it" is gone, it appears.
Neat to download a TV show and show someone. But TV shows aren't music. I could listen to the same song or group of songs for MONTHS. Once you watch the CSI episode - what then? Maybe you watch it again years later? Maybe? Not saying you are, but if anyone out there is trying to extrapolate sales of music and apply them to VOD purchases - they are out of (as Fred would say) their rock picking minds!!
Now I understand that Apple is designing their own cell phones. (you didn't mention that). Ok the ROKR was a bit of a marketing disaster - fine. But lets envision a NANO in cell format. I can listen to my iTUNES and download my VOD -- and -- watch LIVE TV (as cells are offering today). That would be a great hit. But APPLE isn't entering into the cell business - who of which will make money, not Apple. (Unless in a few months they merge with VZ and call it a merger of equals (not totally out of the question).
So I am saying the VOD is limited and questionable. Yes it is a new frontier - but the model is broken. Kastel doesn't change his entire schedule to gather around the boob tube to watch CSI. He won't blow his money on VOD either. He will watch CSI when it is in syndication and can watch them - every day at 10pm. I never watched Seinfeld nor Simpsons that much when they aired either. We watch Seinfeld every week day. (after Judge Judy).
For VOD to work you need $$ from customers. Where do they get that $$ from? They are already forking out money to get cable. VOD can't replace their TV - so you have a broken model. So what?
Someone I spoke to at work said - once they watch a movie, never again do they watch it. I am different - there are a handful of movies I have watched >20 times (Wall Street; THe Sting; French Connection; Silent Partner; 007 (Sean/Roger). And yes certain TV shows (Seinfeld; Mash; Simpsons and lesser of Wonder Years and Sex and the City). But I ain't going to BlockBuster to rent Seinfeld nor any other movie that I know for fact is on basic TV - whether I can watch it now or who knows when.
Music is different - until satellite, reception is poor. And typically you are held hostage to crap programming. It is cost effective and the model works. It will continue to work, but again AAPL isn't a monopoly on that business.
Further..
(1) Apple I thought was getting out of the (computer) hardware business. Hence moving their X OS to Intel ??
I am mixed on that - I figured their margins were too high but at least they had a good handle on the hardware being proprietary.
You mention the intel Mac laptops. Great. So they are holding the monopoly on Tiger? I can't go to the store buy Tiger and install on my qualifying Intel CPU? If the answer will be forever NO, that is a serious negative.
What do you know about the Apple game plan on using INTEL? Intel is going to bend over for them and provide a custom CPU with code not found in other INTEL chips? (highly unlikely - R&D costs are enormous). Embed a code that only works on gear sold by Apple? They do that now for Wintel so that would be feesable - but that now introduces pirated versions of Tiger - due out within 3 months of it's release (thats a generous time frame). So what do you know?
If I could buy Tiger, that might help stoke their software and licensing royalties on 3rd party Mac gear (do they have those?).
Remember our first encounter - you remember between AAPL DELL and GTW? Hmm.. Haw.. Hmm? Weak weak weak margins.
--- so you go from monopoly on gear with huge margins -- to non-prop. gear and weak margins. That will not help the stock price.
(2) Software - How many companies (besides MSFT) can make serious money from software sales? INTU perhaps - but not many. Weak business. (Notice how MSFT went into the gaming hardware business). Piracy is a huge factor.
(3) If you believe Yahoo Market Caps - Apple is just 8B less than Dell. Something wrong with that evaluation.
What is Apple's overall market position with PCs these days? Sure you can throw out education and rest as numbers - but I thought Apple has lost its dominance in education.
(4) 1GB Nano - I don't disagree on the thought but at what price? I just can't see a sub $150 model. They have a deal on memory so that isn't the driving cost. They have pigeon holed themselves in a high price range.
That leaves out the cheap pricks like me that fear the unit will become defective a day after the warranty expires and don't think it is worth the high cost to begin with.
I am just not getting it. You sort of sound like people I heard during the late 90s and early 00s with the net - AAPL can do no wrong. Someone comes out and says they are going to sell poop over the net, and .. well.. you know where the IPO went..
Not that I would not say "stay with your winners" but I will say -- YES I should have bot Apple a year or two ago and YES I think it is richly valued at this point. Again they are a top notch company, but can't see how they can sustain their stock price with a lot of nothing really. I think cutting them in half - with a price between $25-$35 - perhaps no higher than $40. But not at today's levels.
Oddly the analysts on TV - CNBC/FoxNews etc are touting APPL and GOOG. And why not. They are the flavor of the day and why buck a trend right? GOOG is valuated at $137B. 1/3 of GE. 1/3 of GE. 1/3 of GE. A place I can go to search for porn sites is valued at 1/3 of GE. BS! I question any analyst pushing GOOG. Not always, but Frank pulls out some nice "hidden gems" that are undervalued. A number on the Fox shows (Ben Stein; Jim Rogers; Wayne Rogers; Jon Hoenig) come out with these kinds of gems and I listen to them. The googlers say "those stocks are crap" because they are blind. Robert Drach (NBR) said last night "he loves what everybody hates"
Drach model portfolio on NBR http://nbr.com/drach/drach.html
In O'Neil's book he talks about someone who bot only high quality companies that are hitting new 52W. Good strategy. James Dines "buy high - sell higher". APPL fits the new high strategy but as for quality.. And GOOG?
Just on the side Roni, I can tell you almost NOTHING is 100% fantastic. So being objective - what are your top 3 negatives with Apple? Don't pussy foot around - be Frank (Pembleton) and tell us some real big stuff that bothers you with this stock. (PSSSST.. I won't cross post it on the AAPL board you post to - LOL!).
Do tell, Roni!
I am beyond sold on APPL the company. But not on the price.
B
Blake Wrong! BBY, CC Sales juMP!
Well it looks like gadgets and TVs were a big hit. XBOX 360 sales did well but legacy platform software sales declined..
(HA! Yeah I buy what others care not for. I went to GameSpy/GameSpot - reviewed all GameCube games -- read and wrote down info on all games rated 8.5+ -- then with my facts in hand specifically bot a 2-3 year old game for $30 at BlockBuster and also Nascar 2005 (highly rated) at WMT for $40. Both new, and passed on the "just out" crap that was for $60 - and rated poor. Son loves both games and reviews were bang on).
