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DM, great to see you're still hanging in there trying to keep the balance between fact & fiction from an operational perspective, I've been out of the loop for a month and missed all the banter.
IMHO irrespective of some current sentiments regarding the company and it's progress, production equates to revenue and revenue is what determines the success or failure of any company. Unfortunately for many investors true success does not happen over night and there's a lot of hard work involved. It's always easy to be critical sitting on the fence when you're only focus is on the end game. There's always going to be high risk investing in company's at this level, I would be much more uncomfortable if they had launched a big flowery marketing campaign stating high speculated production rates and unrealistic potential revenues. If you step back and actually look at the time line and what they have accomplished just from the beginning of the year it's pretty impressive. For a small independent company working off minimal investment capital for cash flow they've covered a lot of ground. If/when these last few hurtles are out of the way it will put an entirely different perspective on things.
Has anyone heard any rumors regarding the status of the new processing equipment mobilization?
"scuba" that's the way I read it as well, with all the speculated numbers thrown out there currently I was waiting for accurate estimates from the company to be released.
For them to have an additional 40t of concentrate by the end of June with a recovery rate of 100 lbs/1 ton of feed, they would need to be producing raw material at +- 60t/hr. The 3 grams of visible free gold recovery stated in their PR is from the raw feed which would put current free gold recovery much high than estimations. I don't want to make any speculated guesses on actual recovery numbers with out more confirmed information. But the evidence is indisputable that "sney" IS producing tangible revenue and the initial numbers could catch many people off guard. It's all good!
Bazza
Where are all the children workers?
"mj"
Any first hand information like this would be exactly what SNEY needs to help restore any confidence possibly damaged from recent misinformation’s and bashing. Everyone has been waiting on razor blades for the filings submission and company up list, and rightly so! But (JMHO) there has been far too much emphasis placed on it at this stage in the game. Confirmation of current operations correlating with the recent company PR’s would be very valuable, regardless if deemed unofficial or not.
Just thinking out loud, but would there be any value contacting Steve Parent or someone else in the management team giving them a heads up on the pending arrival of your friends in SL? They may have fairly tight security in place until their secure processing facility is operational, it may be difficult for anyone outside the loop to obtain any tangible insight to the operation other than bar gossip and rumors. I would think the company’s management team, given notification would welcome any persons officially representing a shareholders interest. In my mind it would also them curb possible misinformation being leaking out, boosting positive sentiment in the company.
As I said before, this is only me thinking out loud (after a sunny Sunday & ice cold beer) and may not be viable.
Regards
Bazza
Don't forget their plan to fast track the evaluation phase on their Ghana concession utilizing existing assets acquired from the Allied acquisition. They already have all the licenses in place and their leases are in a very prolific area, adjacent to a large scale operational mine.
In my opinion there is a key argument that can be derived from the latest operational PR. If you take the most conservative speculation of recovery estimates posted on this board from a single operational dredge, cut that number in half (startup pains and unanticipated problems) and the estimated gross revenue potential from free gold alone is impressive for any Jr. Mining Company initially starting up. Expansion and recovery optimization will happen over time regardless but the production values from one single dredge are more than adequate to support current operational costs, and they are in production. With the funding the company has secured, once over the filings hump and CE has been removed they should be able to rapidly expand operations.
My interpretation is the company may be further along than suspected. Dredging operations on the river could be halted as early as mid July from rising water levels; this is only 1 ½ to 2 months out! The PR clearly states they are currently putting together a processing facility and will start recovery operations in the off-season.
In this time frame any new equipment, even if only for free gold separation to be mobilized, set up and operational is unrealistic unless already in transit or is being sourced locally. I don’t believe Management would risk damaging investor confidence any more than it already has with false statements. Retail investment may be a small part of the equation but it is an essential one nonetheless.
Excerpt from 05/24/11 PR - Updating Current Dredging Operations
"It is great to be in operation on the Pampana and to have our testing from the past 2 years begin to bear fruit. We are putting a secure processing facility together near our operations. This is where we bring the recovered concentrates. This is also where we will be setting up our recovery operation which will start up once the operating season is over. In the meantime, we are dedicated to producing as much black sand concentrate as possible during the operating season. We are also working on a land based operating plan to keep operations going during the winter season."
