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"...a move to take the company private."
That would explain much. They are already behaving like a privately held company from a P.R. perspective. The delays in releasing SA are by now clearly the result of ongoing negotiations with an entity, perhaps one whose goal it is to privatize the technology. In the absence of previous methods of funding, why stay public? You have no benefits, and all the regulatory hassles to contend with, and the legal and accounting expenses, not to mention those pesky shareholder people.
I know it's all speculation, but I'd be interested in any thoughts the board might have that would contradict the logic of my last paragraph.
I'd like to thank you for the always thoughtful, and informed posts you provide our board. While I agree that not much thought has gone into posts speculating on why there has been a delay in SA data, and agree the two events you mentioned (termination of Biovail's RD agreement, Servier's announcement of an H.I. ampakine entering phase I) would both provide some justification for not releasing data since they could most certainly affect ongoing negotiations regarding partnerships, financings or sale of the company, there still remains among many the belief that due to a history of missed deadlines, and the poor communication with shareholders that whatever rational is provided, in the absence of significant S.P. appreciation, those excuses simply will not be sufficient.
Steve Jobs can get away with hiding the true nature of his health, and can even backdate options without offending shareholders, or even incurring inordinate SEC wrath. I suspect one of the reasons he can do so with impunity is Apple stock appreciation under his leadership.
Perhaps it is crass to bring up such non-CORX related analogies, but I think management has created an environment that will call for justifications in suppressing SA results that exceed those for the delay in RD (due to vacationing Germans), NASDAC delisting, or the missed 30 day timeline for an RD deal provided to us last fall.
Should they fail to do so, it can only serve to make some posters even more lazy in their continued criticism of management.
RE: J.P. Morgan conference.
San Francisco is too close to CORX H.Q. to warrant a trip.
Now that we're partners with Samyang, why not wait until there's a biotech conference in Makow,
or Bang Cock. They're more fun cities, and far more expensive junkets.
With the language barrier maybe no one will notice they have nothing to present...
Congratulations on your success. I waited and watched and worried until it was too late to buy.
I you do decide to sell some at this point, you would certainly have no difficulty finding buyers,
too bad the same can't be said for our old CORX.
I don't own XOMA, but have been following it. Here's the bear view of Xoma's ramp up.
http://www.biotechinvest.net/xoma.html
Been following CORX for about five years. In and out of stock from time to time. I've been back in since July.
I have to agree with you in regards investor relations. The public proclamations, when they do arrive are most often misleading. Last Fall, we were told a RD deal would arrive in thirty days, and that management were reviewing options in response to NASDAC delisting. Within a couple of months we were delisted, and when an RD deal finally arrived in the Spring, we discovered it had been sold for less than development cost. When the clinical director departed, we were told it was for "personal reasons." Then we were told to expect SA results by end of summer, then assured they'd be released in late October. I also think it especially cynical to conduct back-channel communications only thru ihubbers held hostage by CORX management and drugged by info tidbits for so long that they suffer from Stockholm syndrome.
If it ever did exist, the promise of ampakine technology has been undermined, perhaps permanently, by such poor communication choices. Why would any biotech analyst ever bother to cover us when fed such a long stream of misleading information, and pandering doubletalk. As for the investor, poor communication and even outright lies are overlooked as long as there is stock appreciation. When there is decimation, followed by long periods of stagnation, investors don't follow the stock so much as exhume it from time to time as you do, and examine it as one who owns a shrunken head, or monkey's paw might do.
Back on November 30th, I described myself as a Jackass for having bought into CORX this past summer, hoping for a bump into the hight twenty cent range after SA release.
I stick by that estimation of my decision making process.
I understand my purchase of a couple hundred thousand shares won't qualify me for the martyrdom some have experienced, but it was enough I think to buy my way into the club.
"Sell the company!" Amen to that.
I don't think it'll happen.
Back in november I posted that SA results might well go the way of the FDA letter and Tran. I still think that is the case, because whether it's buyout or dilution, Senior Management's career is toast. No pharma will ever put Varney in a position of responsibility after what has occured at CORTEX. If anyone thinks the excuse of being the victim of a sector meltdown will score any points in today's job market, then you haven't had the pleasure of a job interview recently. There are numerous candidates with winning track records that aren't given the time of day.