Burning [rhetorical] question to Roni -- have investors ramped up AAPL's price too high expecting the iPODS to roll of the shelves this past holiday? My opinion (disclaimer - I know SH*T!) is that iPOD will be losing market share to the cheapo MP3 players -- more than expected. I personally see a place for iPOD, but - as stated to John - if I want my kids to take them to school, iPOD is just too expensive. People then will buy the no names and figure out - well they aren't iPODS, but they are competent.
Before the fall I saw mostly saw 2nd tier companies -- Samsung; iRIVER selling their higher end 1MB players - north of $150C. Since then, I am seeing a lot of 3rd tiers - Centrino (Radio Shack SH*T), RCA and other ones all storing 1MB and under $150C. That fits well into the Walmart model - and helps those with tight budgets.
Though I like the Nano, I think Apple should have came out with a new Shuffle - 512/1MB with a screen and sold it for under $150C. I already went over various pros/cons, but this would have kept options open for customers in that lower space.
** LETS NOT FORGET ** Apple is no longer a hardware maker only - they are a music retailer. All manufacturers look beyond the gear - for the recurring sales. The Samsung color laser at Costco for $389C looks like a steal - but the catch isn't that unit but the consumables (INK!). If Apple sold a cheapo shuffle (with screen) that keeps people in the Apple fold on ITUNES and would encourage sales with that cash cow. I still think there is lots of money to be made in the 3rd tier group. (Apple could very well provide a 90 day warranty on that crap). Anyways, an opinion.
On the side, Jay Leno had a "porno on an iPOD" in a skit -- in the middle of the screen (surrounded by black) you see this tiny image and can't help but laugh.
At any rate -- continued good luck and congrats on your AAPL plays, Roni!
Best Buy, Circuit City Holiday Sales Jump
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060106/consumer_electronics_sales.html?.v=2
Best Buy, Circuit City Report Strong Holiday Revenue on Surging Sales of High-End Televisions
MINNEAPOLIS (AP) -- Retailers who wondered where their customers went during a so-so holiday season might have tried looking in the TV aisles at Best Buy and Circuit City.
The nation's two largest consumer electronics retailers both reported strong holiday revenue on Friday driven by surging sales of high-end televisions and larger average purchases. December sales jumped 5.8 percent at Best Buy Co. Inc. stores open at least 14 months. The increase was 10.8 percent at Circuit City Stores Inc. locations open at least a year, a key industry barometer of a retailer's health.
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Best Buy said fourth-quarter earnings would be near the top of its earlier guidance -- previously announced at $1.06 to $1.16 per share -- and its stock rose $3.55, or more than 8 percent, to close at $47.05 on the New York Stock Exchange.
Circuit City shares rose 15 cents to close at $22.94. Best Buy shares had been knocked down from around $50 a share in December by a disappointing outlook, while Circuit City shares have been climbing steadily from about $16 a share in September.
Both companies said sales of flat-panel TVs more than doubled at existing stores, and reported double-digit percentage increases in digital audio player sales. Both reported declines in sales of DVD players, whose prices have been falling.
Both said video game hardware sales rose during the first full month of Xbox 360 sales, though Best Buy said video game software declined as customers slowed purchases for existing platforms.
Analysts said the two retailers are benefiting from the gift-giving shift toward TVs and gadgets.
"For the first time, both industry leaders are posting numbers suggestive of a strong product cycle," Goldman Sachs analyst Matthew Fassler wrote in a note to clients.
Best Buy Vice Chairman and Chief Executive Brad Anderson said he was "pleased and encouraged by the fact that virtually all of our businesses met or exceeded our expectations for December. As usual, customers shopped later than ever and results strengthened as the month progressed."
Best Buy also saw appliance sales rise 7.7 percent, probably spurred by homeowners trying to offset higher energy prices with more efficient appliances, said Craig R. Johnson, president of retail consulting firm Customer Growth Partners.
Both companies said overall revenue rose 12 percent from December 2004, to $5.7 billion for Best Buy and $1.98 billion for Circuit City.
Johnson said the two companies posted the strong results despite tough competition from Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and other discounters jockeying for TV customers, and despite the wide availability of the iPod music player. Those kinds of products once belonged mostly to Best Buy and Circuit City, but they're getting easier to find in non-electronics stores and online.
Both reported strong gains in Web sales. Best Buy saw online revenue jump 40 percent as more customers shopped and redeemed gift cards online.
Circuit City reported strong growth in its "Web-originated sales," which rose 49 percent in December compared to the same month in 2004. W. Alan McCollough, Circuit City's chief executive, credited the company's express pickup service, which allowed customers to order gifts online as late as Christmas Eve and then pick them up at stores.
It "was a competitive advantage during the month," McCollough said.
Richmond, Va.-based Circuit City raised its sales outlook for its current fiscal year, predicting total sales growth of 10 percent to 12 percent, up from a range of 8 percent to 10 percent.
Circuit City has been turning around its business -- relocating stores, narrowing its focus and revamping its merchandising. Its earnings have pleasantly surprised Wall Street in the past two quarters.
Analysts have been impressed, but some have warned that the smaller chain won't be able to keep up much longer with retail heavyweights including Best Buy and Wal-Mart.
Credit Suisse analyst Gary Balter wrote in a note to clients that Friday's strong results in TVs, music players, accessories and video games are encouraging, though.
"We continue to believe that the strong cycles in each of these categories should drive positive results through 2006," he wrote.
Best Buy said it would delay its fourth-quarter plans for converting more stores to an approach that focuses on particular customer groups, such as soccer moms or small-business owners.
However, its seven new stores planned for the quarter will use the new format, Chief Financial Officer Darren Jackson said. Best Buy had warned last month that it would slow its segmenting initiative because it is costing more than expected.
"Our goal is to balance high-return initiatives with the operational costs," Jackson said.
AP Business Writer Stephanie Stoughton in Richmond, Va., contributed to this report.
B
(GRUB 69!)
Someone mention a pizza? Retail sales SUCK!
Cripes - if WMT can't push the Chinese junk - WTF can?? My only xmas gift from them was Nascar 2005 for GC! Wait and see the electronic guys..
Anyways lowest numbers in 5 years!
