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DonShimoda = old timer. It's wonderful to hear from you. Your analysis is right on IMO.
Jess, keep in mind no matter what the path for Ariad, we will be around to see the next drug, or it just isn't working out. As Tim Clackson tried so hard to convey, things are moving forward with it, but nothing is certain.
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Great work, zuize. Major distinction. Given this news, it makes him and his new employer sound pretty pathetic.
Thanks,
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nsomniyak, again I was responding to the thread in which STOCKSEEK had speculated the following:
It is entirely possible that HB if they are in acquisition discussions or close to something cannot purchase equity in a broad way on the open market because of insider information.
He may however be able to exercise his options in advance of such an announcement because by default they could by virtue of the equity agreements get fully exercised on sale - so no insider conflict would exist.
If the speculated transaction were in the works, I'm not sure I would worry about diversification. Perhaps I'm just that foolish.
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SS, I don't believe the 10b5-1 plan needs to cover any option related purchases. If you mean the Option Agreement, I doubt such a requirement would ever be part of that program, but I've been wrong before. In fact I was very wrong about 11 months ago
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He's known these options expiration date for a good long time. Again, considering the speculation of STOCKSEEK that they may be in BO discussions, if he didn't have the smarts to liquidate other investments to fund the acquisition of the shares, we all have more problems with him in charge and making such a foolish move.
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Understood, but STOCKSEEK'S speculated that perhaps acquisition talks were taking place and that was the thread I was responding to. Considering that speculation, such tax planning and diversification would be foolish.
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SS, if something positive was happening, HB wouldn't have sold the shares to cover the cost and the taxes. He has the funds to cover that himself and he likely would have used that and kept the entire block of shares her received upon exercising.
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Thanks, SS.
SS, can you tell from your screen if they are going through at the bid or the asked price?
Thanks,
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ASTC...WTF, BOOOOOM!
br, IMO you couldn't be more wrong. He has a reputation to maintain and he likely has a plan as he anticipated HB and the BOD's moves. He may or may not have expected the rejection of his request at this point, but likely expected it at some point.
The BOD didn't insult him, they challenged him. His reputation is far more important to him than any of this bull. This situation is a reputation maker.
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br, I agree with what you are saying, but I think your target is too low. Denner wouldn't be trying for more shares at $6+ just to double his money.
I didn't see any comment on this board on the fact that HB didn't want this attempt by Denner disclosed and looks like he may take legal action.
Fellow shareholders...HB's interests aren't aligned with your interests. And for those of you that think that the "Poison Pill" had anything whatsoever to do with preserving NOLs, you're dead wrong. It had everything to do with what may very well unfold from here.
All bullish.
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I believe it was the first time IIverson issued such a warning. I don't even remember him posting it because I was one of those clever investors that ignored him.
I only read his warnings after the fact when 2damoon pointed them out and posted links to them.
Very true, dubstock. However, a few days before any such news, good or bad, you'll very likely see some movement in the stock. It's called illegal insider trading and it can be the true precursor to what is to come. Technical analysis can be helpful in identifying these moves.
In hindsight, there was trading that should have warned us before last October's crash. As I recall IIverson, a technical guy, was able to spot the danger and issued a warning.
Fortunately for those involved in such insider trading, the SEC will likely let it ride.
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Considering HB's personality and his past behavior, any guess as to what might happen if he were to navigate his way through a disagreement with an FDA bureaucrat?
Hmmm!
Awesome!!! He's talking shareholders into selling their shares.
Pazdur was just on CNBC (briefly) talking about compassionate use. The story is a result of the Ebola discussion.
greggors, I'm not sure that staffing for eventual failure is the only other option to staffing for success that may happen in the distant future.
As a CEO that dreams of bigger things (there is certainly nothing wrong with that)one should have the discipline to mind the expenses. While I believe there are a lot of great qualities that Dr. B possesses, fiscal discipline is not one.
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Unfortunately, Dr. Berger has built his staff and his headquarters under the assumption that some day his company will be a highly successful, stand alone oncology company. IMO this is the same mistake he made a year ago. I would have thought he may have learned a lesson from last October's set back. The fact that he learned nothing speaks volumes about him and none of it is flattering.
