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My Trades and Current Positions....
anything bold and/or in color are trades from Thursday
CTRP Apr 19 $57.50C @ .35 - sold 9 of 20 @ $1.35 - almost a 4 bagger!
CTRP Apr 11 $57.50/$60CS @ .40
AAPL Apr 19 $525/$515PS @ .43 - sold 1/3 @ $2.70 Sold another 1/3 @ $3.41(leaves 8)
GOOGL $540/$535PS @.23 CREDIT!!
IBM Apr 19 $185P @ .93
IWM Apr 11 $114/$112PS @ .15 CREDIT - sold @ $1.32 effective sale on play $1.47 with zero cost Infinity Bagger
IWM Apr 19 $112/$111PS @ .324 CREDIT
IWM $111P @ .265
JPM Apr 19 $57.50P @ .205 (10)
JPM Apr 19 $57.50/$55PS @ .045 (5)- created (5) more to avg'd down to .02 now have (10)
LQDT Apr $22.50C @ .243
SPY Apr 11 $184/$183PS @ .015 - sold 2/3 @ .88 - 58+ Bagger!
SPY Apr 11 $184.50P @ .2733 - sold 1/2 @ $1.705 - 6+ Bagger
SPY $183.50P @ .63
SPY Apr 19 $184P @ .51
SPY Apr 19 $180$179PS @ .01 CREDIT!
TSLA Apr 19 $205/$200PS @ .024 CREDIT! sold 1/3 @ $3 - effective sale $3.024 - Infinity Bagger! sold another 1/3 @ $1.11 leaves (8)- sold last (8) @ $1.09 - Infinity Bagger!!
V Apr 19 $205/$200PS @ .14 CREDIT! sold 1/3 @ $2.72 - effective sale $$2.86 - Infinity Bagger! sold another 1/3 @ $2.34 effective sale $2.48 - leaves (5)
VXX Apr 11 $45/$46CS @ .025 CREDIT!
VXX Apr 19 $48/$49CS @ .015
GLD APR 19 $132/$135CS @ .77 CREDIT
GLD APR 19 $132/$137CS @ .115 CREDIT
CALL Jun $17.50C @ $1 (sold 1/3 @ $6.99)
CALL APR 19 $25C @ .20
CALL Apr 19 $25/$30CS @ .28
CALL APR 19 $20C @ .68 - sold 1/2 @ $3.10 - 4.5 Bagger!
CALL Apr 19 $22.50C @ .28 - sold 1/2 @ $1.50 - 5+ Bagger!
CALL Jun $25C @ .69
ZNGA Apr 19 $6C @ .046
ZNGA Jun $7C @ .073
Limited
This is a classic momo reversal. When the momo boys decide to sell who is gonna buy? Value guys? No way, these stocks have 100-5000 PE's. Growth guys? Those are the momo players. In a market like this the momo boys are getting out. They see the market is extremely overbought and toppy. They are rushing to get to the exits. There is no one there at support because they looking for outs. So when there is no bounce off support they all rush to dump at that level, breaking support. And as much as it feels like the market has tanked it is only off 3% from the all time highs!. There is a lot more to go IMO. The only thing that has held this market up is rotation into big cap safer names that dominate the indexes. That will stop as well as most don't want to be in those stodgier names with large %'s of their portfolios. You will see sell-offs across the board (which started today). I could see names like NFLX hitting $250 and probably even $200 in time. TSLA? $175 easy and maybe even $150. PCLN? $1100 if not $1050 or even $1000. I think GOOGL goes down hard too although thier valuation isn't as stretched they are trading at a significantly higher PE than were a year ago. AMZN? Down $90 and I thing it has another $60-$70 more to go.
I wouldn't touch these from the long side as you will probably see dead cat bounces that will be bear traps. I'm in GOOGL Puts and will look for any bounce to jump into PCLN, AMZN NFLX, TSLA Puts, etc
evsa
it ain't over yet....IMO
Current Take on This Market....
Below were my views on the market since mid-March. These were copied and pasted from previous posts....
MARKET COMMENTARY (3-31-14) When I was buying Calls in a falling market (I had Puts until 3-27 and sold them for nice gains and reversed)
I believe we will test the $189-$190 area and then I will be a MAJOR seller. I will jump into lots of Puts. I think this is when we will see a real pullback of 8%-10%. My target is around $172ish
Market Commentary on 4-1-14 (after selling my Calls and reversing that day...)
As I said I would do I have reversed and I'm now Bearish...
We could see a bit more upside (not much higher than $189 IMO) and then I see a big drop over a prolonged period (3-4 weeks) with most of the drop quickly
Where I think we are headed now....
As my feel for the market has been pretty spot on lately I continue to hold to my thesis that has been working for the past month... with one little tweak. I thought we would get a hard hit down and drift lower but I now think we may get a flush to $168-$170 on SPY a little quicker instead of a flush and drift to $172ish. I still expect this by MAY OPEX but it is possible we get it sooner.