Excerpt from Sunergy Web Site: AMS Concession Report “September 2010”
“The climate is a wet tropical monsoon, with a single wet season each year. The average annual rainfall is about 2,500 centimeters. The greater part of this rain falls in the wet season, from mid-May to mid-November. The wettest month is usually August, but rivers attain maximum discharge at their lowest in March and April, and begin to increase in May. Ground water levels do not rise significantly until late July.”
One other item that seems to have lost focus is their planned immediate mobilization of the smaller existing dredge units acquired from the Allied acquisition into Ghana.
Thanks DM, that's exactly what I was looking for! One of the concerns I was all the hype being built on initial revenue potential generated from REE rich "Black Sand". If speculated gold and diamond levels are remotely accurate this alone should drive the pps up but as fickle as these penny plays are. REE production has moved to the fore front of everyone focus, and an unexpected delay in commercial revenue capture from REE material could have a negative effect initially opening the door for easier manipulation.
Having the Chinese on the ground is great news! With the time line so far out for additional processing facilities outside China being operational, I have no doubt the Chinese will try keeping control of the market while they still maintain an advantage. How did the company you were previously involved with offload the REE material they produced or was it even cost effective at previous market prices?
Bazza
DM: your informative posts are much appreciated, they allow anyone truly interested in gambling on the success of this company to build a better investment risk assessment not having prior knowledge of the area. Some of the operational hurtles any company faces (Internationally registered) attempting an operation in this area can dramatically affect success & failure if management is not prepared. From the information available, SNEY looks to have a better than average chance of success if all the pieces come together. As you’ve stated there are many variables if not handled correctly that could derail even the best-laid plan.
My question is on REE & REM production in the region, gold & diamonds have had a well-established market platform in this part of the World for many years but not these other elements. From your experience in the area do you see any potential roadblocks commercially moving large quantities of REE baring material? Is there any level of infrastructure in place to commercially market the raw material for export and final processing? I believe if SNEY can show commercial viability many of the other Operators will jump on the bandwagon, potentially justifying a local processing facility but the reality of this would be a long way out. Long term this could be a game changer for many companies operating in the area but realistically what do you feel the revenue impact will be initially?
Bazza
“chloe”
Normally I wouldn’t waste my time replying to mindless drivel! I’m in complete support of freedom of speech and open to constructive criticism, this is what separates us from the rest of the World. But your comments have neither been constructive nor added intelligent value to this board, your motives are obviously subversive and not human rights related. Every one is entitled to there own opinion but unless you can post a creditable argument please stop wasting everyone’s time!
Thanks coachum, interesting days ahead!
Sagan, I’ve been running the ihub app on my ipad for a few weeks now and it has worked brilliant for me so far! I haven’t accessed the Level 2 function yet and it is still missing a few bits and pieces (like some graphic’s support) but I think they are working on that. For my needs it is a great mobile platform if you’re traveling and can’t access your computer.
Hope this helps!
Bazza
My only regret is that I was a little impetuous and topped up to soon; I didn’t expect the share price to fall that much either. The thought of dumping some and buying back in has crossed my mind as well but I worry that if/when it does go you might have a tough time regaining your original position and could lose ground. From the way recent news updates have been handled on filings and operational status I believe management has a long-term plan in place.
I don’t think they would have released the latest PR’s unless it fit strategically, with bigger news to follow that will tie it all together. My suspicion is we should see something dramatic in less than two weeks at the out side; anything longer could potentially damage investor confidence and stall momentum. I could be completely out to lunch on this but having put a few business/development plans together myself it fits the model.
Being a relative novice, in no way a seasoned penny stock player as many of you seem on this board I must be missing key variables in the last two PR’s? Looking at it from a business perspective, in my opinion this is very positive, at least initially. As stated in a previous post, it would be very difficult for the company to secure adequate financing to implement any sort of aggressive strategic expansion model confidently.
