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Good work on posting that!
I ran into Brad and passed it on to him and he said he would DEFINITELY look into it!
I haven't posted here in a long time, because I didn`t think it would be of any particular help to anyone, but I have occasionally monitored the Board(s).
Obviously, anyone anywhere that has held shares in ANY Iron Ore dependent company over the past couple of years has had their head handed to them, and can only blame themselves for not having seen the ore price collapse coming. The signs were everywhere.
I don't think that Brad really wanted to get involved with the mess at CWRN, but was forced to act before the whole thing disintegrated and took him down with it.
Regardless of what some here might think, I know that Brad is still trying mightily to resurrect Panamerican/CWRN, but that isn't easy when you are faced with trying to deal with numerous inherited lawsuits, California judges and absurd Government intervention in both Mexico (Export licenses) and the US (SEC trading freezes) which were completely out of his control, and even if he beats that all back, it will all be for nothing unless the price of Iron Ore recovers to at least $100 CFR China. I've learned a lot about this business (mostly just reading) over the past few years and I kinda' agree that mining Guadalupe is probably a waste of time and money at a lower price. Dozens of small mines all over the world have closed and won't re-open until it reaches that level because they can't get any financing without that kind of price guarantee.
In his case, I don't blame him since he lost $3 Million on the last ship loaded when the price collapsed from $110 to $80 between the time they signed the contract and the ship arrived in China and the final price was set. Ouch!! BTW that loss includes the discounts Baosteel applied for the high silica and low Fe content of the ore that Bob had produced. That came straight from one of his partners who showed me the paperwork.
Finally, I think some here should give up posting ancient pics of mining trucks and backhoes that ALWAYS were rented from CAT or others, and piles of waste material (excuse me, Fertilizer) which can't be sold in enough quantity to bother with it.
I actually saw Brad at a fancy local restaurant (just 2 weeks ago) playing host to some "investors" from Dubai (he paid the check) who said they were interested in making a "long term" investment to build a pellet plant and a steel mill. So I guess he is still running down the options. Do you expect him to keep a bunch of Ihub posters informed about every twist and turn. Only people like Bob do that when they are trying to sell stock. As Penny Stock investors, we all know that CWRN is a Non-Reporting company and Brad has no legal responsibility to keep us informed, and especially when there is nothing "noteworthy" to pass on.
If he gets lucky, you'll probably get lucky. If not, you had your chance to sell and didn't take it. Grow up.
And say a prayer for Brad. I don't envy him his task. Or his lawyer bills.
Have a Happy 4th. I'll go back into my cave now.
Yes, RM did (a while ago)pay off the wager he lost.
We`re even for now.
But I may up the ante next time!!!!
Okay, I took 2 new pictures today.
This first one is from the same vantage point as my last one a few days ago
This 2nd one is taken from a place I used to shoot from during the first shipment.
The trucks are still hauling constantly and it looks to me like they will have enough at the port to fully load the ship arriving in a week or so.
Rumor has it there will be another ship arriving for CWRN within 30-40 days.
Update from Ensenada
It's obvious that Cotton has dramatically improved his trucking logistics. Yesterday, it seemed like there was a CorreCaminos truck either coming or going through town every 15 minutes!
Cotton must have kicked his trucker where it hurts. ATTABOY!!!
The rumor is that the 2nd ship (a Handymax) will begin loading at EIT on July 25th, and at this trucking rate, this time there will be enough at the port to fill it without delays.
More importantly, I was told (by one of his employees)that they have uncovered the best vein yet of solid Magnetite, and the only delay in production is that they haven't yet got their blasting permit approved. He said that is expected within a couple of weeks, which will allow them to Double or Triple their production of Lump Ore.
So, I am pleased to report that (although it took a while longer than I had expected) it definitely appears that they have worked out many of the "kinks" that I originally expected, and should have much smoother sailing ahead.
Those are piles of shredded scrap steel which were loaded on that ship last week. It sailed a couple of days ago.
You can't see it in the picture (because its hidden behind the scrap piles) but IRK has about 1500 Tonnes of Iron Ore there in the same yard.
I know of no "new" hangups. Assuming they will ship through EIT again, it would be nice if they have made arrangements to allow the trucks to enter the port 24/7.
If your friend is a Geologist who lives and works in Ensenada, we may have had the same source on this issue!
I hear trucking will start soon, BUT it will come too late to save you from losing the bet.
Easy come - Easy go!
What is more important is that you should be able to afford it, because if the rumors I'm hearing are true, the trucking will be the least of the good news.
One of those rumors (now confirmed by one of their colleagues) is that a couple of retired local Geologists recently sold Cotton some (never before seen) "highly detailed" results of fairly extensive drilling done at Guadalupe back in the 70's. That should dramatically improve their stripping ratios and production by homing in on the (now known) best areas.
So I won't be surprised to see Cotton keep trucking (once he starts)until he can load a Panamax, to save $15-$20/Ton on freight.
