Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
2da did a great job of letting the company representatives know what his concerns, questions and issues are.
2da, as you said, as shareholders (owners) of this company, we should have the right to know the answers to many of the questions you asked. Especially regarding the issues around ethics that Denner brought forward. The problem is, you would only get those answers by involving a good attorney. I suspect, in the end, you'll learn more but not enough that will give you any satisfaction as these issues are very difficult to litigate successfully.
For now we can take some comfort that while Denner isn't necessarily on our side, his interests seem to be aligned with ours.
As Mican noted earlier today (or yesterday) your investment in Ariad is DEAD money (until it isn't).
rum
PS. I have to hand it to the Company representatives, they hung in there until all questions were exhausted.
With regard to the Annual Shareholders' Meeting you may note the last sentence of the letter to shareholders' in the proxy.
Because we are holding the Annual Meeting in late July this year, the Company will be providing a corporate update at its quarterly earnings call in August this year rather than at the Annual Meeting.
It sounds like it is going to be a big disappointment to many!
rum
FWIW, my guess is that the CT Order has to do with the new molecule. Keep things close to the vest until it's ready for prime time.
With regard to the change in venue of the Annual Meeting, my guess is simply that Denner wants to be on more comfortable turf. Cambridge is HB's home.
And finally, regarding the short interest, I love the shorts. They are guaranteed buyers of Ariad stock. I wish we had 50% short interest. Many thin the shorts are more informed than the longs. In biotech that's not necessarily true. Many short the Biotechs because the majority will flame out. I'm sure they are also hedged.
rum
When the company line re. a 113 Partnership is changed (and I believe it will be) it will be done by someone other than Clackson and it will be much more than a paragraph in an interview. An explanation as to why it is in Company's best interest and an assurance that the new direction isn't due to the inability to ell the Partnership.
The Annual Shareholders' Meeting may be the best time.
rum
2da, you've been very consistent about your thought that a transaction/sale of Ariad would roughly coincide with the expiration of the Poison Pill.
Considering that the PP can be over ridden by the BOD, and the BOD likely is Denner(period), why do we wait. I understand waiting until 113 gets approval or some other product related event, but the PP doesn't seem to be an obstacle. Plus I prefer a sale sooner rather than later. I'd gladly give a buyer a "risk discount" as I am too familiar with risk in this stock.
rum
I think it was decided the party would be at either Foxy's or The Soggy Dollar Bar in Jost Van Dyke.
Fitz exercised those options 5 months before the expiration date. He appears to have netted $1.24 per share.
He's a shorttimer IMO. Denner's first victim.
rum
I believe Denner will have the entire Board behind his plans for the company.
He's a very bright man and he'll make a very strong case.
rum
Numbnuts? Grow some cojones?
Of whom do you speak?
I'm hoping it's not Denner since that just doesn't seem to be a reasonable position to take with what has transpired.
rum
greggors, I'll stand with you and hope that this isn't the first.
rum
HEAR, HEAR...Mican.
Sell soon or sell years down the line when the potential of these assets is realized? It's all about risks and placing estimates on the revenues if the potentials are realized.
Personally, I'll take my chances pre-realization. I've seen what the emergence of a risk can do to my net worth.
I fear Denner may choose the other route, but I really think he will move sooner rather than later.
I'll repeat my estimate again. $15 is my over/under number. Less I'm disappointed, but I'll take it. More and I'm happy.
While I'd be wildly happy with some of the estimates others have, I just don't think they are within reason.
rum
BR, unless I've missed something I really don't see an issue with Denner being reelected to the Board. However, I would love to see this sold ASAP.
rum
I'm not seeing new filings today, yet.
I wonder if all the stock grants identified yesterday by the Form 4s were a result of "employee stay" bonuses to keep key people from leaving considering the change in leadership.
Just a thought.
rum
Just on CNBC a report on Cambridge, MA real estate for biotechs. It is scarce and rents are climbing very fast.
Should be good news for Ariad's excess rental space.
rum
Okay, Dr. Denner here is an idea. You're flush with cash and more investors want in.
I say sell Ariad sooner rather than later. The difference should be a discount for risk and an adjustment for the time value of money.
Sell in a stock-for-stock exchange with a top rated large biotech or big pharma. The shares of the new company get distributed. Shareholders as well as Sarissa LP's and GP's can choose when to recognize their capital gains. Not only will Denner get credit for making their Partners multiples on their investment, but he will have done so in a tax efficient way.
Whatta guy!
rum
Just a guess, but I would think it would be difficult for Denner to navigate the insider trading rules since he is, in effect, at the helm of both Ariad and Sarissa. If I'm correct, no sense in changing the Poison Pill.
rum
Dew, now that Berger is nearly out, might you be coming back into ARIA?
rum
Google, SEC section 10 b5-1
You'll get more info than you want. Going just from memory, the Plan of sale is typically an orderly sale and while it may not be set in stone, changing it may put the insider in jeopardy of violating insider trading rules.
HB was selling according to a similar Plan when the AF article caused so much concern. In a special conference call HB stated he would be buying Ariad stock if he could while, in fact, he was selling shares in accordance with a previously established Plan. It was a very poor choice of words.
My understanding is that he has little discretion once the Plan is filed.
rum
I'm fairly certain that these votes don't just disappear. My guess is that someone is using Schwab to gather loaned shares (therefore votes) and for very little money they are buying these votes. Again I'm guessing, but it is probably perfectly legal. Keep in mind we aren't voting for public office where something like this would be illegal.
