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I know I'm happy with the results and I wasn't talking about you
Maybe others can now admit that Denner is a major reason we all have more money in our bank accounts today.
They have one hell of an uphill battle given that ariads stock price in the summer was around 6, it increased over 100% to the 13s and the buyout still had a 75% premium.
It's an ambulance chaser.
Would you like to retract or redact this statement.
Hope you made good money Jbog. Best of luck to you. I thought you were one of the most reasonable posters. Maybe I'll see you around on some other board sometime.
Thanks DD. I'll be trolling your board looking for places to put my money once trump trashes the markets and everything is bargain prices
My view on Adam is he isn't as evil as everyone thinks and isn't paid by the shorts he's just a prick who makes more money when he is more of a prick. That's the best act of contrition we can expect from this anti ariad blogger
Actually he said we would be bought out this year and that 16 was the Maximum. That was less than 24 hours ago so I mean things change.
Congrats ariad longs. The quest has ended. Take your money and move on and enjoy!
Who cares it's a 14 cent move
The stock price hasn't been in the 20s for years. Not of the current shorts got in when the stock price was that high. No short would hold that long, certainly not when it fell to the 2s several years back. If you short at 20 and it falls to 2 you get out. You don't hold it another 3 years hoping to get better than 2.
Well there are plenty of catalysts for stock appreciation. Lets hope they solidify shortly. I for one think we are headed in the right direction but still not sure that a buyout is going to happen. I think it is in our best interest to happen but just wonder what is taking so long. The risk for Brig is very low (in the context of a pIII compound) as approval is all but assured. I would have to think the next compounds are too far off to make waiting longer a lucrative option. The time to be acquired is now, because absent a buyout we will likely have to partner Brig outside of the US and that would make a sale more complicated. I hope we have some buyers lined up and we are just working out the details.
I disagree, while it might happen its not inevitable. Again I've heard that for over 5 years. As for a buyout I think that would likely propel the stock to the price of the buyout. I don't think it would cause a short squeeze. The price would likely rise to or right below the buyout price. While that will hopefully provide us with some nice appreciation that would happen irrespective of whether there were shorts present or not.
Maybe it will but I've been hearing about the coming short squeeze on this board for over 5 years now and its never happened.
As a butcher of the English language, a serial mistyper and the King of forgetting to proof read my posts or emails I will ignore your typos, misspellings and whatever..... Everything else seemed like "stuff on the wall"'designed to establish you as being coherent on ariad's science.
Good luck with the peanut gallery.
Why who tweeted
I reasonable point of view expressed in a mature tone even after being referred to as sparky.
I rarely post so your statement is patently false.
Generally to have a successful company you have both a product (s)and a successful management team. I don't think anyone is making the argument that the two are mutually exclusive. People can view Denner as having saved the company due to its poor management without disavowing brig.
I for one Jbog think your ariad posts are balanced and thoughtful. Your posts about ariad have been well informed. Glad to read them.
I have not speculated in any shape or form as to what the price of ariad would be on brig approval so I'm uncertain why you are replying to my message telling me to add anything up.
Really 2da your name calling is just getting old. It's not productive and is antagonistic. You can make a point in a civil manner without belittling everyone.
I disagree.Denner cut Harvey who was not concerned with profitability but his legacy. At this point we don't need Denner. Anyone can sell this company. But if it's not sold then the cost reducing efforts that have been implemented under Denner's regime have been critical to Ariad's survival. You mistake me for someone who cares about how I get my return on my invested capital. I sold starting at 10 until 14 and bought again on the dip to 9. I then again started selling on its way up to 14. I now own about 60% of what I did at 10. Maybe I'll miss out on the big win but I'm done holding out for the ariad lottery. Absent modifications to take advantage of tax planning I'll have no shares left if it ever reaches 22.
It's seems you care more about being "right" than making money. I just want profits. I'll continue to sell every dollar increment. My only consideration right now is timing of tax consequences. I have no shares left to sell in my retirement account so every time I sell now there are tax consequences.
I don't know your strategy. You seem to hate the company's management and the industry's prospects so i don't know what you are looking for. I've been selling and taking the bird in hand. Maybe you should too. That is the desired end game, no? Profit.
Exactly! If Denner understands that "we must sell today" because the biotech industry is going to become vastly less profitable due to changes in the industry then so does the Pharma companies looking to buy ariad.