The way I read this is the warrant execution is tiered such that it protects the expansion momentum once committed. Any unexpected pitfalls encountered during the initial growth stages can potentially cripple any small company if insufficient funds are available to cover any unbudgeted cost if incurred. Trying to startup operations in areas like West Africa increases the risk substantially. The fact that initial short term financing secured is minimal for their potential scope of operation, and with a 90-180 day re-payment option (non-penalty clause assumed) is very positive. My interpretation is initial production results are as anticipated or better giving management confidence to generate enough immediate revenue to fund expansion. Providing everything stays on track, the additional warrant’s that are in place have been secured as a backup if necessary. With no additional debt load accrued, if they can generate and sustain adequate revenue from their initial production of three dredges this puts the company in an extremely strong position moving forward.
I understand any sort of dilution by a company is typically perceived negatively, but in reality even if all warrants were executed would that bring their O/S float to an exorbitant amount for a company at this stage of evolution? I see a lot of other penny plays out there with O/S substantially higher and a fraction of the possibilities Sunergy Inc. has. Aside from their initial 2009 10-K filing debacle, having the confidence to release latest updates knowing fully the risks of negative interpretation and potential effect it could have on share price gives me an additional degree of faith in the company.
If any of my assumptions hold validity, this should increase shareholder value not decrease it in a much shorter time frame, with sustainability. Granted this is not advantageous for anyone looking to turn over quick profits, but if the Planet’s are in alignment and “elcheepo’s” possum sales are up this could be some of the best PR to date for the overall picture of the company. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if news is released in the very near future that will catch many off guard.
I have big shoulders so if of my comments or assumptions are completely naïve or inaccurate I welcome any constructive criticism. In no way am I blindly following or in love with this stock, I won’t hesitate to dump if I feel something’s wrong. Sorry for the long winded post but I still feel very strong toward this company.
Agreed with the speculative statement, the original test numbers reflect spot samples and a rudimentary separation procedure to establish the estimated commercial value extracted from a set volume of raw material. Although initial numbers of recoverable material were amended higher, I would suspect they are still on the conservative side. From the way SNEY management has been handling news releases to this point, if this was a scam pump & dump stock I would have expected production releases pumped out before now to push the share prices up.
There are so may unknown variables and issues involved initially starting up a project like this. To have an accurate assessment on true production output potential they will have to determine optimal operational procedures first for the dredging systems establishing their baseline. These systems were custom designed and built for this specific purpose, but have never been tested in sustained operations or in this area until now. If management gets over zealous and releases production numbers before establishing confirmed sustainability, investor confidence would wane rapidly if the production numbers dropped. From the fact that there has not been any recent news regarding production rates not even rumors, I think we all could presently shocked at the actual numbers when released. Of course this could easily go the other way as well but all indicators are pointing to the positive currently.
After seeing how rapidly the sentiment in the company degraded over the SEC filings I hope every one has a little patience with initial production news being released. It could take a bit more time than some people are anticipating, but this is all only speculation and opinion on my part.
This is an interesting article if anyone is interested, if the production levels prove cost effective SNEY could be sitting it a very good position with production already initiated.
http://www.raremetalblog.com/2011/05/rare-earth-supply-deficit-peaking.html
What, why waste money on food?
You’re correct, you can go to bed in 100% stability and wake up in 100% chaos! SL looks to be fully focused on getting their country back on its feet and that go’s a long way for companies willing to bring in technology and expertise. If SNEY can get through any unexpected problems during the initial startup phase without any catastrophic train wreaks and the country’s stability maintains status quo they should have a reasonably stable foundation to work from. With this the company should be able to weather certain levels of internal upheaval within the country short term. Regardless of the leader in power they will not want to jeopardize their revenue generation mechanism within the country.
Granted this area has a proven track record for explosive volatility but there aren’t many safe haven areas left Globally with that high risk vs. reward ratio where small upstart companies can roll the dice. That’s what makes SNEY so intriguing; they claimed to have started initial production on their SL project and hold mining concessions in Ghana surrounded by proven leases currently operational. The risk vs. reward investing at this point is worth the gamble, with all the hype generated in the last few weeks the right positive PR will send it up quickly.
