Looking for the next energy runner!
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Could just be a natural pull back or shorts forcing it down. I don't see any fundamental reason for it to pull back. I remain confident in its mid to long term prospects here.
AT thanks for the follow I will do the same. I like your board and will share my ideas there as well. As you can see I focus mainly on listed and etf oil & gas stocks but do deal with some small cap and speculative plays including reverse mergers. Money to be made let's just post good DD.
Watching AEGY here. Thanks for the link to your board I will be sure to post some of my ideas.
Great points GIFF I agree with you. It is interesting information about the futures vs spot. I like XLE and ERX a lot and find the ones with baskets of oil stocks and even oil service stocks have some of the most upside.
Haha yes I am ready. I know there are a lot of conflicting points of view on what oil prices will do over the next 1-2 years but I think we are about to see a new leg of this bull market.
I do also like BQI here. I've been playing that one since it used to be Canwest some 5 years ago or so.
Here are some interesting expert opinions I have been tracking on oil prices:
Jeff Rubin forecasts in his book Why Your World Is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller: Oil and the End of Globalization that the price of oil will reach $225 a barrel by 2012, thanks to increasing demand and decreasing affordable supply. Jeff has been named Canada's top economist 10 times. Click here to read more about this research.
www.thegreeninterview.com/jeff-rubin-bio
Oil prices to double by 2012: Canadian study. Analyst Jeff Rubin in his report noted accelerating depletion rates in many of the world's largest and most mature oil fields. He estimates oil production will hardly grow at all, with average daily production between now and 2012 rising by barely a million barrels per day.
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=080424190433.04dy6kj4
Goldman Sachs had the highest 2012 forecast of $130 a barrel a recent monthly oil poll, well above an average of $106.80 a barrel expected in 2012. JP Morgan latest crude oil price forecast remains on the upside.
http://www.liveoilprices.co.uk/oil/oil_trading/10/2011/jp-morgan-latest-crude-oil-price-forecast-remains-on-the-upside.html
Energy analyst Charles Maxwell of Weeden & Co says by 2020, when we have 1.5 percent increases in demand each year and 0.5 percent declines on the downside, then we’ll really be in a fix. At that time, I’m looking at $300 a barrel in money of the day.
http://turnkeyoil.com/2010/11/18/300-per-bbl-oil-by-2020/
Research provided by 247 Wall St analyst Paul Ausick stated, demand growth for crude in 2012 is nearly certain to outpace supply growth. That’s the main takeaway. If the US kicks off another round of easing, the gap could get even wider. Either way prices at the pump are surely headed back to more than $4/gallon. And higher would not be surprising.
http://turnkeyoil.com/2011/07/14/high-demand-mean-high-priced-oil-in-2012/
Not a very strong follow through since yesterday's volume and price action and it bounced off .02 pretty quickly. If there is some good developments we could see a break out. Just watching for now.
I was able to get some on the open but steam looks to have run out. You holding for more then a day trade?
Yeah still us just launching a new spin off newsletter. I will take a look at the Norway stock we talked about before. Maybe you can post some DD on my board so we can start a discussion.
What is interesting now about New York is they still have the block on new drilling so it is tough for companies that have large NY acreage to stay solvent. A company like STO of course could move on this now if they anticipate a different climate in the coming 1-2 years.
One thing I think for sure is we are about to see a major energy bull market so there is lots of upside here.
Chart action last few days. Couple traders I share ideas with told me to look. What do you see here?
Good point and agreed.
Not my first rodeo but agree with you.
Hey PS just reading over a recent promo page. You see this?
http://pennystockbreak.com/featured-stock.html
Wild Brush has established an aggressive development vision focused on unique energy opportunities both within North America and the world. Our plan is to aggressively build corporate and shareholder value through the acquisition, development, and production of Commercial Wind Farm locations, Solar Energy Paneling, and Hydro Electric Turbine sites.