Fact is dilution, and "hanging on in quiet desperation" is the only avenue left this team.
The only one that pulled the ripcord in time was Tran.
After they've bled this one dry, all they have to look forward to is 18 months unemployment, and really awkward silences at job interviews.
Sorry, but that is the only solace left the CORX investor.
My wish as well. But I tend to agree with gfp that another dilutive financing is in the works for small change 3-4 million. Management will use the excuse of looking for an ADHD partner, and issue the SA results around the time the financing is announced. In between now and then no release of info that might adversely affect SP. Also look for additional lower priced options for the management team as per gfp.....
It is my heartfelt wish your porcine intuition is both well informed, and deliberate.
Cause if it's the dilution I feel coming, I'll cry wee wee all the way to the termination stall.
Thanks for the post outlining the management stock options. I agree with you that the lack of low priced options would be yet another reason why a dilutive financing, and an ADHD trial will be the choice of management irregardless of the terms or what they will have to give away in return for a fully funded trial.
My guess is that until they have a completed trial under their belt, both their stock options and job prospects in the current pharma climate will be limited.
As mentioned in my last post, I believe they will issue SA as a lovin' spoonful of sugar to help the unpleasant taste of dilutive medicine go down.
Do you believe in magic?
Evidently I do, since despite the freight train of dilution comming down the track, I'm not selling a share until I see what the SA Santa brings, and what the Grinch wants to fund our ADHD study.
As much as I had hoped for that outcome (sale of co.), I don't think that is in the works. They are delaying SA results, so that they may be used to leaven another dilution.
My guess is that they will work out a deal with a partner who will dictate all parameters of an ADHD trail: the design, follow ups, and digestion and publication of trail results in exchange for all the low impacts. Varney and management will thus be on auto-pilot for the next two years with regards to ADHD, collecting salaries, working on high impacts, attending conferences, but mostly praying ADHD works.
BTW, after the deal is announced, another round of stock options for management will be authorized by the board. The S.P. after the dilution .10-.12.
The only buyout figure I've ever heard mentioned was the one brokered by Rodman and Renshaw turned down by Dr. Stoll (and presumably the board) in the amount of two dollars.
I believe this was four years ago. I remember reading about it in a jerrydylan post some time back.
Ahhh, If Michael J. Fox could only get us a time machine instead of that measly grant.
It wouldn't even have to be a DeLorean.
A Yugo would be fine.
I'll bet we could even get Stoll to ride with us.
I know I'd settle for a space in the trunk next to the flux capacitor.
You're absolutely right. Biotech, particularly the neuro end of the business, is now operating under the "golden rule." Those with the gold, rule.
While our pipe line is more robust than in the past, all we've had to show for our efforts is one Proof of Concept trial sold out with no back end: RD.
We've never run an FDA trial. We almost ran one.
Big pharmas are looking for items further along that ours that can fill a niche that's going generic in the forseeable future.
So, although it pains the Longs and Varney, not sure enough of what's out there can be licensed out to raise the 20 plus million needed to run ADHD, and keep independence.
....that outcome is the only reason I remain long at this point.
Yes, it seems deadlines are for us peons in "real" jobs to answer to; as in "your deadline for that fixed equipment depreciation schedule is the monday after Thanksgiving....I don't care about your holiday plans."
If I recall, wasn't there a promise of a "deal" being inked in thirty days last fall, only to materialize months later after stock delisting, and further s.p. cratering.
The only ones mentioning the FDA filing for ADHD are those posting on this website who still pin their hopes on this indication being our salvation. Management's last mention of it was that they were awaiting trial design input from anonymous potential partners.
I have to admit to being a jackass for buying into this in the summer, thinking I could walk away in the fall with a bump up into the options overhang in the high twenties, and put a few dog biscuits away for the winter.
But that's pink sheet biotech investing for you.....you gotta love it.
My sympathies to all the longs.
