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Easy there. What is with the anger? Relax man, it is just a stock.
Shareholders have a binary decision as well - Sell or hold. Other than that, there is nothing else we can do. I hate to say it, but we are powerless and that is the truth. The binary event in VRNG has not concluded. People seem to think that a jury verdict was all that was needed to make this thing move. For the reasons I reflected on in my previous post, we cannot make this thing move. The market makers and the institutional investors will make it move when the uncertainty is removed. They will not mind buying in at $4 if the uncertainty has been removed.
With all due respect Mike, I do not think your expectations of this are warranted. You just said that if the stock went from $3 to $4 it would not justify the risk????
You are kidding me right? That is a 33% gain? The only way it would not justify your risk is that you are risking too much capital in the stock in the first place and maybe that is the problem. You might have been looking for a quick payday. People would kill for a 33% return over 5 years, never mind in a period of a few months.
At $3 what is the risk exactly? The case has been won, it is pending final judgment. These things take time.
I also laugh when we has tiny shareholders believe that this or any other stock owes us anything. Stocks owe us nothing. What have we done really? We just click the buy or sell button and buy stock and think we own the company. You realize it is just as easy for us to sell the stock and walk away? We have no loyalty to this or any stock. Do you think that insiders can just sell their without being seen and disloyal, especially in a play like VRNG? The truth is, the company and its management and people are the ones who are working day in and day out. We are simply here to line out own pockets - admit it or not.
Using round figures, for argument sake there are 100,000,000 shares outstanding. If someone owns 100,000 shares they have a 1/1000 * 100 = .10% stake - hardly something that carries weight.
All I am saying is that there are much larger players in this than probably the total of all of our shares on ihub combined. We can't expect the stock to give us anything. It will either happen or it wont. How to weight those possibilities is up to the individual investors/shareholder.
If you think that that stock is not returning the 100% that you feel you are owed then perhaps you should have a look at other opportunities in this vast market.
If someone is in on this stock at $.60 then it turns out this was a wise investment for them. However, if they have not cashed out any winnings along the way then really they are no different then people who are in the red at that point. Paper gains or losses make no difference - except physiologically. Next, you will complain that the stock went to $6 and you only made 100% return while the guy who bought at $.60 made 900%. But isn't that the reward for getting in early?
Did you ever think what the reason was for it being $.60 then vs. $3 now? Perhaps it was a risk/reward trade-off? There was tonnes of risk at the $.60 that is why the market priced it there, whereas now, a lot of that risk has been mitigated, and like it or not, the market price of the stock is reflecting the current risk/uncertainty.
When the uncertainty has been removed, the marketing makers and the institutions will make this thing move - not you or I or anyone else on this board. We are price takers not price makers.
The way I view the stock market is that is a bunch of giants walking around stomping there feet as they walk. Then there is us - the little guys. We need to watch where we step because we might get crushed by one of these giants as their foot comes down. All we can do is survive and get the crumbs that falls from these giants. Relatively speaking the VRNG crumbs will be a good return for the 'blood, sweat and tears' we have put into this company (sarcastic). We in no ways ever control anything.
End of Rant.
With regards to the laches and the going forward royalty rate motions:
I beleive that VRNG will win one or the other, not both. I do beleive that the legal team of VRNG is bascially trying to pin down Google here and making the judge decide what to do. Think about it, do you(collective you) really think te judge will deny both of these motions? These motions are calculated and seek to put VRNG in a better postion that they are now with the current jury ruling.
If laches motion is granted, they past damges go all the way back to 2005 @ 3.5% ie almost 7 years.
If running royalty motion is granted then you have 3.5 years at some rate higher than 3.5%. I say higher becasue the judge will agree IMO hat Google is now an infringer and should be paying a RR higher than the one used for past damages when they supposidly did not know they were infringing.
It doesnt have to be explicitley mentioned; the past damages were completely up to the jury to decide.