Wild Brush will build superior financial returns by minimizing financial risks, managing technical issues and optimizing energy market prospects. The management team will work on a dedicated and focused basis to identify and develop unique green energy opportunities. The team will establish a strong corporate asset base by increasing market developments, energy output, cash flow and shareholder value. Wild Brush will continue to look for low risk development ventures, with large upside potential, both in North America and internationally.
Wild Brush Energy will grow through the development or acquisition of renewable energy sources such as Solar Energy, Wind Power, and Hydro Electric Energy. The Company will mainly develop, build and finance various projects through our own expertise and that of our various future partners. Potential acquisition targets will depend on an analysis of the project’s current or potential cash flow in relation to current power purchase agreements, government support, infrastructure and technical expertise.
Wild Brush will continue to expand its asset base of financially viable Renewable Energy developments. Our goal is to continually expand our annual megawatt output of green energy derived electricity. All three renewable energy divisions of Wild Brush Energy will work in concert with one another where technical expertises overlap, and separately when required. We believe this strategy will reduce development costs and compliment know-how across similar renewable energy development platforms.
Wild Brush recognizes that the ability to implement its business strategy depends on its ability to raise additional debt or equity capital to fund future acquisition, development, and expansion activities.
Watching Ohio basin / shale players. Some permit holders for the Utica Shale.
EnerVest Energy, which has four permits, is a subsidiary of EV Energy Partners (Nasdaq: EVEP).
Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: APC) currently has six permits.
CONSOL Energy (NYSE: CNX) currently holds three permits.
New action in Ohio area. Some permit holders for the Utica Shale.
EnerVest Energy, which has four permits, is a subsidiary of EV Energy Partners (Nasdaq: EVEP).
Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: APC) currently has six permits.
CONSOL Energy (NYSE: CNX) currently holds three permits.
Permit holders for the Utica Shale. Look for new action.
EnerVest Energy, which has four permits, is a subsidiary of EV Energy Partners (Nasdaq: EVEP).
Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: APC) currently has six permits.
CONSOL Energy (NYSE: CNX) currently holds three permits.
In July, Chevron trimmed its average 2011 output estimate by 30,000 bpd to 2.76 million, assuming oil at $79 per barrel, or 2.73 million bpd with Brent crude prices assumed at $111. Under production-sharing contracts, pricier oil means Chevron must leave more output in the hands of state-owned partners around the world.
Norway’s national oil giant Statoil announced Oct 17th its acquisition of Brigham Exploration for $4.4 billion. The primary target of Statoil’s interest is Brigham’s strong position in the Bakken Shale oil play of North Dakota and Montana. Brigham boasts 375,000 acres in the Williston basin, which includes the Bakken.
Brigham has been very successful in the Bakken, having drilled 88 successful wells in a row, which have come on line at an average 2,800 bpd. The company produces 21,000 bpd currently, with the potential, figures Statoil, to take it to 100,000 bpd within five years. Brigham has 12 rigs in the Williston, on track to drill 140 wells per year.
The deal represents a 36% premium to Brigham’s recent average trading price. It values Brigham at roughly $11,500 per acre, or $6,500 an acre if you exclude the value of the existing production, according to Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Looking at the deal in terms of earnings multiples, Tudor, Pickering says the price assumes an enterprise value 10 times expected 2012 Ebitda. Analyst Kim Fustier of Credit Suisse sees Statoil’s potential proved and unproved reserves from the acquisition as totalling more than 400 million boe (oil and gas equivalents). That would equate to a price of roughly $10 per boe.
DD here: http://turnkeyoil.com/2011/10/20/latest-acquisition-brigham-exploration/
So, as far as this concerns Williams Companies, Inc. (NYSE: WMB), the company is worth $16.5 billion. At $28.05, its 52-week range is $20.20 to $33.47. Williams has an exploration and production outfit like El Paso and it also has midstream assets and gas pipelines, although the company’s site notes that its MLP of by Williams Partners L.P. (NYSE: WPZ) owns and operates most of the company’s interstate gas pipeline assets. Williams owns approximately 75 percent of Williams Partners, including the controlling general partner interest. Its pipelines deliver approximately 14% of the natural gas consumed in the United States.
