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?MT4 for Mac/OS with a few exceptions.......
Hey fellas, long time no see! Been trading off and on, but took a job that has me traveling, so it's sporadic at best until I can get into a good rhythm.
Anyway, the guy who lives in my condo while I'm gone is very interested in trading, but he has a Mac, as is having a really hard time getting set up.
I told him to go through Oanda, but he can't get an MT4 through there. He'd rather not go through another company since their demos expire, and he'd rather not download Windows either, since that's a good $200.
So what is our new enthusiastic trader to do in this case? I figure one of you would know, especially since we have programmers amongst us.
Here in the Pacific Time Zone, the Sydney session starts at 3pm, and Tokyo at 4pm. Like London and NY though, it's a grayed line. It's not like a bell goes off or anything and people immediately start trading. ;)
Nice! Waiting for London session. Want things to settle down at least a little.
BOJ and SNB interventions won't work.
Not my words or opinions, but a nice little write-up on this.
http://www.babypips.com/blogs/piponomics/why-the-boj-and-snb-interventions-wont-work.html
U/J just broke a descending triangle on the daily. Bullish pin bar forming on the E/U monthly. Two signs that make me cautious.
So oversold though, don't know what to think here.
I actually like these ranging days.
Scalped the heck out of the 5m E/U chart since 3am PST. Avoided the time between 6:30-8:00PST when the heads and tails from my candles were out of control. Good day here. It's the trending days when I miss out on the initial run that kill me. Days like this I love.
Daily E/U chart still screams bearish IMO. Had those nice tweezer tops at the .79 fib range late last week. Very strong signs.
I think what I'll do with that is just wait until my demo expires, and open up a $500 account with them, leverage up, and see where it goes. What's the worst that can happen? In three weeks, it never had 2 losses in a row. It's $500 I can afford to lose. The features are a little more advanced at that point in terms of how they overlay emerging patterns onto your MT4 and stuff like that, so that will be fun to play with. As I said before, I wanted a secondary broker that allowed scaling anyway, so there it is.
Autochartist - Final week of tracking.
It would seem that I'm shilling for fxdd, but I hope you guys give me more credit than that. I'm not even a real money customer there. :)
Turns out this is something that makes you pips week in and week out, and that's something always worth noting on the board.
So the final week's tally is a record of 9-5-4. Total for the three weeks I've tracked it is 27 wins, 11 losses, and a handful of draws. A 71% chance that if you follow it using the filters I set, your trade will hit the forecasted range they set after the pattern breaks.
It's a definite advantage play, and these are the things I'm looking for as a trader. If anyone knows of any others, I'm always happy to check it out.
Let's have a big week!
Yeah, I've never seen it like this. Granted I haven't been trading long, but this kind of gradual swing........220 pips in the past 4 hours. Afraid to do anything today, which is a shame.
CNUV should be the #1 board on iHub today with all the debate.
More sitting around and waiting for a deal that has no chance of actually going off before August 31st. That's just how these stocks work, I've been in enough of them. Still holding.
Bullish pin bar forming on the E/U weekly.
Autochartist results for Week 2
First off -- simple, you're gonna love Windows 7. A freaking revelation compared to past OS.
Another killer week for this thing. See my post last week if you want to see my criteria for grading it. Out of all the 8+ bar rated completed patterns, minus channel ups and downs, and minus metals and pesos, it went 7-2-5. Out of those 5 "draws", 4 of them came really close to hitting the target, netting you some nice pips if you played it smartly, and they definitely didn't lose you any money. The other draw did languish sideways for a long time, then shoot the other way, but any savvy scalper wold have exited out of it long ago.
Less examples this week make me think that a range-bound market creates more patterns.
But 7-2 this week, and 11-4 last week really make me think that there is lots of value in making a 1:1 trade every time these things pop up. I'll track for one more week, then if I decide to go ahead and put my own money behind it, let you all know if there's any noticeable difference when I do.
One pattern that came late Friday is still outstanding -- USD/CHF short 30m triangle, target .8083. The two left outstanding from last week ended up as draws, which makes sense. I see no reason to hang onto trades like that over the weekend anyway, I'll probably stop counting them altogether.
Any questions on this, feel free to ask. Liking it a lot so far.
