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MNTA: TA 5/16/2013
Double-top @ $13.45 and down it goes. The only thing helping MNTA at this point is that the entire market is trending upwards.
Do you know how to look up a stock quote? MNTA traded below $12 on Friday. Before Friday, it hadn't traded below $12 for over a month. You haven't posted on MNTA's message board for a while, you must've been trying to get your shirt back on other stocks. And please, no personal attacks or your message may be deleted.
MNTA: TA 2/15/2013 Finally a positive technical event
After earnings were released MNTA managed to test and stay above its 50 day moving average. This coming week will be crucial in setting the longer term direction (possibly for all of 2013) of the stock. Watch for:
A strong follow-through will start an uptrend and set the tone for the year
A weak follow-through will:
- cause the stock to flatten out or consolidate in preparation for the next direction (either up or down)
- cause the stock to resume the downtrend
MNTA: TA 2/14/2013
Downtrend is going to accelerate shortly and move very quickly through $12.
Happy Valentine's Day!
Thanks for your views and the thorough analysis.
Thanks for the response pollyvonwog.
So does all of this translate into stock prices which you can act on; add to your position (for ex. MNTA at $11), sell with gains you would be happy with (for ex. MNTA at $30-$50), bail (MNTA < $5)?
Also, in regards to M-Copax approval do you have any timeframes in mind; as to when you think it is most likely (for ex. by end 2013), and as to when you'd bail on MNTA (for ex. if they don't get M-Copax approval by end 2014,end 2015)? I guess it may be possible that there are some who believe in MNTA's potential and are willing to hold it forever (and if there position size was very small). Finally, are there any checkpoints you are looking for on the road to approval (time elapsed, progress reported by the company, competitor approvals)?
Anyone following MNTA's fundamentals brave enough to put out any price targets they have based on their analysis?
MNTA: TA 2/8/2013 (Continued)
MNTA bounced off of long-term resistance and is still in a channel that has been in place for all of 2012. There is major long-term support at $10, but I believe that MNTA will break below this long-term support level. A near term catalyst that might re-ignite the downtrend is the earnings release later this week.
MNTA: TA 2/8/2013
MNTA about to resume it's long-term downtrend. Sub-$10 prices coming soon. Overall market headed for all time highs while MNTA headed for all time lows.
MNTA: TA 12/11/2012
In my last post (#msg-82261613), I said, "A close above $11 (this coming week)means that the low at $10.05 will hold for a while". I forgot to qualify that the close should be on a weekly basis. This means that MNTA needs to close above $11 at the close this Friday at 4pm ET. My post should have read, "A weekly close above $11 (this coming week) means that the low of $10.05 will hold for a while". Sorry about the error. But I got a good kick at how excited people got when MNTA closed above $11 (daily basis) yesterday. I guess I can understand why people would be so excited - being down only -36.5% YTD instead of -38.5% YTD is always a good thing .
Today MNTA had a "Gravestone Doji" candlestick pattern. This is a bearish pattern. More info can be found here and here. As one of the webpages indicates, "The Gravestone Doji represents the graves of those bulls that have died defending their territory.". I wonder what bad news is going to bring MNTA down this time.
Happy Holidays everyone!
Technically, it's simple. A close above $11 (this coming week)means that the low at $10.05 will hold for a while, but prices below $10.35 or so means that the downtrend is not over. For longs, there's a slim chance that the $10.05 low is the head of an "inverted head and shoulders" (bullish), but it's crucial for MNTA to have constructive action the next few days.
MNTA: TA 12/7/2012
Bounce is over. Going lower.
MNTA: TA 11/28/2012 (continued)
In June I posted some comments about MNTA's technical picture that are playing out now (#msg-76960724). At the time, I indicated that MNTA's long-term lower highs and lower lows did not bode well going forward. I also said that prices below $12 might signal that MNTA could move to the lower trendline.
On October 25th, MNTA was at $13.72, and I predicted that it would drop to $10 by the end of 2012 (#msg-80896365). Sarcastic responses and "LOLs" were the result. After a 26.75% drop in about a month, MNTA had a low of $10.05 today - it's lowest price since November 2009 and the lowest price since generic Lovenox approval.