It took longer than I had expected to get things going well again, but I am greatly encouraged. If I can confirm some other good things, I will post them.
Rocket, if you would rather.. I'll accept a stock cert for 100,000 Shares instead of the money!!!
Thanks to many for your "friendly" words re: my departure.
To the others, all I can say is that you have my word that I have no ulterior motive in leaving, and am hiding nothing. I told everyone everyone earlier that I would reduce my postings until such time as there was serious progress to report, and that has not occurred, or I would have posted it as a part of last night's post.
I feel good about (and stand by) everything I posted here, but I am leaving because (and only because) following this Board (or others like it I suppose) and answering questions, and contesting outright false statements, became an obsession for me ("I'll come to the dinner table just as soon as I finish reading the Board, Honey") and just takes too much time that I don't have to spare.
As you guys always say....GLTA
I joined this Board because I thought CWRN had promise, and I could help others by doing nothing more than serving as a source of reliable, truthful information.
It was the first time I have ever participated on any message board in my life, and actually became kind of addicted to it for a while.
But now I've learned that these Boards are mostly inhabited by people who don't really care about the truth (and actually deride the truth) if it doesn't fit their trading strategy, or are just unwilling to face facts.
In reality, I've finally decided it is just a colossal waste of time, and I will likely never participate in another Board like this, as I can only assume they are all about the same.
There are a few of you (precious few) who have my email and to whom I may respond if I can help clarify the facts, at least for a while.
Otherwise, and unless something really interesting arises about CWRN which moves me to post (you never know) this will be my last.
Adios y Buena Suerte
I sincerely hope that you do not have suicidal tendencies, because your convoluted estimates are so ridiculously exagerated that you are going to be incredibly embarassed when the truth of the current situation comes out.
Stop asking
Yes the market will. The only question is what that Valuation will be.
I doubt that the charts reflect much when you and few others here spend your whole day trying to support the PPS with tiny trades.
Furthermore, the Pumpers seem to completely discount the very strong possibility that any PR will be very disappointing news regarding either First Half profitability and/or any further shipping dates.
On the other hand, it could turn out to have been your last chance to sell at anywhere near this level.
I'm sure there are many here who would appreciate it if you would please stop the relentless Pumping without any good, factual news to rely on.
Decent, well reasoned advice
I think you should cut back on the beer (at least the expensive brand you've been buying with your winnings) so you'll be able to pay me back on July 1st !!!
I hope you do travel down here. It will be a real eye opener for you, and will help you to "refine" your investments in Junior mining companies in the future.
The truth of the matter is that ANYONE who has a significant % of their portfolio invested in CWRN (or any other Junior miner who is not covered by a highly reputable analyst) who has NOT made a trip to see the situation with their own eyes (or have a trusted personal and objective friend do so), is a darn fool.
OK. Its a bet!!
But you had better get started trucking TODAY, and pray that they can find enough new ore to mine awfully quick, so you don't run out of ore to ship half way through.
Fair enough.
And I can assure you that there was no other shipment besides the Kriton.
Yes you are correct. That is a PART of what will ship next.
BUT (after going to Erendira today and looking at the situation) I am now willing to bet you $1000 that CWRN will not make another BULK shipment during the 2nd Qtr.
Just so there is NO misunderstanding, I am referring to a bulk shipment of at least 35,000 Tonnes of CWRN produced Iron Ore, and the ship must sail from Ensenada by June 30, 2011.
If they ship a few containers, or "share" a bulker with another miner, that doesn't count and I win.
What do ya' say, my wealthy friend???
That is one Hell of a Sandwich, and $430 Million (even without considering the possibility that there are more "hidden" Outstanding Shares) is too high a valuation for CWRN.
Sure. I'll bet $1.75 that that hole is no bigger than 3" !!
Actually, I would assume the debate will now switch to how the funds were distributed i.e, how much belongs to CWRN. They really need to come clean on this.
Ahhhh, now I see said the blind man..........
While I suppose it is certainly possible that the truckers wouldn't haul anymore before they got paid for the first load(I too heard that they got paid today), I'm not sure that would have affected the mine itself.
From the pictures I've seen (my "spy" takes pictures from the road a couple of times a week from the road) the work at the mine "appears" to have continued unabated, although the piles of 3-18mm (good) ore have been growing slowly.
They have been moving alot of fines around, but I suppose you already know what I think of that exercise!!
I'm not sure I understand your question. Please re-phrase it.
Sorry I took so long to reply, but I was washing dishes at the local taqueria to make the money to pay RM.........
It is really hard to say much more than I've already said before.
There may be a light at the end of this tunnel, but it could easily be a train coming the other way.
It "looks" like they have resource problems at Guadalupe (how else can one rationally explain the screwing around with the fines, and STILL no trucking etc.) BUT only an insider would know the full story. This is especially true with small mining companies.
The lack of concern for meeting deadlines, and the almost cavalier attitude towards addressing Shareholders concerns is NEVER a good sign for a company, and the PPS clearly reflects that lack of clarity.
