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tstc and gure -- negative reports
jadeorstone.com
Buyouts, just heard from a fund that got financing lined up for a tender offer
There are PE funds in HK whose entire biz plan right now is to take private US listed RTOs and re-list in HK
I'm by no means saying that all the companies mentioned as candidates will close, but a lot of them will
There are a lot of legal issues that need to get sorted out, which is why they're taking time to get done
Once they start to happen though, and more of the lawyers, PE funds, banks etc get familiar with the process, there will be quite a wave
CGS Index - no interest - great contrary indicator!
Sector was quite strong given overall market today. I suspect a lot of short covering.
Who knows, maybe it's bottomed.
puda plunging... eom
Well I was early the last few months
I'm probably still early
In fact, shit, I've always been early
But so far I've never been wrong big picture and I've made tens of mils from zero. Early is not so bad :)
btw, eds and cccl are two of my largest holdings
i wouldn't short cmfo from your list
Going out on limb - bottom is in
Easiest short attacks have been made. Shorts were aiming to get them done by audit season. Sure there will be more, but they will be fewer and on average they will be weaker.
I think longs are as disgusted with space as they're going to get.
Institutions that went into space without knowing what they were doing have exited the space.
Institutional buyers that have been waiting for the 10ks and the shakeout are starting to buy.
A couple of companies actually getting bought out (HRBN, FTLK) could be catalyst that causes explosive move upward, just like last fall.
CCME PPS dynamics on opening day
Very important question we need feedback on...
Anybody short ccme from exercising mar puts?
If so, what are your brokers telling you in terms of how much time you have to cover your short position on the day the stock opens?
TDAmeritrade is saying that they will buy the shares at or near the open.
If other brokers are saying the same thing, there will be a huge artificial demand for shares at the open.
Longs should look to sell into this.
(Disc - I was long CCME through selling deep in the money puts ($20 to $30 strike price, Sept), but hedged my position by buying short-dated out of the money puts)
CCME PPS dynamics on opening day
Very important question we need feedback on...
Anybody short ccme from exercising mar puts?
If so, what are your brokers telling you in terms of how much time you have to cover your short position on the day the stock opens?
TDAmeritrade is saying that they will buy the shares at or near the open.
If other brokers are saying the same thing, there will be a huge artificial demand for shares at the open.
Longs should look to sell into this.
(Disc - I was long CCME through selling deep in the money puts ($20 to $30 strike price, Sept), but hedged my position by buying short-dated out of the money puts)
China Shoto going private at 50%+ premium
http://www.chinashoto.com/news/detail.asp?ID=194&tID=&tName=
chart:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CHNS.L&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=c&c=
I owned some of this one. It is pretty similar to CGS.
Sooner or later these will happen in US sector and the non-frauds will come back to life.
LIWA, I had urged the company to PR once they started the buyback
Rather than doing it quietly, I suggested they issue a PR once they started
I will be surprised if they don't spend the whole amount if the stock stays below 11
DEER, I too am uninspired, however...
Given that they really did spend $$ on buyback, and given that they really did institute a dividend, and given that they do have some institutional ownership...
I would not be surprised if these are the first guys to actually GO AFTER the shorts
No position myself at this point, but I am rooting for them
TXIC, will be ironic if this stock comes back to life now
I believe this is a 100% real company. It was once "the cleanest" of the Spacs/rtos. The problem was a conflict between US-based CEO and Chinese founder/majority owner.
I have heard from someone very deep in the name that the new US CEO is actually going to get filings all caught up.
I consider this a pure speculation, but if that happens, the stock will be over $3.
Conf call tomorrow will be interesting.
Liwa, gfre, watg, eds, cmfo, valv, yong, chop
Tell me what is wrong with these specific names.
I think now is a terrible time to give up on the space, while sentiment is this bad. Not saying it won't go down more, but this past Monday/Tuesday could easily have been the bottom (anyone who bought CGS then is up).
I believe this basket will be 3X higher in 2 years than it is today.
Sorry! that was joke 100%!
situation is depressing. it's friday evening. beautiful day in nyc. i am trying to find things to laugh about.
i have much respect for all the mods and ass't mods.
CNOA Hilarious. Do we have any screenwriters on this board?
Tragedy? Comedy? How about thriller? (i think odds are good that some CGS exec is going to get whacked before audit season is over)
I am very sorry for having touted this stock
I also feel very sorry for ping. i absolutely believe she was honest and competent
In hindsight, there was no way she could have uncovered in 2 days what Starr and Deloitte didn't uncover in over a year
I try to look on the bright side of EVERYTHING. I can say for myself that this experience has made me more humble.
