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If I were disliked by the likes of Adam F and Cramer, I would wear that as a badge of honor. These two are despicable human beings.
Some of what AF stated appears to be true. He uses the small appearance of truth to lure people in and hopes they'll be fooled into thinking it's all true.
HB has amazing talents in the science. He's probably less skilled at dealing with people, hence the appearance of having a huge ego. I think he believed his dealings with the FDA were all about the data and science behind Iclusig. He was wrong, he was dealing with an egomaniac with a complex and he didn't see what others may have picked up on. This doesn't make him, in any way, a candidate for worst CEO.
Now let's talk about the Top 10 Scumbag writers. Where does AF and Cramer fall. That's when I would say that they are "tops in my book."
Euripides, HB has no fiduciary duty to put out a press release. It's my hope that they are in negotiations with the FDA and, if so, any pumping of Iclusig and its value may be seen as disruptive to the negotiations. The silence is tough to take, but I prefer silence until they have concluded their discussions with the FDA.
Also, someone predicted lower prices due to tax loss selling. I agree and if it comes to be, it will be the opportunity of the year.
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I think the FDA meeting was a result of speculation and over time was assumed to be the truth. I think they are in ongoing talks, but no meeting of any consequence is on the adgenda.
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Call me crazy, but I'm thinking that someone wanted to bail out and was willing to accept $4.07.
From $4.13 down to $4.07 isn't exactly a big gap down. In fact, it shouldn't even be called a small gap down. Couple that with the fact that liquidity in most any stock is far less in the pre market and the after market and it gets really difficult to imagine any wrong doing.
If you were being sarcastic I feel really dumb. Have agood night, zuize.
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It kind of looks like a bunch of transactions in a fairly illiquid market. Manipulation...you've got to be kidding.
Not everything is a conspiracy. Not everything is the hedgies getting together and screwing the rest of us.
Sometimes a stock might drop because the FDA pulled the plug on its only marketable drug.
I'm getting a little bored with all the conspiracy discussion, can you tell?
Oh, forgot to mention the evils of the HFT fellas.
I stand corrected. Thank you.
lax:
patients can still access the drug through an IND
I'm not sure, but I don't think that is true with respect to new patients that may have no other alternative. I believe the IND covers patients that were on the drug when the hammer came down.
but the fact that they can't or won't provide any insight Doesn't sit well with me, does it with you?
Considering what I would characterize the relationship between the FDA and Ariad as tense, I'd rather Ariad conduct its negotiations in private.
I believe this will turn out better than most believe and I can wait (although I'd rather not).
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Rather than Dr Cortes is hedging, I'd prefer to say he is softening his position.
I'm guessing there are some pretty intense negotiations going on between the FDA and Ariad, et al. Again, just guessing, but I think the egos at Ariad may be realizing that the egos at the FDA control all the marbles. It is in Ariad's best interest to soften the language and appear to lessen the divide. In doing so perhaps the FDA can give a little without losing face.
Win/win
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Tink, I believe it means exactly as you speculated. This is how some would attempt to manipulate the price. They show big numbers of shares available just above the market. People considering selling figure they better get out now in case this seller drops his price and it pressures the price down. The person showing the shares to sell, never has to sell, but hopes to pick up shares cheaper.
It's an old trick.
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If you can't beat them...join them.
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Now my head is truly spinning and I've confused everything more, so I'm going to join my companions and have a stiff Glenlivet.
To be honest, Euripides, after reading your response to my question several times, I was more than convinced that you had already had a few stiff Glenlivets. LOL
In all seriousness, I still have no idea how anyone can sell or short a stock in an effort to purchase shares at a lower price.
Trust me when I tell you I understand shorting a stock. I also understand capitalizing on expected news or information. I understand buying on dips and selling higher.
Anyway, thanks for the response.
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Euripides, I do know what shorting is. I first got my ass burnt shorting a stock (Data General) about 38 years ago. I personally have never done it since. I would prefer using "puts."
I also understand ones potential to influence a stock price if he controls enough shares or has enough buying power. What I don't understand is the mechanics of selling or shorting a stock down to a specified price in order to accumulate it cheaper.
For example, I'm considering the purchase of a stock that currently trades at $20. I want to accumulate it at $18. I short the heck out of it (say 500,000 shares) and now I've gotten the ask price down to $18. Now I begin accumulating. Well, first I have to purchase 500,000 shares to get back to an even position and then I want to buy my originally intended position. I'm just guessing that, all things being equal, by the time I get my short position back in line, the price per share is back around $20. And I haven't even begun to purchase my original position.
What am I missing?
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yes, the fda decision will help the stock price.
Agreed, but possibly (hopefully) a huge understatement.
More than likely ASH won't.
But ASH info might help the FDA get to where we all are hoping for.
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So far it looks like massive shorting/driving down the price to load.
Euripides90, this logic confounds me. The hedgies are selling to drive the price down so they can buy. I've never understood this.
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Good post, Amp.
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Hey Vid, I hope neither you nor any of your friends and family were enroute to NYC this morning.
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Thanks, I-man
I-man, where did you learn this. Is there a particular book available for old guys with the attention span on a gnat (like me)?
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Hi I-man. I've been invested in Ariad for over 15 years. Over the years I have accumulated for more than I should have and, as a result, I was way over invested before the first shoe dropped. I felt pretty smug when people told me to diversify for protection, I would say I was concentrated in order to build wealth. What an idiot.
I still very strongly believe in Ariad and its drug, Iclusig. Believe it or not, my average price is nicely below its pps right now (thanks largely to the Dec 2008 drop below $1). It's still tough to see so much wealth disappear so fast.
