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Zeev, what do you make of the low volume on Friday? Considering it was also an option expiration day, the volume was quite low... when we finally have a correction low, will it be a high volume capitulation kind of low? Or will it be a low volume deafening type of low? I was checking the chart in Jan-May of 1997 which looks like a similar correction and the low in April of that year occured in low volume. TIA
Thanks. I saw this news but why would people respond to this kind of news so negatively? There might be some other reason as Zeev suggestged ...
Hi Zeev, Glad I took your advice and sold half of my JCOM close to 30 a while back. With the rest of JCOM postion and apparently "married" to it and watching it down for no reason, do you have any opinion on why and what will it behave technically, assuming there will not be earning warning etc.? Thanks.
Hi Zev, Glad I took your advice and sold half of my JCOM close to 30 a while back. With the rest of JCOM postion and apparently "married" to it and watching it down for no reason, do you have any opinion on why and what will it behave technically, assuming there will not be earning warning etc.? Thanks.
OT -- does anyone use freetrade.com?
How is the execution? I know there won't be any live customer service etc. Wonder if I should move my Ameritrade accounts there to get the 20 free trades every month TIA.
Nov short interest on JCOM came out 25% less, surprise ...
Thanks Zeev. Your $40 million tax benefit is right on target according to what they said in the report:
"Tax Considerations
In the fourth quarter 2003, j2 Global anticipates reducing its valuation allowance and recognizing a substantial portion of its remaining net operating loss carry-forwards ("NOLs") as a tax asset. This is expected to result in a one-time tax benefit in Q4 2003 ranging from $9 million to $13 million, or $0.35 to $0.50 per fully diluted share (based upon fully diluted shares of 25,814,951 as of October 15, 2003). This benefit will be reflected in the "income tax" line in the Company's Statement of Operations for the fourth quarter of 2003. Assuming this takes place, beginning with Q1 2004 and continuing into the future, the Company will reflect both federal and state tax expense in its Statement of Operations. Currently, the Company estimates the accrual of income tax expense to be no greater than 40% assuming current tax rates; however, the actual tax rate accrual for 2004 will depend on several factors, including, but not limited to, tax rates and the relative composition of the Company's domestic and international business.
As of September 30, 2003, j2 Global had available NOLs for federal and state tax purposes of approximately $41 million and $43 million, respectively. These amounts are greater than the available NOLs for accounting purposes primarily because employee stock option exercises result in deductions for tax purposes but do not impact the amount of taxes required to be accrued under GAAP. We expect this difference to continue, as there are currently outstanding vested options to purchase 785,407 shares at an average exercise price of $3.06 per share, and unvested options to purchase an additional 1,871,965 shares at an average exercise price of $4.41 per share, 90% of which will vest over the next 2.5 years.
Additionally, as of September 30, 2003, the Company had available federal tax credits of approximately $1 million. "
It seems they will just realize a one-time tax gain in Q4 and start paying tax in 2004.
JCOM is 95% percent owned by institutions on a float of 17 million. Since the earning report it has been traded roughly 13+3.5+2.4+2.6=21.5 millions, so there got to be considerable shorts involved
Look at this: http://iw.thomsonfn.com/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=JCOM&range=7&mgp=0&i=3&hdate=&....
Over the last 4 trading days, much of the block trades were actually buying.
Zeev, I know you don't recommend holding JCOM for long-term, but would you please share your thoughts on JCOM's FA and why JCOM was punished so severely after its earning if it is possible?
I have a position in JCOM from $16.5 as I stated here: http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=1103635 and I must thank this board for bringing JCOM to my attention. I don't have time to monitor the market up close like people on this board do, but I do find most of the stocks traded by people here have good fundamentals. So I come to this board from time to time to get some stock idea ...
Here are what I come up with so far regarding why JCOM was punished badly:
1. The 4th quarter and 2003 guidance missed analyst's consensus. (2003 EPS: $1.03 vs. $1.05, Revenue $71.4M vs. $74M)
2. They said there was some usage slow down in real estate sector of the corporate channel.
3. They added much less subscribers than Q2 did on web channel. (24K vs. 37K)
The 1st reason should only have short-term impact since it appears that one of the five analysts were way too optimistic and the estimate statistics was skewed. Afterall, the company only estimated about $0.96 for 2003 in its Q2 report themselves.
The 2nd reason causes for some concern. But the corporate channel currently contributes less than 30% of its revenue and the real estate sector contributes 25% of the corporate channel, therefore the real estate sector is only about 7% of its revenue component. Also with the usage slowdown the ARPU (average usage rate per user) is at $13.54 (down from $13.79 in Q2 and from $14.04 in Q1), but its new subscription rate is at $12.95 already, so I'd expect any more decrease in ARPU will be very unlikely. Furthermore, its corporate channel growth is actually healthy: it added more corporate lines than Q2 did. So while there is some usage slowdown, it keeps adding new corporate customers at an increasing pace. (Wondering why there was no concern regaring ARPU decrease from Q1 to Q2?)
