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Its A new Ballgame. Because of the premium paid on recent acquisitions by Big Pharma of Biotech there is now about a 10% premium on Biotech stocks that are considered possible takeover candidates like ARIA. I have other Biotechs that have been talked about for about 100 years as potential takeover candidates that have also recently gone bananas. This time I think its for real. We keep hearing every year that each year this is the one where Big Pharma takes out a lot of biotechs but it really never seems to happen on any substantial level. THIS IS THE YEAR. You can see by the tremendous premiums being paid for Biotech companies that Big Pharma has lost patience with its snail like progress and is stepping up its game big time. Because of that whereas I once thought if there was a deal for ARIA it would be around 20 I now think if it was to happen soon it would be around 30.
THIS IS THE YEAR TO OWN BIOTECH
ARIA will be up on the day. I was most impressed in the presentation today when the doctor, investigator said that in 6 months he expected all the results to get better by at least another 15 percent and possibly more. The stock can't miss for a while.
ARIA is finished going down, Based on what I see this morning I think this decline is pretty much over.
ARIA IS ALREADY WRITING THE NDA FOR PONATINIB.
I was at the presentation ARIA gave in NY at the Newsmakers conference on Friday. The real news for me came at the ARIA breakout session after the presentation. I was very surprised ( along with many others in that packed room ) when Berger said that ARIA is engaged in writing the NDA for Ponatinib as we speak. He had a follow up to that statement as people were really surprised and he repeated it. He said the work on the NDA had already started so as to expedite the filing. His level of confidence was through the roof.
Todays " Seeking Alpha " report on ARIA is the first one{ of many to come } that really discusses the new compound.
good article on Seeking Alpha today on ARIA. Its actually intelligently done which is a miracle.
Very often on a trading basis for a small part of my holdings I will sell a gap with the idea of buying it back at a lower price. This morning after seeing the ARIA news I thought this stock could open at around 10.25. But I decided that this news is so spectacular I didn't want to take the chance of losing even a little of my stock. I figured even in this nervous market environment this stock is at some point soon headed much higher. I believe this news takes most of the risk out of the stock and when common sense prevails ARIA will be very special.
ARIA with those results just totally knocked the cover off the ball.
I have a feeling that now PONA will be talked about in first line treatment for CML.
those results are spectacular.
I have to say that Berger sounded about as confident as I've ever heard him on the presentation today. He mentioned the presentation of Pona data in Portugal about 5 times. Unless he's senile I have to assume its going to be very impressive. Also his talk about 113 and its potential was scary good.
ARIA is building a base for another move up. It will probably come around the time of the Portugal presentation later this month. Right now you have two computers trading with each other for pennies.
I've been thinking about this hire from MRK for ARIA. A lightbulb went off in my brain. I think MRK suggested to ARIA this hire. ARIA would never want to piss MRK off and hire a valued employee from them right under their nose. MRK suggested it because MRK really wants everything to go well in the PONA launch because somewhere down the road MRK will own ARIA.
The way its trading today I would have to think there is some news coming next week.
Based on all the excitement about PFEs ALK inhibiter for lung cancer ( on every national news show tonight ) I have a feeling that ARIAs 113 might be their biggest drug over time and nobody is even putting that in their models when they list their price goal for the stock.
Very positive results. At the last call Becker highlighted The Portugal conference in Sept. when ARIA will be presenting some new and additional results on PONA. In my experience CEOs never talk about upcoming presentations unless their very positive.
I'm looking forward to Sept when additional PONA results are presented.
The market which is currently down 400 points will windup up on the day.
ARIA stock will be very strong in Sept. Before the conference in Portugal where they will be presenting new PONA data which will be very strong.
Couldn't have said it better myself. Trying to time the market is basically a zero sum game. Biotech has its own rythmns. It thrives on news flow and the news flow here should be very positive. I find when you have a monster stock thats moving (ARIA) it generally always go beyond where you think their going. Eventually it will go beyond what is sane and reasonable but we are not there yet.
listen to the PONA part of the presentation today. They really said that.
If you listened to the PONA part of the call today you might have heard that enrollment had gone so quickly that instead of waiting for ASH in Dec. to release PONA data they will in early fall release new PONA data. They seem terrifcally confident about how that data will be. IMO after that data is released they will raise money, hopefully at higher prices.