Wal-Mart offers cautious view on quarter
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B12A2002C%2D2C60%2D4CE7%2DADD8%2D1A59A373AA5E%7D&am...
CHICAGO (MarketWatch) - Wal-Mart Stores Inc. warned investors Thursday that fourth-quarter profit was tracking near the low of end of its forecast, amid tepid holiday sales, meaning earnings would come in below Wall Street's current average estimate.
Wal-Mart, which attempted to jump-start the holiday shopping season with a pricey marketing program that began Nov.1, said total sales climbed 6.3% to $40.83 billion.
Same-store sales - an important industry measure of sales at stores open longer than a year - rose a modest 2.2%, the company confirmed Thursday. However, it was food sales that fed most of December's sales, dominating receipts in three of the crucial month's weeks. As compared to general merchandise sales, food sales deliver thinner profit margins.
Wal-Mart said that fourth-quarter results will come in at the low end of its range of 82 cents to 86 cents a share. At Thomson First Call, analysts had reached a dead-center average expectation of 84 cents. Typically, Wal-Mart would characterize its profit expectation as in the middle of the range if that's what executives were expecting.
Offering maybe a glimmer of hope is that December's receipts rose because customers were willing to pay more per trip. That helped offset the fact that fewer people were shopping.
Wal-Mart has launched a number of initiatives in the last year aimed at selling higher-priced, better-quality merchandise to attract a higher-income customer. That is a strategy that has worked well for rivals Target and Costco Wholesale which have been able to better ride out the tide of a sluggish economy than Wal-Mart.
The move could suggest that at least some of Wal-Mart's shoppers aren't turned off by higher-priced merchandise such as $168 fresh-packed salmon filets or $100 set of 1,000-thread count sheets and pillow cases.
On the other hand, it underscores a growing fear among many retailers that consumers - especially those whose budgets are pinched with higher energy costs -- are getting tapped out and shopping less.
The results were disappointing to investors - particularly because Wal-Mart held firm on its projection of a 2% to 4% rise in same-store sales throughout the month.
This week, senior executives have attempted to temper the surprise, saying publicly that they were pleased with the holiday results.
B
Ed To this day, Costco's return policies blow away every competitor!
(Double Cheese and Pepppppperoni.. Thin Crust.. Extra Sauce.. Whole Wheat.. with a Coke (w/Lemon & Tequila)
Marty - from what? Winning on Wall Street?
Now someone else did a bunch of statistics. Then Marty "picked them up" and continued them (says that in the book). Someone on TV mentioned it - about Marty's book, that once the current crop of investors know the "periods", as he describes in the book, investors prepare in advance for the event. (ie January effect may not be so pronounced because it is "expected". Then when January effect doesn't happen for years, people forget about it - then it happens again. If October is always bad then people will take evasive action - enough that October won't be so bad for years to come. yadda yadda..
Nowadays, people hold off on buying big ticket electronics until after Christmas. For me, I figure one of the best times to buy, almost anything, is around the end of January - to end of - February. Its cold outside and people are in "credit card hang over" mode - and its before spring - time to get rid of the crap once and for all, that never moved around Christmas. But not always.
I try to wait until Costco has the magic last "7".
As for January effect.. we shall see..
Cheers!
B
LOL! Calvados = Apple Brandy. Thanks to Wikipedia!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calvados_%28spirit%29
I must profess I haven't tried that. Peach and Cherry brandies. Brandy is dandy but not much of a fan. Liqueur? Have Ginger, Triple Sec (of course), mint and a nice Guaaberry from Sint Maarten. I got booze coming out my ears - still have some from my many Vegas treks. The only standard for me as far as mixed drinks go is Long Island Ice Teas (with Tequila!). Drink 'em like pop. Blue Lagoons would be a close second. A standard drink with Pizza is Coke, Lemon cubes, Tequila and ice. Tequila - of all the hard liquors - that one is the one I will go through a few bottles a year. (Ahem Kastel!) Rum and Coke is so... old sk00l! Still have an unopened bottle of "Cordon Rouge" Grand Marnier that one of my bosses bot me at Christmas a number of years ago. Mostly now merely a glass of red wine at dinner kind of guy. Never been much into beer - favs are Heineken, Labatts Blue, and Sapporo (in the can that could double as a bullet proof vest).
(so you all know what I am into when I visit.. nykk nykk nykk..)
As for my NEW YEARS drink.. a 200mL bottle of MARTINI & ROSSI ASTI. Wonderful flavor - not too strong. Now that I could drink like pop too. Use to drink HENKELL TROCKEN but didn't enjoy it much (too dry I think).
A pro? Or more like a Jim Rogers? (his site is pretty interesting - http://www.jimrogers.com/ talks about his Millennium trip et al.
I started my New Years early - playing Laser Quest (you put on a backpack and shoot people and get points etc Doom, Quake, Halo, Far Cry, FEAR - but for people) with my son last night. The first game was far better - by the time I was half way in the middle of the second I wanted out - no gas (wasn't prepared to even play one game let alone two).
Well as I said, I heard differently - definitely October. Source I cannot remember. They could be wrong.
Cheers!
S
Cheers to all in 2006!
Last few years the "January Effect" hasn't been so pronounced (or rather non-existant?)
At any rate I understand that, in the US at least, Mutual Fund companies are required to do tax loss selling in October not December. Hence another reason why October is the worse month.
Out of curiosity - I never checked and wondered if anyone has at their fingertips when the Mutual Fund companies were told to do this? Or if this has existed forever or very long time.
Best 6 mths are November thru April.. right?
Cheers!
B
At Costco they sell the Sansa 1GB for like $120 or something. It was solid in my opinion in all regards but the major block for me was the lack of resume. as I stated I listen to streaming audio - audio books and DJ sets - Armin Van Burren and DJ Tiesto. Sansa tech said the other models (not e140 and their equiv) had the "bookmark" feature. Feature - should be mandated by Congress!
Assuming nothing more is said here, at least it would be nice to see you spend a bit of time and post your review on Epinions (good or bad).
Good luck with the firmware (always fun!).
How does the Belkin transmitter work? You plug it into the "headset out" then it locks into a dead radio signal and beams the audio? Thought that was only for iPODS. My buddy and I tried his in his house and said the same thing - at home there is probably more interference (hence I can get Classical FM no problems on 96.3 in the car.. but at home hear noise - so I sometimes tune to 103.0 and hear it ok).