2da, I have to disagree with you on one point, I believe the company would be better off without HB.
HB, if it's at all possible that you pay attention to posts, please prove me wrong. I've been an HB supporter for over 15 years. Enough is enough.
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I'm not certain, but I believe by exercising now he would need to recognize the difference between the strike price ($1.29) and the market price. That would establish his tax basis and then any additional increase in price (hopefully) when he sells the shares would be at capital gain rates.
This may be just tax planning.
I've been away from this for a long while, but that's how it used to work.
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lax, I too would like to see Ariad sold, but not yet. Many may disagree, but I believe Iclusig is a (potentially) very valuable drug. Right now it's still in the "damaged goods" category. To sell now would be a mistake.
I think Denner gave HB until the fall of 2016 to pretty things up. At the expiration of the "poison pill" Denner will steamroll over HB and the rest of the board that doesn't see it his way.
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PS. I don't want to wait that long, but I'm going to.
It couldn't happen to a nicer guy!
Thanks, Iman. Hopefully it will be unexpectedly good.
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2da, I love you too man!
I don't care about the amount the Fed cost us. I'm very irritated that they feel free to chime in on the markets. It is just not their place. But, if I were to quantify the cost, I'd say at least 50 cents. Down 30 yesterday instead of up 20. How's that for specific? I may even add today's loss to that.
As far as the other $19-$20, I'll go long with you. Mistakes were made and they fall to the man at the top, HB.
What are the factors that are in stockholders control?
The same as the factors in stockholders control before this mess started last October...Nothing is in the stockholders control (except Denner). I believe if there are things being done that Denner has issues with, he'll make life miserable for the remaining Board members.
Now, it's your turn. Every time you say the convertible debt holders have shorted to hedge their position, I cringe. I feel like the more you say it without being challenged, the closer it gets to being the perceived truth.
I think you're talking about convertible debt that converts at a variable number of shares depending on the share price (ie. the lower the share price the more shares issued). This isn't that. I have the same question as before, how would shorting to hedge work under the newly issued convertible?
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Yesterday's trading was almost entirely Janet Yellen. I say, end the Federal Reserve or, at the very least, get rid of Yellen. I can't stand her whiney voice.
rum.
SR< That's how I should have said it.
I'm glad you have a sense of humor.
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after reading all these posts .. i always remember within a year before when we were waiting for the approval .. it was so risky but not worthy for me now i just wanna this damn stock to back right like before one week at $6.5
No drinking and posting allowed!
well said, 2da
Jess,
I hope you had a good 4th as well.
You are correct, my comments were all just my opinion based upon my observations.
With regard to the comment, is HB a madman? I certainly don't have the information to agree with that comment, and if I did I certainly would not continue to hold this stock.
Jess, regarding the comment, "I also believe that Denner is an activist investor but he fully concurred 100% with what the management put out in that meeting." I guess I just wouldn't put it that way, but I think they are on the same page in the recognition that Iclusig is an amazing drug and after getting smacked down, it needs time to get back on its feet.
Again, I'm guessing, but if things go as planned I believe there may be a showdown in 2016 with HB and Denner concerning the future of the company. I hope I'm correct and I'll look forward to that.
Let's all say a prayer for a good outcome with the European label
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Jess,
"Last November, some of you have given Denner 3/6 months to straighten things out at ARIAD including a buyout. Now he has been like a meek lamb following ARIADs management. Of course he has to."
Had you been at the Annual Meeting, you would have known that your statement (above)is absolutely wrong. He is anything but a meek lamb and HB knows that.
Through the last minute amendment to the "poison pill" HB was given until late 2016 to turn this Ariad ship around. I believe this was mostly Denner's work. He's willing to wait (but only so long) for the true value of Iclusig to be recognized and anything else is gravy.
All of this is of course IMO.
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I've been wrong before and I'm way beyond my knowledge zone here, but my impression was that it's very easy to know the sales numbers on Iclusig in Japan vs. any other country. When it gets to how much of Iclusig's sales in Japan were to treat one indication versus another it get a bit messier.