If we assumed that 3.5% applied to all Defendants, that is on us for assuming it. Here is an example of the choices available to jusry
1. No past damages awarded
2. All defendants pay lump sum only
3. Some defendants pay lump some only; other pay nothing
4. All defendants pay running royalty
5. Some defendants pay running royalty
6. 2 + 4 above
etc etc
You get my point. The jury can decide anything it wants based on the evidance it has in front of it. The judge must decide if he agrees with the jury or not. In VRNG case, he has agreed.
Just because the infinite possibilities of verdict were not spelled out for us, doesnt mean that the jury could not use any one of the remedies I listed above.
This is what happens when parties roll the dice nd go to jury trial... there are many possibilities, not just the obvious ones.
If we examine's Judge Jackson's own words to the jury, he said to look at the evidence to determine what revenue to base their verdict on.
Since the figures in evidence were the 20% of US revenue, it would make sense that the running royalty is also applied to the US Revenues going forward.
VRNG Revenue = .035x
where x = Google's US Revenue
It really doesnt matter what we think the jury "should" have done. The fact is that jury was their for the entire trial, heard all of the arguments and rendered a verdict based on the information that they had on hand.
The theory that Alphi puts forward and the reason for it does make sense. The customers of Google were hit with a one time penalty, while Google, as the principal infringer is hit with a lesser lump sum amount but it futher penalized by a running royaly.
It will be interesting to see if any future licensing agreement with Google will allow Google to let its customer use the technology or will VRNG insist that the other Defendants now enter seperate agreements with them to use the patented technology.
Exactly. It is the absolute dollars invested that matters, not the proportion of your wealth invested.
I have invested my entire wealth of $100 in a stock. (100%)
You have invested $1,000 in the same stock out of the $10,000 they have to invest. (10%)
According to Alphi though the other guy's $1,000 decision shouldnt matter because my $100 is worth more to me personally?
To me, it is a simple concept.
Enough said. I think I have made my point.
How does anyone's personal stake in a company matter?
Coonsider this:
If you own 5% of the float of the company but that is the only investment you hold; you have a 100% personal stake.
If an institution holds the same 5% of the float of the same company but this only represents 1% of their total holdings.
Who has the bigger stake?
Answer: Niether. You both hold equal stake in the company. The stake in a company represents how many shares are controlled; not what proportion of the your own wealth is invested. This, to me is a red herring argument.
I agree. The proportion of the investment compared to their total holdings doesn't matter. The only thing that matters is the absolute dollar value of the investment.
I am not sure what the expectation would be; would you be expecting the institutions to invest 20% of their holdings into VRNG? To me that would be a foolish move - eggs all in one basket and such. The truth is VRNG is a small cap company and the institution have invested accordly.
The more relevent comparision would be to compare how many shares that $20M has bought compared to the enitre available float of VRNG.
Agreed. Buy or don't want buy, and who cares
If I am allowed to chime in here. I think Mike's point is that the market hasn't chimed in yet and we are waiting and waiting and waiting. It is the market that will give value to the stock. Sure we won, but until it is reflected in the pps it doesnt mean a damn thin. It is hard to move on beyond where we are today to get excited about aother court case, when the current one has not come to a full conclusion. Only when that happens can we move forward. The market will react, we hope postively and it will be reflected in the share price. The truth is it hasnt reacted and we are all in a holding pattern and frusterated.
I for one do see the value in this stock long term and I have a price target in mind to get my intial investment out. I for one would be happy with a 20% return in a marketplace where average returns are in the single digits.
I also understand the frusterations of people who have bought at early price points and are looking to get validation of the victory so that they can be rewarded. To this point though I say, why not crystalize some of your gains so that at least you can pocket something? If you dont, all you have is paper gains and what sense does that make? You can't spend a paper gain, right? But if those people really not want to cash out and hold on to the low averaged pps they bought in at, well then this is the risk you have to bear...the price may not go up right away, even with a positive court ruling. You might be in for another couple of months of waiting. It is all a personal decision in the end.
