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The Motley Fool (correctly named) post is nothing less an inadvertent confession of incompetence.
jq - One of the few good windows into the Chinese economy has recently closed a bit - Michael Pettis who has been blogging for some time from inside of China has recently altered the amount of content in his blog. Shenyn Wnguo Securities has recently bought primary access to it. It's still worth a look even just to go back a few months to see the unusual depth and insight that can be had in such an opaque market at - mpettis.com
Dough - You guys have misunderstood the changes to the ClinicalTrials format - For a more accurate view, you might check out lockittome's notes on this on Yahoo.
Sorry, but you are just wrong about both. Unfortunately I lack the patience to explain it to you.
Tolerating ambiguity during difficult times is not always easy particularly when there are so many shouts of "the sky is falling."
BTH - You confuse a short, temporary, directional correlation with having a similar causal source of origin. The "quant" is your causal connection. The temporary similar tracking is unrelated and rather dissimilar when you look at it carefully. Concluding that they arise from any similar source is beyond speculation.
EXEL and ARIADs movement may track temporarily in a general direction but that doesn't establish any kind of relationship and certainly nothing to infer some big bogeyman "quant" at work.
This beautiful pig is just doing a few barrel rolls in the blue sky to entertain us before ASH.
BTH - The relationship between EXEL and ARIA that you have perceived does not exist.
lax20m - Not only does this pig fly, she does barrel rolls for the fun of it. It's just a great time to be long Ariad
BTH - If a formal bid for Ariad comes from any source at $15, it would only serve to put Ariad in play at this time. The offer would not be accepted.
All of a sudden there would be a great deal of calculating going on that would surely move the pps and offers into at least the 20's.
BTH - This pig beautiful just the way she is. She's up 83% in a year.
She's that 4th little piggy who oinked all the way to the bank and made so much money she couldn't spend it all.
You just gotta love this pig.
rjf - The trade was at 4.03.
If you go to NASDAQ site, you can bring up all the trades for the day. I am sure you will find one for $2.5million in the last minute - it also had a few additional thousands of shares attached to it. I saw the trade cross on my platform.
Love this pig.
Let's hope you are right. For the price to be this much over the offering on such a large block, there certainly isn't any known impending bad news in the wings. SO you may well be right. I always try to settle for the simplest answer - that the $2.5 million share block that I saw cross was the over allotment.
I just love this pig oinking all the way to the bank.
rjf - I believe that what you just saw was the sale of the over allotment of $2.5 million shares going off at a significantly marked up price. Love this pig.
You gotta love this pig!
gdolla - Sure AMRN is holding a solid gain but then again they had solid news. Perhaps AMRN is a sign of things to come if SUCCEED comes in the same way.
2da - I'm just kidding a bit with you with questions like that - I know you're just doing your best to keep the commentary real. You don't have give me the disclaimers - I won't report anyone to the SEC except maybe.... (just kidding again).
The 4500 Jan22 call buy @ .40 was just reduced to 4000 + 500@.45 for a total of 4500 Jan 22 calls.
gdolla- The whole market dropped 1% in the 15 minutes that Ariad also dropped. Biotech and drug stocks were down down side leaders in the drop . Ariad was just swept along by the down draft by its presence in the various indexes along with a little day trading profit taking.
Call buying picking up --- 500 Jan 22 calls bot @ .45
4500 Jan 22 calls bot @ .40
Total 5000 Jan 22 calls before 10am
2da - Hmmm! Do you have anything factual to go with your projection now that you have gotten it so very right?
AU - No, the world isn't flat.
There is a confluence of positive news about Ariad that has been released and that is about to be released. Nothing tricky here - just a significantly undervalued stock that is developing a higher profile within the institutional and investing community. And, a bit of day trading.
Vid - Your take on Rida's outcome may be a little pessimistic. There is enough proof of concept data with both sarcoma and the recent endometrial results for a bit more optimism at this time. I tend to agree more with a number of others on this board that the odds are more like 60% in favor if not better. Happy Thanksgiving
Don - Nice point to return to.
lllverson - This time I think you are truly prescient.
BTH - Although I accept the meaning as defined, there is a more important point to be made about the way you use the word than just the definition. The exchange between you and me is not about a definition, it is about the intent when the word is used.
You are not using the word dilution just in the way it is defined. You are using it as if it has a derisive and negative connotation. You give it a pejorative twist and it is your pejorative twist that I have been addressing.
The bottom line is that Ariad has not been damaged by the secondaries as you imply, Ariad has benefited from the secondaries and so have the shareholders. HB did well to issue the last one; and, you have yet to come up with any alternative. Complaining or criticizing HB for the secondaries when you don't have an alternative is rather pointless isn't it?