And on shopping - never care to look at ads nor go out Boxing day. I hear "sales" were good this holiday but the consensus so far is "low margin crap". (That would be in sync with the problems in the US - Best Buy reporting poor sales prior to Christmas). We shall see.
Lately I have started watching "ON THE MONEY" at 7pm on CNBC. An excellent show - sort of liken it to a TV version of Business Week - lots of little stories that help give me the big picture. Someone came on the show and discussed a company's sales/profits (Circuit City or Best Buy or similar) and reemed off a number like $3B in sales and they made a profit of $13Million. The question posed was "Why would you waste your time trying to sell $3B in stuff to only get back $13Million?" Chuckle.
Cheers John at al!
Blake
Merry Christmas Everyone!!
Just a ho hum message to you all..
First I want to wish everyone and their families a very Merry Christmas and all the best in 2006!
Stock wise I have held back mostly on opening any further positions. I made money in CPST and so far doing quite well on AGI. Still own CKG and watching MR go up and down like a yo-yo! Earlier in the year did pretty good with PYR. Done amazingly well on my Acclaim; Progress; Viking trusts (thanks Kastelco!), not to mention the recurring revenue each month. Not a great year but could have been worse.
I have been more focused on completeting specific tasks along with better organization. Have moved forward on a number of investing inititives. Going at my own pace. Haven't been reading the boards too much as I need to stay focused on being focused. All in due time.
First we take School Council.. then we take Berlin...
I have been involved in our son's school for the past couple of years, and have attended the odd School Council meeting. This year I promised myself to make every meeting and so far so good. My ultimate goal is to join the board next year. Something went wrong this year with the Fundraising - missteps across every money making initiative. As such I have voiced some concern, which in turn raised my presence and perceived interest. As such, during the last meeting a new subcommittee on Fundraising was created of which I am a member. Further during the last meeting the head of the fundraising announced that she, after three years, no longer wants to head this position. Both her and the president, as they talked about grooming, specifically turned in my general direction. Gulp! There actually is another mother who is not part of the board but also wanted part in the subcommittee -- I am sort of hoping she wants to take on the role. Heading fundraising wasn't something that was on my radar - the thought of asking others for money is not part of my psyche - I am a saver and investor not a spender and loaner. At any rate, we shall see. You could throw out everything and conclude that I have a lot riding on my tires, and my youngest of 3 will be going to the school as well. The only piece that is troublesome is the make up of the school. This isn't your usual Gr JK-8 but rather Gr. JK-4. Some schools can do well with the older kids picking up the slack of the younger classes where as in our school - everyone matters. Tough row to ho... ho.. ho...
Technology & Retail
Congrats John - you were successful with a music player, I see. Was walking Wednesday in FutureSh*t, not only one employee hitting you each aisle, but in some aisles TWO. Might be wrong but I think this has been a poor Christmas so far, no matter what I have heard. My eyes tell me. I was also in one Thursday and saw more people, but still not as many as I would expect. Ny idea of a retail bonanza is counting the number of people in lines, not the number of bodies in the store nor cars in the lot.
At any rate, some good news. I bot 16x DVDs at FutureSh*t for $7.99 (25pk) - great price - works to $0.37/disc now. The DVDs were not recognized in my LG DVD Multiwrite (4163B). No matter what I tried, no go. Who to question? Well I emailed LG a couple of nights ago. The very next day, in the morning, a tech support emails me with a special "patch" for the 16x Memorex discs! Boom it worked. Now that is great service!! So far the LG has been a very reliable writer. Recommended!
Oxygen.. I need some oxygen (George of Seinfeld after Jerry says "I slept with Elaine last night." in The Deal)
I love the subtle jokes on TV dealing with some industries that just love to ding you with various fees - credit cards; cable; cell; and of course cars! A rather good example was in one of the later seasons of Seinfeld.. Jerry trying to get a deal on a car with Puddy - but Puddy and Elaine were involved in a spat..
The Dealership
..
PUDDY: (While punching up numbers on a calculator) That chick’s whacked. We’re history. (Back to the transaction) I just left out a couple of things: rust-proofing..
JERRY: "Rust-proofing"?
PUDDY: (Reading off what he’s adding up on the calculator) Transport charge, storage surcharge, additional overcharge, finder’s fee
JERRY: "Finder’s fee"? It was on the lot!
PUDDY: Yeah, that’s right. (Continues reading off) Floor mats, keys..
JERRY: ‘Keys"?!
PUDDY: How ya gonna start it?
..
LOL!
I happened to catch this Porky Pig & Daffy Duck cartoon. Episode is crudely done - from what I found - 1943! But it clearly shows how even then, everyone knew how bad the hotels were! I mean to charge for 2 days of sunshine........
Last, but certainly not least..
To all: Beware of June 6, 2006.
..
..
With the guards of Magog swarming around,
The Pied Piper takes his children underground.
The Dragon's coming out of the sea,
with the shimmering silver head of wisdom looking at me.
He brings down the fire from the skies,
You can tell he's doing well by the look in human eyes.
You'd better not compromise.
Babe, tt won't be easy.
666 is no longer alone,
He's getting out the marrow in your back bone.
And the seven trumpets blowing sweet rock & roll,
Gonna blow right down inside your soul.
Pythagoras with the looking glass reflects the full moon,
In blood, he's writing the lyrics of a brand new tune.
And it's hey babe, with your guardian eyes so blue,
Hey my baby, don't you know our love is true,
I've been so far from here,
Far from your loving arms.
Now I'm back again, and baby it's going to work out fine.
..
..
Supper's Ready; from Genesis album Foxtrot
In the voice of Dean Martin..
(whilst he drinks his J&B scotch and three tablespoons of soda)
Oh the weather outside is frightful,
but inside - HEY! I'm quite delightful...
And since we have no place to gooooo..
Expletive.. Expletive.. Expletive..
Cheers to All.. and to all a great Cheer! Here's to making serious coin in 2006!
Sexton O. Blake
The standard "S&P 500" - I assume that is $SPX on SC?
Obtuse as I might be, the name on SC is "S&P 500 Large Cap Index" - the Large Cap part is throwing me.