If I am allowed to chime in here. I think Mike's point is that the market hasn't chimed in yet and we are waiting and waiting and waiting. It is the market that will give value to the stock. Sure we won, but until it is reflected in the pps it doesnt mean a damn thin. It is hard to move on beyond where we are today to get excited about aother court case, when the current one has not come to a full conclusion. Only when that happens can we move forward. The market will react, we hope postively and it will be reflected in the share price. The truth is it hasnt reacted and we are all in a holding pattern and frusterated.
I for one do see the value in this stock long term and I have a price target in mind to get my intial investment out. I for one would be happy with a 20% return in a marketplace where average returns are in the single digits.
I also understand the frusterations of people who have bought at early price points and are looking to get validation of the victory so that they can be rewarded. To this point though I say, why not crystalize some of your gains so that at least you can pocket something? If you dont, all you have is paper gains and what sense does that make? You can't spend a paper gain, right? But if those people really not want to cash out and hold on to the low averaged pps they bought in at, well then this is the risk you have to bear...the price may not go up right away, even with a positive court ruling. You might be in for another couple of months of waiting. It is all a personal decision in the end.
But warrants have a limited upside. As you long as the pps is less than 10.00. More than 10.00 then they are recallable at. 01. You must take that into your calcluation. The warrants price increase will slow down as you pps approaches 10.00
http://m.seekingalpha.com/user/337469/comments/symbol/vrng
You might be familar with this site. I was trying to be nice by giving u some food for thought but u decided to he an ass.
So take it and choke on it buddy...and please we don't need to onow if u r buying or not buying a warrant. I knew nothing about warrants yesterday. Funny what a little searching online will do..do u always need to be spoonfed?
Careful here. I read that if the warrants trade for at least $10 for at least 20 days they are recallable by the company at $.01. So u need to calculate your risk reward scenario using this information. You will not have warrrant if pps sustains $10 . Food for thought.
Accunting rules state that you must value your asset at what you paid for it. If there is a lowering of the market value for the asset then you must decrease it to the lowr of cost or market. Increasing an asset value to what you think it is worth violates GAAP.
I agree with you. There is manipulation in high risk plays the nature of the play makes it open to manipulate shin that is just the fact. No sense in crying about it when it doesn't turn out our way. Just be patient and the price will settle promise.
The market makers see the high risk and the greediness of people to get rich and what they do is play on that and really manipulate the system
Nobody is feeding me anything these are my thoughts. Of course the investor needs to be rewarded but it doesn't mean it they need to be rewarded immediately this is a long term play. The company's responsibility is not to pop the price in the short term just so people can make money and get out. The company's responsibility is for the long term growth and viability of the company the shareholders who are long term invested will agree. More importantly, they will be rewarded.
With all due respect, I do not beleive that this is VRNG's top priority at the moment(laying out further plans). I do not think that the pps is nor should be VRNG's priority at this time. Why not just let the lawyers do what the lawyers do. I really do not understand the impatience here. If you are confident in what you are holding in the long term value of the stock, then why does the day to day stock price matter? I am finance and accounting as a profession. I have learned one very important thing. The numbers will always bear out the truth eventually. In the short term you can hide anything, but the long term view is that eventually all will be reveal.
All of this assumed that people are long here. I see many people on here claim to be long. If so, why all the worry? Unless the definition of long is selling within one week of a final verdict.
I am not worried at all. I know what I hold, I have not invested more than I can afford to lose. In fact, in my mind , once the money has left my bank account I write it off as never being able to recover it. When I sell and the cash comes in, I say "Wow, Cash!". I then go and caluclate weather I lost or gained. Paper gains and loss dont matter to me.
The judge may also accept the jury's error's as is and compensate the shortfall by increase the future royalty rate. It is really up to the judge's descretion now.
I seem to remember some rounding rules.
When you are rounding a list of numbers you, rounding should not apply to each of the numbers, just to the total. This provides a mopre accurate result.
So each of the figures should have the 35% rate applied and the result should be an exact result for each defendant. Total up all the exact figures and then round the result.
The reason there is no date or whatever is becasue the JUDGE hasnt given one. Period. Endstop. It is his court, his rules. The legal system is like this. It is only becasue we all have a vested in the outcome that it seems like the judge is not doing things the way WE think they should be done.