Yeah, business is business I suppose, I understand that end of it. It all depends on who you are as far as how long to hold onto a demo. I started having rapid success within two weeks, and just got sick of leaving all that money on the table. Like I had said when you and I spoke awhile ago, I was already game for this due to sportsbetting and penny trading, the line between fearlessness and recklessness had already been toed. If I see something that works, I'll put my money down, no questions asked. I'm well up in my live account too thanks to you, git, and the other folks on this board, along with the babypips gang and my guy in Egypt.
I think there are lots of demo-traders out there who have a really good grasp of things, and have successful systems in place, but keep talking themselves out of making +EV plays until they have a sample size a decade long. Everyone who wants their money to work for them needs to understand EV (Expected Value) and attack it. It's not a difficult mathematical concept, if it was, I wouldn't understand it, that's for sure. Pro gamblers use it, you should too!! If you have something that works, just do it, and don't stop doing it. You'll come out ahead in the long run, if not much much sooner.
Just depends on the trader. I know what side I wanna be on.
Expires, huh? I guess what I'll end up doing is putting a small amount in a real money account just to keep it, so long as it keeps performing at this clip. It's like with my sportsbetting. If I have a guy giving out free picks, and he's making me a consistent $5K a year with those picks, and he finally decides to start charging $399.99/yr for them, I'm still going to buy them immediately. +EV is +EV no matter how you look at it.
And like I said, I'm looking for a second broker anyway to use for longer plays, so I can scale in/out from my phone as the day progresses. I'll still use Oanda's charts in all likelihood, so I'm not worried about that.
If this winning % keeps up, you bet I'll be on board! I'll update again next Saturday.
Autochartist, fun fun fun.
Signed up with FXDD so I could eventually have a secondary broker down the line to handle longer trades, since Oanda doesn't have any sclaing in/out features. The reason I chose FXDD, is because you can play with the Autochartist feature for free just for having a demo account. There are probably other ways to do this, but this is the one I found. It recognizes patterns for all the major and mid-major pairs as well as fib retracements (which I haven't dug into yet), and rates them before and after they emerge from the pattern itself. Really cool. I tracked their performance using this criteria....
- Only completed patterns with a quality rating of 8 or above (3-10 scale).
- No MXN crosses. For some reason they track these, and the spreads are normally too big for me to be interested.
- No metals, since we won't be able to trade those anymore.
- No channel ups or channel downs, since they just don't break out like they should most of the time.
Since 7/5, their record has been 11 wins, 4 losses, and 2 "draws". They give a forecasted range that they expect the price to reach. If it hits the range, it's a win. If it goes the other way, and would stop you out of a 1:1 trade, it's a loss. If it goes sideways forever, or comes really close to the range but just misses, I consider it a draw. 3 of the wins went well beyond the range, and 1 of the losses went right up against big news and could have easily been avoided.
There are 2 patterns that came about late in the day on Friday and are still open if anyone is interested. NZD/USD long, ascending triangle on the 15m chart, target .8401. And CAD/JPY short, rising wedge on the 4h chart, target 82.315.
Fun tool to check out if anyone is interested. Either way, I'll give out their record for the week on Saturdays for a little while and see if they can keep up this kind of success. If it does it could really be a nice way to make a +EV trade or two when I don't have any other trades going on.
Managed to grab 50 pips as it didn't seem to want to break the 200SMA anymore. I remember last month's action went smoothly upwards for hours, this one may do the same, but the first round of profit taking already happened, and it just wants to sit there now (It just punched through again as I type this). I should have been savvy enough to load the initial dip, I'll know better next time.
Fiber or "fibre" - Nickname for the E/U cross from what I've been told. I think it's due to the Euro being printed on cotton fiber or something to that effect.
Yeah, had to triple take there. Went ahead and went long on fiber. Here go nuttin.
Autochartist had a 4h triangle breakout, forecasted to 36.27, so it should be an interesting ride.
Where do you set your start and end points on the SDC?? And what parameters do you use? It all varies depending on how far you stretch it out.
The biggest thing I'd need to know there is how you decide when to enter on the G/U 1m. You're using Michaelowski's SMA lines on later TFs to help you along, I got that part, and I use it too to a degree.
Good example would be today though on the E/U 5m, price completely ignored the 100SMA, so it was no help. Wild candles, volume died off for a long time twice, right in the middle of the most active times of the day. Just a goofy day for the pair altogether, and I remember it being that way for he better part of the week after Memorial day as well. Finally gave a nice 60+ pip short 2 hours after the London close, but I was already frustrated and had gone back to bed hours before.
