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But if revenues increase, as they should, the amount of capex will also increase.
Is that sufficient for appreciation?
Some hope here.
Check out the last section, More Fiber to Homes, of this article.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ibd/030924/tech01_1.html
A clip from an article posted in a message on Yahoo.
Holds some hope.
The inevitable result is a cut in capex. Verizon expects 2003 capital expenditures of $12 billion to $12.5 billion, a decline of $1 billion from the high end of its previous guidance of $12.5 billion to $13.5 billion.
Seidenberg says the company will move forward on its RFP for a fiber buildout next year, but with caution. “We will reallocate where we have to… We are waiting to see what the suppliers tell us… about issues of electronics and support systems that go with it." (See Fiber Surprise in FCC Rules? and Vendors Await FTTP Shortlist.)
Not encouraging here.
http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/030924/1039000510_1.html
I had seen that article. I thought it was quite positive. 2004 is almost here.
Verizon's news is troubling. I'm concerned their situation is not atypical.
I could see a good end of annual 2003 for JDSU (see uppandown's message), followed in January by a dismal outlook for 2004.
Welcome, uppandown.
That's my alias on Yahoo. Should probably change to this one.
See message from JDSU investor relations below. Any way to tell if Nortel purchases have met the requirements? Could mean large end-of-year order from Nortel.
As you know, in fiscal 2001, the Company completed the sale of its Zurich, Switzerland subsidiary to Nortel, one of the Company’s significant customers, for 66 million shares of Nortel common stock valued at $1,953 million. In addition, we may receive up to an additional $500 million in Nortel common stock to the extent Nortel purchases do not meet certain levels under new and existing programs through December 31, 2003, which is the second quarter of our 2004 fiscal year. We will report on the status of this agreement when we report on the quarter in our press release and conference call and/or in our Form 10-Q.
Do you have a link to the report?
Encouraging. I would guess one of his mandates is to increase the stock price, which is fine with me.
I listened to the CC. I'm concerned that those two quarters could turn into four, then six, then eight.
I think most people heard only two things:
1. Declining revenue
2. "Few signs of a robust recovery in near term"
But the long term sounds better. Some things I heard:
o RFPs by RBOCs for fiber to home (but no meaningful revenue till 2005, but the revenue is a matter of "when" not "if.")
o Design win points for addtional $24 million additional business over next two years
o Trend for system providers to outsource hardware development, which represents new market for JDSU to make card-level and rack-mounted products. Recently secured several card-level opportunities with system providers.
I suppose a shakeout ultimately could be good for JDSU. They've got plenty of cash, so they should be able to hang on or change.
But it feels like that business will never turn around.
The only positive thing I can find is the fact that they're reducing expenses and lowering their breakeven point.
But they say they'll need $200 million in second quarter (fiscal 2004) to break even. That will require about a 30% increase quarterly from their projected first quarter revenues of $145 million.
Their projected breakeven of $170 million in fourth quarter is much better, but even that requires increased revenue. Looks to me like this company won't break even till this time next year.
Which I'm guessing means the stock is dead for 2-4 quarters.
I can deal with that, but what's going to turn revenue around?
Getting clobbered in after hours.
Anyone have comments on the recent earnings?
Numbers looked okay, but guidance was disheartening.
Anyone see anything encouraging for JDSU?
The acquisition may be a positive sign. If their confident enought to go shopping for other companies, maybe they've turned the corner and are back on the offensive, building for the future.
Their cash position is strong. That's very reassurring, but they will have to have the products when people start buying again. Their research dollars are down. Maybe the acquisition helps get them ready for the rebound.
The motives of brokers may have nothing to do with reality or honesty.
And trying to be somewhat fair, don't brokers pay more attention to the movement and expectations of stock prices than company fundamentals?
If JDSU were to rocket upward, I'm guessing all those "sells" would become "strong buys."
I don't trust or value brokerage ratings, but I know people will follow them.
I'm just hoping JDSU doesn't do something fatal. This acquisition concerns me, because didn't they over do it before on acquisitions?
Man, this is when I need community. Any honest commentary about the outlook appreciated.
Hello, iHub users.
Any predictions re: last quarter's results?