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Before this skirmish escalates to an all out war, I hope and believe HB will take the temperature of the institutional investors and will see the handwriting on the wall. I'm hoping he will support Denner's Board nominees and, in exchange, will be allowed to assist in the sale of Ariad.
I believe that once HB sees he will lose the war, he will opt to be a part of a sale and the glory that will go along with that. His other option is to fight and lose and walk out the door (pre sale) with his tail between his legs. He would really look like a fool having been ousted and then allow Denner to take 100% of the credit for the sale and rescue of the shareholders.
The alternative is that Denner spends a ton of money to fight and, more importantly, HB spends OUR money in this no win fight.
rum
Unexercised options cost Frank zero. That is not skin in the game..
I would venture a guess that most executive officers own shares of their companies at zero cost. The practice of exercising options and selling shares to cover the strike is very common.
However, in terms of trying to put employees interests aligned with shareholders, this ownership is certainly skin in the game.
rum
I don't disagree with you, BR. However, you need to also include his unexercised options as well to see what skin he has in the game.
rum
The reason everyone seems to get options at Ariad is that everyone is in Senior Management. Ariad is like a bank where even the tellers are VPs.
I only looked at the first Form 4 I came to, but often the expiring options are exercised and to make it so the employee is not out of pocket, he/she sells sufficient shares to cover the purchase of the remainder (and that is what was going on with the 4 I read). The ratio is a function of the strike price vs. the market value. This is very common nowadays.
rum
Each team's offense has its own footballs.
At this point this is all about keeping the news story going. The longer this continues, the more likely the Pats will lose. This is an extremely distracting situation and if Brady is unable to escape its influence, NE is screwed.
rum
BR, I don't believe Denner will give up so easily. He knew he was giving HB 3 years when he allowed the Poison Pill to go through. He'll wait it out and then when the PP expires, it will be a relatively easy task to force the sale of the company.
rum
If you want to know what HB's face looks like when he is telling a lie, watch the interview again and look at where he says (in response to the question about Denner):
"...he's part of a very involved Board of Directors..."
One thing I am confident about is that the BoD is not very involved. HB is an absolute control freak and always has been. In many circumstances this trait has served him well. However, a this conjuncture as Ariad CEO, that same trait is unproductive (IMO).
Can you see the facial differences when he is lying? Me neither. Scary.
rum
Good news guys. Ariad adds another VP
ARIAD Announces Appointment of Thomas J. DesRosier, Senior Pharmaceutical-Industry Counsel, as Chief Legal and Administrative Officer
rum
so to say that that's the only reason for staying ariad I think is not a very strong argument.
I wasn't trying to give you my argument, I was just telling you my reason for staying.
And to defend somebody who tries to undermine/marginalize the company...
Well, from my vantage point, BR's been mostly right on the money. The talk of how we have now turned the corner or it's the fault of the shorts or other manipulation, is just plain ridiculous. We've also heard that for the same 24/7. The PPS tells us who is right.
2da beat me to it, but the poison pill expires in Oct. or Nov. of 2016. HB hasn't got a prayer of being at Ariad past that date.
That's just my opinion.
rum
I'll admit it, Jess. I admit it's broken and I admit that I think it can be fixed. If fixed it will be worth much more than it is now.
I'll also admit that it will be fixed much quicker without HB.
What will you admit to? Other than the Hope and Change type scenario you've put forth thus far.
rum
BR... would you please stop just throwing this [insert expletive] against the wall in the hopes something will stick. It just adds no value to this board!
FloW, you sound frustrated. Can you imagine how frustrated BR is when he gives you the correct answer and reads nothing but foolishness like, it is the shorts, it is manipulation, it is consolidation.
Please, this is a broken company and a broken stock. Both of which are trying to make a comeback. Burying you head in the sand will not bring it back any sooner.
Will this company make it back. I believe it can and I hope it will, but this refusal to call a spade a spade it just crazy.
rum
If this violates $6, look out below..