BTH - You have not made a point. First, you tried exaggerating my point and then you attacked your own exaggeration. Now you are trying to argue by some claim to a greater authority mixed with condescending ridicule "any portfolio manager or trader or anyone who knows the most basic principles will simply dismiss you definition".
With that vacuous arguementyou have not made a point nor answered my argument. Calling my argument entirely wrong is just failure on your part. Why don't you ask someone like Bill Gross or Mohamed Abdulla El-Erian at PIMCO? I'll be happy to accept the opinion or analysis of either one.
By the way, you failure to have a meaningful answer to the need for the secondaries that Ariad has issued leaves you without standing to argue further. Without the secondaries, Ariad probably wouldn't exist in a meaningful corporate form at this point. I guess that would be an okay situation for you.
BTH - You are comparing apples and oranges Ariad is not CTIC. I am only referring to Ariad although the principle can be applied with other biotechs. That is not the same as saying it is valid for all biotechs all the time. You exaggerating my point and then attacking your own exaggeration - not nice (have you ever been in politics?).
Your attacks on Ariad management lack both aim and substance. Hope you're not running out of ammunition this early. If so, it's going to be a long year for you
BTH - I've already addressed this once for you, but, I'll give it another try.
Your characterization of Ariad's secondary offerings as dilutions is misleading. Secondary offerings are only dilutions if there is no equivalnet value gained for the shares that were sold. If you look at the increase in the pps over the time in Ariad, it is plain to see that the market sees the value derived from those secondary offerings. By issuing the secondaries, Ariad was able to bring its drugs to greater levels of maturity, thereby, increasing the value of the company and increasing shareholder value.
Secondary offerings in biotech stocks buy time for drugs to be brought to maturity - they are an essential aspect of modern biotech financing. The alternative for HB was to prematurely partner away ownership of a powerful new drug - 534. So, if the secondary allows Ariad to reach important milestones with the drugs in the pipeline faster than could be achieved by not issuing the stock while also retaining more value for shareholders than could be done with partnering than it looks like the right move. HB's choice to issue a secondary was the wiser choice.
No matter how often you shout dilution BTH, it doesn't make it more informative. It certainly doesn't give it any validity. By the way, BTH, you have never indicated any real alternative to the secondary offerings.
doug - Wonderful stuff.
BTH - I hope you're not shorting this dull looking stock - I wouldn't want to see you get hurt.
rjf - I went on to Ameritrade to see what you were looking at and sure enough the spikes that you are talking about are there. However, if you set the chart for 5 days and look below the volume spikes you are located that you wanted me to look at - you can see that the RSI has risen siginificantly over the last 3 days. The buying is there and it has been consistent over the last 3 days.It's just not in blocks like the selling
BTH - Both the trades you mention are there but you haven't described the first half hours trades correctly nor the general flow of buying over the last 3 days.
Just look at the charts for the last three days by the minute - I know you can see what I see even though we're usually not on the same page.
The pps has moved up about five percent over the last 3 days - that takes a sustained bid.
rjf - The spikes on the last 3 days look mostly like buys to me - that is the price moves up on volume, tails off and drifts lower on lower volume. For example, pps spiked on volume from 9:30am to 10:45am this morning; the day before, 11/19/2010 the pattern was the same from 1:00pm to 2:10pm.
rjfs - Are you sure that you are looking are the buy/sell volume for
11/18/10, 11/19/10 and today? I see something quite different.
BTH - When you listen to HB, you are listening to the founder of the company who has been able to cultivate and sustain a brilliant stable of scientists. These scientists are world class and could choose to work anywhere.
These scientists know HB a damn site better then you, and they have stayed with Ariad because of HB's leadership and support.
Perhaps you don't understand who HB is and what HB does. Your own imagings don't count in this matter.
BTH - You are trying to escape from the not so subtle implication of your statements that the lack of a brand name implied a lack of confidence in Rida's success by Merck.
You can end the conversation any time you don't like the outcome but just bear in mind that I am not the only one who read your statements to mean exactly that. Just ask Dew Diligence.
BTH - So what exactly was your point when you wrote-
"Why doesn't Merck even have a brand name for the drug as of yet?
Do they not have enough imminent faith in the drug in sarcoma to even put a marketing name on it yet?"
BTH - And, exactly how do you know that Fidelity was a seller in any quarter before they announced it?
Since you have no facts to back up your speculations about what FMR is actually doing, aren't your comments about FMR selling Ariad just wild speculation on your part that is intended to weaken the public's view of Ariad's value?
BTH - The question you are asking belongs on the MERCK message board not the ARIAD message board.
Ask the question on the MERCK board where it belongs.
DD- I'll second that observation.