Worth a buy? Ya'think??
Is there a better natural gas player than Ultra Petroleum? The company is the low-cost producer, which is exactly what you want to own when nat gas prices are low.
That low price leads players such as SandRidge Energy (NYSE: SD ) to shift production out of gas and into high-priced oil, helping to stabilize the price of natural gas.
Ultra has developed just 6% of its land and has one of the savviest management teams in the industry. Plus, the stock trades for less than its financial crisis lows (amazingly!) despite sitting in a better competitive position. There's even an outside chance of a buyout from one of the supermajors.
Company P/E Dividend 5-Year Earnings Growth
Ultra Petroleum (NYSE: UPL) 11.9 0% 7.4%
I'll be looking for some more DD. Thanks!
Stocks that look great based on one factor may prove horrible elsewhere, making due diligence a crucial part of your investing research. The best stocks excel in many different areas, including these important factors:
Growth. Expanding businesses show healthy revenue growth. While past growth is no guarantee that revenue will keep rising, it's certainly a better sign than a stagnant top line.
Margins. Higher sales mean nothing if a company can't produce profits from them. Strong margins ensure that company can turn revenue into profit.
Balance sheet. At debt-laden companies, banks and bondholders compete with shareholders for management's attention. Companies with strong balance sheets don't have to worry about the distraction of debt.
Money-making opportunities. Return on equity helps measure how well a company is finding opportunities to turn its resources into profitable business endeavors.
Valuation. You can't afford to pay too much for even the best companies. By using normalized figures, you can see how a stock's simple earnings multiple fits into a longer-term context.
Dividends. For tangible proof of profits, a check to shareholders every three months can't be beat. Companies with solid dividends and strong commitments to increasing payouts treat shareholders well.
With those factors in mind, let's take a closer look at Ultra Petroleum.
Factor What We Want to See Actual Pass or Fail?
Growth 5-Year Annual Revenue Growth > 15% 13.2% Fail
1-Year Revenue Growth > 12% 16.8% Pass
Margins Gross Margin > 35% 74.6% Pass
Net Margin > 15% 36.7% Pass
Balance Sheet Debt to Equity < 50% 130.2% Fail
Current Ratio > 1.3 0.43 Fail
Opportunities Return on Equity > 15% 33.3% Pass
Valuation Normalized P/E < 20 12.59 Pass
Dividends Current Yield > 2% 0% Fail
5-Year Dividend Growth > 10% 0% Fail
May pick some up in the AM for some drinking money :)
It is interesting action lately. Could be a good pick up here.
TerreStar Networks Inc., having sold the business to Dish Network Corp. for $1.375 billion, said in a court paper that $33 million should be left over for eventual distribution to unsecured creditors, assuming the company is correct with regard to interest owing to secured noteholders....
...TerreStar said it’s “optimistic” there will be a settlement, opening the door to a consensual plan allowing distribution to unsecured creditors.
Interesting action today.
Only going to get better from here:
Good news for BP…
As part of the settlement, Anadarko has also agreed to drop its case against BP for gross negligence. Anadarko will now contribute $4 billion to the $20 billion fund set up by BP to meet the legal liabilities arising due to various claimants including local citizens, businesses and the government.
Separately, Anadarko Petroleum(APC) agreed to pay BP(BP) $4 billion to settle all claims from the Gulf of Mexico oil spill in April 2010, which Canaccord Genuity energy analysts say fully removes the overhang associated with the Macondo incident, and should redirect investor focus towards Anadarko’s “superior” deepwater exploration portfolio, strong liquidity, and improving U.S. onshore productivity.
Bunch of greedy lawyers is all. Great deal.
