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Since the ball now is on your side of the courtyard, I suggest that you go count how many they really sold the last 15 years, so that we can have the right number?
Yes, I'm waiting too. When looking at afterhours, it does not look too bright, but maybe somebody just chickened out? Well, on the other side if they had gotten the Registration, it would have been here by now ?
Well, no problem - as long as the share Price increases with the same multiplicator ;)
But I'm actually convinced that the increase in share Price will be much more than the change in stock numbers, if there ever will be one....
Dear HB,
I really liked your post and it's great to see that (still :) ) some "oldies" in the stock are around! Also, it's great to see that there are somebody who do not only think OS and AS, but in the product behind.
My number of shares have increased more than 142 fold since I bought and sold my first ECOS stocks at around 3 cents so for sure I too am curious to see that they succeed with their plans/products.
In regards to the distribution thing, then I wondered if there may be some restrictions to the transport of Kerosene whereas the transport of M-Fuel straight is less regulated? Maybe also a question of fire hazard (in regards to Kerosene)?
Regarding logistics, maybe the transport of M-fuel straight can be handled by the Korean part of ECOS?
If you need somebody to describe how this Whole thing is working, please do not ask me because as I understood in the first descriptions of the chicken project, then everything should be mixed in the Machinery of ECOS and then the final product should be sold to the farmers, but now it seems that we sell M-Fuel and somebody else Sells kerosene and at farm level we make the mixture, in the tank of the farmer. If I should take the NO-hat on, then it seems that they are doing these Projects according to the principles of "learning by doing". In theory, what they invent Work, but when you go out in real life and discover that it does not exactly Work the same way as predicted, e.g. due to local/national legislation/restrictions or different equipment used by different farmers, etc. then there may be a long way to success (if we ever get there..)....
But I still like the idea and in this case, I Invest with my Heart and not my brains. I do not see it as a huuuge problem the dilution, because I just follow along and increase my holding proportionally with the dilution. If we one day have a success, it will go that much faster upwards.
But good luck to us all and hopefully one day, we get the real Picture of how this project is going to look like...
Sincerely yours,
Kakao!
Have bought a bunch here today at 8.15 - then we will have to see how it goes!!
If nothing else possive tomorrow, I'm sure that we will get it by end of April
Good luck to us all!!
I'm for sure in that list as well and Monday, I will be even deeper when I buy a few more...
I'm not just long.....I'm really looooonnnngggg
I guess everybody easily can see what both Vince and tfall are up to...
I myself have kept quiet for quite some time, done my DD and I trust in what I have been able to find out. I hope everybody else does the same and ignores foghorns like Vince (actually, at some point I had him suspected to be Surfguy, who apparently lost some Money when the number of Loose shares mounted up) and tfall!
Good luck to us all :)
Nice :)
Codaras and LR8,
I was wondering if the new assessment on available biomass is due to the potential increased production from the initial plan to the current plan? I do not remember the exact numbers, but if production is to go up, input will also have and if the additional input is not available, the biomass will be a bottle neck and possibly they just want to make sure that this is not the case?
Since when have they had the Swirl Boiler technology? This one is a new one to me....
http://www.ecolocap.com/products.php?id=10
So was it sold on the bid or bought at the ask?
I have no level II, so no idea...
Thanks!!
I think that 0.002 is my ASP, so sure, I would like to see it there soon too ;)
As far as I can see on TK, they have 14.5M shares outstanding, so "slightly" less than ECOS...
But "similar" is that they closed yesterday in 0.0002.....
Would love to see ECOS like BMMCF is behaving today.....
Or maybe he had prepared it for Friday and then suddently remembered how many spelling mistakes there were the last time, so decided to send it to proofreading first, before publishing it in the blog....
Waurw! and only 100 votes against? I reckon all these nay saysers did not use their powers ;).....
I myself is in the bowl with 420M votes...
If I may contribute with what I find to be a good fact from a R/S is when stock price comes above 0.01 cause I trade through TradeKing and here you can only buy (and sell) if the stock price is above 0.01.....as it is now, I can neither buy nor sell!!
Well, I'm curious too, to hear if they mentioned anything about future hopes and dreams...
I find it rather odd as well - I reckon that negociations are really going on (JMHO) and they may have estimated that a solution is close and therefore they wanted to give it the time required, to see if they could solve the financial dilemma without this extreme increase in shares. Ofcourse this is still only my opinion, and possibly this may have been stupid, but Friday I increased my position with a bit more than 30%......