The 3rd reason bugs me a lot: it only added 24K subscribers in web channel in Q3, down considerably from adding 37K in Q2. That is one third less. Which more than offsets its price increase. Surprisingly $3/month more seems to have a material impact on user's perception. Of course, it is too soon to generalize the impact of price increase from one quarter, but if this pattern holds, the price increase could be a wash in terms of adding new users. The critical element will be how the price increase affect current users as that only began in the middle of September. My own business uses e-Fax and I was on a yearly plan and I don't think I will cancel it coming next year: $12.95 a month is still good comparing to buying a fax machine and adding a new phone line (which itself costs more than $20 a month), plus I don't want my fax number changed. So there is some stickiness in JCOM's user base. But I could be wrong.
Having said all these, I just noticed on Yahoo that they have reduced JCOM's 2004 estimate from $1.44 to $1.19 ... Yuk.
TIA for any input.
No idea. but apparently it moved JCOM.
CHICAGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct. 1, 2003--Dennis Slothower says it's a good time to nibble in the stock market, and offers four recommendations to keep you satisfied before taking a bigger bite once strong third quarter earnings are realized. Learn about GENERAL GROWTH PROPERTIES (NYSE:GGP), j2 COMMUNICATIONS (NASDAQ:JCOM), NORTH COAST ENERGY (NASDAQ:NCEB), and PC MALL INC. (NASDAQ:MALL). Click here for the full story exclusively on Zacks.com: http://featuredexpert2bw.zacks.com/
Here are the highlights from the Featured Expert column:
Because the stock market is short-term oversold, Dennis wants investors to do a little nibbling at these levels. He doesn't want you to commit too much capital right now, because the first couple of weeks in October could be shaky. However, he thinks as more and more earnings reports are released, the market should respond favorably.
GENERAL GROWTH PROPERTIES (NYSE:GGP) is a REIT engaged in the ownership, operation, management, leasing, acquisition, development, expansion and financing of enclosed mall shopping centers. For the six months ended 6/03, revenues rose 35% to $558.6 million.
j2 COMMUNICATIONS (NASDAQ:JCOM) provides outsourced messaging and communications services to businesses and individuals worldwide. For the six months ended 6/30/03, net income before accounting change totaled $11 million, up from $4.8 million.
NORTH COAST ENERGY (NASDAQ:NCEB) is an independent natural gas and oil company engaged in exploration, development and production activities primarily in the Appalachian Basin. For the six months ended 6/30/03, revenues rose 38% to $31 million. Net income applicable to Common rose 89% to $8.5 million.
PC MALL INC. (NASDAQ:MALL) is a direct marketer of personal computer hardware, software and peripheral products for individual customers, home offices, small businesses and large corporations. For the six months ended 06/03, net sales rose 14% to $453.7 million.
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Thanks. What I am trying to get is in a situaltion like this, whether it is bearish in the short-term, or I can not draw any conclusion from that.
I meant the number of asks and bids ...
A novice question ... on island it shows ASK is more than 3 times of BID for RIMM, does that really mean anything? How to correctly interprete that? Thanks.
No way. Even 1 million got you 0.3% only.
09:04 ET RMBS Rambus upped to Buy from Neutral at B. Riley; target $37.50 (18.90)
The upgrade is based on firm's view that RMBS will succeed in overcoming the brunt of the charges that the FTC is bringing against it. At a minimum, firm believes the FTC will be unable to restrict RMBS' right to DDR SDRAM royalties. Estimates that RMBS could soon be in the position to collect as much as $420 mln per year in DDR royalties alone (at the RAND royalty rate of 3.5%). At RMBS' 32% tax rate, this represents $286 mln in after tax cash flow, or $2.71 per share. Firm's new price target of $37.50 is based on a 15x P/E on a $2.50 EPS target... (Stock currently trading down 3% in pre-market at $18.34).
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High taken out today?
Yes, payroll tax as well.
In my last company they offered stocks in exchange of worthless options. Each time when shares were vested, the broker in charge automatially sold a portion of stocks to cover all the taxes: federal, state and payroll. The funny thing was when the stock was at $1+ plus, and you had, say 250 shares vested, you would end up having more than half stocks sold considering they still wanted to charge full commission for EACH employee even though they sold in bulk.[g]
Is FDRY buyable at this weakness? Downgraded but seems able to rebound with CSCO and JNPR.
Some conference presentation ...
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/030619/lath049_1.html
Will it sustain?
Does it make sense to hold JCOM a bit longer? My order was finally hit at 33.01.
Afterall, it is making money and it is projected to earn $1.85 a share this year ...
Is FRE oversold? at one-year low...