If we were all this smart, we wouild all be jduges. Do you not think the judge knows what he is doing? All you guys who are overnight legal experts come here harping about what the judge should or should not do. There are procedures to follow - again there are bigger issues at stake here besides ihub posters' needs.
Yes people just want this solved here and now, just because money is involved. Others in scoiety may not agree with those motives. There is a thing called justice that the society needs to uphold as well.
Exactly. The PR cannot come out and say we think we were wronged. They can only confirmed the facts as they are right this very moment. They received a $30m + 3.5% royalty. THIS IS ALL THAT IS TRUE.
It makes me wonder where alot of people on these boards are getting this information from. This is not a letter to the editor where you can argue back and forth. The matter is before the courts until the judge makes his ruling. The company will not and can not say anything different than what is on the record so far. I beleive the lawyers are smarter than us. Let them do their thing through the post trial legal motions they are allowed. Really what choice is there - with you hold or dont. I am not sure what the debate is here. The price will settle itself, people seem to want instant gratification. Theyu want a verdict and then the price needs to shoot up.
If you study stock theory you will see that the price of the stock gradually goes to its long term value.
Just relax and take a break from the minuite to minute watching of the stock ticket - even a straight line has bumps if you look at it too close.
I think a simplification is in order:
TOTAL DAMAGES = PAST DAMAGES + FUTURE AWAARD
(Jury decides) + (Judges Decides)
(30M + 3.5 running royalty) + (TBD)
The jury decision is the ONLY part we know right now - rightly or wrongly. The jury doesnt recommend any royalty rate to thew jude, the can do whatever he likes with his damages to make VRNGO whole again. This is includes taking the 3.5% used in the jury's decision, not taking it and awarding a different amount.
I only have a free account so I don't think I can see L2
Where are you seeing this? Or this is the prediction for today?
Yes lets try wait for the verdict on this trial before we start pumping the future of other patents. Patens are not easy to prove or defend. People on here talk like it is child's play. Cool your jets.
Beautifully worded ...one of the best post of the 14000 on here
Radium,
Come on man, be serious do you really think that the SEC has time to deal with this crap???? The SEC is not your nanny. As I have said before I cannot understand for the life of me why people cant just figure out things for themselves.
When things are untruths, they are untruths. I am referring back to a post by someone else saying we are all upset because we are not rich yet. I could not agree more. There is alot of people who think it is their right to get rich or make money from this or any other stock. We do not have that right. There are greater rights and responsbilties at stake here. People seem to forget what a jury trial is and how it is important to a society for the jury system to play itself out.
The Jury doesnt care if you have have money at stake. It is easy to sit back in our comfy chairs and wonder what is taking them so long. Maybe they are taking their duty seriously? what is with all the speculation of what the jury is doing or not doing. People seem have the need to write down on a MB every thought that ever enters there mind. Would you ever react like this in your real world life? Do you say everything that is on your mind? It is called a filter. But I guess a MB is the one place you can just put random thoughts (however repetative) down and seek the approval of other strangers. Can we just stop with the speculation of any kind? There is no real news out there, no new articles. The articles that are out there are just more opinion pieces. The time for opinions is over, we are waziting for facts.
I love the Johnny come latelies as well asking what pps share will be - like we know. Or maybe we do? Why not search the 14,000 posts and look at what people think the pps share is. Those guesses would be as good as anything else anyone else would suggest today.
My point is people just need to relax. To the point of the false news some poster put up here. Lets assume for a second, that the news was true. What would you do? You would immedeiately go to the market to check the pps, right? You would make a decision to buy or hold at that point, correct? The market would move on news, correct? The market would move even more on varifiable news, correct? Since the pps did not move, could it be that the news was false? BINGO.
People need to get a sense of reality here. We are not on some Utoopian planet. This is a message board for God's sake. People say things, they post thing, they all have different reasons for doing what they do. Figure what your own objectives are and grow up, take everything with a grain of salt, be a skeptic and you will just do just fine. Oh one more thing, perhaps if you only bet what you are prepared to lose, then there is no reason to be worried when news will come and what the pps will be. Set your sell points and sit back and wait, but enough of the crying that the world is not a fair place !!
