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what?! This government is selling off virtually everything. You cannot get more investment friendly.
got it. thanks for clarifying. I agree and disagree about the risk though, although that doesnt mean I dont crap my pants when I see big sales all of a sudden. as someone else mentioned, probably a shake out. again, we are selling bonds oversubscribed, our unsecured NPLs are written off, the remainder Secured NPLs on the books are now like less than 20%. The unsecured sales will be a bonus since we are and will continue to get something from them (3%). We are also profitable. Although there is always risk here, I'm having a hard time understanding how risks outweigh benefits.
if we another greek banks are selling bonds, why would a new capital raise be needed?
i dont understand what you are say. you think there will be further dilution?
makes sense.
Same. I think whats spooked people is the comments about a potential need to raise more capital. That doesnt makes sense to me all things considering now. Probably going to be a wait and see until the summer of next year.
Clear bottom here.
when its 10x higher? Ok then.
Its sort of sad to see here. Definition of emotional selling. People are buying the stock high and selling it low...wtf are people thinking?
I agree...same thing happened in the US. But like you said, they paid back the govt, appeased creditors (little more different here I know), and got back into full swing. Obviously the banks will eventually be able to pay back the government by buying back their shares, which will no doubt be beneficial to us, even on top of how undervalued they are.
But my original question has to do with recapitalization. Since most of the NPLs have been written off already (any money earned from those sales are bonus for the unsecured loans), the remainder SECURED NPLs are less than 25% of total loans, which are obviously worth something. Based on those figures, why would a recapitalization be needed, considering the current revenue and profitability of the company? I'm thinking there really wont be a need, but I still like to understand worst case scenario.
The US government did own a massive portion of the banks. The american banks paid back the government. I'm just not understand what you mean by all of this.
What? That is absolutely not true. Just look at the banks in the US for example. They paid back everything. Recapitalization has nothing to do with paying back debt, it's about making sure they have enough assets on book to cover another fallout if trouble happens.
Right, I get that it's not the bank that's wants to recapitalize, it's governments. Soy question again, why would we need to do it considering what I said in my original post?
Let's talk
So NPls are 45%. 55.7 of those have been written down, so less than a quarter of loans are unsecured. Say at the absolute worst, the value of these unsecured loans are half of what they say. How the hell would there be a justification to do recapitalization? We are selling off parts of the the business, like insurance, some of these loans are selling, revenue is being generated, profit is being made, and cash is being accumulated. So please, someone play devil's advocate here. Why would we need to recapitalization further?
what is the source of this please?
So true! Although I would still be worried about that Erdogan bastard. Would not surprise me if he is secretly funding isis and setting things up for it to be the home of the islamic state.
This is not the same thing. These are not mortgage backed securities. These are company bonds. The likelihood of them being paid back are based on the overall health of the organization.
Bond sale was oversubscribed by 2.7x and a lower rate than expected.
http://www.ekathimerini.com/222343/article/ekathimerini/business/national-bank-covered-bond-issue-proves-great-success
this board is asleep! bond sales are going to happen here. Super low volume get this moving. Time to wake up people!!!
yeeee baby.
NBGGY IS the coat tails. watch.
close is good.
bought more
thats what it says!
thoughts on stress test please???
What are the chances for a need to recapitalize further? I thought we are way above the CCAR????
"Frankfurt aims to bring the process forward for the Greek banks so that if any capital shortfall is identified it can be covered through a recapitalization process as part of the ongoing bailout program – leaving that for the usual deadline for stress test results in July would be too late."
http://www.ekathimerini.com/221977/article/ekathimerini/business/greek-bank-stress-tests-to-start-in-february
Agreed. But who do you think will set the price? The fund managers will and new investors will be forced to pay. Think of it a private company that is now issuing shares to the public. Its especially the same since like you say, 43% are tied up in the fund, and a large chunk are owned by vulture funds. they can and will manipulate this upwards.
we are mostly owned by vulture funds and the hellenic fund.
it is but yes, quite the possibility. we are trading at like 20% of book. Even less than earnings. and we should be trading at around 8-10x earnings.
now hear this. We are mostly institutionally owned. Major stock owner may just decide to raise their asks to, I dunno, 5 bucks. Get us up listed, then drive it up way further. It's like the equivalent of a damn IPO!
people need to realize how undervalued we are.
we are trading at a fraction of what we are fundamentally worth. then factor in the fact that we should be trading at a multiple of that value. think multi bagger territory in a couple of years. we will be in the teens.
not a chance. What, UK Britain is just going to say we arent doing business with greece all of a sudden? Why wouldnt arrangement change other than some payments to the EU? It will not be impactful.
Amen. I just bought some more today.
was there an RS last year or the year before?
was there a reverse split here?
Good there be news of an uplisting? I'm referring to the Canadian side btw. I own ACB. trades on the venture. Would be a big deal if it goes up to the TSE. The big board in Canada.
agreed. the down side is because this will continue going up, it will be hard to trade. the upside is that price growth will be massive. multi bagger massive. no joke.
tis a thing of beauty. i compare this to freddie mac a couple years ago. started creeping they the street found out and drove it up. only difference here is this is a profit machine and based on different variable that will cause any massive price growth to sustain.