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Hey Jesspro
hope you are pleased. you ended up being the only one i would read (mostly).
And then I got banned by 2da or br forget which because i asked how do you add or remove moderators
i'm going to miss ariad, has been a part of my life 30 yrs or more
some luck and perseverance but i have done extremely well by most criteria >1M$
Skal to all
Yo
So 2da, correct me if I'm wrong, but you think Denner is on the dole and useless?
As I remember the poison pill will expire by next fall.
You might have a better chance of success if you email Denner directly.
Skal
Yes, that is all true. But who is Putman?
What is their mode of operation?
Anybody familiar with them?
That is a very large position.
Skal
Yo
Open question to the board.
Exactly how many shares does Denner hold?
I've got him pegged at around 10 million shares.
Comments?
Skal
Yo
Scratch that
Make it 12.8 million shares
Still makes Putnam #1 at 20 million shares
Up 10 million in this quarter
Anybody have any idea who Putnam is and what sort of game they have?
Besides making money of course.
Yeh, i still hope for some sort of closure. I believe that Ariad will be bought out, 20+ or higher.
Though I'm retired I would still like to pad my account, a couple hundred wouldn't hurt.
And I still think Ariadne can come thru one more time.
I've been very lucky with Ariad, I do not believe it will do anything but go up with the usual crap.
Might be nice to get together and raise a few, what else do you have to do?
Skal
Yo
Far as I know Seamus is retired in the Colorado area.
I'm retired in Idaho.
How could any investor ever forget about Ariad?
How are things with you?
Skal
Yo.
Added big time.
Approximately 10 million shares putting their current holding at roughly 20 million shares
I believe this dwarfs Denner's position, correct me if I'm wrong, but i think he only has around 10 million shares. I would view this as extremely bullish though I have no idea what Putnam does.
Will they demand a seat on the board also, ect, ect ?
GLTA
Skal
Yo
You da man 2da
I couldn't agree with you more.
Skal
Yo
PS you've been the best poster on this board for quite some time now, keep up the good work.
Elk ranch in Colorado.
Certainly 50 million shares short could not possibly be wrong. :)))
Skal
Yo
This has been one hell of a week.
May next week be as good. (without the downs)
Skal
Yo
Once again,
I submit to the board a question.
Would a buy out offer be submitted to a proxy vote.
I.E. would the proxy ask if you as shareholders would accept let's say $20/share for a buyout.
The exact number is not important but what is, is whether it would be asked of the shareholders or not.
Skal
Yo
Correct me if I'm wrong but i believe that Denner cannot buy any more shares unless he has board approval. However if he were to buy significantly more shares it would send a very strong signal.
Same as if Harvey was to buy a million shares on the open market would send a very strong signal.
In tandem would send us up quite a bit.
On another topic, I have never owned a stock that was "bought out". What exactly happens?
Do they just send you a check or what? What about, not cash, but a stock swap of some sort?
I'm looking at the tax consequences and trying to plan ahead.
Skal
Yo
If I was Denner, what would I do?
Everything possible to increase the value of ARIAD in the next year or less.
All information possible on Brigatinib and the new candidate plus, yes, a new CEO.
He is focused and looking for return on investment.
He is not a dithering idiot. He is looking to create the highest return on investment.
But guess what, he is not completely in charge.
Maybe if he gets 6 board seats and a new CEO.
6 board seats in a year and 113, NDA and new molecule (unless it is huge, and then he might hold on) and he is gone and ARIAD is sold.
Nothing is as easy or simple as one might think.
Skal
Yo
One of these days.
All of us are going to wake up
Turn on the computer
And go online.
And ARIAD will be trading
at 20$ plus.
What a pleasant surprise.
Much better than down 13$
And hopefully everyone will be healed.
Gotta believe it will be less than 2 yrs.
Skal,
Yo
Who has the larger discretionary cash account? Berger or Sarissa?
I have 50 k shares in my schwab accounts, no contact what-so-ever.
No debt either, don't do margin.
Berger does not have enough money to buy his way out.
Sarissa does have enough to buy their way in.
So why would Sarissa be buying votes?
Just to make sure or are they short of a majority.?
I really don't think Berger has those kinds of funds.
Skal
Yo
Jmho
Got out in both run ups. 32.50 and 17.50
Got back in at 2.78 this last time.
I remembered that pigs get slaughtered.
Sometimes it's good to have a little luck.
Personally I think they should replace the VP of quality and compliance.
The rest will be what it will.
Skal
Yo
JP, does that mean you've been in ARIAD since pre 99 run up?
I thought I was the only one; heh,heh.
Skal
Yo
As many of you know, I have been a long term holder of ARIAD.
I am as shocked and disappointed as almost anyone.
I have been here before.
ARIAD dropped to 50 cents, I told myself I would use it as toilet paper.
I renew that vow now.
I will use it as t.p. as before and I will not sell because this company is worth much more than wall street wants to value it at.
SKAL,
Stick the sword up their ass...
Yo
The 48 might be a little hard to reach, but IMO, not entirely impossible.
