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BR, far more impressive than a couple of people selling, is the number of those who did not sell. That coupled with the fact that these shares were acquired well before their expiration (if I'm reading this correctly) tells me good things are ahead. I don't know how far ahead, but I find this very encouraging.
rum
PS. I can explain why I think those that sold did so, but it wouldn't be very flattering to them.
BR, you are correct, but you can't know Marty's financial situation.
Far more impressive is the fact that others did not sell to cover taxes.
All very impressive (if I'm correct) is they seem to be exercising their right to acquire the shares well in advance of the expiration date. If this is the case, it tells me that they are positioning themselves to be able to recognize long-term capital gains rather than short -term upon what they maybe guessing is an upcoming sale.
Granted this same thought process would likely show that the closing of this hypothetical sale is a year out, but that doesn't mean they won't get in sale mode soon.
I'm expecting to see some excellent price action beginning Feb. 23rd (four days after my Feb options expire, it figures).
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BR, Ariad is a relatively small and risky company. In order to entice certain talent, they may be offering titles.
In other words, a scientist in the biotech field may have an opportunity to go with a larger and more stable company and be a researcher or he may have an opportunity with Ariad and could be a vice president.
It may be enough to entice people that are on the fence.
Just a thought.
rum
BR, all things considered (ie. including the possibility of a sale), one would expect at least a neutral.
My guess is he may be doing a client a favor and allowing them to accumulate.
I know this sounds a bit like a conspiracy theory, but I can't think of a good reason to come out now with a sell rating.
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I'm not sure anyone would pay a significant premium to the shareholders for "The Science Team" unless they each have rock-solid employment contracts.
Without such contracts, any buyer would certainly prefer to use that premium to lock down the scientists rather than giving it to the shareholders.
My hope is that now that the PP is no longer in effect, Denner will take his first opportunity to increase Sarissa's stake. I'm not certain, but I believe that time frame will be right after the nextearnings release. Typically there is a two week window that insiders can buy/sell (I think).
Once Sarissa's stake is increased, I'm hopeful that Denner will begin an effort to sell the company. Of course, one the market realizes Denner is a buyer, the price will likely head north very nicely.
Wouldn't all that be nice.
rum
From my recollection, that $2.00 claim was not made by 2da. The poster that made what came to be referred to as a prediction said something to the affect, "$2.00 should be the floor." This was in the midst of the terrible Oct. 2013 trading action.
That statement quickly was turned into (by the cheerleader crowd on this board) the poster made a prediction that Ariad would be at $2.00 per share.
In it's re-interpreted form of a $2.00 prediction, the cheerleaders quickly declared victory. They have been using that misinterpretation ever since as proof that they are correct about something.
Unfortunately for you, me and probably every other poster here, the cheerleaders on this board have been wrong at every turn. Just look at a 1yr, 3yr, 5yr, 10yr and 20yr chart. The cheerleaders on the board (which makes up about 90% of the posters) Have been wrong at every single turn.
Someday I hope they are correct, but until then I would tone it down if I were one of those misguided folks.
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PS Merry Christmas to all.
2da, no options traded on KBIO. At least none that I know of. Too dangerous to go short or long.
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Shire is stepping up the pressure to acquire Baxalta.
Baxalta needs to come back and make a realistic offer for Ariad.
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I disagree, BR. I think a well thought out response will be given. However, we won't get nearly the satisfaction from the response as we are getting from 2da's very well crafted letter.
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Thanks, Sully.
Your experience with Investor Relations, "As we have seen in the past, no answer is generally the pattern from Ariad" is very disturbing. and completely unacceptable.
2da has written a couple of excellent letters. It will be interesting to see the answers, but I'm not on the edge of my seat.
Hopefully this latest dip into the 5's was all window dressing and we are done with that for awhile.
I noticed my message was deleted. I just don't understand that. Perhaps it was my reference to the other message board. It's hard to read nothing but cheerleading all the time. If the stock is down, it's manipulation or, even better it's the shorts holding it down so they can cover. Wow!
Where in FL are you? It's freakin hot down here.
Very good letter, 2da. eom
I love the shorts!!! They are guaranteed buyers and occasionally they don't care what the price is (short squeeze).
How can you not love them?
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This is the worst kind of greed and it paints the entire industry in the same light.
I've thought about the generic possibility all day. I don't have an answer, but I suspect that, between the cost of developing the generic and the very small market that this drug serves, it just isn't worth it.
I'd love to see some Health Institute get involved with the FDA, push some generic through and market it for $5 per dose.
That would be just what the little snot-nosed Shkreli would deserve.
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BR, I think you know the answers to your own questions, but I'll give you my take anyway.
In October, 2013 there were big mistakes made. Devastating mistakes. Based on the interviews and quotes released in the press at the time, it appears to me that both Ariad and the FDA were wrong, but since it really all fell on Ariad they get the lion's share of the blame.
Analysts were burnt in a big way and didn't see it coming. Very embarrassing.