I think you're right, it was only wishful thinking on my part to hope that finally the jig will be up. Are smoke and mirrors in an infinite supply? As long as their paychecks don't bounce, it seems so.
"ambiguous results" I can't help but go back to this Tran business, though it seems forgotten already. At the very least his leaving had to have made data set analysis more time consuming. I know the desire to join with the A-Team of Piskorski, Barberich, Manthis, and Pappafotopoulous and develop EB1010 in a "real" trial had to influence his decision, but couldn't his ability to forsee not so conclusive trial results based on years of clinical trial experience in both pharma and academia have influenced his decision, made so close to the conclusion of SA?
There may be another "good thing" about weak SA other than freeing up CX-1739. It may be the final straw that forces management to begin serious talks about a fire sale of all assets, since ADHD cannot be developed without funding sources that will not materialize.
The Doctor is in
stinking of gin
awaiting the fate of the twenty
censored
but unrepentant.
"It would seem that all parties would benefit."
....except for management, who will most likely join the ranks of the long-term unemployed.
The shame of it all is that it takes really hard times like these to galvanize the will of a management team into action; most leaders emerge with a much more effective skill set after lean times. Looks like our guys will never get the chance to put their hard earned experience to the benefit of shareholders. Sure, there was the fall out from past blunders, but who could have forseen how far reaching the changes affecting this industry have been. Too bad for all the millions out there who might possibly benefit from the I.P. Too bad for the long's Vegas Dreams.
If afraid the only help for them and us now is a "time machine."
Several weeks ago before the SA results were out you asked me what events I might see as a way forward for COR, since despite the apparent death spiral of the SP I remain a long.
Two possible chain of events might unfold.
Polonium 210 poisoned tea might be ordered up by a Brighton Beach Slav after management refuses to cooperate in a stock pumping scam, paving the way for a mob front jam job that sends the SP parabolic.
Like a death row inmate who, year after year draws progressively worse bunkmates, and hearing of the election of a Tea Party Hardcore, demands his execution date be set before a new moon, our management team comes grovelling back to R.R. and begs for a fraction of the pre-FDA letter buyout offer. But of course that would involve contrition, putting shareholders first, and an end to the suffering.
Will need to test .17 support levels and have trading volumes that exceed a million shares or so before we draw any conclusions about technicals. Since many on this board need well over a dollar to approach breaking even, they might not share our excitement, particularly in light of the oft-stated complaint that management perpetually fails to deliver, never owns up to mistakes, and in essence exists only to perpetuate their salaries since no other pharma would consider them viable job candidates unless they were willing to accept employment euthanizing lab rats at the end point of an animal trial conducted by a biotech company capable of funding, monitoring, and completing an FDA approved acute tox trial. This is not my opinion, but one that I suspect may be held by many trapped longs.
Why is it management bashing to suggest a stock can rise in spite of, rather that due to managment's strategy, or lack thereof.
I think you're right to assume that there's the possibility that SA results will go the way of the FDA letter, and Tran.
The stock may still rise despite the lack of transparency re: SA.
A thinly traded stock in our neck of the woods can be driven up or down on small amounts of money.
Let's all hope we can be manipulated upwards
without the need for "management to the rescue" hyperbole,
or even substantial progress on high impact platforms
since that may be years off.
The real test will be getting over the warrant overhang in the high twenties.
IMHO.
"..why would cortex continue the trial....if they didn't see something?"
Why not? They have absolutely no "irons in the fire" after selling off the rights to RD
at a discount to development cost. They need another indication to sell off at a loss
to fund the next small proof of concept trial (most likely ADHD) nobody in a position to
offer a partnership deal will care about.
If they were assisted in Germany, the end result of the assistance was for naught.
In short, strategically, they are in the wrong sector, of the wrong industry, at the worst
possible time. Whether or not you have confidence in management or not, that has to
be acknowledged. That being said, I'm long CORX.
Mos likely #20 has gone the way of Tran.
Things you can bank on.
1. Dilution.
2. Fear and Loathing but no headway w/ FDA.
3. Option Granting.
4. Fantastic Elastic Deadlines.
5. All IND's auctioned off at fraction of
development cost to fuel 1-4.