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Putting half my cash to work now. I think the NASDAQ could still test 1900, but I like the bargains here and don't want to miss the rally.
Of course, if the NASDAQ breaks 1900, that would be a bad sign. But, I'm sensing a rally coming.
Kevin
I think those users having trouble with the iPod updates probably forgot to upgrade to the new QuickTime before trying to upgrade the iPod. I've upgraded several iPods and had no problems.
Kevin
Now I know why Apple is giving away free songs.
Went to download the song today, and I clicked on the song listed above the free one. Oops! Just spent a dollar.
And, I don't like Courtney Love's music at all.
Kevin
I studied Elliot Wave a few years ago. While I don't believe much in its ability to predict the future (especially short term), it did teach me that there is an emotional component to investing and that progress is made in waves. Earlier this year, I lightened up except for my 60K shares in AAPL which I subsequently sold at $24 (just missing this most recent move up).
So, I'm sitting mostly in cash waiting for this little wave of selling to turn around.
The economy is doing fine and earnings are almost all good now. But, I feel we are in a period where the chicken littles are all worried about one thing or the other.
I think this will soon pass. One of my hits last year was to load up in AAPL and some others at this time. AAPL was under $15. Stocks had a good run with the NASDAQ breaking 2000 by year end.
That said, I wouldn't be surprised to see the NASDAQ break 2500 this year. Once the emotion turns (and fundamentally, the next year or so looks really strong for businesses) the stocks will start to run again. No one likes to miss a good rally.
Well, that is just my thinking. I do think we are near a bottom here. Might be wrong, but that is what makes this game fun.
Kevin
I thought Google was only selling around $2B in stock. The rest of the stock will still be held by the current owners. Of course, if those current owners all start to sell (I imagine there is a lock up period), they will suck more cash out of the market, but it would be a real stretch to see $30B in cash being sucked into Google (the stock price would probably collapse if that much came available to buy).
Then again, any sellers would probably put a bunch of the proceeds into other stocks (maybe not all, but I would think a healthy percentage).
Or, do I have the wrong understanding how IPO's work?
Really, any continued downward trend in the market is going to be caused by the big guys unwinding much of their leverage (on the theory that interest rates are going to be rising, eliminating some of the desirability of margin). Also, as the trend continues, more margin calls lead to more selling which leads to lower prices.
Kevin
Merrill Lynch raised estimates based on the 2.7 million a week purchased songs rate. I wonder if ML will retract this, now that it seems the 5 million free songs were included. This means the download rate should be adjusted downward. Apple reported 50 million downloads as of March 11th. Subtracting out the 5 million means 15 million downloads in the last 7 weeks which is an average of less than 2.2 million a week. In the 50 million download press release, Apple said the rate was 2.2 million a week.
So, not much has changed really in the download rate in the last two months.
This is sort of a "pro forma" analysis and not a GAAP analysis.
Worse, Apple didn't make this clear yesterday, even to the analysts.
Methinks, Apple is trying to pull a fast one. As I usually chant to myself when bowling: Trust is a must, or your game is a bust. Apple management just lost a bit of respect from me.
Kevin
Looks like we are finally going to get an up day in the market. I certainly hope the rally holds.
Kevin
If you can find a music video cached somewhere, more power to you. In my experience, you can only play the videos through iTunes and it only streams. After playing a video, I search my hard disk for any files (both visible and invisible) that might have been created or modified that might contain the video, and there was none.
So, I guess the video is only held in virtual memory and not actually written to disk (maybe the Finder Find command doesn't show such files, but I doubt it). I also have the QuickTime Pro key so I can usually just save the movie from the QT window, but you have no such option for iTMS videos.
Kevin
The videos have been in iTunes from the beginning (accessible from the individual artist's page). But, it is nice to give them their own section. Hopefully, now that they have their own section, there will be many more there and not just a sampling of one per current artist. Would be nice to do some sort of deal with MTV (VH1, and CMT) to put all videos up there.
The movie trailers are new though and probably signal that something is coming to monetize video (like a video iPod or something else).
Still, I wonder how long it will take to see some shareware app that takes a playlist of videos and plays them consecutively so you would have music streaming without having to purchase the songs.
Kevin
I remember a Pepsi spokesman saying they expected redemptions to be around 15 to 20 million. I thought at the time that this would be low. But, I think a lot of the blame goes to Pepsi's distribution and putting it only on the 20 oz. bottles which cost an average of $1.25 (I got one out of a Sam's Club vending machine for 75 cents, but this was as low as it goes). You don't typically purchase these bottles at grocery stores and consume them at home (where you would be more likely to save the cap). In my neck of the woods, many places didn't get bottles until the end of March and most didn't get bottles until the beginning of March.
