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Holding up pretty well considering the offering..
You hang in there Vid .... With your time horizon you'll be ALRiGHT
If they survive.. and remain independent..I would not be too surprised to see it over $20.00...Years off..but ..113 is still viable.. Iclusig should survive ...just look at all those patients on it over 3 years...and perhaps these problems make the Lab's future molecules even more refined ..Chin Up..:o)
Was just a DREAM....that's all....Just a Dream.....:o)
Am I right to assume that the old guard who lost their shirts on Ariad recently have given information to lawyers currently pursuing legal action..If so ...any advice on what attorney has an inside track as lead counsel...Thanks...
To all my friends on the board...This will be my last transmission...This Dream is Over for Me.....But I want to give heartfelt thanks to all the folks who have helped me along the way..Saying prayers for all of you..please return the favor if you are so inclined....Wiped Out....Off to Find Another Dream....:0)
Doubt any offers forthcoming for Ariad whiles't we run up to U.S. Default...:o).....
Are you sticking with your $16.25.....Given today's action I will give you a mulligan...We have already blown through my $17.00 prediction...although technically we may be right there at the close...:o)
Hey Vid --Interesting discussion on price this morning...pretty shocking though that it hit all of our price points in same day....:o)...Biotech Investing Is NUTS...:o)
We probably need a resolution in Washington .... before selling pressure is mitigated....Hopefully Soon...Goldman shorting operation taking advantage of the situation...
I think you suggested we would be in for a dip sometime before ASH...Maybe this is it...Buying Opportunities ....:o)
WE should survey the board....on LOWEST PRICE WE SEE through resolution of the debt fight...I'd say 17.00 $....
If today's action is any evidence... biggest headwind facing Ariad Stock...is Washington.. discussing its impact on the stock should/be within the TOS...imho
Concurrence.....Hope all is well BW...:0)
Can you elaborate with details of the... "set up"..?
Get the sense from HB's recent comments...that given intense competition for getting to the known target, (as they are discovered), with the most potent molecule and getting there first...that Ariad is not necessarily advantaged by exposing their hand too soon....But I must confess...like you...I am eagerly awaiting next molecule...:o)
Jess- imagine how attractive the ARIAD "Discovery-Engine" is becoming over time....If 113 continues to develop toward best in class...folks are going to start anticipating the 3rd molecule with increasing excitement...ONXX just sold for $10 Billion....Ariad is heading for bigger markets than Onxx..imho..
Merck may be positioning for a R&D Acquisition: CEO announced significant downsizing in R&D citing problems getting drugs accepted by the FDA--(Rida)...Some over at Merck know a lot about ARIAD...
One of my all time favorite boomers...:o)
Following the invention of... Ponatinib/Iclusig...with the invention of 113....Is a hell of an achievement ...for the little company up in Boston...Congrats to the docs and the patients..
"Tim addressed the BIC question. He said we are BIC as of now. Chugai data is based on Japanese population only and their brain data is incomplete".....
.....AND.....in an apples to apples comparison Ariads drug 113 has a 65% Real Response Rate and Roche is at 40%....Unless you think they are going to run a North American Study which far outperforms their Japanese Trial...Ariads 113 may very well be First In Class and First To Market for ALK..ROS1...
Ariad's efficacy data uses Confirmed Complete and Partial responses to generate a overall response rate at 65%....
Chugai/Roche - using the same criteria results in a 40% response rate...Note: Chugai built a 59% response rate by including 7 unconfirmed responses and 11 patients with stable disease...
Vid check out the Chugai/Roche data....They don't measure up...Maybe that's what Goldman knew..
100 % Response in Treatment Naive ALK...including a complete response.....80% of patients with Brain Mets responding with duration....113 still in the hunt for BIC with Chugai/Roche---Brain Mets likely to be a key factor in determining Best in Class...
113 has an 80% response rate in Brain Mets...this ..after doubling the evaluable patients from last report...
Good to hear your voice IIIman.....hope you're doing well....:o)
Boy you sure are raising your level of rhetoric ...You never mention what these drugs are doing for patients...like what they're doing for patients is not a relevant factor in the stock price going forward...and I'm talking 6-18 months.....I mean...why don't you consider Ariad a good long trade at the current levels looking out say over the next 6-18 mos of trial data and Iclusig revenue development....??