Well, BR haven't you got the fancy lingo going on. Now that you have Ariad's drug BRigatinib named after you, your speech has become affected.
Before you get too full of yourself, I heard you barely beat out RUMatinib.
rum
Doesn't anyone wonder why they haven't told us the target of the new molecule?
Just curious. I see no plausible reason to withhold that info.
rum
That is well said, Amp.
While we don't have to agree on everything, we can attempt to understand "the other side" and I do understand those with an optimistic viewpoint.
For me, I am realizing that I no longer trust HB. I believe he is in this for his legacy. There is nothing wrong with that if it takes the shareholders along with that pursuit, but I don't believe he gives a damn about shareholders or patients.
Having said all this, I don't promise to stop posting my opinions, and I don't think anyone else should stop either.
After owning and continually purchasing this stock for the past 15 years,I will now look for opportunities to sell off my shares.
rum
SS, just for the record, some of us consider selling off pieces of the company to be dilution.
Someone a couple of days ago wisely said it was akin to selling your watch to buy lunch. Someone else replied that it depends on what kind of watch it was. We now know that Ariad is selling its finest watches. Now the important question becomes, how much "lunch" and what will they do with it.
From my perspective (which is that of an irritated long time holder) they are using the proceeds, at least partially, to pay a bloated CEO salary, salaries of 21 VPs and a lease worthy of a company much larger and more successful than Ariad.
HB reminds me of my younger son, when he gets his hands on some money he sits around contemplating how he can spend it. HB should be trimming to the bare bones and using the vast majority on drug trials.
rum
Vid, said another way, if Ariad's prospects looked golden, we would have been up a buck.
rum
There is a very powerful message in the press release. This has become a chess match between HB and Denner.
Denner wants to make as much on his investment in as little a period of time as is reasonable.
HB wants to hold onto his kingdom and re-establish his damaged legacy.
As I see it, today HB has out foxed Denner. With the poison pill expiring in a year and a half and the certain knowledge that Denner will undoubtedly be able to rally the shareholders to take the most profitable action, HB needed a way of extending his runway. Not the cash runway, but the HB Kingdom runway.
The partnering does both. It extends the cash runway and makes Ariad far less attractive to any potential buyer.
So Denner, I have to give this round to HB while you and the rest of us shareholders get taken to the cleaners.
A very sad day for Ariad, its shareholders and the patients that would benefit from bringing the exciting Ariad compounds to their full potential.
rum
Sorry, Mican but it is the HB discount. I don't believe he is to be trusted.
rum
Up $0.29 when I turned on my computer, Up $0.18 now. I'll stick with my earlier prediction and say we close red today.
rum
The stock reports from analysts are worth exactly what you pay for them. They charge nothing because they are worthless. Generally, they run positive on a stock if they feel that their investment banking department has a shot at getting some business.
And the "Chinese Wall" between investment banking and the stock analysts is pure bull.
So there you go, Credit Suisse is as good as the rest...worthless.
rum
I believe Merrill's price target was set by Rachell McMinn (Ithink that was her name) before she departed Merrill. She was totally ticked off by HB's lies and she was made to look foolish. I often wonder if the Ariad mess contributed to her departure.
br, your point is taken on the other targeted prices, but as 2da and others have pointed out, nobody is placing value on 113 r the new drug.
rum
puravida, you won't have to listen through the call. If Ariad decides to announce the new drug during the conference, they would certainly be required to issue a press release beforehand.
I'm not holding my breath on this, but if it happens it will be a pleasant surprise.
It would be nice if one of the analysts on the call would press HB as to the plans moving forward and, more importantly, how he intends to finance those plans.
rum
One more thing, it's just my guess, but I believe Ariad stock closes down on the day the new drug is announced (unless it is a real blockbuster). The reason is, I think the announcement will generate interest in Ariad, but investors will soon question how the company would pay to move the drug forward. The only answer, dilute.