MisterZero
Very "PRETTY" day for me!
I'm a man of conviction!
Some might say Stubborn!!
Nah.. not me!!
lol
My Trades and Current Positions....
anything bold and/or in color are trades from Wednesday
CTRP Apr 19 $57.50C @ .35 - sold 9 of 20 @ $1.35 - almost a 4 bagger!
CTRP Apr 11 $57.50/$60CS @ .40
AAPL Apr 19 $525/$515PS @ .43 - sold 1/3 @ $2.70 Sold another 1/3 @ $3.41(leaves 8)
GS $162.50/$155PS @ .105 - sold @ $5.17 - 49+ Bagger!
GOOGL $540P @ .56
IBM Apr 19 $185P @ $1.115
ICPT Apr $340C @ $5 - sold @ $3 - 40% Loss
IWM Apr 11 $114/$112PS @ .15 CREDIT - sold 1/2 @ $1.21 - effective sale $1.36 with zero cost Infinity Bagger
IWM Apr 19 $112/$111PS @ .324 CREDIT
JPM Apr 19 $57.50P @ .205 (15)
JPM Apr 19 $57.50/$55PS @ .045 (5)
LQDT Apr $22.50C @ .243
SPY $184.50P @ .80
SPY Apr 11 $184/$183PS @ .015
SPY Apr 11 $184.50P @ .2733
SPY Apr 19 $184P @ .51
SPY Apr 19 $180$179PS @ .01 CREDIT!
TSLA Apr 19 $205/$200PS @ .024 CREDIT! sold 1/3 @ $3 - effective sale $3.024 - Infinity Bagger! sold another 1/3 @ $1.11 leaves (5)
V Apr 19 $205/$200PS @ .14 CREDIT! sold 1/3 @ $2.72 - effective sale $$2.86 - Infinity Bagger! sold another 1/3 @ $2.34 effective sale $2.48 - leaves (5)
VXX Apr 11 $45/$46CS @ .025 CREDIT!
VXX Apr 19 $48/$49CS @ .015
GLD APR 19 $132/$135CS @ .77 CREDIT
GLD APR 19 $132/$137CS @ .115 CREDIT
CALL Jun $17.50C @ $1 (sold 1/3 @ $6.99)
CALL APR 19 $25C @ .20
CALL Apr 19 $25/$30CS @ .28
CALL APR 19 $20C @ .68 - sold 1/2 @ $3.10 - 4.5 Bagger!
CALL Apr 19 $22.50C @ .28 - sold 1/2 @ $1.50 - 5+ Bagger!
CALL Jun $25C @ .69
ZNGA Apr 19 $6C @ .046
ZNGA Jun $7C @ .073
EVSA
With the action today I don't know but I am still bearish overall and I think we will still be downtrending.
My Trades and Current Positions....
anything bold are trades from today
CTRP Apr 19 $57.50C @ .35 - sold 9 of 20 @ $1.35 - almost a 4 bagger!
CTRP Apr 11 $57.50/$60CS @ .40
AAPL Apr 19 $525/$515PS @ .43 - sold 1/3 @ $2.70 (leaves 16)
GS $162.50/$155PS @ .105
IBM Apr 19 $185P @ $1.115
ICPT Apr $340C @ $5
IWM Apr 11 $114/$112PS @ .15 CREDIT - sold 1/2 @ $1.21 - effective sale $1.36 with zero cost Infinity Bagger
IWM Apr 19 $112/$111PS @ .324 CREDIT
JPM Apr 19 $57.50P @ .205 (15)
JPM Apr 19 $57.50/$55PS @ .045 (5)
LQDT Apr $22.50C @ .243
SPY $184.50P @ .80
SPY Apr 11 $184/$183PS @ .015
SPY Apr 19 $180$179PS @ .01 CREDIT!
TSLA Apr 19 $205/$200PS @ .024 CREDIT! sold 1/3 @ $3 - effective sale $3.024 - Infinity Bagger! leaves (10)
V Apr 19 $205/$200PS @ .14 CREDIT! sold 1/3 @ $2.72 - effective sale $$2.86 - Infinity Bagger! leaves (10)
VXX Apr 11 $45/$46CS @ .025 CREDIT!
VXX Apr 19 $48/$49CS @ .015
GLD APR 19 $132/$135CS @ .77 CREDIT
GLD APR 19 $132/$137CS @ .115 CREDIT
CALL Jun $17.50C @ $1 (sold 1/3 @ $6.99)
CALL APR 19 $25C @ .20
CALL Apr 19 $25/$30CS @ .28
CALL APR 19 $20C @ .68 - sold 1/2 @ $3.10 - 4.5 Bagger!
