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The volatility of this stock is frustrating. We're down over 25% in the last 2 weeks on no direct news. I know there are industry concerns which are more related to thermal coal and questionable Chinese demand for MET coal. This outfit is mining one of the richest MET coal seams in the US and has built a profitable track record. The daily trading volume seems healthy enough to avoid manipulation. Corrections are expected but not cliff falls. I don't get it... If someone has a better perspective, I would appreciate them sharing
Data reflects that approx. 25%+/- of short interests have filled during this last dip in stock price.. This offers a sign that this is the bottom or the dip may have been steeper without the fill orders.
HCC is one of the most efficient coal operations in the U.S. specializing in high quality coking coal, but this Big Board stock seems as volatile as a pink sheets play sometimes.
I keep DCAing thinking it is severely undervalued. We get some short term increases then it's always followed by another correction.
Missing the analyst's estimate by 11% shouldn't be a tuck and run event when the stock is already trading under 2x annual EPS with regular dividends declared. In past quarters, when we exceed analyst estimates, crickets...
Wow... I know that met coal demand is dropping and stock piles are growing, so I get why this stock is not trading at 7x annual EPS. But it seems substantially undervalued at present and the PPS is plummeting on very light trading volume. Most holders of this stock are institutional investors. Perplexed...
Good analogy... One positive note... A material amount of short positions filled during this last correction which indicates some additional resistance at this price point.
Really... Q2 earnings announcement exceeds the analyst estimates by 19% on record quarterly sales and we tank over 11% on healthy trading volume. Now trading under 2x annual EPS.
Energy stocks are down because of the increased non OPEC oil production, but why so much impact on a Met coal provider? I also thought the China tariffs were expected & already somewhat priced into the market.
Frustrating!
I hope I understand the question. The standard trading agreement is a seller of a short position in a stock is liable for any dividends paid to the shares shorted. In the case of a cash dividend, it is either settled from their cash position or added to their margin balance. Big fluctuations can result in the dreaded margin call.
Shorts often aren't compelled to fill on a dividend announcement, because of the customary drop in PPS following the exit of cash from the company for the payment. In this case (HCC), the special dividend announcement was part of a wave of other positive news, so I did not expect the drop in PPS to be a net wash out. But... at this juncture, it was.
Opinion only, not advice
As Bobby Bowden would say, "Dagummit!" The net effect of the special dividend is in the red as of this morning.
The special dividend wasn't the only pro here.. In the last few months... regular recurring dividends declared, analyst upgrades, stock buyback, creditor expansion of the operating lines (to support growth), performance thresholds met to satisfy restrictive debt covenants, & consistent quarterly earnings. But PPS still trading at a low multiple to EPS...
Long story short.. I expected the short term net effect to exceed the dividend %
The short position on the stock has declined, but the remaining shorts seem very resilient, even after two special cash dividends.
Opinions only
Thanks for the feedback. I agree that the writing was on the wall that a special dividend was forthcoming after the debt covenants were lifted.
I just did not think the market had already fully adjusted to a mention that the company intended to accumulate cash to pay a future special dividend up to a certain amount, contingent upon board approval. Additionally, I expected more movement with the future ex-dividend date. I thought it may bring new investors to the table & offer a window for some shorts to fill.
I do not think the dividend was already priced into the market, as the stock was teetering in this same range prior to the PR.
Not too many Joe Shmos like me hold this stock. It is mostly institutional investors.
Regular cash dividends have been declared, special cash dividends have been declared twice. PPS is trending < 3x estimated annual EPS. Once this young company establishes a record of consistent earnings, this could really move. Seems bridled right now for some reason. I can't figure it out.
Thanks for the feedback
Opinion only. Not advice
Wow. Special cash dividend announced of $4.41/share which is approximately 14% of the current trading price with a future ex-div date. MMs report a material short position (approx. 14% of the float)
Why is this not blowing up? If you have followers, you might want them to know.
Warrior Met Coal Announces Special Cash Dividend
6:15 pm ET April 23, 2019 (BusinessWire) Print
Warrior Met Coal,Inc. (NYSE:HCC) ("Warrior" or the "Company") today announced that its board of directors has declared a special cash dividend (the "Special Dividend") of approximately $4.41 per share of Warrior's common stock, par value $0.01 per share. The Special Dividend, totaling an aggregate payment of $230 million, will be paid on May 14, 2019, to stockholders of record as of the close of business on May 6, 2019. The Special Dividend will be funded through cash on hand.
Wow. Taking a beating here after recent analyst upgrades. Is this swing related to the change of control in the house, cheap oil and natural gas, change in Chinese demand, or something else?