I have always merely seen as "S&P 500" - as on Yahoo and Standard and Poors. The value appears to be right - but I wanted to double check.
TIA!
Season's Greetings all!
Blake
Dour Crowd So Wrong It's Right; Market Has Rallied For 6 Week
BY KEN HOOVER
INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
Posted 11/25/2005
"When everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong," legendary stock market sage Humphrey Neill said decades ago.
It's a timeless paradox: When the crowd is certain stocks can only go lower, the market goes higher. And when everyone is giddy with optimism, the market is likely ready to take a costly tumble.
Investors should focus their attention on the price and volume action of the major market averages and leading stocks.
The market bottomed on Oct. 13, then followed through with a strong gain on good volume Oct. 19. It signaled further strength on Nov. 2 and 3.
Still, sentiment indicators do help provide a fuller picture of how the market is doing.
So what is the mood of investors now that a solid-looking rally is more than one month old?
Earlier this month, an indicator created by market strategists at Citigroup signaled one of the highest levels of pessimism since 1994, when the market was about to start a powerful bull market. Investor gloom is even deeper than after 9-11 or just prior to the Iraq War in March 2003.
"On of the reasons is that even though 9-11 was a huge shock to everyone, in many instances people just hung on. It was too late to sell," said Citigroup strategist Tobias Levkovich.
The indicator is called the Panic/Euphoria Model or the Other PE.
Each year, Levkovich and his colleagues sort through 60 indicators of market sentiment. They pick the eight with the best predictive records over the past 18 years and mold them into the Panic/Euphoria Model.
By doing this, Citigroup aims to address a common shortcoming with psychological indicators: A particular gauge may spot market tops or bottoms for a while, then stop working.
The model's current sentiment indicators are:
• Margin debt.
• Nasdaq volume as a percentage of NYSE volume.
• Retail money flows
• Put/call ratio.
• CRB futures index.
• Gasoline prices.
• Short interest ratio between public and NYSE member firms.
• The average between the Investors Intelligence and American Association of Individual Investors.
"It's dangerous to rely on just one factor," Levkovich said.
The weekly composite indicator hit a low of -0.87 on May 6, just as the market was starting a rally that would last until August. It bottomed again at -0.83 on Nov. 4, right after the market moved decisively higher, reconfirming the current rally.
The lowest reading ever was -0.88 on July 15, 1994, just before the start of a huge bull market.
Levkovich won't give away many details of how the indicator is constructed except to say that five of the eight components are contributing to the buy signal.
It's not hard to identify some of them.
Key Bullish Levels Triggered
The put/call ratio hit 1.07 on Oct. 12 and 13, just as the market was hitting bottom. Readings over 1.0 occur when investors are buying more bearish puts than bullish call options, which tends to happen near intermediate market bottoms. It hit 1.18 on Oct. 14, 2004, just as a year-end rally was getting under way, and 1.22 this year on April 15, days before the start of a rally.
Nasdaq volume has also been moderate as a percentage of NYSE volume. When investors feel confident, they're more likely to trade in speculative Nasdaq names. When they're scared, they tend to stick with stable NYSE stocks.
The CRB futures index, a measure of the prices of a basket of commodities, and gasoline prices don't seem like psychological indicators at first glance. But Levkovich insists they are.
"When people are buying high prices at the pump, they feel kind of lousy," he said.
And rising commodity prices are a sign of a recovering economy, he added.
One perplexing sentiment indicator is the Investors Intelligence weekly poll of investment advisers. A staple of market watchers since 1963, the poll hasn't signaled a prolonged period of bearishness among newsletter writers since 1994. There hasn't been more bears than bulls since October 2002.
John Gray, Investors Intelligence editor, said he now considers a bullish reading when the spread between bulls and bears gets down to 12 or 15 percentage points. He says there's too many bulls when the number gets to 55% or 60%.
Its last low was Oct. 28, when there were 44.8% bulls and 29.2% bears. The current reading is 53.1% bulls and 29.1% bears.
Some popular sentiment indicators are absent from Levkovich's model, including the closely watched CBOE volatility index, known as the VIX. He says it's lost its predictive power because of professional hedging strategies and the increased use of exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, which decrease volatility.
Confirming Citigroup, another sentiment gauge, the State Street Investor Confidence Index, gave its lowest reading in October going back to 1998. The index has rebounded this month.
The State Street index seeks to track the movement of institutional money into and out of stocks. It shows that institutions are as subject to crowd psychology as anybody else.
The index's lowest reading until now was October 1998 when Russia defaulted on its debt and a big hedge fund collapsed, threatening some banks. But it was the exact right time to be ready to put money into the market.
But not everybody's sentiment index is flashing a big buy signal.
Tim Hayes maintains his own composite index for Ned Davis Research and it shows a moderate amount of optimism. It's a more short-term indicator that moved quickly from showing modest pessimism. It's given six buy and six sell signals since the end of 2003.
URL: http://investors.com/editorial/IBDArticles.asp?artsec=16&issue=20051125
B
If you end up reading my Epinions comment on the AIWA unit I bot, it had an AUX in port.
3rd party iPOD companies sell "transmitters" - wirelessly beaming out signals - you lock into a dead signal in the car or home. Saw it working - seemed to have some problems at home. Never a fan of that stuff as you will tend to get interference noise.
I believe Creative Labs had something about that too. The beauty with the cheapo CD player for the car, was that because it had an AUX-IN, every mp3 unit on the market can plug right into it. (the 3rd party Apple gear doesn't always move from one unit to another; akin to faceplates for cell phones, so bear that in mind).
I was looking at some iPOD gear a few months ago and came across the Bose iPOD SoundDock. A real beauty. Except they have a fatal flaw in my opinion. After you spend the big money, hope that they continue to offer inserts for future iPOD models, since there is no INPUT jack for any other unit (READ: Shuffle can't plug into it). When I asked technical support (yes I do go the extra mile) they came back with "we have no plans on offering any other method of connectivity". Great.
Another great site: http://www.ilounge.com/
Chitloads of reviews of everything iPOD. Even gadgets that would work on other non-Apple gear.
As I stated before without question the NANO is great for the glitz and you can get the 4GB model (most on the market today). However, if you end up getting a unit that uses SANDISK memory cards, your memory is unlimited.