West Africa can be one of the most lucrative areas in the world to operate out of, there is more untapped wealth in this area than anyone can imagine. But regardless of how it looks on surface standard business models don’t usually work unless you are a huge multi-national with a big budget. My biggest concern is the focus on REE & REM, gold and diamond production should not be much of an issue. All of West Africa has been dealing with both these commodities commercially for many years; the market is fairly well regulated and supported. I have very little knowledge regarding the other elements. Does the raw material (Black Sand) have to be exported out for processing else where, and if so where? Can the current infrastructure in SL support the moving and storage of raw material prior to export?
I’m sure Sunergy has had their business strategy all mapped out or they wouldn’t have pumped the REE side of their production so early. But having huge stockpiles of valuable Black Sand with no efficient way to get it to the commercial market doesn’t increase company revenue. Please don’t get me wrong, this is not meant to be a negative view, if the sands are that rich with these elements and the demand is as strong as it seems they will be able to move the product. It’s just how long will it take to build an infrastructure to support it (if needed) and will it be cost effective?
This is one of the best boards I’ve followed for some time and I appreciate the constructive criticisms TR posts. He helps keep a realistic view on the situation adding balance, playing in the Pink’s is not for the weak of heart. That said SNEY is one of the most exciting plays to come along in awhile, the potential up lift is staggering especially with the company beginning the production phase of the project. Regardless of the financial results filed the company has minimal debt load currently and if the initial production results are favorable (and accurate) this opens the door for serious outside investment and rapid expansion.
One point I’d like to share with anyone following SNEY is not to get discouraged on the time line releasing any initial results. I have had a fair amount of operational experience in the W African region, albeit a different industry but faced many of the same problems Sunergy will be going through at the moment. It will take time to establish a solid baseline and accurate production output, and remember this is the Third World! Logistics and operational efficiency are not an easy task to maintain especially on a startup operation. In my opinion the lack of any tangible PR up to this point is a good sign. The worst thing that happened recently is statements released by the company IR quoting definitive time lines to appease or boost investor sentiment. Not follow through or meeting these deadlines has not helped build investor confidence.
I’ve watched a number of penny plays with Jr. mining companies recently that have skyrocketed from penny or sub-penny levels to $1+ only to fall off the cliff and crash into oblivion. There was nothing to substantiate the stock valuation except a very expensive well organized promotional pump. If SNEY is a legitimate play (which I believe it is) it is in the company’s best interest to keep a tight control on any news releases regardless of it is delayed, as long as they are accurate. This is only my opinion and please take it for what it is.
elcheepo – is that possum still on the market?
I’ve been in SNEY for some time and believe this company has potential of building into something substantial, providing they can weather the initial turbulence developing a stable foundation to build and evolve from. Since with added value of REE & REM being identified, I have a couple questions for my own education if anyone can help.
1. Regardless of how rich the black sands are with REE & REM, is this area capable of supporting the logistics moving and the storage that may be required for large volumes of unprocessed material? I know nothing about processing requirements extracting or separating target elements for commercial use, but I’m assuming that the raw material would have to be exported out for process, at least in the near term.
2. What effect will rainy season have on movement between key support/supply centers and the operations site? If I understand correctly with the custom design of these dredging systems, production output should not be affected during the wet season regardless of higher water levels. Will the raw material (black sand) have be stock piled until the end of rainy season for transportation?
Thanks for the info cork, I’ve also come across these market values stated for REE since China changed their export policy. There has been a lot of hype recently focused on West Africa potentially capable of supporting a percentage of the market demand. Regardless of how rich the black sand is with these elements, is this area capable of supporting the logistics moving and the storage that may be required for large volumes of unprocessed material? I know nothing about processing requirements to extract or separate target elements for commercial use, but I’m assuming that the raw material would have to be exported out, at least in the near term.
Does anyone know if they have evaluated potential REE recovery from any of these sites?