Norwegian oil giant Statoil(STO) has agreed to buy Brigham Exploration(BEXP) for $36.50 in an all cash deal. The deal values Brigham at roughly $4.4 billion and is a more than 20% premium to its Friday close.
The transaction, which values El Paso at $38 billion including El Paso's outstanding debt creates the largest network of natural gas pipelines in the U.S. and is the largest energy merger this year.
The XLE owes much to the strong gains of its top holdings, such as Schlumberger [SLB] and Conoco Phillips [COP], which both gained nearly 30 percent last year.
Even in today's trade the XLE's top two holdings—Exxon Mobil [XOM] and Chevron [CVX] are outpacing the performance in the spot price of crude oil. (Exxon is up over 2 percent!)
The U.S. crude oil futures contract continues to be rolled into a contango (as the front month price is trading at a price that is less than in the coming months in 2011), and for that reason, Jakob says the USO ETF will continue to underperform oil equity ETFs in 2011.
My view: Stay long the XLE versus short the USO for an expected yearly return of at least 10 percent.
What ETFs will give oil investors the biggest benefit in 2011?
Well, if you're a "buy-and-hold" investor or even a daytrader who likes to trade ETFs instead of futures, you'll probably be better off putting your money into a oil equities ETF rather than betting on oil futures ETF. You certainly were much better off is you did that last year.
The investor who bought the largest oil equity ETF [XLE] last January gained nearly 20% by the end of 2010, while the U.S. oil futures ETF [USO] lost ground.
The company connects NGL-supplies in the Mid-Continent and Rocky Mountain regions with key market centers. This provides the MLP with a low-risk and stable cash flow. ONEOK Partners provides contracted natural gas supplies, transportation services, and storage services.
OKS could see movement as a result of this big deal between El Paso and Kinder Morgan.
BWP could see movement as a result of this big deal between El Paso and Kinder Morgan.
Boardwalk Partners has evolved into a shareholder friendly, shareholder wealth creating machine. Stanley Horton has been pro-active to increase Boardwalk Partner’s returns.
Plains All American Pipeline is delivering a very strong 2011 performance. On October 11th, management declared a 4.7% increase in its quarterly dividend.
What is truly remarkable is the ability to continually increase its dividend. The company has increased quarterly dividends for 9-consecutive quarters, and increased dividends for 28 of the past 30-quarters.
Gasoline inventories fell by 3.324 million barrels to 206.271 million barrels, worse than the drop of 1.7 million expected by Dow JOnes. Distillates fell by 4.266 million barrels to 149.739 million barrels, also worse than the 1.7 million draw expected by Dow Jones.
The other issue to consider is a lower refining capacity.
Refineries in the last week were shown to be at 83.1%. While some slowing is routine, this is down from 84.2% a week earlier and worse than the 83.8% expected by Dow Jones.
Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO), the king of independent refineries, is now up 1.3% at $23.70 and is challenging 5-day highs.
Oil & Gas Equipment & Services (AMEX:XES) closed Monday's bullish trading session at $34.74. In the past year, the ETF has hit a 52-week low of $25.58 and 52-week high of $44.63. Oil & Gas Equipment & Services (XES) has been showing support around $32.85 and resistance in the $35.69 range.
Technical indicators for the ETF are Bullish. For a hedged play on Oil & Gas Equipment & Services (XES), look at the Dec '11 $34.00 covered call for a net debit in the $32.59 area. That is also the break-even price for this trade. This covered call has a duration of 53 days, provides 6.19% downside protection and an assigned return rate of 4.33% for an annualized return rate of 29.80% (for comparison purposes only).
Oil & Gas Equipment & Services (XES) has a current trailing average distribution yield of 0%. [ATU-Seven Summits Research]
Are you talking about the recent financing announcement? Where did you see the details of this? TIA
There is still a lot of missing information about this one. I am hoping if they have a plan that we will see the information updated and a reason to get excited. Let us know what you find out.
With follow through on their projects and a way to fund them this has the potential for a nice move. Liquidity is king on these small caps through.