Mostly, these are sold in convenience stores and fast food restaurants (I bought several bottles from my local Subway stores with a sub). The tendency there is not to even look at the bottle cap (they often have "free prizes" under them), but to just toss them when done. I know I tossed a few winners myself just because I didn't want to carry the cap around in my pocket all day.
Anyway, the Apple press release clearly said 70 million purchased songs. If they included the 5 million in the total, then I guess Pepsi actually purchased the songs. Or, Apple is pulling a fast one...
Kevin
What a terrible day in the tech market. Is everyone selling so that they have money to buy Google shares?
Kevin
Correction: The Pepsi promotion and other free songs are not included in the 70 million downloads. That was what Steve said. Do you have info to the contrary?
Kevin
Thanks. The PodFreq does look promising. I mostly use a Belkin transmitter because it has a digital tuner (the iTrip has a freaky interface where you select from a list of "frequency songs" in the iPod to tune the iTrip).
Also, one of the real problems in my area is that there isn't any FM frequencies that are completely clear and suitable for personal "broadcasting". Someone should reserve a channel for nationwide use for such items.
Kevin
The FM transmitters are awful (I've bought every one available) and have bad FM quality sound. The range is also very limited and using them is a nightmare (you have to find a clear channel and then you would have to sync up with your buddy).
I know of no one that shares iPod music this way and I want the music to be all digital.
Kevin
So, why are there no copyright problems with iTunes sharing feature on the Mac?
I'd think streaming between iPods wouldn't be any different than streaming between iBooks (with Rendezvous) except that the iPod is much more portable.
Kevin
cotton: Boeing's good news.
Noticed that Boeing had a blow-out quarter and is guiding higher. Looks like good times are coming in the aircraft making business. Jobs follows earnings...
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/markets/ericgillin/10156968.html
Kevin
Good write up on iTunes changes at:
http://www.macilife.com/
I learned a few things I didn't get from Apple's website.
Look for Tuesday's entry.
Kevin
Going a step further with my fantasy iPod...
Maybe when some iPod requests to "listen" in on another iPod, the other iPod beeps (or something to get the attention of the listener) and displays a question on its screen:
XXX's iPod requests to listen in. Press Play to allow.
Kevin
Obviously, if the iPods are Bluetooth enabled, then you could listen with a Bluetooth headset. "Add a friend?" is about what I had in mind, but I would want it to be the other way around (in that the friend initiates the connection if the iPod has "sharing" enabled). Therefore, I'd want some way to initiate the sharing in the iPod (a la Rendezvous). Whether it requires a Bluetooth headphone or not would depend on whether all iPods come with a good Bluetooth headphone (I'd want this to be a popular feature so if everyone has the equipment to do it, it might catch on).
I don't think there would be any copyright issues since it would be almost equivalent to having a "boom box" in the room (playing the iPod music for everyone to hear). The iPods wouldn't allow you to copy the stream and it could be encrypted/protected so other devices couldn't listen in.
Kevin
OK. Brainstorming a bit about the future of the iPod...
Here is an idea. How about adding Bluetooth (or wireless Firewire, if such exists) to give you the option to allow "other iPods" to listen to what you are listening to. That is, someone with a similarly equipped Bluetooth iPod could use a "rendezvous-like" interface to connect to a stream that is playing on someone else's iPod in the vicinity (provided that iPod is "broadcasting").
Sort of like a wireless personal portable radio station in your pocket.
I'd think it would go over well where the young hang out...
Kevin
Sounds like Jobs is set against adding video capabilities to the iPod. Too bad.
He says it is all about the music. But, I wonder just how much more they can do to the iPod to make the music experience better. The only thing I can think of is more miniaturization and maybe wireless peer-to-peer streaming of music between iPods.
Kevin
Here is a reliable estimate:
CD's: 2,709,190
Songs: 34,673,540
This is the current size of the CDDB (the database that iTunes uses to update the song titles from an inserted CD). I've got a few CDs that didn't show up in CDDB so I'm sure it isn't everything that is available, but it does show that iTMS has a long way to go before it is comprehensive.
Kevin
I've heard that there have been around 100 million songs sold in the U.S. at some time or the other. I think the current catalog of the Big Five is around 10 million songs, not all of which are currently for sale.
Regardless, iTMS has barely scratched the surface, but it does have much more music than you will find in your local music stores.
Kevin
From the press release...
"iTunes has exceeded our wildest expectations during its first year, charting a new direction for the music industry," said Steve Jobs, Apple's CEO.
I thought they said they would sell 100 million songs the first year. Missed it by 30 million...