IMO, analysts aren't as good at what they do as many would believe. Most are just number jockeys. I would venture a guess that 2da knows more about Ariad than any of those analysts.
Having said that; a) Ariad remains toxic to many, b) the analysts just aren't that good, and c) the values they publish are very rarely "buyout" values.
I haven't looked at Shimoda's comments, but if they are as you said, I'm thinking he may just be wrong. I too think very highly of him, but those figures you mention just don't make sense.
I think the request by a couple of funds to increase their ownership says a lot. If I had to guess I'd say they may know Denner better than they would admit.
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Thanks Lax. Very comprehensive.
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I'm very rusty, but the last I heard (quite a while back) was that the tax loss carryforwards for corporations could only be used by the corp. that generated the loss. If that's true, the losses would have value, but not like the good old days.
While that was the stated reason, I'm sure HB didn't like the prospect of fending off a $5.00 hostile offer.
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fan,
Thanks for the response. I would point out that your reply reminds me a little of some of the political conversations on other boards. When someone posts something that has no basis, if it agrees with your opinion you accept it. If it disagrees with your opinion, it seems wrong that they would post that as fact when it certainly isn't.
As an example, often when the stock is declining while many others rise, it's said by many to be manipulation. It's often even claimed that it's the shorts organizing an orderly withdrawal. First, I suspect it is beyond anyone's ability here to figure that out in real time. And second, when shorts cover they are buying which tends to create rising prices.
Anyway, my real question is for the MODERATORS. Why on earth would my earlier post have been deleted. It can't be just because I supported BR.
rum
Sorry BR. It's the World Conference on Lung Cancer.
Denver, Sept 6-9
I'm awake now.
Thanks for the heads up.
rum
AACR Meeting next week.
BR, Thanks the response. JMO, but I believe Denner is in control. I also didn't think Denner would hang onto the company this long.
However, I believe he sees much greater value as a couple of the potential positives of the company mature.ie. Brig and improved sales of Pona.
I'm hopeful that the future value is reasonably better and think the $20+ is possible.
rum
BR, every one of our posts exposes your thought that I and many others here are just plain stupid and don't get it since we continue to be long.
I totally get what you are telling me. I even will admit that you may well be correct and I'm just not that bright.
But you seem to fully understand all the great points you share with us and you still hold much of your Ariad shares.
So which of us is the real fool?
rum
BR, I think Denner, et al weren't ready to sell unless they got a great price. What that translates to today is anybody's guess. If he was anxious to sell, I don't think he would have engineered HB's departure. He would more likely entered into an agreement that Denner was in charge and left him there as a token.
I'm now hopeful that with the progression of the Pona trials and the (hopefully) approval of Brig, we can look to offers in the $20+ range as 2da and others have speculated.
I'm as anxious as anyone to move on, but waiting a bit longer for a significantly better upside should prove to be well worth it.
How's that for drinking a little Kool-Aid?
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In reading this article it surprises me that the author makes no mention of an activist investor in Ariad. Considering the subject it would seem to be a fairly important point.
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vid, I understand the calculation involved, but surely you didn't do this yourself.
I looked at a 3 yr and 5 yr comparison of aria and ibb. It appears to this untrained eye that it has either no correlation or maybe even a negative correlation, depending on the time period.
Logically (according to my logic), I would expect the beta to be higher when compared to the S&P as the IBB is in the same sector. However with the IBB at 1.7 vs the S&P at 1.3 that doesn't appear to be the case.
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vid, how did you come up with the beta vs. the IBB. I usually think of a beta comparing to the S&P 500. Aria's is 1.3.
Thanks,
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fan, don't be so skeptical. He's just being a nice guy.;)
Great day today. Very encouraging.
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If my memory serves me, I remember BTH selling a boatload of his shares at $13.50 on ARIA's drive toward $20-25 and ultimately the Oct. 2013 crash. BTH did very well, but I haven't seen a post from him in a long time.
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I expect they are in talks. That wouldn't need to be disclosed as it may not come to anything. I'm praying it does come to something.
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Confirmed offer per CNBC
If Denner has a large horde of cash and he is borrowing on margin, then I'm selling Ariad. He'd be classified as a fool.
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Anybody remember Cruiser or Fundamentalist?
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Not smart enough to understand that logic, BOD.
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Buyout delayed is why the pps is down. Those hoping for a quicker turnaround via a buyout are moving out.
Those who believe that 113 is the drug that will lift this company, should be rejoicing. While this doesn't preclude a partnership of 113, I think this deal speaks as to Denner's feeling about a Partnership, ie. it's not in the cards.
Same with the buyout talk. This deal doesn't preclude a buyout, but it indicates that Denner want something much closer to full value for 113.
This is not the way I wanted it to go, but I believe the price we sell for will likely be much higher. Of course the risk to getting there is much higher as well.
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I wonder if today's trading has anything to do with Putnam adding additional shares as indicated in the last 8K.
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we missed mican at the meeting, but we met a new owner, derkleinprinz. He is traveling back to Frankfurt today, but maybe we will get some of his observations once he gets home.
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