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SHORTSHORTSHORTIAM. SHORT IN A QUIET MARKET WITH MACD CROSSING OVER POSITIVELY.
Thanks Jax, I guess I knew that =. Certainly Rogerson kicked our butts in court. I gave this guy Goffman way, way too much credit. Gerber dropped my jaw. All said, I have some serious catch up to play. Like anything else?
Hey Jax, Ive been out licking my wounds lately. Am long more than I care to say, the BK story was, to say the least, a total blow. As I have been traveling for about 3 weeks, I wondered if you had a few minutes to upodate me on the landscape. The co is still cheap IMO but the blend of ownership is a sham. I see you are still long. Whaddyah thinking these days?
Justavoice is not only right in those in chose to give thanks but a true gentleman himself. I have not been able to bring myself to post given the shocking result we saw. Its an injustice. Enough said. I have learned a tremendous amount from others on this board and while the education ended up being rather expensive, nothing good in life is free. I thanks so many of you for your ideas and comaraderie. I wish you all well.
WR
anyone worried about the selling (again not alot for a .50 stock at 600k) should take a look at s+P which has been getting drilled today. Oil is off 5 pct (not a bad thing at all for Chemtura considering it uses petroleum based products) This is a bad market day. Dollar is firming pushing a "risk off" day
Then short it big nuts
Ill buy all you have if you promise to take a hike
i bought 50k today. the delay is bullish. the Bernanke put, financing is MUCH cheaper.
doesnt the debt deal become null today? good thing, they did a lousy job getting the deal done. that is good for us imho
what is high volume on a .50 stock?
there a few guys who bought it below. non believers, just momentum geeks
We took out the 50 day moving average a while ago, We arent far away from the 100 day (.59)
Meanwhile, junk bonds are flying. I hope the POR fails, rates are much lower and spreads on corps have tightened (gotten more expensive)
Issuing the debt was another management blunder. I hope CR has egg on his face.
The reflation trade is on and chemicals will benefit.
Congrats to those hangin in. WR
Just to add perspective, Once the Q letter is assigned to a stock, they are no longer marginable. Wht that means is that the outcome is so unpredictable that a broker/bank will no longer advance their cash against the position. You should think about your position as something akin to a very long odded horse in a race.They do come in every once in a while, so there is reason for hope.
If you continue to trade the Q's consider buyig a basket of stocks rather that any individual name. This is how junk bond portfolios operate. If you have 10 companies and 2 of those recover in price by over 100pct (all things being equal) you will have a successful outcome.
I, like others, bought this name because at least on the onset, the breadth and strategic positioniing of this company made it worth the attempt.
I must say, I am extremely dissapointed in the callous behavior of management. As I read more about the frivolous spending on retreats and management perks, I am somewhat irritated with my due dilligence in this case.
All of the above said, I believe there is a growing concern at the court level of the abusive practices of cram down, wiping out equity has become too easy. There has to be push back or else confidence in equity investing can/will be a casualty. I wish you/others and myself, a win here. But, even more importantly, I hope that the legal system starts to side with the little guy in equity investments. Lord knows, so many have suffered. It is prevalent to speak of moral hazards, government bailouts. It is time to prevent the unintended consequences of discouraging equity investors from providing capital to ensure monetary growth, business expansion and ultimately jobs.
Sorry about the soapbox.. Best, WR
That was awsome, had my whole ofice rockin
I think the terms of UBS deal were predicated on them actually being the investment bank. If the vlaue to shareholders is above 225mm it really has nothing to do with UBS per se. They were the ones selected by SVP/Canyon in the EC led POR. There is alot of potential upsde that really has nothing at all to do with UBS.
>53.5 cent bid
Its beginning to look alot like Christmas
SO forgive my ignorance (im a newbie) whats the sweet spot for equity holders right now?
thanks for the response> Im guessing that is a favorable outcome for us as lumber prices continue to go bid OR has the court decision locked out the upside on that?
Beside the consistent fail to deliver from the shorts, can anyone explain the firming price action? (I am not complaining) just curious
that is a very good plain explanation of capital structure. Well done
I dont think it really matters at all. I was just a long cheering and trying to make others feel god about it as well. This story is down to one event. Everyone knows this.
CEMJQ doing some nice work on the charts. ABove the 50 day moving average. 100 day comes in at .70. 200 day at 1.03
Abwtq. is on the REG SHO list. That manes that shorts who are failing are required to close ou those short positions for failure to deliver within 5 business days. Might give a little bid
the court is finished. We are now waiting on the Gerber decision
baby steps, I like the direction we are heading in the last couple of days. WIth no reports from the court I see the price action as encouraging. It aint over until the fat lady buys CEMJQ
i cant think of any other reason it would be trading right now
Ill keep them coming as I get them. Best i can say
I still think the percentages are off
Getting snipits out of the court room. Gerber so far as suggested this has a good chance of taking longer that the 3 days slotted. Also, he asked how the differences in company value could be rectified. That is Lazard's mark of 2 byn and the EC claim of 2.5byn. It appears this is out there given the bid to the stock
Huge day tomorrow folks! Best of luck, may the truth prevail
In terms of the coursed of events to shareholders. Not only do I feel good about the outcome of the vote from an ethical standpoint, I also think it very much sets the stage for a better outcome to us (you wouldnt know it but we own this company!).
The next important thing to take place will be how Gerber responds to what is in fornt of him. He could push forward the POR of the debtors but he could also radically change the outcome to shareholders on a percentage basis AND he could appreciate our view that the valuations from the debtors are absurd.
The "sealing" of the Skadden objection can be for alot of reasons including things that Rogerson may have said during his roadshow on the new debt and equity like the company might not have had to file in the first place and was a casuality of financing difficulties during the 2008 flushathon.
One interpretation of todays large buying could be that the debtor group is not feeling so strongly about their position right now and are looking to hedge by buying equity, its likely why you see folks such as Interlachen in both securities.
I think we will all look back on today as a big win and I sincerely hope we have enough of this company to choose new directors and send ROgerson packing (without a parachute)
I bought a good chunk more today. If .27 cents is the floor, then I like the optionality. I may even buy more on Monday. Perhaps irrational exhuberance on my part but I just cant see how it gets worse from down here. All of the letters and briefs I saw were logical well thought out arguements without any spiteful comments to the other side. They however have referenced in different ways a take it or leave approach with us. I become increasingly optimistic that Gerber will see this case for what it is.
Have a good weekend all. Big day is Sept 17th?
thanks for the clarity.
So from a tactical perspective why do you do this?
forgive my ignorance, what does that mean
Just a blanket thankyou to all of those of you who generated those fanstastic letters to the court. While I wrote one, I do not share your writing acumen. I do know from the content I read, that alot of time and effort went into those letters. I humbly thank you, Frank
I will vote for that. You think theres a job waiting for him if he is discharged due to what you have referenced? He is bovine and deserves to be treated as such
You are good, very good/
See yesterdays WSJ "Bankruptcy Court Is Latest Battleground for Traders" Talks a bit about predatory practices of debt holders in reorganizations. Gerber is quoted.