I'm hanging in with it.
I always enjoy your posts and I believe many others on the Ariad Board did as well. You are correct about how the Board is now populated with those who have nothing at all to add to the conversation. I think many of the old posters got wiped out.
I'll check out ASTC. Thanks,
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Thanks I-Man! It's great to have you back.
For the record, I have spent 8 days lying on the beach, drinking rum.
I-Man; you're wanted back at the Ariad board. It seems to be coming back to life.
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If there is a leak of real news, Ariad certainly would take note. If they knew what they were doing they would have NASDAQ halt the stock and get a press release out.
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Excellent Andy, now people can stop saying derogatory things about you.
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Iclusig is, by far Ariad's most valuable asset. It will be back. It won't be partnered.
And, right now the pps is very cheap (and won't be for long)
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From lowman:
If ARIA would simply PR the new 'program' as issued by the FDA, there's a good fair chance ARIA could run back to $10+ on that alone.
If the new program you are referring to is the one in which the patients currently on Iclusig continue to get access, then you missed a key point:
“The most important thing for us is to make sure there’s access to this drug for patients who need it,” said Ariad chief scientific officer Timothy P. Clackson. But while Iclusig remains on the market in some European countries, Ariad is no longer being paid to distribute it in the United States under the FDA’s emergency program.
Don't need a release for that.
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I'm saying that it appears to me to have been handled very poorly. For me to spell out what I would have done would require lots of speculation as to the sequence of events, but I do believe that, had the situation been handled differently we may not have been attacked so severely as we were by the FDA.
JMO, it doesn't make me a paid basher or short as some may want to believe. In fact, the crux of my opinion is that Iclusig is a drug that is very much deserving of being on the market (yet it isn't). Something is wrong with this picture.
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post #39417 is the best I can do for now. Ever since this mess started several weeks back it seems like Ariad and the FDA have traded jabs. That's why the analyst asked the question during the CC about why they insist on debating this in a public forum when the FDA always wins such debates.
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I think the statement, "The conclusions reached by the CHMP, which were announced today, confirm a positive benefit-risk assessment for Iclusig after considering the most recent safety information," has little to do with scientific and medical fact and more to do with adding color to the release. And its color seems to be directed at the FDA.
It's a foolish move.
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br, not derogatory, but a jab at the FDA. In the article issued by Reuters (I think) Pazdur was quoted as saying something like, "the FDA approved Iclusig based upon a favorable risk vs. benefit profile. This is clearly no longer the case."
I think his quote is totally inappropriate, but I also believe the quote in the most recent Ariad release that, "The conclusions reached by the CHMP, which were announced today, confirm a positive benefit-risk assessment for Iclusig after considering the most recent safety information." is in direct response to that Pazdur quote.
And, as was asked on the recent conference call, "why are you (Ariad) debating these issues with the FDA in public? It seems every time Ariad makes these public comments the FDA comes down hard with its response."
These quotes are not word for word, but my memory. I believe they reflect the spirit of the actual quotes.
I just think these jabs may have contributed to the FDA hardline stance and these comments are better served when kept between the two parties only.
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Not to be a wet blanket after this wonderful day, but my favorite line in the Ariad press release is yet another (unwise) jab at Pazdur and the FDA.
The conclusions reached by the CHMP, which were announced today, confirm a positive benefit-risk assessment for Iclusig after considering the most recent safety information.
I believe this kind of "in your face" bull is what got us in this predicament. Of course this is just my opinion.
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The conclusions reached by the CHMP, which were announced today, confirm a positive benefit-risk assessment for Iclusig after considering the most recent safety information.
I have to agree with this statement. Hopefully this shows us that there are no more shoes to drop.
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Andy, come on back in.
Much better, rurik. LOL
To be honest, I'm just hoping for good news. How many more "shoes" could they have to drop?
Do you think the good news will only get us 8-10 cents per share?
I'm hoping for a little more (assuming good news).
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These people at Ariad are doctors, dedicated to healing.
Amp, I apologize as I am just getting a little frustrated at everyone jumping all over Andy. He is along time valued(by me anyway) contributor to this board and he seems to me to be very honest. While I have sold virtually no shares (except to cover a margin issue) I agree with much of his opinions. They're just opinions and I appreciate hearing them. To get on every poster that doesn't sing the praises of Ariad and HB as being a paid pumper or a short investor is a real shame. That thinking contributes to why I and others are in this terrible position today.
No offense meant to you Amp.
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Ah, we have a mutual admiration society forming here (small minded
people need not apply).
When did iHub merge with the Yahoo board?
This board is going downhill fast.
Some people call their current holdings a POS. Especially when they drop from the high teens to the mid twos virtually overnight.
I own a boatload of this POS.
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Great job, 2da!!! People might consider changing the wording a little so it doesn't appear to be a form letter. Don't change the facts, just some of the writing style.
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Just a thought, but if you are looking at making a difference you might consider contacting Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren. She may/may not subscribe to your political views, but she is a very bright woman and she's not afraid of getting dirty.
I think it's important to focus on the science that is being denied to very desperate patients.
You most likely won't speak to her, but her staff will take note that this Massachusetts company is feeling the wrath of an FDA bureaucrat.
If anyone thinks this might be of value how about helping with some well thought out talking points.
BTW, if you're not from Mass. call anyway. It's a Mass. company and she may be looking for your presidential campaign contributions.
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Amp, I disagree, trust has everything to do with this situation because HB has lost the trust on Wall Street. He will have a difficult time convincing them that the path forward is worth their investment.
"Fool me Once..." George W. Bush
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