(I read some really good "bad" stories about the Shuffle on epinions - people who wanted to move MP3 files had problems on PCs once they installed the iTUNES software. I heard cries of "don't install the iTUNES".)
To me the thought of going ANYWHERE and via the XP explorer moving files back and forth without adding software is just "fantastic".
At any rate, your impatient comment, would suggest that you should invest (that is what it is) in an iPOD. As for Quality? Epinions will tell you the poop. But I know for fact that the Nanos somehow are using a slightly different coating and is quite prone to scratches and many many many owners are up in arms.
(As you et al probably notice, to me features and value rate very high. Another review was my ASUS P4P800 MOBO - a "just right" MOBO. Nowadays I figure most things are made so crappy that I tend not to pay big money. I see zero value in carpeting my house with SONY gear - since if they are selling that stuff in WMT, how good can it be? Yet there are many that still believe.)
I prefer to know what I can do, than to be told what I should do.
John et al, Happy Holidays and Cheers!
B
lair Pronunciation Key (lâr)
n.
1. The den or dwelling of a wild animal.
2. A den or hideaway.
3. Obsolete. A resting place; a couch.
To all would be lurkers and regular readers of this great forum, one can only assume that I Sexton Osiris Blake (aka Son of a Bose SoundDock basher) is, in a word, quite obsolete.... in the Twilight Zone.
ED: GRUB: 808 State
iPODs work. Period. Won't dispute that.
Friend of mine (Apple everything), bot his step daughter a Shuttle. She wasn't in the room and I said to him the draw back is a lack of screen. He made his points and figured that wasn't such a high order item. She came in the room, he asked her, and she said "like ya.. that is such a big bummer!".
So assuming a prerequisite is "I must be able to see the name of the song I am playing" (as I believe almost every single Mp3 player has except the shuttle), and for me it actually is, then it will cost $249CA for an entry 2GB Nano. Period.
If John has a couple of daughters, a couple of years apart, my guess is he wants to buy them both one. I see every morning, 2 girls at the bus, one is Sexton Jr's age (7) and the other is 4 years older. The older one had to RE-TAKE swimming classes because the younger one wanted her in the class. One didn't get a Nintendo DS - last Christmas -- BOTH did.
So John has a choice to make.
(A) He wants it to work. PERIOD. He is willing/able to plop down $575CA for two MP3 players. No idea about their age and how responsible they are. I will take the high road and say I would be hard pressed to give my kid (early teens) a $300 electronic gadget that will go to school. I probably wouldn't sleep too well either thinking that one day it might be stolen.
(Cripes my heart races first thing when I go outside and I forgot to lock the door and the window was open all night - and it is a 9 year old POS Ford living in a highend neighborhood with a cop shop around the corner!) iPODS = Mustangs and other high-theft cars.
(B) He wants something that works. If the goal is to download music ($$) and load onto the MP3 player, yup he will have to do some homework. If he only wants to rip CDs and copy to the Mp3 player, that should be a no brainer. He can pick and choose any mp3 player he wants. He could get both daughters a similar unit - the older one could get 128MB and the younger one would get 64MB. In a couple of years, there will be cheaper, bigger, better units, and he could buy them new ones. (I am convinced, combined, buying those 4 mp3 players, would be cheaper (or tad more) than the 2 NANOS. Period). A $130 (if that) non-Apple MP3 player most likely will not get stolen and if lost/broken, it isn't such a huge expense.
I don't know anything about John except he posted a message and I responded. I even pointed out a NANO (of which failed the sniff test on virtually all my key points in an Good MP3 player BTW). (And lets forget about the "of course competition will try and copy and make units that appear to be feature-to-feature better than Apple" arguement. Apple's iPOD from generation 1 to today haven't changed all that much in the feature department. Still don't have a custom equalizer the last time I checked the NANO specs).
Disclaimer: I have never owned Apple stock. I do own an Apple ][+ and Apple //e clone of which both sit in my basement.
To Roni: I could go back to day 1 and talk about the PC v. Mac discussion we had. I care not. I am not sure why you seem to think I am an Apple basher. Unfortunately, very very very very few purchases are made without lots of homework on my part. Buying my utility fridge (basement) was a bloody ordeal!
YES, I typically make value oriented purchases. My brother (18yrs older than me) is into the glitz - latest things. Would instantly plop big money down for iPODS et al. Has several large screen TVs (HD >$3000). (My largest is a $179 Costco 24" TV). He also talks to investment advisers who tell him that, to protect our parent's nest egg (billions I am sure), we should get an life insurance plan for them and WE pay the policy. He hears me laugh saying "yeah I know about that, they do it all the time in the US because of the inheritance taxes; and guy our parents are north of 75 years old.. could they even get a policy? Are you for real?" At >50 years old he is only now maybe thinking about his retirement plans.
If I was making considerably more money (from investments) owning a MAC, Powerbook, iPOD etc would be a no brainer. Until then every decision is made based on needs and value. For me the iPOD stuff isn't something high on my list of required purchases (wife has another armoir ahead of that). I can't justfiy >$250 for an iPOD. Under $150, yes.
Everyone has their own choice to make. If John (sorry to put you on the spot mate) said "Blake what is the best Mp3 player - PRICE NO OBJECT". I would have said IPOD. Period. If value is a priority, then Apple is no way to go. If anyone thinks the single IPOD purchase is all they will make, think again. Looking at somewhere an additionaly $50-150 in accessories -- one of which is an actual working case to protect your original investment. If I pay $130 for a crappy MP3 player - it gets scratched, it drops, it stops working after a year - so what it was cheap to start with and I'll get something better. Higher priced items have to be treated better and that costs money.
I wish to say today:
(A) I love Apple as a company; wish them all the best; like seeing their new gadgets and gear; not all of them to me are hits and/or some features or "lack of" have something to be desired; but for glitz they rule. Find most of their stuff is overvalued. (gouge comes to mind).
They are in the fashion business - they TELL people what they want, and people love it. As such, you need to pay up to get the latest digs.. even if they aren't of good value.
(B) OT: Love Steve Jobs. Own all the Pixar Disney movies. Class "A" guy!
(C) AAPL? Congrats, doing well I see.
Remember what GG said "Don't get emotional over stock, it clouds judgement."
