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Thanks AD...interesting no mention of LDK 387 effect on brain mets ...may imply no material actvity
BW, agree with your points regarding CLVS results with the only qualifer being that 42 pts were on the drug. Notwithstanding that some of these pts were at low dosage, efficacy is at just over 14 percent. In comparison, very few 113 pts with documented T790 mutation have been dosed.
At ESMO, Ariad reported one sudden death. Given that the same KOL (Dr Getinger) from the ESMO presentation is making a second presentation now at ASCO would indicate that he still has the same enthusiasm for AP 26113.
Good find. If Ponatinib is dirty...Nilotinib is filty
A couple of potential tidbits that are not "baked in" could include:
An update on the 325 patients that HB disclosed on the last call to reflect April numbers.
Secondly, HB is likely to disclose ratio of first, second or third line prescriptions as well as the ratio of chronic to accelerated/blast. HB had stated in the prior call that this information would be forthcoming in the Q1 call.
Where did you get info that some doctors are "half dosing"? I know there has been dose reduction but I am not aware of half-dosing.
According to one of the latest conference calls HB mentioned that the prescription amounts vary and can include one month or two month supply. I believe that dosage is one tablet per day.
Gosh..looks like HB is contemplating a stock split :)
Aria has $500M!!
Sorry..my comment was not directed to anyone in particular. I think many of us (including myself) were spoiled by the market's reaction the last time Ariad raised money and saw the price go up 3 pts after the sale. It looks to me this time the market had a hard time swallowing the additional 16-17M shares this time around and alot of these shares were purchased by the "fast" money. With a solid product launch more "value" investors will replace the fast money and I agree with BTH that the fast money will add volatility around the binary events surrounding 113.
I disagree that Q1 earnings are already built in to stock price. Alot of investors were spooked by the black box label warning and a bunch of analysts cited the warning label as a potential obstacle to a successful launch. If Q1 earnings beat forecast and vindicate Ariad's position that the warning label will not effect the launch, alot of value investors will begin looking to get in or back in to the stock. HB has maintained all along that as a second line therapy there is no reason to think it can't match Tasigna and Sprycel revenue. A successful launch will validate that position.
[Chuckle]..I wonder what drug AF and the "healthcare investor" would choose if they got CML...I would bet the dirty drug.
You are using a double negative...not sure if you agree or disagree :)
Agree...Ariad PR seems to be incorrect if a pt starts on Gleevec must switch to Syprcel or Tasigna before Iclusig. Initially, I was thinking since Syprcel and Tasigna are approved for front line, the Ariad PR was correct. Ariad will need to clarify this ambiguity.
My takeaway from Rachel's note is that PFE is paving the way for Ariad for 113 and Pona through the promotion of genetic testing in lung cancer. My only quarrel with Rachel is that while she gives value to 113 for ALK testing, she neglects to note that genetic testing may likely promote Pona sales for RET and FGFR in lung cancer as well as 113.
Thanks..thats what I thought as well.
AD, do you know whether your weekly TRx of 51 includes the 47 NRx? Also, do you know whether a weekly TRx perscription number represents a weekly dose supply? In other words, can some patients be receiving a months supply with each TRx and other patients receive a weeks supply? Thanks for any insights you can share.
Looks to me she assigns 37% enterprise value (10/27) to 113 and almost solely in the ALK indication. What is contradictory is that she claims to assign immaterial value to EGFR yet lists that as a potential downside at the bottom of her report.
Specious argument...cash for a biotech is a short-lived asset; more shares means more sharing in the future earnings of pona and 113. I would've hoped for debt since at these record low interest rates it would be cheaper financing. Would love to know why this wasn't pursued.
Stock prices reflect FUTURE cash flows
Wow...I have to rethink my investment after watching this...I am way too underinvested in ARIA
I don't think that counts as a sale. Looks like he vested 25,000 shares and sold 10,000 to satisfy the tax withholding.
The biggest disconnect for me was the panel's focus on rida's toxicity relative to benefit and the position by HB that rida's most common adverse side effect were mouth sores and which HB stressed were reverseable with either lower dosage or going off the drug. Merck didn't seem to really argue the point that the side effects were reversable with lower dosage or going off drug today. In my mind, if the toxicity is reversable, why not try the drug to see if it works for me like it did for Mrs Boone and if not, I go off the drug.
Harvey repeatedly stated on various conference calls that the trial was not powered to measure overall survival vs placebo. Its seems ridiculous that you reach an SPA with the FDA on how to structure the trial, meet the primary endpoint and then have the FDA rule against you because the trial didn't show efficacy against an endpoint the trial was not structured to demonstrate.
I don't recall Ariad ever disclosing whether 113 crosses BBB. Given Rachel's comments regarding ALK+ and brain mets, surprised no asked on the last analyst call.