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Come on Vid, just because BR doesn't beat the drum constantly for you stock, or 2da doesn't like the "deal" Denner made with Harvey, they are automatically short?
You guys are brutal. An alternative voice on the Ariad message board in early Oct 2013 would have been priceless.
This reminds me of what is going on this very instant in Washington DC.
Everyone should get a voice without being labelled short.
rum
Jess, understood and good luck.
I was lucky enough to have bailed out of all of my shares, some of which dated back 18 years, in the pre-market on the day of the release. Average sale price was just over 23.95. I was very lucky.
One more long-shot for staying in (and I don't know if it's at all possible), but if tax laws are changed between now and the close of the sale, and rates are reduced, and for some reason the change isn't retroactive, all the people urging you to get out will sing a different tune.
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Let's for the sake of discussion that Takeda initiate a breakup of the agreement for some reason not ariad related, they(Takeda) would have to pay the breakup fee as Jbog articulated
That would be great. I'd buy my shares back at about $12. If the next deal comes along, even better.
There's an excellent chance that this transaction will be consummated, but in the world of Trump and his tweets, you're taking an outsized risk.
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Vid, $15 was my over/under price. If we went to that and above, I would have slowly liquidated. I'm fortunate that it jumped the way it did.
BR and Rick, I wouldn't count on the repeal of the tax since Obamacare is still in place and likely will be for the entire year. I'm hoping I am wrong.
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Congratulations to all longs. They got more than I would have guessed.
I've been in this since 1999 and I'm now completely out at $23.95, average this am. Depending on what happens to the share price, I may get back in.
All the best, boys and girls!!!
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What Adam Feuerstein Got Right and Wrong About Biotech Stocks in 2016
AF is negative on Ariad and the stock doubles in 2016. He gives himself a grade of Incomplete.
That's a little peek into this moron's skills.
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Hi mican,
I would say that Denner has an obligation, first and foremost, to not break the law.
This is applicable whether or not he is the CEO of Ariad. If he receives insider information on any holding or any stock he doesn't hold, he would be in a similar predicament.
Of course, with Ariad, by virtue of his position the situation is far more likely.
You did mention a situation that happens often and is never addressed. A person who is in possession of insider information can choose to "not act" and will never be held accountable for obvious reasons. In other words, if someone decided to sell shares ahead of an event and later found out some positive insider information, they could change their decision without fear of being caught.
Anyway, my 2 cents. You get what you pay for.
rum
TC, you're likely correct. No regulation. Personally I think it more likely that he allow for negotiated drug prices, much the way other countries bring prices of pharma drugs way down.
2da's right, Denner is playing with fire by waiting to sell.
JMOs
rum
IMO, option protection for Ariad is very expensive. Ariad is relatively thinly traded and also relatively volatile.
I think those two reasons (perhaps others) factor into the high cost.
rum
The feeling in my stomach is the same feeling as that I felt in Oct. 2013.
I can't say which is worse.
rum
Vid
Wow, as far as I can tell, 2da is the only one on this message board doing any real analysis of this company and he's been very willing to share.
Of course much of this is my opinion, but after pona was basically relegated to a very small population by the FDA's actions, adjusting the pricing to a level that would allow a return on the development costs makes very good sense. 2da saw that immediately. It took the company years.
I understand your disagreement with 2da over his attempts to see that Denner is accountable for certain things, but the price increase was and is a good idea.
Your anger should be directed at AF, as he is the real scoundrel.
rum
I don't think the source of our trouble is poor old Bernie. Adam F. ran the same play 3 years ago that he ran last week. He was able to identify a weakness in Ariad's story. He wrote a hit piece connecting dots, and then sent his story to the place it would do the most damage to Ariad.
Three years ago his hit piece went to the FDA, this latest hit piece was sent to Bernie. It's really brilliant (and possibly illegal if not immoral).
Adam F. is the POS our anger should be directed at, and I wish Denner could think of a strategy to destroy the jerk.
Poor old Bernie is simply a dupe and Cummings...well if I don't have anything nice (or even neutral) to say about him, I'll shut my mouth.
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808,
My hands are all bloodied up from catching falling knives.
rum
Why isn't anybody talking about a buying opportunity?
Prior to yesterday I had sold about 40% of my position (much of it at some relatively lower prices). I'm happy to be able to reload now and will continue to do so if the price continues down.
It sounds like you guys have forgotten when we were in the 4s or the 5s, etc.
$11 and change isn't horrible and it gives some a chance to get back in.
rum
I have been complaining (mostly on Facebook) about Hillary and others going after the Pharma industry while giving a total pass to the universities around the country.
I believe you'll find their costs far outpaced that of inflation.
Now we have Mr. Free College For All, Bernie Sanders going after Pharma. Forget free college, investigate the universities and leave those that provide life saving drugs alone.
And BTW, the only student loans issued should be done by the colleges themselves. If a student doesn't make enough to repay, well the cost falls where it belongs.
rum
Michael Yee on CNBC
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000558126
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Back when Ariad's convertible issue was sold, there were a few people on this board that spoke about an arbitrage opportunity to purchase the convert while shorting the common.
I really never saw the benefit of doing that, but if it were true many of those shorts may stay in place regardless of the share price and will likely not participate in a squeeze.
rum
Retail investors make comments to management all the time which are disregarded
Very true vid, but you have to admit that very few of them make these kinds of statements directly (face-to-face) to the Chairman of the Board and fewer still are later proven to be right on the money.