Referring to the chart below, MNTA had it's last lower high at $17.09 in June. Fasten your seatbelts because it may be in the process of making a lower low. The last significant long-term low was in September 2011 at $10.15 (Amphastar approval announcement). Today's low of $10.05 pierced that previous low.
As I have said, MNTA will bounce now (up to $11.50 range), and may have occassional bounces, but it will ultimately move into the lower half of the long-term channel going forward. My new target is $7 within the first half of 2013.
Happy Holidays everyone!
*Note: Most of the annotations on the chart (including the channel lines and red arrow) are untouched from my original post in June.
Yes, I trade on my own recommendations (although I didn't short MNTA this time since I consider it thinly traded), and yes, I am well off/make a lot of money on investing and trading. Not sure if you know my background (I've posted on this board previously), I'm retired (at 38 for 8 years now), but it wasn't due to the stock market.
I started following technical analysis to manage some of my assets in retirement. I post on boards to practice keeping fundamentals out of my investing/trading decisions, and to practice my charting/TA skills. I practice blocking out what anyone says about the fundamentals (how good or bad they are, how they are undervalued or overvalued, how much potential they have) and focus on the technicals. In analyzing the technicals, I try to look at it from all angles to ensure I have the complete picture. Some posters had trouble remembering my id, tekcor_atnm, but it's mnta_rocket backwards. It reminds me to look at technical indicators different ways so that I don't miss anything.
Regarding MNTA, it will bounce now, but if I were long I would use it as an opportunity to exit the stock and move my money somewhere else. For example, I would put money into GRPN now rather than MNTA, and I don't even think much of GRPN's future. That should tell you what I think of MNTA going forward. You may see both GRPN and MNTA gain in a day, but they are for different reasons. Any up days that MNTA has now is a bounce in a downtrend, whereas GRPN is popping due to an uptrend. Watch both and you will see what I mean.
MNTA was like a race car that surprised everyone by hitting the holeshot (Lovenox approval). Then it blew it's engine (Amphastar approval). Now the wheels are falling off (en banc denial).
Might get small bounces here and there (like a boulder rolling down a steep hill that hits a little bump), but ultimately it is headed to $7, my new target within first half of 2013.
MNTA: TA 11/28/2012
Short term bottom hit. Bounce time for a little while, then resume longer-term downtrend below $10.
End of 2012 target $10.
MNTA: TA 10/25/2012
Look out below. Going lower.
If one bought shares in 2007 (Yeah, sure, MNTA may have been undervalued at that point), but I would question their sanity in still holding those shares. Why wouldn't one sell those shares when it hit $26+ in July 2010 after mEnox approval (Clearly overvalued at that point going on two years now, ahh hindsight). Not impressed with someone still holding those shares. I would be more impressed if one sold all of those shares above $25!
MNTA: TA 12/19/2011, MNTA under pressure with broader market
Black candlesticks for MNTA indicate tops. MNTA is under pressure with the broader market.
GoSeek, a BofA Technical Analyst says "Santa is not coming"
http://www.businessinsider.com/bofa-mary-ann-bartels-sp-500-985-2011-12
I have been saying this for weeks, and I guess BofA should know since their stock hit a new 52-week low today.
Recall that I predicted that the market was going to decline before it had the worst Thanksgiving week since 1932 (#msg-69182127). And now, as I have said (#msg-69941113) Christmas is not looking any better as we are in a global slump like the 1930's.
The best positioning now is cash or short. Be cautious and be prepared.
Merry Christmas everyone!
Market downtrend strengthening now. Just like Thanksgiving was not good for some people, Christmas is not going to be good either.
Watch out for the EU downgrades.
Iran thought Santa was an unmanned drone and shot him down.
MNTA: TA 12/13/2011, Market conditions deteriorating again
MNTA's black candlestick on 12/5 still showing as a short-term top and now the long-term charts are showing possible sideways movement.
The S&P 500 still showing resistance at its 200 day moving average. The overall market conditions are deteriorating again. Exercise caution.
MNTA: TA 12/5/2011, Black candlestick might indicate a short-term top
MNTA showing constructive action recently by closing above 200 day moving average, but black candlestick might indicate a short-term top.
S&P still couldn't close above 200 day moving average. Note that this is the third attempt in about six weeks. Showing sideways movement. No strong downtrend (yet).