Health and happiness to everyone
it's not *everything* getting halted, *everybody* resigning -- it's just a lot
my guess at this point is that it's probably 50% fraud in the space, and that half the fraud gets "cleaned out" in this 10-k season. that will leave another 1 out of 3 companies to get "cleaned out" in the future, probably over the next 12 months
but the companies that are real will see 2X to 5X appreciation in next couple years
you rato and others were right to not be long the space going into this 10k season
but i still believe that a broad basket of quality names will do great over next couple years
if i'm wrong and you're right (that it's 90% fraud), then, well, i fought the shorts and the, shorts won
GFRE, will someone please paint the negative position
company seems so damn simple (and good)
what don't the shorts like??
does anyone own ckgt that doesn't follow this board?
this kind of reminds me of cgpi...
i have zero information whatsoever that is ckgi negative, but it iS kind of funny
CHOP, i should add, maybe monday is better than today
but my assumption is that enough people saw what happened to aerl (and others with big warrant expirations as catalysts), that the stock won't get pummelled down to 5
i had previously thought that it would
now i think that enough institutions want to own the stock, that they have been buying and exercising warrants. so there very well may not be major warrant dumpage on monday
another factor is that most brokers will tell you that today is the last day you will safely be able to exercise the warrants. so they should have been dumped today
CHOP, AERL redux...
13M chop warrants with strike price of 5 are expiring tomorrow (monday practically speaking)
very solid company from a bunch of checks
nobody, but nobody, was going to buy the stock much in advance of that overhang
lid is getting taken off the pot
remember what happened to aerl??
just look at the historical prices and volume of aerl and aerlw just before the warrant expiration last october...
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=AERL&a=09&b=17&c=2010&d=10&e=18&f=2010&g=d
i'm sort of shocked that the guys pumping aerl are not all over this one
WKBT, double dare anybody to short it
These arguments just aren't good enough
Just looked at a prospectus for similar biz model selling convertible debt
Margins are similar.
Terms are worse (for the company) than wkbt's deal (which was small, and close to the only money they raised here, which after all was purpose for their listing in first place)
Weeks of DD has been performed by institutional investor with lots of china small cap experience.
Rato, you need to get a better understanding of the terms at which these stage companies can raise money from private equity.
Full disclosure -- I did buy a bunch of wkbt at 2.4 in their raise. and i personally didn't do diddly DD. so i can't vouch that wkbt is not a fraud, but i know very well that "just because it's so cheap, and just because they did a raise at a low P/E" doesn't mean it's a fraud at all. Some certainly are, some certainly aren't.
CMFO, great buy here, first time I've seen being located in Fujian a *good* thing
SHISHI, China, March 18, 2011 /PRNewswire-Asia-FirstCall/ -- China Marine Food Group Limited (NYSE Amex: CMFO) ("China Marine" or the "Company"), a manufacturer of Mingxiang® seafood-based snack foods, "Hi-Power" marine algae-based beverages and a distributor of frozen marine catch, today responded to shareholder concerns over possible radiation contamination of its seafood supplies.
"Our supplies of raw fish and seafood come from the Taiwan Strait, which is located between Taiwan and Fujian Province, China and thus pose no threat of contamination. In addition, this area maintains a separate ocean current from those of the East Japan Sea. According to the nuclear radiation-monitoring station in Shanghai, large-scale and long-distance radiation spread is unlikely as the primary containment vessel and fuel rods in the nuclear plant in Japan were not damaged. Under the current circumstances, only those residents within 110 miles of the nuclear plant will be affected," stated Mr. Pengfei Liu, CEO and Chairman of China Marine.
"Furthermore, there has been no disruption in the buying pattern of our customers and we do not anticipate one will occur," Mr. Liu concluded.
About China Marine
China Marine Food Group Limited is a food and beverage manufacturer of Mingxiang® seafood-based snack foods and "Hi-Power" marine algae-based health drinks, and a wholesaler of frozen marine catch in seven provinces in the PRC. Founded in 1994, China Marine has grown steadily and positioned its Mingxiang® brand as a category leader in 3,200 retail food sales points and 13,000 beverage sales points in China. The Company has received "The Famous Brand" and "Green Food" awards. Located in Fujian province, it is one of the largest coastal provinces in the PRC and a vital navigation hub between the East China Sea and the South China Sea. The Company is committed to the highest standard of quality control with the ISO9001, ISO14001, HACCP certification and EU export registration.