If I was Michael J. Fox, I might have already started inquiring.
Skal, Yo.
2da
your predictions work for me.
i was going on a doubling each quarter.
6,12,24,48
Skal, Yo.
Yes.
Biotech is hot, hot, hot.
Boiling hot.
Bubble, bubble, bubble?
Skal(d),
Yo.
The moment of truth has arrived.
We will know tomorrow of sales and profit and loss.
I have bought back in because in the end I think Ariad has the goods.
Dr. Berger said emphatically that he would buy more if he could.
I am hoping , though, that we do not see some disaster like dendreon.
The launch of a new product is not without uncertainty.
Skal, Yo.
Nice day.
Door #1 Loeb's hedge fund raises Aria stake by 85% in 4th qtr
Door #2 Ponatinib sales leaked and they are big.
Door #3 113"s preliminary results have leaked and they are good.
Personally, I prefer all 3 doors.
Skal,
Yo
One Thing
That has not been mentioned.
I have been reminded that there is a law on the books that limits how much a mutual fund may hold of any particular stock. 5% by net assets??? So if they bought early and big they would be required by law to reduce their holdings. Anybody else more familiar than me with this?
Might explain Ariad's close correspondence with Apple, along with selling to reduce tax as both were big gainers. (remarkable correspondence with these two, just pull up a
3 year chart and compare).
Skal,
Yo.
Illverson,
Don't you know that charting is by definition after the fact.
It is a summation of all the has occurred before.
It is not an absolute predictor of the future.
Skal,
Yo.
Maybe we should just call last Friday "Black Friday" for a couple of reasons.
I'm not at all worried about Ariad, they will succeed, as for the rest of it we
have opened Pandora's box.
Peace to you all,
Yo
The bottom line.
If I was a patient, which drug would I want?
If I was a doctor, which drug would I prescribe?
Better days ahead.
Skal, Yo.
Biotech_researcher knows what I wrote.
Skal,
Yo.
Nice to see you back BTH,
I do hope you got your Elk Ranch,
High in the Rockies.
I am still working on my retirement.
I was hoping you would call Ariad a "pig".
Skal,
Yo.
My 2 bits.
Ariad continues to perform and fire on all cylinders, nothing wrong with the company. 113 continues to look exceptional, though still to early to label as "best in class".
The $50 million projection vs $65 hurt. Figure it out, about 20%.
Ariad has been a top performer for 3 years in a good market. We seem to be tracking Apple right now.
Both companies have seen depreciation approaching 20% in the last few weeks.
I think that uncertainty in the coming tax law changes is causing some selling to lock in gains at lower rates. Which would mean that this will continue till the end of the year, barring news.
As for Ariad I expect more good news, as for Aapl, not, and I do like apple.
Next year we become much more of a sales and earnings driven beast. But we retain the possibility of exceptional exponential growth based on new products like 113.
I keenly await the new 2 molecules.
Skal,
Yo.
One of my more insane goals is to sell some of my shares at $48.50
Call it my bucket list, 1 more thing to do.
I happen to believe Ariad will do that.
All depends on 113 now.
I think Ariad is in the sweet spot right now.
$40 by January 2014.
Skal,
Yo
PS The 2 other candidates will kick it over $50.
And, oh yea, the macro could change everything in a heartbeat.
About a year ago this board was so excited about Rida and Pona that it basically said that Ariad had a full plate and should not bring anymore drugs on board. (to much expense)
I disagreed saying that it would truly be insane to disband and lay off their R&D team.
That if necessary they could sell rights. (additional revenue and less expense)
I got hammered on that one, no one else posted agreement.
Glad to see people are realizing that Ariad needs to keep going and not rest on its laurels.
Skal,
Yo
My second most favorite stock was Avii.
Skal,
Yo.
Ariad will go up tomorrow.
Skal, Yo.
If you listened to the last conference call by Dr. Berger, he stated that the rolling submission would be completed by the end of this month.
Guess what, it is the end of the month.
This a substantial advancement in Ariad's intention to become a global oncology company.
This particular submission contains all of the GMP's for manufacture and distribution.
Believe me this a a major chunk of the company after all of the R&D has been done.
Once in place additional products will be easier to bring on board with much less cost.
Yes it was planned in advance, just the normal progression of business.
Skal,
Yo
I would love to know Ariad's new target molecule.
anybody care to guess.
As for 113, I would expect preliminary efficacy.
Skal,
Yo.
No we are not objective. We all make assumptions.
Nobody can or will take into account the future,
as by definition, the future is unknown.
Therefore all we can do is hypothesize.
So what is your hypothesis?
My hypothesis is that Ariad will continue to grow.
Skal,
Yo.
BW
It is very hard to keep oneself 100% invested in Ariad.
Yes you are right after all this time and for the last 3 years I was at close to 100%.
I am now at 60%..
I just talked to my buddy tonight.
We may, just may, buy a boat and cruise the Caribbean these next few years.
It is on my bucket list.
60% is more than enough.
Skal,
Yo