End of Rant.
Radium,
Cime on man, be serious do you really think that the SEC has time to deal with this crap???? The SEC is not your nanny. As I have said before I cannot understand for the life of me why people cant just fdigure out things for themselves.
When things are untruths, they are untruths. I am referring back to a post by someone else saying we are all upset because we are not rich yet. I could not agree more. There is alot of people who think it is their right to get rich or make money from this or any other stock. We do not have that right. There are greater rights and responsbilties at stake here. People seem to forget what a jury trial is and how it is important to a society for the jury system to play itself out.
The Jury doesnt care if you have have money at stake. It is easy to sit back in our comfy chairs and wonder what is taking them so long. Maybe they are taking their duty seriously?
My point is people just need to relax. To the point of the false news some postrer put up here. Lets assume for a second, that the news was true. What would you do? you would immedeiately go to the market to check the pps? You would make a decision to buy or hold at that point, correct? The market would move on news, correct? The market would move on varifiable news, correct? Since the pps did not move, could it be that the news was false? BINGO.
People need to get a sense of reality here. We are not on some Utoopian planet, this is a message board for God's sake. People say things, they post thing, they all have different reasons for doing what they do. Firgure what your own objectives are and grow up, take everything with a grain of salt, be a skeptic and you will just do just fine. Oh one more thing, perhaps if you only bet what you are prepared to lose, then there is no reason to be worried when news will come and what the pps will be. Set your sell points and sit back and wait, but enough of the crying that the world is not a fair place !!
End of Rant.
Exactly....GROW A PAIR PPL!!"
Come on guys get over it. You are guys are moaning and complaining for nothing. So what if someone said something that was not true. Instead of relying on others for your information(being spoonfed) why not just seek it out yourself or ask the poster of the information to provide a credible source. If they cannot provide such a source then simply dont believe them.
No one owes anyone anything on these boards. You can not or should not take anyone's word on anything on here.
It boggles my mind how we need to always blame someone. Take responsbilitiy for yourself, your money and investments. If someone is telling untruths, just ignore them. The funny part is alot of the boldness people show on MBs would not be shown if they were standing face to face with the person.
Assume that 100% of the people are telling half truths. Discover the other 50% on your own.
Well than I guess we should thnak you for pointing us, the uneducated masses in the right direction. You do realize it could be that we are just small time investors who have other jobs and are not all lawyers, right?
Yes, 9 minus 1 equals 8.
or
9-1=8
I am in Ontario as well and this rain and wind is crazy. I cant imagine what the people in the States will be experiencing.
I agree with almost all of what this article says. It is well thoght out from the perspectve of how the market theoretically comes to a partocular pps.
What I differ with the article on is the calculation for the pps if there is a judgement. The 60% chance of a 500m award implies that 300m is the long term expected value. I have a issie here in that the analysis shouldnt look at long term expected value. When an award is made it will be x, it will be 100% at that time so I beleive the full value of the award should be used in the analysis of a post award pps
But even use the author's metoh there are some issues that need to be addressed:
If 60% is used there also needs to be expected award representing the other 40%.
The use of 60% works in a long term probability situation.
The remaining 40% would have to be accounted for ie 10% chance of 1b settlement, 5% chance of zero award(loss) etc.
For example if you flipped a fair coin indefinetly then the expected number of heads is .5x, x being the number of tosses.
I also beleive there will be a multiple applied to the pps if an award is reached. it is my opinion that this would be around 1.5x to be conservative
I am going ot use my one post for the day to say this.
I think everyone who is long in the stock needs to relax a bit. It doesnt look well on us when we are speculating and asking questions based on one tweet. There is a court case going on, iti s not a 1 our drama that will be over soon.
This is only the beginning, what will be will be, we have no control over this - it no use to wildly speculate
These were fun times. I was in at $.06 and out at .61 when it was a falling knife.