I thought the PONA presentation was pretty spectacular. I learned some new things. I advise everyone on this board to listen to the PONA part. I am more convinced then ever we have a long way to go in this stock.
I wasn't asked to participate in that survey but I have considerably more then 200,000 shares. So I suspect this board probably represents more then 5% of the outstanding.
Thanks. I appreciate your answer. Your obviously a very bright guy with a lot of stock market experience. I share your frustration about the SEC and short sellers. In fact, wasn't the SEC supposed to change the rule back to where it used to be, where you could only short stocks on an uptick. I'm still waiting for that one.
You do bring up an interesting point that I never considered. What if PONA imploded. I think the odds of that are very low but in the world of sports nothing is ever 100% sure. In fact. I now think that is the only thing that could derail my perfect 6 month bullish sceneario ( other than an overall market disaster )
I always stay heavily invested because I have very little faith in my ability to figure out which way the stock market is going to go over the next 6 months.
Besides short sellers could short any stock ( irrespective of which way the overall market goes) so why are 12 million shares betting against ARIA. I want to know what their rational for that might be because maybe I'm missing something.
By the way, This is a serious inquiry. I am very impressed by the quality of the people on this board. I take very large positions and although ARIA is my largest position by far ( mutual fund size ) I am actually considering more. Before I do that I would like to hear the reasoning of someone not so enamored of this stock before i throw the rest of my kids potential inheritance into this one.
I always try to weigh what the negatives and the positives of a next 6 month period are in a stock I'm invested in so I can make a risk, reward assessment. Lets look at likely events over the next 6 months in ARIA.
MRK files an NDA for RIDA. ( whatever you think about the results today MRK will be filing an NDA for RIDA sometime in the next 6 months )
ARIA announces the start of a phase 1 trial in 113. ( there will be a lot of speculation about the power of ALK inhibiters and most of it will be good ).
PONA will have interim results on PONA by the end of the year and the talk about that upcoming event will more then likely be very positive.
So that gets me to my next question There are 12 million shares short in ARIA. Why, and what am I missing. I really could use some serious answers because I want to figure out what the shortsellers see that I don't.
When you step back and look at ARIA rationally there is just too much going on here to keep this stock down for long. Between RIDA, PONA and 113 there will be enormous news flow over the next 6 months and thats what Biotech stocks thrive on.
I'm starting to believe that the ARIA ALk drug might be the biggest drug of them all based on PFE results with their ALK drug.
If ARIA stock opens anywhere near its Friday closing it must be bought. This company has multiple very large shots on goal. Its seriously undervalued.
So you think that if the data is the same as the abstract data we've seen already the stock goes down. How many times does a stock go down on the same data it went down on before. I don't think so. If it went down on that it would be a very short term event, like about an hour. My point was I think its a good trade at these levels because the downside from the same data is already baked into the stock whereas better OS data is not and there would be a significant upside. I always like trades where the odds are in your favor due to the previous action of the stock.
Its fine if the stock stays around here through Friday. Because look at how the sceneario plays out after ASCO results released. If the RIDA results remain the same as the abstract everyone looks at each other and basically says thats why the stock was a dog before ASCO and its a non event as the stock doesn't go down anymore because it acted lousey in anticipation of nothing special. Its a hohum. But if there is some improvement in the OS watch out on the upside. So the stock at these prices has limited downside and lots of upside.
I think if the OS improves even slightly the stock moves up big time even though basically its totally irrelevant for approval because on the basis of what we've seen on RIDA till now we will surely be approved. This is because there are a lot of people concerned about the OS ( just look at this board )so there will be nobody to continue nagging about the OS which will then leave all the talk to be about PONA which is a good place to be.
One thing you should get out of your head. Approval of Rida is based on PFS totally and not OS. Based on what we have seen thus far (including the abstract) is that based on those numbers approval is a slam dunk.
Exactly. No matter what else you think of Harvey, he is nobodies fool. If he wasn't expecting good news to take this stock higher he would have raised money already. You can bank on it.
I must say lately everything you post is right on. As I said earlier today thats the best biotech earning call I've ever heard and believe me I've heard more then a few.
I have been doing Biotech for many years and generally very successfully but I have never heard a better call than the ARIA earning call today.
You and I are definitely on the same page. A bad macro market can only hold this back very temporarily.
At this point the upside is virtually unlimited.
ARIA stock is about to be a total monster.