Let's hope!
Why do you think we will go up as a result of the election. Currently the republicans controls both the house and the senate and the democrats control the white house. Conventional wisdom right now says that Hilary will beat trump and the Dems will keep the white house. There is debate about who will win the senate, but at the very least the dems will probably pick up seats. The republican's are almost assured to keep the house but the dems may pick up seats. So given that Hilary and Bernie are on the war path about prescription drug pricing and Hilary will likely win the white house and the republicans best hope is to maintain both the congress and the senate but will likely lose seats, why would this possibly translate to ARIAD gains after the election. Maybe we will see gains, but why would they be correlated with the political outcome?
You do see its says investigation not lawsuit right.
You are absolutely 100% correct. There is no law suit that was filed against ariad. They have started an "investigation" which I believe you have correctly summarized as a desperate attempt to find a lead plaintiff for what seems to be quite frivolous of a veiled suit.
Unfortunately sometimes individuals are careless with their words. In some instances they are intentionally misleading. Thanks for posting the clarification for those who may not have read carefully what the announcement actually said.
Brilliant. What u missed was the 2 billion dollars sales estimate. Assuming you think this analyst is competent enough to determine which drug, pona or brig, would do more in sales, then you can assume she is competent enough to reasonably estimate the amount of those sales. If so, then her estimate of nearly 2 billion in annual revenue would support that we are worth a lot more than our current market cap today. If not, then you shouldn't be using her predictions as the basis to support your positions.
Yea I think we probably are both on the same page. Irrespective of what drug produces the revenue, 2 billion in revenue would be a good thing for us.
No I think the point is that some analyst thinks Pona will do peak sales of 1.1 billion in 2019. That alone is worth our current market cap. This analyst also raised her peak sales of Briga. This is all great news. If one accepts this analysts predictions then I get the point, there are better days to come. Anyone who thinks these analysts estimates are credible, and certainly those who are going to reference in their posts them should understand that these types of sales estimates would be fabulous news.
Doesn't look like Denner unloaded any Ariad stock as there have been no forms filed showing dispositions. Given the previous statements that it was his fiduciary responsibility to do so, do you think we will see unloading to come, or do you think he has breached his fiduciary responsibility?
Saying this is bad is the epitome of not being able to see the forest through the trees. In this update an analyst is forecasting close to 2 billion dollars a year in peak sales (based on only 2 of its drugs)for ariad which is currently valued at or slightly below 2 billion dollars. The analyst also puts a price target of 15 on it while we are currently priced at sub 9. If this is bad news, as an ariad investor, I'll take this kind of bad news everyday.
If only we could get a senator to retweet this article!
Or bear
Different types of pain. Both are not fun to Bare
Well at least we agree on this. We need to stick to our guns. Our pricing is consistent with an orphan drug in the space. Our drug is highly highly effective and is a life line for those with the T315i mutation. Until our label allows us to market to other lines the price is appropriate in the context of the industry. Say what one will about the drugs safety profile if you have the t315i mutation it's a miracle life line.
Should enough data be analyzed to safely move it to the second line then a price reduction would be appropriate.
I think there is some merit in criticizing the drug industry and its pricing. However I'm still befuddled why one would target an unprofitable biotech that has a drug that is saving peoples lives. If a company can't recoup their costs they would not develop orphan drugs. Maybe Bernie should investigate why it costs so much to develop drugs. If we could being that price down then selling prices could be decreased. Deny a company the ability to recoup their cost means they won't be in business. This isn't Pfizer and we aren't making billions on pills that help get an erection
No a price decease would not be the right move right now. Also if they ever move to second line they will have to reduce price not increase it.
This response has nothing to do with my post
There would have definitely been one tangible benefit to raising the price all at once back in 2014. BS didn't have the star power back then that he has now and this would have flown under the radar is common practice. Hindsight is 20/20.
I sold some on the run up but bought some on the run down. I'll find out if that was a good decision or not ( the selling certainly was not sure about the buying). I wish we would just sell this thing
Wait are you implying that we should have gone it alone in Europe and Asia. If we could have sold earlier at the right price that would have been the right move but to continue to maintain/develop a sale force in these regions for such small revenue stream didn't seem prudent to me. Top line revenue will be impacted buy it was the right move from a bottom line perspective.