All the best of luck to us all :)
ArchieK,
I guess it is not easy to get something directly from them. What I use is the RSS feed from SEC homepage. I have actually never learnt how to use the RSS feeds, so I'm not sure that I use it correctly, but in the header of my browser, I have a link to the RSS and when I click it once (in firefox), I get all the latest filings on a long list. Here it is easy to see if there are any new news as unread news is marked orange and old (read) news is marked grey. you just have to click the link, without having to enter the site, if you understand?
Marco, don't make it worse than it already is ;)
It is only a 4 billion shares jump as we go from 1 to 5......
But ofcourse, on the other hand, who says that they ever will issue all or maybe part of the new shares?
Surfguy,
You see that GALE sends x amount of shares onto the market. The shares are sold at market Price and they get the sales Price - 3%. The two agents that are responsible for placing the shares get 3% and GALE gets 97%. ECOS on the other hand (as I understand it) gave e.g. asher x amount of shares for the amount they lent (maybe 1000 shares per 1 USD lent?) so asher does not mind about the PPS, as long as it is above 0,001 - I'm sure about the exact figures so please forgive me if it is not correct....
So in the case of GALE, it is in boths interest that the shares are sold as expensive as possible as 3% of much is more than 3% of nothing.... in the case of ECOS, Asher does not care that much about the PPS, as long as it is above break-even.
So if ECOS would have needed 1 million USD and they could get 0,01 in the open market, without having to dump shares, they would only have needed to issue 105 M shares instead of 1 billion sold off the market to Asher.
But I guess it is a question of timing, because if you are in serious need of the Money, it is not sure that you have the luxuory to wait until your 105 million shares have been digested naturally by the market (the additional 5 million shares are to pay the agents) and this may be the problem of ECOS, when compared to GALE....
I'm wondering why ECOS did not try to make a similar arrangement to get their shares on the market as one of my other companies? In this way, I'm sure that we wouldn't have seen such a beating of the PPS as it would NOT have been in the interest in the Market Maker.....more likely, the higher PPS, the better!
Sales Agreements
On May 24, 2013, Galena Biopharma, Inc. (“we,” “our” or the “Company”) entered into at-the-market sales agreements with each of MLV & Co. LLC (“MLV”) and Maxim Group LLC (“Maxim”) pursuant to which we may offer and sell from time to time through MLV and Maxim, acting as agents, shares of our common stock, $0.0001 par value per share, having an aggregate offering price of up to $20 million. The offer and sale of our shares through MLV and Maxim will be registered pursuant to our Registration Statement on Form S-3 filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, or “SEC,” on May 24, 2013 and are described in detail in the related preliminary prospectus dated May 24, 2013 included as part of our Registration Statement. No sales will be made until our Registration Statement has been declared effective by the SEC. The offering pursuant to the sales agreements will terminate upon the sale of all shares subject to the sales agreements or the earlier termination of the sales agreements as permitted therein.
Under the sales agreements, MLV and Maxim may sell shares of our common stock by any method permitted by law deemed to be an “at-the-market” offering as defined in Rule 415 of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, including, but not limited to, sales made directly on The NASDAQ Capital Market, on any other existing trading market for our common stock or to or through a market maker. MLV and Maxim may also sell our shares under the sales agreements by any other method permitted by law, including in privately negotiated transactions. MLV and Maxim have agreed in the sales agreements to use their commercially reasonable efforts consistent with their respective normal trading and sales practices to sell shares in accordance with our instructions (including any price, time or size limit or other customary parameters or conditions we may impose).
We have agreed to pay MLV and Maxim a commission rate of 3.0% of the gross sales price per share of any of our shares of common stock sold through MLV and Maxim, as agents, under the sales agreements. We also have agreed to reimburse MLV and Maxim for legal fees and disbursements, not to exceed $12,500 each, incurred by them in connection with the negotiation and preparation of the sales agreements and have provided MLV and Maxim with customary indemnification rights.
Which way? up or down?
Yes, I understood that too.
I was more wondering whether their debts were $650.000+ or if it was $650.000.000+....
I understood the former, but could of course be mistaken ;)
:)
I would get really worried if they had 650 million USD in debt and still not constructed even one NPU ;)
But, to be honest, if they only had gone up to e.g. 2 B shares, then there would have been the chance that it wouldn't have taken long before they would have to increase the number of shares again. As they probably can't get the market price for the shares, 500 M shares would probably only give them around 50-100K USD, which could have kept us afloat a couple of months or so? So better make it big.....