Creditor expanding the operating line, analyst upgrades, rising PPS... At what point will the shorts be compelled to fill this position? Is there a future compression & run opportunity here? TD reports short interest above 16% (% of float) as of 9/28
I don't think so. The PR regarding the financing package is great news as it temporarily gets the company out of default with their creditors & allows them time to perform. But apparently it wasn't enough to spook the shorts or give the market confidence that a BK still was not forthcoming.
I held the stock at a much higher basis, but decided not to bail and dollar cost average my position as the stock dropped. Because... WLBA's creditors gave covenant waivers regarding the going concern assumptions in the 2017 YE FS. This gave hope that they may also entertain troubled debt restructuring and just maybe WLBA would not have to Chapter. The new financing package was a big step, but it contains post petition disclaimers and prior PR's did reference the company soliciting financing in conjunction with a BK reorg plan. In my opinion, We need more evidence of stabilization to really pop.
WLBA has positive EBITDA, meaning there's cash flow for creditors to work with, but they're walking a tight rope with limited capital. Thermal coal is a tough market because of the low price of natural gas. Met coal on the other hand could be lucrative with steel demand which has a lot of moving parts... Increased military spending, expected infrastructure bills, enforcement of tariffs, etc. This is one of the most entertaining lotto plays I've ever seen OTC. Legit company, heavily shorted on the NASDAQ, was on the brink of bankruptcy... If they can improve performance and not Chapter, it could be a home run. If they file, our shares are wallpaper. We'll see...
I am surprised that this is not the most popular lotto play on the pinks right now. It's one of the largest and oldest independent coal companies in the US which recently came off the NASDAQ. Seemed imminent that they were filing BK. Then Q417 results exceeded expectations & now a PR that a newly negotiated financing package throws them a life line while met coal futures are not shabby. WLB was recommended as a big short play by many services for a while. WLBA is not getting enough attention to run. Bid-Ask is gapping too easily and it seems some are day trading and others are mining the gap. The company is still not out of the woods, but I would think a lot of people are watching this one.
The ask was short lived. Everything immediately started stacking underneath. WLB was a major short play recommendation with many services while it was still on the NASDAQ. Dropping to the pinks usually does not discourage more short play. A stock like this one OTC with all these moving parts is not too common. It will be exciting to watch & see what happens.
There's a lot of horsepower tempering this one back. A 5mm+ share wall @ $.32 came up mid day and the stock never recovered.(For scale 5mm shares is equivalent to approx. 27% of O/S shares & approx. 35% of the O/S shares not held by institutional investors). Day trading then commenced below that threshold resulting in a weak close compared to early trading. Today's activity may draw more attention for the next two days. Anyway, it's good to see some positive news for this company. We will see where it goes...
News of a lifeline for a heavily shorted stock can cause fireworks. It's not out of the woods yet, as I saw the summary of terms disclosed on the new financing package had provisions for post petition conversion of the debt in the case of a future BK filing. I assume those terms would be standard in this type of example, regardless of the future outcome...
Thanks for the clarification. I misinterpreted the prospectus. Immediate assumption was the company was the seller. Honestly, I don't have a precedent of this example on anything I have owned. I would guess this sell off after lockup expiry was the strategy of the IPO investors from the beginning. I don't think they could be unhappy with the operational performance to date. My position is the same, I still like it, but can't get all of the moving parts(this 2nd offering, high short % on a positively trending young but profitable company, the anomaly special dividend, etc.). Best of luck
This one baffles me. EPS trending up for 1Q18... trading for less than 3x combined EPS of the last 4 quarters. Paid out a crazy special cash dividend in 4Q17 (close to 20% of the PPS at the time, ouch to the shorts); but the stock is still shorted approx. 17% of the float, reports crazy high institutional investor ownership & is experiencing an odd sell off because of announcing a 15% increase in outstanding shares for a capital raise. By basic evaluation methodologies, it is way undervalued if they dilute the shareholder 15% & don't make a single new dollar of earnings with the additional capital. Risk is they deploy it in a losing proposition. Have not seen that sort of trend from management yet, so...Yum, Yum, I may be dumb, but I'll take some more of this young company anyway. Opinions only, perform your own DD...
True, I've experienced the same... But it looks like a RS to get back over $1pps & stay on the NASDAQ is not happening. WLB is going to the pink sheets with no delays. Should have predicted this. Smart money that thinks WLB will not BK OR the shorts that think it will tank have both waited for this to make moves. Some institutional investors by policy, won't hold the stock once it goes OTC.
No investor conference call, Insiders exercising small option positions in the .40's,& a quick bow out to the pinks... I am starting to feel like a bag holder here...