You have to hand it to 2da, it took Ariad getting a new President, a new Chairman and how many years to figure out what 2da saw almost immediately.
rum
Cramer is a complete loser. His only talent is to tell viewers what the market did that day.
His picks lag will behind the S&P. He revels in his few good calls and accepts the blame for one out of ten of his screw ups. When he does admit a mistake, he does in a way that makes it sound like it is one of his rare misses.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jim-cramer-doesnt-beat-the-market-2016-05-13
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Hey, shiver me timbers, it's talk like a pirate day maties.
We go through this every month. These sales are part of a Rule 10b5-1 Plan adopted by Clackson on December 3, 2015.
He's been selling all along and clearly isn't doing so because of some imminent danger.
He continues to hold 229,000 shares.
rum
If I'm not mistaken, I believe Denner purchased a bunch of the Convertible debt that was issued a while back. Those underlying shares didn't violate his standstill, but if and when he converts they would have if the standstill agreement and the poison pill remained in place.
rum
Jess, I believe I mentioned in a prior post...I'm too lazy. I will say that I admire all the work and the persistence of 2da.
I really wish his efforts would have an impact.
BTW, my anger over the improper relationship between Ariad's attorney of choice and the SEC chairwoman really has less to do with Ariad than it does with the fact that this kind of improper dealing has run rampant in our society. Why, well you see how many people here are bothered by it.
rum
And to answer Rum if it was right or not, would you not bail out your child for $5 if he's facing incarceration? Sure you will.
Jess, forgive me but I'm not smart enough to understand your response.
To rephrase my question, is it okay with the rest of the shareholders that 2da's attempt to appeal to the SEC to put a shareholder proposal in the proxy was rejected by the SEC that accepted an argument from the SEC chair's husband's law firm?
Doesn't it kind of piss off a few of you?
rum
That $100,000 Ariad spent on SEC Chair Mary Jo White's husband's law firm Cravath, Swaine, and Moore to shut down the proxy proposal
I've been terribly lazy and didn't realize this fact. I checked Wikipedia to be sure it was true, and yes it is.
Just curious from the supporters of Ariad and Denner, is this okay with you guys?
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br, I totally understand what you're saying, but if people want to criticize Ariad for selling BLCM at $25 per share and It's now trading in the $14 range, I think they're dead wrong. That's all I'm trying to say.
rum
I may be wrong, but as I remember BLCM was sold at around $25 per share. Hard to call it a foolish move with BLCM trading at $14 and change. If you are interested you certainly could counteract Ariad's move by purchasing shares yourself.
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Clackson initiated a 10b5-1 Plan to sell in June 2014 when Ariad's prospects were very different. The Plan he set up sells shares periodically. While he could theoretically suspend the Plan he has chosen no to.
Overall, I wouldn't take this as a negative.
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Amazing call. When I first read your message I thought, vid is some kind of optimist. Excellent call.
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You folks have been in this stock for how long? And you're concerned about a little challenge attempted to uncover the truth?
It's just another brick in the wall.
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Vid, you and others have very little to worry about if Denner did nothing wrong.
As for what zzaatt said about proving something that is simply a matter of judgement, that actually is what courts are for.
Hopefully a negotiated conclusion will bring 2da's charges to an end. You're all in favor of Denner's utilizing leverage to oust Harvey, well why not give 2da the benefit of the doubt. Perhaps questions to which we should already know the answers, will be brought to light.
rum
PS. whoever the deleted my last post, I'd love to know why.
May have shorted shares and hedged with the CALLS.
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johnq, everybody is wrapped up in the amazing work that 2da has undertaken.
I'm listening and if you could get some to pay attention, they'd know this is a big deal. The question I have is, are they hedging their short position or betting on great news coming?
I sincerely hope the latter.
Thanks for the info.
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Clackson has been a seller in each of the last few months. Very likely part of a Rule 10b5-1 Plan established a while back.
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Sure would like to see her model!
BR, I've seen her model. She's quite fashionable.
2da, I may have messed up your "no deletion" record. Sorry.
Make no mistake, this is dilution. It's what they do with the $140 million that counts.
A little longer runway means a longer wait for the ultimate buyout.
Luck.
rum
As I recall, the purported reason for the poison pill when it was adopted back in 2013 or 2104, was specifically to protect the ability of the company or its successor to use the Net Operating Losses.
Hmmm, either that was BS back then or the NOLs may be in jeopardy(or the tax laws changed).
rum
HINT: The remark is wrong in just one respect.
No giggling.
What do I win 2da?
TC, while I don't disagree with your optimism you might reconsider the wisdom of the statement, "best to put the perpetual short/doomsday folks on mute."
Take a look at a one year chart, or a two year chart, a chart since Denner has taken over or a chart since PP was put in place. All those charts scream out that the only voices that have been consistently correct are those doomsday voices.
My only point is that I'm not certain that ignoring those that have been spot-on, while kibitzing with the optimists that have been wrong at every turn, is the best way to go.
Having said all that, I am optimistic that we are in the home stretch.
rum
I've said it before, and it's a total guess, but I believe the volume is Sarissa purchasing additional shares.
As most will remember, Denner asked the Board to approve additional purchases when the Poison Pill was still in place. Foolishly, he was denied.
As an insider, his ability to purchase (or sell) is limited to periods when there is no material information known by him and not by the public. I believe even an SEC 1b5-1 Plan can only be initiated when material info. hasn't been disclosed. Often times this "non-blackout period" is the two or three weeks following an earnings release.
Just guessing
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