MNTA: TA 12/2/2011, S&P Breaking above trendline
S&P 500
S&P broke above a minor trendline. Still needs to push above the 200 day moving average which it couldn't clear in the past two attempts.
MNTA
Reposting an updated long-term chart which I originally posted a month ago (#msg-68705936) where I illustrated how MNTA was bouncing off a trampoline. Seems to be on track and playing out perfectly.
MNTA: TA 11/30/2011, Follow-up
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For those of you who missed some of the calls I have made:
MNTA "flush out"
On December 13,2010 I posted that MNTA could get a "flush out" move below $13 (#msg-57713116). Keep in mind that MNTA was at $14.50, already down >40% from mEnoxaparin approval highs, and right after the offering was priced at $14.50. To prove that it was a bold call at the time, check out this post the same day from OldBerkeley (#msg-57715651). What happened? TEVA announced their "minor deficiency" in January and MNTA dropped to a low of $12.32. At the time nobody could've predicted that TEVA's propaganda could affect MNTA the way that it did and cause MNTA to hit a 52-week and lowest price since mEnoxaparin was approved (and MNTA was raking in profits). Notice that I predicted that MNTA would drop below $13, not $12, not $10, etc.
TEVA "gorilla glued" to $50
On March 26, 2011 I predicted that TEVA would be "gorilla glued" to $50 (#msg-61547636). For the next three days TEVA closed at $50.00, $50.00, and $50.01. Have you ever seen someone predict the close this accurately for a $40B stock that traded 6m shares a day? Two weeks later it closed around $50 and I said it would no longer be "gorilla glued" and it subsequently fell significantly shortly afterwards. (Note: historical prices have been adjusted for dividends and are slightly below $50.00).
MNTA could hit $20 in 2 months
On March 26, 2011 when MNTA was trading at $14.56 I predicted MNTA could be $18-$20 in 2 months (#msg-61391185). Exactly 2 months later MNTA hit $20 exactly (a 37% gain).
MNTA price prediction on 1-year anniversary of mEnoxaparin approval
March 23,2011 I posted MNTA would be between $13.50 and $19.50 on 1-year anniversary of mEnoxaparin approval (#msg-65342489). On the 1-year anniversary MNTA was at $19.50.
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The biggest mistake I made on MNTA
The biggest mistake I've made on MNTA is when I attributed the weakness (that started in July) to the overall market weakness (#msg-67184056). In hindsight, I should've realized that investors were fearful of another generic Lovenox approval - Amphastar was approved the day after I posted my thoughts about MNTA's weakness at the time. Yes I know, people say "how can anyone predict what the FDA is going to do?". But I believe that it is very possible that possible FDA approvals/competitor approvals could move a stock. Notice that TEVA started on a multi-year decline long ago before the recent market declines. I believe that this multi-year weakness in the PPS is due to possible mCopaxone approval soon.
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I wanted to provide the recap above to outline the calls I've made, good or bad.
Regarding my latest postings regarding the S&P, I've annotated a chart with what I said. If people do not believe what I said they can check my postings to verify.
As far as posting trades to track performance, I bought 4,000 NUAN @ $23.95 this morning. Right now, it is only a trade because I don't trust the market yet. I may hold it for a longer term investment if it performs well and the market holds up. If the stock a) doesn't perform based on my analysis, b) starts to break down based on my analysis, or c) the market conditions deteriorate, then I will sell. (Go ahead extremebits, short all the NUAN you can if you want to do the opposite of me).
Yes. As I posted previously, I reduced my position near the breakout level when it struggled for the breakout. Now that it has broken out and pulled back I have increased my position again (but not to the 45k share level as before to reduce some risk).
Long-term charts still intact, intermediate term chart is still showing recovery.
MNTA: TA 11/30/2011, MNTA is a buy here
The S&P is moving back into a confirmed uptrend. MNTA broke above resistance and has back-tested the $15 level.
Yes, MNTA broke above the $15.28 resistance level and has moved from the recovery stage (above 50 day moving average, below 200 day moving average) to the accumulation stage (above 50 day moving average, above 200 day moving average).
The head fake was in reference to the S&P 500.
Strong upward move in the market this morning but not enough so far to reverse the long-term trend.
Right now, unless we get a follow-through day (day 4 from today) to start a new rally, I would qualify the move as a head fake. Exercise caution.