Because the company was not in default at YE, which would delay having to consider BK protection; I had hoped for a short term bounce back regardless of the long term outcome. Has fallen like a rock instead. Will see.
From recent news, it seems WLB received loan covenant waivers from their creditors regarding going concern assumptions in the 2017 YE FS & any related cross defaults. This gives hope that these same creditors may consider troubled debt restructures & not force WLB to seek BK protection. With over 45% of the stock being held by institutional investors and reported short interest above 10% of the float, if the Street becomes uncertain about the BK filing, this could POP. But if they Chapter, it's bail out before $0 time. There have been recent large block acquisitions and disposals. Who knows? High risk for possible high reward.
My opinion only...
The positive PR about hitting the high end of EBITDA estimates for YE 2017 was totally offset by the PR that an outside firm was retained for restructuring strategies, which still makes the Street fearful of a BK filing.
This reminds me of holding Ford and GM in 2009. If it restructures without BK, your upside is huge. If not, you are in the tank. I don't like this game...
My opinion only...
Westmoreland Coal Shares Up after 13G Filing Showed Ana Clarke Reporting 5.3% Stake
4Q17 Financial Performance expected to be reported later this month
Institutional Investor Ownership has declined almost 15% this month. Articles like this one from 2/21 are causing folks to bail.
http://www.ktvq.com/story/37562852/westmoreland-coal-teetering-on-the-brink
Tough spot here. Any sign of stabilization would probably cause this to really pop, even if for a short time. But how long do you hold though with analyst talk of BK?
I don't know...
The referenced recent disclosures of material acquisitions were filings on investment firms or funds not the company itself. You hope this is a positive, but without details of the transaction(s)that caused the reporting requirement, you can't be sure (ex. general accumulation, warrant execution, debt to equity conversion, preferred to common conversion, Firm M&A, etc.)
My hopes are that the WLB news regarding stifled negotiations on the debt restructuring between companies coming out during the time of the February market correction may have set off some stop loss triggers creating a domino effect to advance this recent tumble.
Others on this chat board are concerned that the steep drop & sell off could be a sign of more to come.
The big question is do the changes in key management roles help lead the company back to profitability or create confidence in the markets to raise capital during a time that coal futures look a little better. If one or both of these do not happen in the near future, the long term sticking power of the balance sheet is questionable.
Tough call here...
My opinion only
It appears by recent filings that some institutional investors have increased their positions in WLB to exceed 5% creating a need to report which is encouraging. Since I am holding this, I hope that some investors liquidated and picked up some better bargains in the energy sector last week during the mini-correction, causing a tumble following the negative PR regarding debt restructure negotiations. This one has a sizeable float and a lot of institutional holders (65%). Could pop or flop.
I have DCA'd as far as I can go. Concerned but hopeful here.
Opinions only. Do your own DD. I normally lose
Good news in all this is while BTCS is in limbo in many Shareholder accounts, the share supply is down and demand is pushing the PPS up nicely during this transition. Hopefully we will see a stronger PPS with resistance support when the shares are untied. Seeing this progress while the short term flips are off the table,makes one consider a longer term hold. IMO
Please do not take any chat board discussion as guidance to buy or sell any stock. Perform your own due diligence.
The answer is no CBSS. Total irony. I didn't even see the prior question when making my post. I hope the feedback was helpful.
My post was definitely not promotional.
I am hoping to be a lotto player instead of a bagholder here.
One other thing... stock dividend announcements with future x-dividend dates are not usually a good thing. Hope this example is different.
10 day average trading volume is approximately 9.6% of total o/s, but the bid repeatedly goes away and the stock still hovers at .0001.
This type of volume with no bid resistance is normally real bad or potenitally good.
Bad means it is getting ready to die on the vine or expect a R/S.
Good means that maybe the majority of the shareholder base is holding and a few players are recycling shares at the bottom to urge others to sell at the bottom to grab them up.
I do not have a clue which scenario may be in play.
I am holding a bit of this, so I am watching closely.
Don't take chatboard conversation as a suggestion to buy or sell any stock. Perform your own DD.
Bitcoin exchange rates are improving which should stimulate expenditures which should impact BTCS sales revenue.
Also Bitcoin is slowly being adopted as an acceptable payment option in many mainstream retail & service areas which will help boost PR, awareness, & possibly the exchange rate.
BTCS is probably the most recognizable penny stock out there that is an ancillary business of bitcoin and is positioned to benefit from all this potential activity.
I am watching this one closely.