What never ceases to amaze me, is (if their posts can be believed) how so many "Longs" on this Board just don't seem to care about the incessant bad news, or at least the complete lack of good news.
I really hope there aren't that many who have truly ridden this all the way down. But if they have, it was (as they constantly remind everyone) their own decision and have the right to have made it.
The problem is that it will now take 3 times as much hype to run it back to where it was, and it will be difficult (at best)for anyone to find facts to support another run towards .03, so the Risk-Reward Ratio has been raised dramatically.
Like it or not, thats my take..............
I have no idea.
You'll have to ask the Company!
You need to re- read my posts carefully.
I would be willing to bet you $1000 on that hole being a MINIMUM of 6".
Ask Mr. Cotton to take another picture of the same rock with a pack of cigarettes next to the borehole.
Whomever is proved right must pay by Western Union immediately!
Do we have a bet?
Then I guess you should prepare to meet your Maker, as I too believe we will see .005 shortly.
There is just not enough "near term" FACTUAL good news to attract buyers who have gone cold on CWRN due to their failure to execute!!
In the final analysis, the market is a cold mistress which is not interested in the least in what you may have accomplished BUT is always asking "What have you done for me lately?"
I personally believe (based on objective visual observation and a clear understanding of the trucking logistics involved) that there will NOT be another bulk shipment LEAVING before late June AT THE EARLIEST, and that will be largely comprised of low value fines, and that even that revenue won't even post until 3rd Qtr.
The main problem is that Cotton OVER-PROMISED by a country mile, and couldn't deliver. If he had kept his mouth shut and
let things evolve realistically, the PPS would probably have been alot more stable. Although I had (and posted) high hopes that Emily would ameliorate those problems, I'm afraid she has failed miserably, and has indeed complicated it by making numerous statements that were PROVEN NOT TO BE TRUE.
The situation is now complicated by the "apparent" lack of easily exploitable "near surface" ore at Guadalupe, which is driving this reliance on re-processing low value fines. Hell, there are at least a dozen old Copper mines in the US that have multi-million ton waste piles (which are very high in Fe, much higher than Cotton's waste) that no one bothers with.
ANY serious miner who had access to high grade lump material would not bother to screw around with those mountains of waste.
In my very first posts, I warned of the risk that Cotton could screw up a good thing, but wrongly assumed that he wouldn't repeat past mistakes.
Unfortunately, it appears that he may have done just that, as a result of failing to invest in exploration drilling. Don't kid yourselves, CEMEX did EXTREMELY limited drilling on the property, and I'm told that Cotton never even saw that limited data. He is essentially facing a situation where instead of mining good ore and getting rid of the waste......he is "sifting" through hundreds of thousands/millions of tons of material to extract the Fe that he can.
In the mining business, there is only ONE OVERRIDING CONCERN and that is the STRIPPING RATIO. That is the # of Tons of Material moved vs. the # of Tons of saleable TARGET ORE derived. Guadalupe is quickly turning into a nightmare on that score.
Just so you know, that recent RM picture of a "doughnut" depicts a 6" hole that was obviously bored as a water well sometime in the past. Exploration holes rarely exceed 2".
As long as I'm at it on a Saturday nite, I can inform you all that, based on my CONFIRMED local investigation, Nazarena may have potential, but NOT ONE GEOLOGIST HAS EVER STEPPED FOOT ON THE PROPERTY to even initially confirm that potential, and any statements regarding its potential are WILD SPECULATION by people (Cattle ranchers etc.)who don't even really know what they're looking at.
Furthermore, Pan Am only controls a 33% Share of the Nazarena Concession, which is (to say the very least) troublesome, as there are something like 3-5 other people involved.
As I have repeatedly said, CWRN IS NOT A SCAM. They did make ONE shipment of ore and will undoubtedly make a few more over the next year, and deserve credit for that, BUT the issue is whether they can regularly repeat that feat.
Valuation, Valuation, Valuation.............
Dollar Bills are printed on paper!!
Got your paint ready???
I don't really know Bob that well.
It's not strange at all. Long delays happen all the time trying to collect on an LC.
Final payment on an LC requires a lot of documents to be presented, not the least of which are the Quality Tests which were taken at the time of loading by an Independent Laboratory, which I think was SGS from Canada. If those results cause a dispute between Buyer and Seller, that needs to be negotiated. I am not saying that happened, only that it would be considered normal.
I guess I'll take a shot at that key question:
According to many people in Ensenada whom I have spoken with, at least as of yesterday, Pan Am hasn't yet been paid for the last shipment.
There are a lot of people here who say they are waiting to be paid for their services/supplies either by CWRN, Pan Am or by the several parties who are direct beneficiaries of the LC from the Chinese buyer.
As an example, the Concession owner, who has a "direct claim" against the LC proceeds (i.e; straight from the bank)to cover his Royalty split, owes several people money in town and is telling them the LC hasn't been paid yet.
Same exact story with the truckers.
So I assume the company is waiting until they can announce they have actually been paid before they PR.