That was just how I heard it, but as I said, this isn't my thing.
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I think if HB would consider partnering "These other indications (neuro, PD, arthritis)" he would have mentioned that in his response to the question.
Like Jess, I took his response to be an across the board "no" to the idea. I suppose things could change, but that was my take on it.
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Mican, in reading the article, I found this curious:
"Roche has earned a reputation as a disciplined acquirer, prepared to walk away from potential deals rather than overpay."
"Chief Executive Severin Schwan abandoned a $6.8 billion deal to buy U.S gene sequencing company Illumina in 2012"
Current market cap of ILMN is over $23 billion. I have thought of a reputation to label Roche with, but it may get my post deleted. I will abandon my plans to acquire any shares of Roche.
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The mood of the meeting? Appropriately subdued. It has been a very difficult year and the pain of it was apparent. Having said that, I got no sense of any negative emotion regarding the future.
Don't read anything in the demeanor of Tim Clackson. He's that kind of person and personally I appreciate that.
It's easy to discuss the potential negatives many of us missed prior to last October. As I figure it, the discussions about AE's between Ariad and the FDA got out of hand. Mistakes were made, but there is no doubt in my mind that the FDA overreacted in a huge way.
The quotes from both the FDA and the company indicated very personal back and forth attacks. Totally inappropriate. The return of Iclusig to the market so quickly is more evidence that the FDA went way too far.
This situation badly damaged Ariad, but they are the same company with the same potential, although greatly damaged.
The old timers here need to stop kicking themselves in the ass for not seeing the future. Let's start thinking of a way to kick the FDA and Pazdur in the ass.
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The markets are surging ahead. Everything in my portfolio is between green and very green. Meanwhile this POS is fading a huge 5 cent pop for the day.
It's getting harder and harder to remain patient.
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Mershaw, I think your analysis is right on the money. Don't forget however, if the share price at expiration (or exercise) is $15 per share, Ariad will be issuing an additional 20 million shares at $12 per share. In this example they would be leaving $3 per share ($15 assumed price vs. $12 warrant strike) times 20 million shares on the table. The better the assumed future market price, the worse the deal.
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The vote on the Section 382 Rights Agreement (NOL protection or Poison Pill, depending on your perspective) was very close. Roughly 47 million to 38 million. I may be stating the obvious, but I believe the Amendment that was filed Tuesday evening was a negotiation that allowed it to pass. My takeaway from this is that HB wanted the protection but the institutions involved in the negotiations were okay with just 3 more years. My speculation is that Denner alone was the negotiating party, but that's pure guessing.
2da, while the BoD and Management gave serious consideration to your question of raising the price of Iclusig to reflect the orphan status that Iclusig effectively has, I thought their response was well thought out. I believe their feeling is that, if they were to raise the price significantly they would lose every patient except the ones with the T315I mutation. That T315I patient population for them is currently low. In order to make up for lost revenue from losing the other CML patients, they would have to raise the price at least 7 fold. They feel that isn't reasonable. Also, considering they are diligently working on moving Iclusig up in the overall CML indication, they wanted to maintain and grow a base of patients which they undoubtedly would lose at extremely inflated prices.
Lastly, I was able to spend some time with Ed Fitzgerald. I asked about the convertible offering. My question was primarily why put the $9.30 to $12.00 hedging transaction on at a net cost of $17 million and potentially 20 million more shares of dilution. The value of the protection seems to be the difference in the strike prices of $2.70 times 20 million shares or $54 million. It doesn't sound like a great deal to me. He gave a very thoughtful review of the alternatives available to Ariad and he clearly knew the subject very well. I left feeling that the convertible issue was a good deal and good idea, but I still don't believe the hedging was necessarily worth the money spent.
I think we all owe 2da a thank you for the time and effort he has made on our behalf.
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Yes, there is something amiss. HB wants those 2014 Options Grants to have as low a strike price as possible.
I'm anxious to see how the voting went. If the intention with the votes of the big and small guys was to send HB a message, he got the message and is answering back with a big eff you.
Harvey has his hands on some money and he'll spend it like a drunken sailor.
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