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Green today. You will see.
We're holding pretty strong considering everything will go to hell in the market soon...
I think you'll get it.
I think you're right. It's scary how similar this trading trend is to last summer.
Just a little more volume could do wonders here.
Before, during, and for some time after mergers and acquisitions - the share price of the larger company, that is buying or merging with the smaller company, typically declines. At the same time, the share price of the smaller company typically increases - depending on the premium.
There are hundreds of examples and this is a widely witnessed/accepted phenomenon.
Totally agree. Any whiff of news from up north blows away my expectations for the next 4-8 weeks - it would be a welcome surprise :)
This is trading exactly like it did in July 2010 - except we started at a much higher base this time: 0.025-0.03 in 2011 vs 0.003-0.005 in 2010.
We do have about 20-25% more shares outstanding than last year at this time so that will hold the run back a little bit.
So I think we can run to about 0.35-0.40 in the very short term (next 4-8 weeks) based on SRK Report coming out with hints about the potential value of what's in the ground and the speculation surrounding MLV dealings.
That would put the short-term market cap between $210 and $250 Million - even if there is dilution going up to 650 Million shares outstanding during that time.
This seems quite reasonable to me considering the resources that LBSR holds at this time. This assumes no NAK/Alaska-related developments yet.
We're going to close flat today.
Someone is playing games.
There's little to no volume moving it...
Quiet before the storm.
Is the SRK report expected to have any sort of valuation for the area which was studied?
The usual lunchtime slump...
That 0.056 just doesn't want to give in...
Does anyone have any links to similar SRK studies done for other companies? - so that we can predict what data will be included.
That's not exactly true. Any valuation of the company, no matter how discounted for risk, needs a factual jumping-off point. That factual point would be the value of the commodities that LBSR has the claims to.
You can cut it or discount it any way you want - but the fundamental value of LBSR is based on the value of its commodities - including Copper.
Thanks Amigo. I have a feeling that more of those shares were dumped earlier this week. I'd love to get an updated number on the total shares outstanding (beyond the 602 Million number). Have you been getting that from Tracy?
Is there a public tally of how many shares have ACTUALLY been converted by the warrant holders? I want to know how much is left to dump by them.
What is the current share structure looking like?
Hey moondoggy - what's the latest on the share count?
Of course I understand. I was just being a smart-ass. My point was that short-term impatience with this stock is absurd.
Not sure what you mean - I'm up over 1000% in 12 months with LBSR.
It's more of a gut feeling than anything else.
There is some logic to it as well:
1. LBSR is a small company in terms of staff
2. This makes the CEO particularly important in terms of decision-making and general direction of the company
3. On top of that - he is one of the biggest share holders
4. Briscoe is getting up there in age and has been at this for many years
5. He may not want to deal with years more of exploration, development, etc.
6. Selling right now with speculation swirling and metals soaring may be just right.
I believe that a full buy-out is on the table. The increase in share price is due to speculation about this scenario.
An outright sale of Alaska assets would nullify that statement.
We shall see in a few hours.
How do we find out if it's employee options being converted or the warrant holders?
To sell into good news.
Isn't that what all stocks do...go up and down?
It feels like the calm before the storm...
Up and down and up and down and up.
It's been an interesting ride for the past month. We need some certainty coming from the company shortly. It feels like we're significantly undervalued - even if you consider all 600+ Million potential outstanding shares.
All the warrants are already priced into the current market cap - i.e. the dump of the shares would cause a temporary move at worst.
It's hard to believe that anyone would think it is indeed LBSR data.
Haha - sure you will :)
You're probably leading the purchasing volume.
There is nothing to be angry about. This stock has had an incredible run over the past 2 months. There will be natural and un-natural fluctuations.
Nothing goes endlessly straight up. If everyone is so "long-term" here then they should maintain the long-term perspective.
Last 30 minutes will be telling.
It seems that they kept the claims they felt had potential while dumping the ones that are more of a long-shot. Briscoe is a geologist first-and-foremost so it was probably an efficiency play.
It would be unwise for me to guess. But some of the elements in play are clear:
1. The value of the land that LBSR has the rights to
2. The cost of extraction
3. The risk of imperfect knowledge.
#1 adds value to a potential buy out total while #2 and #3 take away value.
I think that's right. Briscoe's a geologist after all - why pay for land that seems worthless when you can focus on land that has potential?