As far as what I do with real money right now, is a scalping system that I developed myself on the 5m E/U, and I get free alerts from a guy in Egypt on twitter (and he's fantastic), for longer plays. Very happy with results so far, but constantly trying to learn other methods, and get more familiar with price action. Also signed up for a demo account through FXDD so I can have access to their info base and their Autochartist thingy. I've been tracking completed patterns of 8 bars or better on the Autochartist to see how often they hit their forecasted range. 1-1 so far.
Slow day, good to update everyone on where we're all at I suppose. ;)
I normally don't since it's not as friendly to my scalping system, but on a week like this, it may be worth a look. I'll try it tomorrow. Congrats on a productive day!
Post-holiday choppiness. When does it usually return back to normal price action? All I have to go on is Memorial Day, and that week wasn't great, and just like this week, the holiday falls on a Monday, and NFP coming up on Friday.
Should I even bother scalping this week? I just got stopped out twice in a row, which almost never happens if I'm within that nice 6 hr active timeframe from 4am-10amPST. Thinking of going back to bed. Candles look like garbage. Volume low.
I agree. At first I just thought I was riding the strength of the Euro, but the other swissy crosses were jumping the same way. Glad I'm out for now.
Yeah, think I'm gonna take profits for now. Only think that looks good right now is the daily chart, everything else before stalling or getting ready to drop. I'd rather just get liquid here and ready myself for the next play.
I guess I'll just babysit it for a few more hours and see if short term I was right, then go from there. I appreciate the outlook as always!
I want to put a trailing stop on it, I just don't know what a good range would be for that. 30 pips? 50? Every chart from the M30 to the D1 still showing me bullishness.
Now +210 pips on this one! Need to throw a T/S on it(EUR/CHF). How big would you make it? First time entering this territory myself, unsure how to even handle it.
Inverted H&S pattern on EUR/CHF 4h
Neckline just about broken. Euro is strong.
Personal checks? I've been in restaurants for 12 years, and haven't seen anyone try and use one in probably the last 8. Crazy Texans!
Wow, missed it completely. Thanks! Wasn't on any calendar I had.
What the....
E/U just jumped 35 pips in 5 minutes in a dead trading period.
Had half a mind to short it back to the 100sma, but not touching this one.
Nasty, choppy day for scalping E/U.
First day I've seen this bad in awhile actually, for the style I use. Happy to sit this one out. Long stems up and down on the 5m chart = no bueno.
Nice! Any fading of the dollar right now is profitable. I would be out on the lake right now, but I want to see what this 100/200 cross does.
Mama said there'd be days like this.
Got up early, and caught that 90 pip run on the 5m E/U. 100 and 200 SMAs about to cross bullish if it keeps up. Stay tuned.
I would imagine bearish would be the way to go, no? If it is a triangle/wedge forming, you'd expect it to tap that bottom trendline one or two more times at least, or test out the 100SMA if anything. MACD heading that way too.
Friday PRs rarely good. I'd rather play the odds and hope we avoid it.
Techs lining up for a EUR/JPY short.
Having issues getting a screenshot up, but watch the daily chart this evening fellas and see how that candle closes out today.
Rising wedge breakout - check
Overbought Stochastic crossing below 80 - check
Crossing down past the 100SMA - check
MACD getting ready to cross down - check
CCI getting ready to cross below 0 - check
I know the book says not to use so many indicators, but I find them to be very helpful on daily and weekly charts as confirmation tools.
Tons of news on the euro out tonight. Anything less than spectacular could really trigger this thing down. Would love to hear more input on this from the board.
Just hoping it's not in the form of a Friday post-market PR. Usually negative, as I have said before. Not always, but rather play the odds.
It's just the logic of the timing. Releasing good news on Monday or during the conference call, or even after sets up our domino effect nicely. An after hours Friday PR sets up for a Monday CC that says how they're moving on and moving "forward".
In my experience Friday after hours PRs have been typically bad. Not to say this would be, I'd just feel a LOT better if it didn't come.
IMO we need to AVOID an aftermarket PR today. Friday PRs are often negative, and it would give GNTA a chance to buffer and sugar coat things in the CC, and hype up the drugs coming down the pipe to distract everyone from the 800lb elephant in the room.
An 8K would be fine. An aftermarket PR would scare the hell out of me.