Kind of disappointing that they seem to only be updating iTunes. On the other hand, the free song for each of the next 8 days (and then one a week thereafter) should keep people coming back to the iTMS.
Kevin
If 8:30am is too early for you, you should hop a flight and come to the east coast. Here, it will be at 11:30am which should be better for you
Kevin
BTW, music has always been sold without DRM (e.g., CDs). It wasn't until iTMS, one year ago, that DRM was put in place. I think it is a futile, and destructive, thing that deters the ultimate success of music as a commercial enterprise. Now that FairPlay has been cracked, there really isn't much reason to continue with this restriction.
Kevin
Removing DRM probably will never happen since the music companies aren't smart enough to realize that DRM hurts their business.
But, I bet Steve Jobs has pushed hard for this. Just depends on how influential he is.
As to 128kbps music, the iPod plays this music beautifully if you use quality speakers or high end headphones. It has been my experience that the quality of your headphones is much more important than higher bit recordings (especially with AAC encodings).
Kevin
Music business
I'm expecting big announcements this week (tomorrow?) regarding the Apple music business. It is time for an update to the iPod (including 50GBs, iPhoto support, etc.).
Apple has been focusing more R&D on the music business in the last 6 months and we will soon see the fruits of that investment.
I'm secretly hoping that Apple was successful in getting the music vendors to drop the DRM requirement altogether (and this is why Jobs didn't want to negotiate FairPlay licenses).
I've stripped all my iTMS purchased songs of the DRM using PlayFair. Even though Apple is trying to slow down this type of software from spreading, I noticed the PC world now has a tool for removing iTMS DRM (DeDRM.exe). It makes little sense to have DRM in place when all songs are available for (illegal) free download anyway. Having DRM on legal music only serves to give just one more reason not to purchase.
Oh well, we will see what Apple has done in the last 6 months tomorrow or on Wednesday... They certainly haven't done much in the Mac area.
Kevin
Its good to be an Apple exec...
http://www.macobserver.com/article/2004/04/26.1.shtml
Kevin
Seems to me these speed bumps in the iBook and PowerBook line are pretty pathetic. After waiting so long for an update, the increase in MHz is miniscule.
Apple is coasting on its Mac products....
Did I miss something?
Kevin
Microsoft takes the lead in HD video editing:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040419/sfm089a_2.html
Huh?
Kevin
My opinion of Xsan is that it is a mostly a non-event except for those businesses that have large amounts of data to access and are all Mac.
If Apple were serious about being a player in this space, they would provide the software drivers to access the SAN for all different kinds of business computers. Instead, they point you to a third party for this stuff. Most businesses want to deal with as few vendors as possible.
I think Xsan is just another product that sells into the current customer base and doesn't do much to expand the customer base.
Kevin
Sorry about the "another" thing. I guess I should "preview" before I post.
Kevin
No way AAPL will drop another $5. Today is just profit taking by those playing the earnings game (especially with options expiration being over).
Kevin
New software released.
http://www.apple.com/hotnews/
BTW, my 50M/year prediction is not for the CURRENT iPod in its CURRENT form. I'm assuming that Apple will evolve the iPod appropriately to make it as small and as inexpensive as possible (while still making money). In the process, I expect them to add some features to make it more widely appealing. I'm also counting HP iPod sales (and hopefully other partners, as well).
The iPod has a bigger potential customer base than the Walkman ever had. And, the iPod delivers more value. I'm a big fan of the iPod "as a digital wallet". In 5 years, imagine the capacity of the iPod and what that will mean. You will be able to take all your "digital assets" with you wherever you go.
50M/year? It might not happen if Apple doesn't think big (I hate that they brushed off RNWK the way they did). But, it doesn't take many years at 100% growth to get to 50M/year. And, sales are growing faster than that now.
Kevin
If you read the articles, you will see that Jobs has not replied to Glaser's email suggesting a meeting today. Did you read otherwise?
Kevin
Of course, Apple is working with Microsoft to implement a converter that would convert between WMA DRM and AAC Fairplay in iTunes. We should hear about it in a few weeks.
Kevin
The NYT article also shows that Apple hasn't been too receptive to licensing FairPlay.
"In his message, which was obtained by The New York Times from a person close to Apple, Mr. Glaser asked Mr. Jobs to consider licensing Apple's Fairplay digital rights management system to RealNetworks to permit customers of the RealNetworks music service to play their digital music collections on iPod players.
In exchange, RealNetworks would make the iPod its primary device for the RealNetworks store and for the RealPlayer software."
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/04/15/business/media/15real.html
Seems to me that Apple should jump on this, but it also seems that Jobs isn't interested in being compatible. Too bad. Apple needs more partners.
Kevin