I believe LIWA is buying back their stock right now
Of course there's a lot of shit among the 200 or so CGS
Hopefully it's getting cleaned out as we speak
I believe a bunch of those left standing will go up 500% over next 2 years
If we don't see any buyouts or many buybacks happen in 2011, then I will agree with you
I think it's a new world post-ccme
people have learned
people should be much more open to hearing negative views on any stock
only thing that i don't think is useful (my opinion) is making overly broad negative comments about all cgs
HAHAHA CGS Song
I'm loving your posts now Rato.
You were right on CCME - not at the beginning but than sooner than I.
I now read all your posts to the very bottom even if I find them crazy.
Only serious comment is that you should try to limit your bashing to the stocks that you would really short.
Good article, yes
But maybe a bit too much Rato influence ;) wrt equating equity raises with fraud...
I am long SPU and TSTC and I dare folks to short them at current prices :)
Disagree. Those with clean audits great buys
Now is when wheat gets separated from chaff.
Now is the time to buy the wheat
CCME, Ouch. CGS, Ouch.
But now is time to buy. Agree that there is "no rush," but now is great.
I have lost millions in past few months, but I expect to make significantly more in next 12 to 18 months.
I still say: try to buy a basket of quality names. Don't use margin. Have a long term view. The space is getting cleaned out.
SIHI much safer than YONG IMO
there are no short arguments re: sihi
lots with yong
after spending 10 days in china, including meeting with hedge funds that are short certain names, i have more respect for the short positions than i did previously
unfortunately that includes ccme
overall though, i am more convinced that investors will do great with a basket of quality names held for 18 months
YONG, muddy waters, citron, in-depth report coming on yong's acquisitions
i will be shocked if we don't see that
the attacks on yong so far have been totally amateur. i expect the pros will join them.
i am not saying that i would be at all surprised to see yong at 15 in 18 months
YONG, only problem is future short attacks
The shorts never really blasted YONG for the, what was it $20 or $30 million, acquisition of its distributor's customer list. I expect that to come.
I also heard from an analyst who used to cover YONG that he didn't like the lignite mine (which still isn't operational) acquisition either.
Typically $$ going out the door to questionable acquisitions would be the tell-tale signs of fraud.
You might think Yong having big 4 auditor would protect them, but with both CCME and CAGC halted, not so much...
the question is, what happens after ccme resumes?
if terrible news? (eg major restatement or deloitte resigns) how low does ccme go? what happens to rest of CGS?
if neutral/bad news? (eg delay, but warning that there will be re-statement, but some indication that it won't be terrible) how low does ccme go? what about rest of CGS?
if neutral/good news? (eg delay, but indication that any restatement will be minor (like watg's)) how high does ccme go? what about rest of CGS?
if good news? (eg announcement of earnings, or even earnings date, something else, who knows)? how high does ccme go? rest of CGS?
Well, this has been painful
I still contend that holding a basket of the higher quality names in this space will do well in 2011.
Good job for those who have been out of the space til now.
For sure it could go lower, but it will be much higher than now by the end of the year.
thank you my DEER
that was an extensive short report yesterday
there is a good sized short position
but what a great quarter. what excellent management communication and actions
this time the shorts LOSE
SSE at 3000, another buyout proposal (CFSG)...
another november-like pop could be brewing. could be bigger and more violent. BOATLOAD of investors "waiting" for 10Ks. SHITLOAD of shorts who will run if momentum turns
zstn, i'm out now. but in tstc
i haven't done research to make me confident of zstn longer-term
my point would be that people shouldn't *over-react* to shelf filings and financings (at least certain types of financings)
or when they do over-react, it can be opportunity to buy
i think attitude toward zstn has been very similar to attitude toward tstc
i expect same pop with tstc. but since i have reason to believe that company is very real, i will keep (at least some) tstc after earnings
zstn, i bailed after rato and joe trashed it when it was 5.5
NOT ;)
seriously, sorry, i couldn't resist.
but pretty amusing trashing that went on some time ago
kind of reminds me of the folks trashing tstc now
we shall see as they say
zstn - i won this beer
TSTC - did any of you read the 8K?
I think it was very impressive. It lays out their business model and goes into great detail regarding the reasons for their high A/R.
I actually visited TSTC last week in beijing.
This is a very "real" company that is massively undervalued.
The only reason they were targeted by shorts was the super high A/R.
I do not believe that the shorts did ANY on the ground due diligence wrt TSTC. (this is very different from the other companies with very high short interest -- ccme, chbt, cagc, and others)