Although, I would have preferred income instead, but if the alternative is bancrupcy, I vote for 5 B shares....
The problem for ECOS has all the time been lack of communication. And due to that, now also lack of credibility....
Assuming that they are sincere and not trying to fill us with BS (sometimes, I feel like this...), then they have a product with possibilities. They are working on getting it out to the customers, but to be able to produce the product, they need financing (or partners). If they just could keep communicating about the progresses (as well as set-backs), I'm sure that we wouldn't have been down here, but possibly still around 0.003 or something like that. Consistency in communication would also have been great, e.g. they come up with an idea (e.g. the development bank for the project in ukraine), but then we do not hear a tweet more about this? What happened to this plausible project? And many others?
If I should be honest, I'm not really sure that MS and his management are capable of bringing the product to market, and therefore it may be actually desireable if somebody else with more possibilities took over ECOS (maybe for shares in their company) and did something more wholeheartedly about getting the product to market.
Well, but hopefully somebody can find the time to attend their shareholder meeting and find out what's going on (for real)? I would have loved to, but it's rather far to go there, here from Brazil.
So now, when still holding all my shares and not selling until its all over, I'm really interested in getting some kind of insight into the progresses (or lack of the same) of the company. If nothing else, to get an idea about if something really is going on or if it's just a show that they are pulling off, on behalf of ignorant shareholders, like myself...
With hope of good luck to everybody, whether they stay or not!
Kakao!
You should try and call him and explain you views? Maybe he will give some indications?
866-479-7041
Well, high and high.......I guess that my average is around 0.0022
That would be nice!
If I should give my humble opinion as well, then we are not getting a financing deal, because why keep on loading new stocks onto the market, if we have financing within e.g. the coming week? Well, I guess that would be foolish, so I guess they have decided to take their own path and they try to finance the NPU's they need with the shares. And income? Well, I guess not, because why issue shares if you get income from the sales of your products? It is the same thing as if you have financing....
So I guess it will be as always, i.e. a lot of "soft" statements about all the possible deals and how green the grass can be on the other side, but for the time being none of these have gone into fruitification. So as you may hear, I'm a bit pessimistic, but I'm not selling my shares as I still believe that the company have some products that are really needed in the future, but I guess that they need some kind of help to get this one progressing.....
The NT 10-Q is out - so we have to wait another 15 days for the 10-Q as well :(
Ofcourse we will get there (and above), it is just a question of when.....
Well, I accumulated 300K today, so if everybody is like me, then yes, accumulation is going on ;)
Surfguy,
My guessing is that the distributer, which already has access to Kerosene and Methanol, comes with this and ECOS comes with M-Fuel and the machinery.
The cost for the distrubuter per L D-20 would be 500 mL Kerosene and 230 mL methanol and the cost for ECOS would be 20 mL M-Fuel as well as financing/delivery of the machinery. I assume that the labour force is already available at the distributer to handle the machinery.
So as we need 2% = 20 mL M-Fuel per Liter D-20, or rather, we can prepare 50 L D-20 with one liter of M-Fuel then we get: .475 x 50 = 23.75 per 50 L D-20 to cover our part of the party, i.e. 1 L M-Fuel and machinery. A production of 900,000 L per month would give us 427,500 USD to pay for the 18,000 L M-Fuel that is needed as well as paying for the machinery.
Just to clarify how I imagine the facility, then it is something (a NPU or several) that will be set up at the distributers place and the manpower of the distributer (maybe paid partly by ECOS as well) will handle the formulating.
So it's like having a party. You come with the beer (Kerosene and Methanol) and I come with the Champagne (M-Fuel) and we charge everybody who wants to take part in the party.
This is the only way I can see that 0.475 USD per L D-20 makes sense. ECOS needs to get paid for inventing the technology as well as using their patented M-Fuel - you don't do that by selling it cheaper than you can produce it and thus loose money!
I guess that we never get the solution to this equation from MS, but for sure we should get some kind of indication in the next financial reports. What worries me though a bit is how and where they formulate the D-20 they should be selling now, if they don't have the facility now?
How many facilities would they then have to set up, to be able to handle the 12 M L per month that they hope for in September, if they try to set up facilities to produce 1.5 M L/month???
A leading question, I know - if we get one, we still need 7......
If I should do some speculating as well, with the help of IvoThaPro, if we assume that one facility is one NPU 60, then this would require 8 NPU 60's.....or maybe 7 could handle the production of 12 M L per month.