NEVER TAKE CHATBOARD DISCUSSION AS ADVISE TO BUY OR SELL ANY STOCK
Bitcoin and virtual currencies are not dead yet. Ancillary businesses of Bitcoin are in the gutter at the present, but should get a boost, if Bitcoin ever makes a turn & gets some positive press. BTCS is now positioned as one of those bargain basement stocks, if this would happen. Terrible 1st qtr #'s but some operating capital is still in place. Will BTCS stay the course until possible news and where is the bottom of this basement? That's the question behind the gamble. The stock does trade/report at the OTC-QB level and seems to release steady news. Makes it a possible lotto play which is high risk vs. high reward potential. Tough call...
Many out there in PC land do have a $4-5 cost basis in this.
Don't take chatboard discussion as advise to buy or sell ANY stock
Thanks for the feedback. I did not hear anything. I followed & shared Bnet Media's updated disclosure to EDGAR. My Bnet Communication stock received by dividend via EATR is non marketable and worthless. Would I like that to be different? Sure I would.
I bought a load of EATR/WINNMAX when the Bnet spinout was in the works thinking that an undervalued company was carving out the best piece of its business proposition to bring value to the shareholder. I was wrong & it did not happen. I have already taken my beating
I bought an amount of PROM when I used to argue with the PROM folowers on the EATR board years ago. Didn't get hurt because my average cost was roughly .00013.
Don't confuse me for a promoter. I gambled and lost, but am still holding some of my shares. If I see something out there that would be of interest to other bag holders that is a glimmer of hope, I will post it.
Lots of micro stocks out there with no revenue and no book value trade with regular volume because there is a some level of transparency and disclosure to gain investor interest. Nothing has been done here to benefit the shareholder.
Does not take much to get one out of the very bottom of the cellar. Thats why I still hold a token amount of both of them.
Do not take chat board discussion as advise to buy or sell any stock.
Most recent 8k posted by Bnet Media finally addresses the tie in to Bnet Communications in which some EATR holders have shares received via dividend a couple of years ago. I could not determine if the stock will convert and if so at what ratio or if Communications will just hold the stock of Media similar to EATR holding the stock of Communications. Hard to follow.
The 10k includes audited financials. Not much substance, but audited nonetheless. Makes you wonder...
I have noticed a consistent bid for EATR @.0001 for a while now.
I had almost given up on this, but this activity makes one hope that a push may be coming. Pushes can sometimes result in squeezes, which is what every LOTTO player is hoping for.
Somebody is buying EATR and Bnet is disclosing. Beats no bid and silence any day.
Anyway...Much better than where we have been in the past.
IMO. Do not take chat board discussion as advise to buy or sell any stock
http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?company=bnet&owner=exclude&action=getcompany
At a point of no bid today, I placed a sale order for 5M at .0001 just to see if the volume was legit and it was gobbled up immediately. Homestly I don't think there is a pot of gold behind the curtain, but somebody seems to expect a push coming soon whethter it is warranted or not. Insider, shorty's, gamblers??? Who knows. IMO.
I heard buzz this was coming but just caught this article myself.
Now the tough decision...
Should one dump Prom as possible in the 0001's to bail before this could go to the gray market?
OR...
Will this prompt some remote ressemblence of transparency to drive the price between now and May 1 without accomplishing entirely through a RS? The recent volume spike raises curiosity.
Another mining company who recently went into the energy drink business broke 4 cents last week and was in the 000's late last year. Of course I flipped out in the 00's for a tiny profit and missed out. Anyway... this mining company had no book value, no revenue, just steady news and marketing reports over the past year which has attracted interest.
I actually bought a piece of PROM when I debated with you and other PROM folks on the EATR board years ago sharing that I thought EATR might be an undervalued Lotto play trying to spin out the profitable line of their business to benefit shareholders. I was wrong...
No advise or answers here, just questions. Do your own thing.
Congratulations to the many that have made good $$$$ on this one. I missed the boat and flipped for a tiny profit in the 00's. Sick at my stomach now...
This one baffles me though. The buying momentum was good as positive marketing reports of the energy drink additives were rolling in. But now the stock price indicates a market cap of approx $60mm. As of Q3 2013, there was no revenue, no book value (deficit) and not a lot of working capital.
This has exceeded any expectation I had and is one of the hottest plays I've ever witnessed in my OTC experience.
I wish I would have understood the play better and stayed longer.
My opinions are not advise to anyone. Don't follow the guy the jumped off the train before it took off.
Found this related transaction on EDGAR. This could have a connection to the most recent PR from EATR regarding the sale of BNETTV assets. A lot of the same players are involved.
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1501268/000150126812000009/f8kchangeofcontrolnewdirecto.htm
My opinions are my own and are not suggestions to buy or sell. Perform your own DD and do your own thing...