Before you try and demean someone for their suggestions to the company, why not consider where Ariad would be today if they adopted the suggestions made by 2da.
Two of 2da's suggestions were; 1)adjust the pricing of Iclusig so the lower dose aren't necessarily getting a wholesale price and, 2)apply for Iclusig to be an orphan drug and get commensurate pricing.
Better still, maybe you have some good solid suggestions as to ways the company might better move forward. Let's here them rather than trying to insult one of the posters with genuine suggestions.
rum
Depends on the brand of watch. Maybe the lunch is worth more.
Actually, the more important issue in this analogy would be, "what will they do with the lunch?"
Even if they do nothing productive, HB still gets his salary and some more options. It would be nice if we tied the compensation to productive action instead of just selling off the watches.
rum
I mean, look at those who said ARIA would have to dilute soon last fall. Then ARIA comes up with multi millions, making deals and agreements. Who knew that was coming?
Not BiP
Not 2demoon
Lex, I'm confused. Are you saying that 2da was wrong in his predictions regarding dilution? Your statement that "ARIA comes up with multi millions" tells me you are aware of the several dilutions that have occurred since the crash, but perhaps you don't consider selling off a company's valuable assets to be dilution.
That's just plain scary.
It's a shame people who talk about the increase in the value of Ariad, don't concentrate on the increase in market cap and then talk about the drastic increase in either shares outstanding, debt levels or sales of other valuable assets. All of those events are dilution and the subsequent squandering of the proceeds is shameful.
But, don't worry HB will continue to draw his substantial salary and will award himself plenty more options.
rum
Hmmm? I stood beside 2da at the annual meeting when he suggested that very move and was given some BS reply as to why that wouldn't be a wise idea.
rum
ARIAD Announces Phase 2 Dose-Ranging Trial of Iclusig (Ponatinib) to Begin by Mid-2015
Rum, I don't want to contradict you but if I could remember right your post of about 3/4 weeks ago, you predicted that ariad would be sold I think in early part of 2015(please correct me if I'm wrong)
I don't remember that, Jess. And I doubt it. Please keep in mind, I don't remember who put this piece of gum in my mouth either.
rum
I don't think it's a sound investment strategy to say that you're only here to wait for the buyout. What if the BO doesn't come and the odds here is that HB will never sell ariad for a mere chump change and that will take time before it happens.
I would generally agree with you 100%. I even agree that HB will never sell ariad. Where we differ is that I believe, and am willing to bet a lot of money, that as of October 2016 the company will be on firm footing (unlikely) or HB will be very sad to realize that the shareholders actually own the company and they will be in charge of whether or not a sale takes place.
Denner is not here for a double of his investment. If he were he wouldn't bother with a seat on the Board. He wants more shares and HB was able to keep that from happening so he went the Convertible Debt route (not preferable, but better than nothing).
By October 2016, we will all be (relatively) happy.
rum
Maven, not looking for an argument, but consider the perspective of the different writers when defining "old news" vs. "good news"
One on the other side of the aisle would possibly say that the effectiveness of pona, and the promise of 113 are the old news and that is what is well defined.
The problem is and was, where is the money going to come from?
New partnerships, stock offerings, sales of assets?
All these events really stink. {'m with you in the belief that Ariad will be worth more with added research and testing. But I also believe that any increase in the value of Ariad will be more than offset by the dilution that will be needed to fund the research. In other words, the market cap. will increase,but the per share value will suffer.
The only "out" is a sale.
It's my belief (and I've said it before) that Denner was the one who got the 3 year poison pill passed. The original proposal, as I recall, was open ended and didn't have the votes. I believe it was Denner who gave HB 3 years to get the company back on track, or he'll do what needs to be done. Sell the company.
rum
Jess, finally we are in complete agreement. Thank you for this summary of events. It truly is pathetic that even with all the good things going for it, Ariad is so disliked and distrusted that the difference year over year is 2 cents. So very sad! Thanks again, Jess.