If I should take my YES-hat on, then the 0.475 USD that they charge per liter D-20 is for the M-fuel, water and the formulation, whereas the distributer comes with the rest. This would give a price of 23.75 USD per liter M-Fuel which should give sufficient room to pay for the investment in the NPU's/formulation facilities.
If they sell it for 0.875 for the farmers, there is only 0.40 USD left for the distributer, but I think that the price of 1.0-1.2 USD per liter kerosene is for the end user and the distributer should, no matter what, pay less than that......
So maybe it is like this that everything is put together?
Everything just my opinion :)
Ah, forgot another speculation. We always only consider the 3000 farmers as the foundation for the sales, but I'm quite sure that there are more chicken farmers who are not member of the association and when they meet with the colleagues in other context, they will hear about the benefits and in this way, I'm sure that the market for D-20 in Korean chicken could be larger than "just" the 3000 chicken farmers in the association....
If I may just come with a minor correction, then the price of Methanol was 0.36 USD per litre methanol and as 23% of D-20 is methanol we need 230 mL per litre D-20, which - if my price is correct - would be approx. 0.08 USD per L D-20
So Kerosene + Methanol = 0.50 + 0.08 = 0.58 USD per L D-20
ok, he for sure must know much better than I do. I just tried to take the logical approach, but must apparently be missing something in the equation.
Well, let's wait for the news, what ever it is......Could actually be so many good things :)
Happy to be a shareholder and will hold possibly forever!
Could it be that he is explaining that it costs 0.475 to produce one litre, which sells for 0.875?
What We know is that the price for kerosene is 1-1.2 USD/L
and
we know that D-20 is composed of 50% kerosene, 23% metanol, 24% water and 2% M-Fuel.
With this we can conclude that just the Kerosene part of the D-20 would cost 0.50-0.60 USD (if we cannot get it cheaper?)!
Does anybody remember the price of M-Fuel? I think to remember a price between 10-15 USD per litre, but I do not remember from where.... if we take 15 USD/L, then the M-Fuel part of the D-20 would be 0.30 USD
If we take the methanol part of D-20, then I found a price of approx. 0.36 USD/L (http://www.methanex.com/products/methanolprice.html), which again would mean that the methanol part of D-20 would cost approx. 0.08 USD
Assuming that the water is for free (but never is...), then the calculation looks like this:
(50%*1.20)+(2%*15)+(23%*0.36)+(24%*0) = 0.98 USD/L
And then I have not yet even considered labour, machinery, etc...
As I see it, the only variable that we can adjust is the price that we pay ourselves for the M-Fuel....if we say e.g. 5 USD/L, then raw materials for the production of one litre D-20 would be 0.78 USD/L
So a selling price of 0.475 does not make any sense at all....and I sure hope that they will not go further down than 0.875 USD/L, also considering that the farmers already get the benefit of the lower volume....
The money needed here and now (dilution) could maybe also have something to do with the batteries (their original business), i.e. testing and scaling up production of these?
From the K10:
The Nano Li Battery promise to change the panorama of the energy storage market in the near-term by offering superior performance compared to existing lithium-ion batteries and greatly reduced prices. Several industries, including the telecommunications industry, have been receptive with either substantial orders or serious demonstrations of interest. We have signed MOU’s for production facilities in Vietnam and Holland.
MBT is in the process of locating a site to build its first battery factory in Korea. MBT is also in discussion with various international companies for joint ventures in battery production. MBT will be delivering 60 test batteries to an international communications company and a European bus company.
The MBT batteries will be undergoing full destructive testing and should be completed by the end of the 3rd quarter. At the present time the only regulations that may affect the MBT Nano Li battery is the transportation by passenger plane. Once destruction testing demonstrates the safety of the batteries they should be allowed to be transported passenger plane.
Yes, they do not come cheap!
But for sure I think that the whole idea behind is brilliant and if/when they get their distributor network up and running, I'm sure that we will see much higher PPS's
A water machine is not really an appliance that people would consider as a normality in the kitchen, but as clean drinking water become more scarce and difficult to come by, and thus more and more expensive (i.e. drinking water) I'm confident that more and more people will invest in a machine like this. Not only in private homes, but also in schools, offices, hospitals, etc. And the markets are not only in the US, but also in Central America, South America, Africa, Asia, Europe....so in other words, almost the entire world!
I think that there are a lot of opportunity in the future!
GLTA!