Evidence that 113 is well tolerated... and quite potent... is consistent in both ..trial data and anecdotal reports of patients....It seems very likely from the data already known.. that 113 will be approved and go on to help a lot of patients suffering with NSCLC with ALK and ROS1 markers... That's this lonesome retailers thesis anyhow....o)
Are you long the stock?
Anybody know the definition of Unconfirmed Response..as outlined in the AZN press release..??
That'd be a home run...(especially the EGFR part)... and would likely... (imho)...result in appreciation well over 10%....I'm not even going to -Dream - it turns out that good..
It'll soon be clear that..ICLUSIG.. was just the beginning!
Understanding that "Real News" moves price ... is not mutually exclusive from "Manipulation" moves price....As an investor you better be very aware of ALL of it...Best of Luck...:o)
So you're OK with it....as long as the illegal acts...are spread out proportionally.....??
Article Title--Jim Cramer Shorting Stocks, Manipulating Markets, Saying The SEC Doesn't Understand
In light of the current economic crisis, and with the hullabaloo ignited recently by Jon Stewart over the accuracy of CNBC's reporting, we thought it might be useful to revisit this shocking interview Jim Cramer gave to TheStreet.com's Aaron Task.
In it, the host of Mad Money says he regularly manipulated the market when he ran his hedge fund. He calls it "a fun game, and it's a lucrative game." He suggests all hedge fund managers do the same. "No one else in the world would ever admit that, but I could care. I am not going to say it on TV," he quips in the video.
He also calls Wall Street Journal reporters "bozos" and says behaving illegally is okay because the SEC doesn't understand it anyway.
Here are some gems:
-On manipulating the market: "A lot of times when I was short at my hedge fund, and I was positioned short, meaning I needed it down, I would create a level of activity before hand that could drive the futures,"
-On falsely creating the impression a stock is down (what he calls "fomenting"): "You can't foment. That's a violation... But you do it anyway because the SEC doesn't understand it." He adds, "When you have six days and your company may be in doubt because you are down, I think it is really important to foment."
-On the truth: "What's important when you are in that hedge fund mode is to not be doing anything that is remotely truthful, because the truth is so against your view - it is important to create a new truth to develop a fiction," Cramer advises. "You can't take any chances."
Hard to believe that video has only 38,000 hits...
It's not about Cramer....He was just stupid enough to say it on video...Probably why he no longer runs a hedge fund...
By the way..that interview is on YouTube and probably worth a look if you are a doubter....As with every walk of life...there are people in the market...ever met anyone who would screw there own family to get ahead...well...some of them are market players...
Manipulation is actually quite common--Those who think not must not be bothering to look into it...
I found the following with one google query...:If after reading...you still don't believe..well then...we should probably just drop the subject... :
"Market Manipulation is a fact" and a link to Jim Cramer's Wikepedia where you can find the following excerpt-
"In March 2007, a December 2006 interview from TheStreet.com's "Wall Street Confidential" webcast stirred controversy after it appeared on YouTube.com. In the video, Cramer described activities used by hedge fund managers to manipulate stock prices - some of debatable legality and others illegal. He described how he could push stocks higher or lower with as little as $5 million in capital when he was running his hedge fund. Cramer said, "A lot of times when I was short at my hedge fund...When I was positioned short-meaning I needed it down-I would create a level of activity beforehand that could drive the futures." He also encouraged hedge funds to engage in this type of activity because it is "a very quick way to make money"."
"Cramer stated that everything he did was legal, but that illegal activity is common in the hedge fund industry as well. He also stated that some hedge fund managers spread false rumors to drive a stock down: "What's important when you are in that hedge-fund mode is to not do anything remotely truthful because the truth is so against your view, that it's important to create a new truth, to develop a fiction." Cramer described a variety of tactics that hedge fund managers use to affect a stock's price. Cramer said that one strategy to keep a stock price down is to spread false rumors to reporters he described as "the Pisanis of the world". The comment was a reference to CNBC correspondent Bob Pisani, who reports from the trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange. "You have to use these guys," said Cramer. He also discussed giving information to "the bozo reporter from The Wall Street Journal" to get an article published. Cramer said this practice, although illegal, is easy to do "because the SEC doesn't understand it." During the interview Cramer referred to himself as a "banking class hero.""
113 anecdotal report in ALK
Xalkori effective for 7 months...Now On Ap26113 -Tumor reduced 40% on first scan..