Compare the two January start -
1. January 2014: pps is 6.87...look at the last 6 months before Jan 2014.
- flash crash happened in October 2013
- Denner came in Novemeber 2013
- pona reinstated in Dec. 2013
2. January 2015: pps is 6.89...look at the last 6 months before Jan 2015.
- EMA recommended continued use of Iclusig
- 113 BTD'd in October 2014
- good data/studies for pona at ASH 2014 in December 2014.
- Japan partnership sealed in Dec 2014
- distribution agreement sealed with Angelini pharma in Dec 2014
- announced in December 2014 a confirmed release of New
molecule data in January 2015.
How could even one investor not see the difference?...jmo.
SS, I did a one year chart and it shows ARIA down 3.64% while the IBB was up roughly 37%. In my book that's completely pathetic.
The reason I (and many others)am still here is we know how impatient Denner must be getting. I'm sure he is getting some serious pressure from his own investors.
A couple of the people here like to concentrate on 3 predictions of some from the other camp. 1) the $2 pps prediction. As I remember this, that figure was stated in a bit of a "tongue in cheek" way as the $2 bottom that was already in after the crash. Not really a prediction. 2)Bankruptcy. This prediction (I don't recall the exact context), but it certainly hasn't come true. 3) Ariad would trade sideways for 5 years. Well, this one has been accurate thus far. If I thought it were an accurate prediction, I'd be gone, but it's been spot on so far.
Happy New Year to you and all others here.
rum
In the biotech world "Nominate" is a term that comes from the latin language.
Nom, or nominal refers to very small, or existing in name only.
Inate, or innate refers to originating in the mind only.
So you see, the new molecule originated in HB's mind and it is just a name "Nmole."
Seriously, this is the M.O. of the old HB. Over promise and under deliver. Therewas a short time when he seemed to have changed and stuck to his self imposed deadlines, but that was short lived and he is back to his old self.
rum
Ariad mentioned a couple of times this morning as a potential biotech takeover in 2015. They mentioned about 4 different companies and Ariad was mentioned first each time. I wasn't listening close enough to know if it was alphabetical order.
rum
BR, I don't often disagree with you, but I believe Maria Cantor only knows what the higher-ups want presented to the public. When I ask her a question, I always feel she tells me everything she knows. That only works if you only know "the public line."
I'm not trying to dis Cantor, but that's my take and I've always felt this way.
Also, while you and I and most here understand the benefits of holding for better days (and prices), not everyone feels that way.
I have two sons, one is holding onto options at his (now private) company and was recently offered an opportunity to cash them in...he declined. My other son (while he hasn't been presented with the same opportunity), would not doubt take the money and run (and he is a very intelligent guy). Just different mindsets.
rum
PS. Happy Thanksgiving to all.
This is the second 25,000 share purchase under the Plan. Does anyone know the details of the Plan? I looked through the SEC filings, but found nothing. I'm guessing that it does not have to be filed.
If my recollection is correct, Harvey said at the Shareholders' Meeting that he intended to purchase 150,000 shares.
Yes, it is paltry compared to the shares he sold, but it approaches $1,000,000 and that's more than pocket change.
Having said that, I do think he is doing it primarily to "keep appearances up."
rum
BR, this is good news. If it was not part of a Plan, that would mean there is nothing material going on. I'm hopeful that this is not the case. I'm cheering for a buyout announcement by early 2015.
rum
2da,
Sorry, missed the year.
I agree. I have a bunch of Jan 16, 5's as well. I sold Jan 16, 10's and 12's against some of them.
I hope all is well. I do get your messages on occasion, but can't respond as I'm too cheap to be a paying customer.
rum
Still liking the Jan 16 5's.
Be careful, 2da. I'm not willing to bet any money, but my guess is that we see no announcement regarding the new drug during 2014.
Just guessing though. Based on HB's track record, I give it a less than 50-50 chance.
rum