(BTW: I have a fact for you -- of the people I know that have "AN" iPOD, they have more than one iPOD. That will skew your 75% I think.)
BTW: We all should be focused on the results of Black Friday - did you see all the Al Qaeda terrorists trampling over people in the hope that they will be able to buy more cheap crappy Made in China crap from Walmart than the American capitalist dogs? Serious S**T!!!
Great discussion as usual. Now back to my lair..
Cheers mate!
B
Lets see how much of a black Friday we are gonna get...
John, on the MP3 players.. I can only offer my observations. In the end you need to decide what is important and what is available to you - along with cost and specs. epinions.com (I am bellyman) is a great place to start. You can go crazy on this stuff.
After reviewing quite a few units I am left with the following important specs:
(A) Removable battery. Req AA or AAA. Although not tested I would hope a 1.2V rechargeable NiMH batter would work well in those. Nowadays most electronic devices are "replaced" and not fixed. Apple can sell you a new battery after the internal dies, the price is about $50-100US. My feeling is - instead of buying fancy gadgets that recharge at home and in the car and at work, or on a trip, what is better than just having a few extra batteries available?
(B) Memory based - you have to figure out where you are going on this. For me, even a 512MB would be ok since my tastes change from week to week. I spend a great deal of time in front of my computer. With >600GB at my disposal, it is a perfect music/movie server. Something to go out with on a walk or in the car or at school - a memory based unit is good enough. If you want your daughters to have their entire collection (you know how much and base it on 128bit rate) you can judge if a memory based unit will be ample or if you require to move up to a harddrive.
I am against the HD units in general since they are obviously prone to be dropped and that probably will cause the drives to crash. Memory based are cheap and if your daughter loses them, it isn't a great fortune.
YES $/MB v $/GB - without a doubt the biggest iPOD is $/MB cheaper than most memory based units. But the crashing part is still there.
Some memory based units offer memory sticks.. so you could always buy those (at various $ and sizes).
(c) For Windows, it is best to ensure the device is considered as a MASS STORAGE DEVICE (MSD). In otherwords, if you are running XP, you just plug it in via USB2 and boom - it appears as a device in my computer. Then you just move the music over as needed. Most can hold other "files". So if your daughter has a Word document to be moved to/from a computer at school, this device would be perfect. Not all devices are MSDs. iRIVER offers something but hasn't formally offered this by default. Quite a few do.
(D) Durability. This is where most are weak. Samsung and iRIVER have a JOYSTICK - many on epinions have complained about this. San Disk offers a rather robust unit it appears. However it failed in category E. Unless you get them dirt cheap, these are the kinds of devices you would want to saddle Best Buy et al with an extended warranty.
(E) Resume. A simple bookmark feature. I play 2hour streams. Some when they go off forget to resume at the place where it last ended. My car has that in its CD player. Amazingly most DVD players don't even have this required feature.
The robust SanDisk was a solid winner but you had to go higher up (to a less reliable unit) to get this basic feature.
If your daughters are playing music - one ofs, I would say this is not a big requirement.
(E) Glitz. If this is your primary function, forget everything I said above and get yourself an iPOD. Apparently the NANOs are very scratch prone and I have already read about class action suits on it. Without a doubt the NANOs are the way to go.
My opinion is - most units should last quite a number of years. They all may suffer with the occasional button problem. But lets say the buttons are ok - you could be left with a drive crash or a dead battery. Hence changable batteries and memory based. (no iPOD NANO battery is not changeable)
They are many other features - like custom equalizers, recording options, playlists etc. These vary from unit to unit. Remember - these aren't WINAMP and, therefore, still lacking in robust features. Samsung and others offer more than just MP3 and WMA and AAC. OGG is good since it is a lossless compression system.
I think the greater concern might be having the units stolen (#1!) and/or lost. Hence you don't want to spend a lot.
My advice is check out the likes of Costco/Sams/Wal-mart first.
To get a quick feel. Costco's selection is poor but in Canada they do offer today a Sanyo 512MB (SANDISK sticks) unit - not much info on those - but they use a simple pad, removable battery, MSD etc. Like $120CDN. (I choose this because of their liberal return policy - buy 2 .. try one as soon as you get it - don't like it return both). Check out Bestbuy.CA or FutureShop.com. If you are in the US, Walmart has CHITloads of Mp3 players including iPOD.
For most widdle girls 512MB is more than plenty. 256MB might be sufficient too. Again use 128 as the bit rate since most songs below that number tend to sound tinny. WMV has better compression so the files can be smaller.
OT: Wal-mart is entering the lucrative warranty extension market. Thats where the electronic stores actually make their money. And today in the US they are matching all competitor ads. The CEO stated he doesn't care if companies go bankrupt - its do or die for WMT.
For everyone reading this article.. here is a Samsung 1GB unit (YP-C1Z). Its new - seems to have a PAD instead of a joystick. The specs are in a word, what I would expect in a good MP3 unit. These specs seem to be across most Samsung units (again the buttons/pad/joystick) is where durability questions are raised.
http://www.samsung.com/ca/products/digitalaudioproducts/digitalmediaplayer/yp_c1zxac.asp?page=Specif...
- Battery; Memory based; Resume; MSD; FM tuner; Customizable Equalizer; Voice Recording; OGG: not to mention speced 42 HOURS on a single AA battery.
Either this helps you John to figure what you want.. or perhaps it helps you know what NOT to get.
As for me, have been focusing on getting my ass in gear. Not much reading on SI or iHUB. Check in every so often for messages. Still lost.. but feel a whole lot better!
Cheers and Happy Holidays!
Blake
Also keep in mind, it goes back to my arbitrage questions I had before. The SEC charges tax on the sale of securities (never been huge for me since I never traded large volumes). But a factor nonetheless.
So a strategy would be to buy on the US market; then assuming a profit on the stock, and the US$ v. CDN$ is in your favor on the sell side, you would sell on the TSE - avoiding the SEC tax. (Of course LARGE CAPs).
(assuming the currency is in your favor; it makes sense that the SEC tax is the evil doer).
That would bring up a problem with trading using the likes of Ameritrade exclusively. That strategy can only work with a broker that can deal with both sides. Well I can see dabbling with a number of brokers, and definitely have my sights on the US-CAN style of arbitrage trades.