We don't know which camp is behind this, but another guess is that it is clearly the "desperate" camp.
Keep track of your shares and make sure you are allowed to vote each and every one of them.
rum
zuize, we are on the same page with one small difference.
I don't think Denner wants to hold the company and wait for the possibilities. That's a huge assumption on my part.
So, if I were the head of a large pharma, how much would I pay for this potential? There are a lot of ifs, ands and buts between now and the (likely) approval and I wouldn't want my butt on the line by paying today what it might be worth tomorrow.
What's the discount? Today, my discount is as good as yours. If you or Jess or someone else is correct, I promise to be here to congratulate you (and me at the same time).
rum
Bean, I've been wrong before, but from my memory mostly the mocking has continued since Pona came back and mostly to keep the memory of the prediction alive.
Again, I may be wrong, but the sideways has also been brought up mostly in an effort to keep the mocking of the original post alive.
That's my recollection. All the best.
rum
SS, with the exception of 2da, I don't see anyone giving any solid calculations of support for the numbers they are pulling out of the air.
I hate to be in a position of being in support of the most hated poster on the board (BR), but he is approaching everything as an extreme skeptic. With the history of the company all of us should be extreme skeptics.
The mocking of predictions of bankruptcy? Wow, had the FDA not allowed Pona back on the market can someone else explain the outcome for this company?
The trading sideways for 5 years? It's just my opinion, but without Denner involved can someone else manage a guess as to the share price right now? Maybe it would be all the way up to $6 or $7 and change. After holding through the Oct. 2013 mess, I would call that sideways even from the $5 mark.
As far as the potential price in a buyout...2da, I love your ideas, but 113 isn't even approved yet. Pona's worth little based on today's revenues. And the new molecule...even if it's a potential cure for Alzehimers, it's only in a petri dish.
My over/under is at $15. anything under I'll be a little disappointed, anything over I'll be very happy.
rum
dontryme, that is the point I was trying to support as well (obviously not very well).
While I wouldn't say there is never any manipulation going on, it's an excuse that is way too overused.
For those who see a continuing pattern of manipulation, why not use this information to your advantage. If you feel the share price will be held below a particular strike price on expiration day, place your bet and make a fortune. I hope to be smart enough to spot such a simple pattern some day. When I do, I'll bet the farm and make a fortune rather than moan about after the market closes. This paragraph wasn't directed at you, dontryme.
rum
Sunshine, it's really very simple. People have to have someone or something to blame.
In some ways it's like bigotry, everyone has to be better than someone. It makes no sense, we make up nasty names to call them and voila, you have a boogeyman to blame.
rum
Mican, the skeptic in me thinks that the buyer of all those Calls yesterday may have had advance knowledge of the bizjournal article and overestimated its impact.
I'd happily be proven wrong by some better news later this week.
rum
PS. my guess remains that HB is looking for a White Knight.
A video about how Ariad is carefully conserving their limits funds in order to push through the trials necessary to bring their drugs to maximum profitability would have been nice. Or, no video, just be smart with the money.
rum
PS. Ariad's share price has been doing great since the Denner announcement. Up days and down days, it's held up well and I believe it is all because of the potential to put this company in the hands of an organization that can maximize what has been developed to date.
Thanks, mican.
Nevertheless, it was nothing short of an attempt to spook the long shareholders.
The good news, now we know what FDA.com is good for...nothing!
rum
My guess is Dr. B is looking for a "white knight." The buyout happens and he has some control. Both he and Denner declare big victories.
JMO,
rum
2da recommended they change Iclusig pricing to Orphan status to a couple of the Board members at the last Annual Shareholders' meeting. My impression was the Board was not considering that for all indications as it was thought that it would interfere with the efforts to bring Iclusig back into earlier lines of use.
With regard to the favorable price action today, I'd like to believe it is either some Denner friends buying, or Dr. B is bringing in a White Knight that's gobbling up some cheap shares.
However, the volume is probably too low for one of these optimistic "pipe dreams."
rum
Greggors,
What event are the shorts waiting for...or is this just Denner and hedge crew manipulating the share price?
My apologies, I was really responding to Sunshine and while he has one of those curly things as well, I really wasn't attempting to answer his question as much as point out that so many here talk of manipulation (mostly to allow shorts to cover). Sunshine is likely curious just like I am and have been for a long time how one pulls off these fetes.
If you would like to take a shot at that question, that would be great. I've asked a few times on this board and nobody has given a reasonable reply.
With regard to your first question about the current short thesis, I'm just not smart enough to answer that, in fact, I don't even know what the question means. That's what happens when you drop out of school after the 6th grade to help out on the family farm.
All the best,
rum
Sunshine, that's the question that no one can explain. The number of times people here claim a price decrease is due to the hedgies driving down the price in order to be able to cover their shorts or the hedgies manipulating the stock, is staggering.
Not one of these posters can explain how that might be done which means they have no clue what they are talking about.
rum
I propose that if the selling price is $15.00 or less, we go to a selected bar in Cambridge. If the selling price is more than $15.00, the we go to either the Soggy Dollar Bar or Foxy's. Both are in Jost Van Dyke, British Virgin Islands. In fact, let's hit them both.
How about it you high rollers? Mican, 2da, are you guys in too?
rum
BR, do you subscribe to get this info or is available for everyone?
rum