Wot me laughing? Very sad over the past two weeks performance. Somehow I've seen these levels before. Time to go into hiding and turn my trading life around for good..
Alexander Elder
A losing trader is in denial. His equity is shrinking, but he continues to jump into trades without analyzing what is going wrong. He keeps switching between markets the way an alcoholic switches between whiskey and cheap wine. An amateur whose mind isn't strong enough to accept a small loss will eventually take the mother of all losses. A gaping hole in a trading account hurts self-esteem. A single huge loss or a series of bad losses smash a trader against his rock bottom. Most beginners collapse and wash out. The lifetime of an average speculator is measured in months, not years.
Those who survive fall into two groups. Some return to their old ways, just like alcoholics crawl into a bar after surviving a bout of delirium. They toss more money into their accounts and become customers of vendors who sell magical trading systems. They continue to gamble, only now their hands shake from the anxiety and fear when they try to pull the trigger.
A minority of traders that hit rock bottom decide to change. Recovery is a slow and solitary process. Charles Mackay, the author of one of the best books on crowd psychology, wrote almost two centuries ago that men go mad in crowds, but come to their senses slowly, and one by one.
..Food for thought indeed!
Can't find my DVD Wall Street (cripes, do I have to download that blasted thing? I BOT IT!). Well, watching the next best thing right now.. The Sting. Oh the life of a grifter.
Gordon Gekko [Wall Street]
The key to the game is your capital ... without it you can't piss in the tall weeds with the big dogs.
(That's Peter Lynch's angle wrt the use of options)
On Doyle Lonnegan [The Sting]:
The croupier at Gilman's says he never plays anything he can't win.
(Ok, Lynch again - doesn't invest in something he doesn't understand. He understands Donuts (Dunkin Donuts) but nothing about computer chips.)
B ya'all...
"deafening". Huh?
Zero enjoyment here.. but noticed that SU (TSX/NYSE) - lowest range was last Friday (my proxy)- looked like some recovery was going on - well about 10 minutes ago. XOM up too. Trusts are coming back slightly.
As for hard of hearing.. going out fridge hunting - my son & I within an hour will be listening to beautiful classical whilst driving..
Chuckles and Cheers all-round!
B
thanks for the list.. first I reviewed was WOOF (interestingly enough) and it looked good.
See PFE today? Somehow they must have investments in energy.. must have...
B
me three...
CDE - was stopped out ($3.83). Ok with that.
Need to get more active in the weeding more - hit hard with the trusts lately. Recovered nicely, if we can call it that, today.
The fault on the CDE I made - after I bot, it went up but then came down and for a couple of days churned - that should have been my out (not moving up.. weak.. get out; always can get back in if it starts up again strongly).
I want to get in a position to challenge my holdings - "is this the best security I can rent today?" Sort of like Kingsfield (Paperchase) to his students -- asking questions.. answers for those questions.. more questions from those answers.. and so on..
Anyways.. cheers all!
B
(JIBJAB.COM has a new addition - against Big Box Mart (aka WMT) - though I wasn't happy with a cookie system they used - once you saw it the first time it forced you to send a note to someone else to see it - so you may want to shut off cookies foist)
EDIT: But of course extra cheers for my 69 grub.. on my 12'x12'..
Not that I am an expert, or that "Sex" is in my first name, but sure lot of, ahem, European adult movies that involve cars. (LOL!)
Guy is driving down the highway at 120Km/h.
As a women speeds by at 140Km/h, she almost cuts him off!
He notices that she is putting her make up on while she is speeding down the highway!
"Cripes," he said as he was telling his buddies the story, "I almost dropped my newspaper!"
From what I have seen/heard in the US, the campaign on cells seems to be "you cannot use your cell unless you have a headset". To me that is misguided. The mere act of ringing is a distraction. Most can't walk and chew gum, and are barely competent to drive a car - now they have to not only drive but engage in a phone call. To me, cell use in a car, period, should be banned. And to take it further, I strongly believe that the cops/insurance companies (like Columbo) should ALWAYS run a check to see if you were involved in any communications just before an accident. Problem enough driving down the street at 40-60Km/h watching a young thang walking down the street!
Here in TO I think Cineplex has plans to put up a huge LCD billboard - promoting movies I think. Along the highway no less! To me I see, on a business side, zero value add. Then there are the accidents which will obviously occur.
Cell or booth, one must chose.
(I'm a Canuck EH? What is a booth?)
Sounds like a Benny Hill joke...
She says "Tit for tat."
Benny replies "Tat."
B
Sex, iPODs and iRoni..
From the Grab & Maul this past Saturday, they found that if you type "SEX" in Google (its Bizzaro world equivalent is Booble) you get roughly 214M hits (as of today thats 189M).
If you type "IPOD", you get 172M hits (today thats 161M).
So IPOD has only about 16-20% LESS hits than the world's favorite activity.
Have to hand it to Apple - not only can I drive while watching a video, I am sure iPODS, after Cells, will be the next thing banned while driving.
At any rate, takes Porn-on-the-Go to a new level alright..
Still think the Apple iBrator was one of the funniest spoofs of all time..
http://www.flamingmailbox.com/maccomedy/movies/ibrator.html
Feel different
iBlake
Searching for the Holy Grail (and Dealing with Losses)
Ed: He took a page from Van Tharp's book
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/whats_new/whats_new_archives/2005-10-11.htm#HolyGrail
Within page is a link to "Money Management and the 2% Rule".
(Again Van Tharp.. but Alexander Elder also uses a similar logic)
B
EDIT: Elder has an additional 6% loss maximum over a month.
I use to enjoy playing those stocks.. but BIG JUICY BUTT.. then I ran into some, er, situations that turned me off.
My portfolio can only take so many 25 and 100 for 1 consolidations. I have one $0.14 stock - haven't filed their returns and thus halted for years. Yet the diamond reports are still coming out! Anyways good luck!
B
Up 13% today to .21 ...
Lets hope they aren't linked to MR in any way..
Well I sold 2/3 of it. I could cry in my Heineken that I sold a bunch previously but the +25% could have easily been -25%. Happy smile is all I will get from this (unless it goes to $20!!!).
Some have faith.. some have little faith.. some have zero faith. I have less than zero faith in any of this junk. Take what I can.
Cheers to us all then!
B