CALL Apr 19 $22.50C @ .28 - sold 1/2 @ $1.50 - 5+ Bagger!
CALL Jun $25C @ .69
ZNGA Apr 19 $6C @ .046
ZNGA Jun $7C @ .073
UCONN BABY!!!!!!!!!!!!
My Trades and Current Positions....
anything bold is from today I still have some or all of plays listed below
AAPL Apr 19 $525/$515PS @ .43 - sold 1/3 @ $2.70 (leaves 16)
GS Apr 11 $162.50P @ .725 - sold (10) @ $2.53 (5) @ $4.32 and created (5).....
GS $162.50/$155PS @ .105
IBM Apr 19 $185P avg to $1.115
ICPT Apr $340C @ $5
IWM Apr 11 $114/$112PS @ .15 CREDIT - sold 1/2 @ $1.21 - effective sale $1.36 with zero cost Infinity Bagger
IWM Apr 19 $112/$111PS @ .324 CREDIT
JPM Apr 19 $57.50P @ .205 (15)
JPM Apr 19 $57.50/$55PS @ .045 (5)
LQDT Apr $22.50C @ .243
SPY $188/$187PS @ .025 - sold @ .79 - 31.5 Bagger
SPY Apr 11 $184/$183PS @ .015
SPY Apr 19 $180$179PS @ .01 CREDIT!
TSLA Apr 19 $205/$200PS @ .024 CREDIT! sold 1/3 @ $3 - effective sale $3.024 - Infinity Bagger! leaves (10)
V Apr 19 $205/$200PS @ .14 CREDIT! sold 1/3 @ $2.72 - effective sale $$2.86 - Infinity Bagger! leaves (10)
VXX Apr 11 $45/$46CS @ .025 CREDIT!
VXX Apr 19 $48/$49CS @ .015
CALL Jun $17.50C @ $1 (sold 1/3 @ $6.99)
GLD APR 19 $132/$135CS @ .77 CREDIT
GLD APR 19 $132/$137CS @ .115 CREDIT
CALL APR 19 $25C @ .20
CALL Apr 19 $25/$30CS @ .28
CALL APR 19 $20C @ .68 - sold 1/2 @ $3.10 - 4.5 Bagger!
CALL Apr 19 $22.50C @ .28 - sold 1/2 @ $1.50 - 5+ Bagger!
CALL Jun $25C @ .69
SHLD Apr 19 $50C @ $1.22
ZNGA Apr 19 $6C @ .046
ZNGA Jun $7C @ .073
CTRP Apr 19 $57.50C @ .35 - Take-over rumor play...
Below was my thesis on Tuesday...I still feel the same
As I said I would do I have reversed and I'm now Bearish...
We could see a bit more upside (not much higher than $189 IMO) and then I see a big drop over a prolonged period (3-4 weeks) with most of the drop quickly
limited
I was a market maker for 20 years and I used to watch hundreds of stocks at once. Many were not always active but you learn. For the last 10 years on trading professionally I only traded flyers and traded anywhere from 40-100 stocks at once. It isn't always easy but you lean to key on certain things. It's years of practical experience.
Yes. I've made tons on these plays already and have sold the majority of my april calls so i'm golden in them. I sold some Junes as well but I really still like it. Held $20 amid 2 days of market devastation. I've been trying to buy May $22.50/$25 Call Spreads at my price but I haven't been able to buy them
My Trades and Current Positions....
This is a re-post from over the weekend with todays trades in GREEN
What a week - I traded the market Long Friday-Tuesday and killed it and then reversed and really killed it!!
Instead of posting all parts of the trades I will just outline the position, cost and sale px
AAPL Apr 19 $525/$515PS @ .43 - sold 1/3 @ $2.70 (leaves 16)
GOOG Apr 19 $1090C $15.69 - sold 4 at $19.72 avg for a $4.03 profit
GOOG Apr 19 $1090/$1070PS @ .89 - sold (6) at $10.02 - 11.25 Bagger!
GS Apr 11 $162.50P @ .725
IBM Apr 19 $185P @ $1.365
ICPT Apr $340C @ $5
IWM $115WP @.095 - sold @ .36 - almost 4 bagger
IWM Apr 11 $114/$112PS @ .15 CREDIT - sold 1/2 @ $1.21 - effective sale $1.36 with zero cost Infinity Bagger
IWM Apr 19 $112/$111PS @ .324 CREDIT
IBM Apr 19 $185P avg to $1.365
JPM Apr 19 $57.50P @ .205
LQDT Apr $22.50C @ .243
NFLX Apr 19 $340/$335PS @ $.82 CREDIT (15) - sold at $4.03 avg - effective sale px $4.85 - @ Zero cost - Infinity Bagger!!
PCLNApr 19 $1150/$1145PS @ $5.52 CREDIT! Amazing - sold (2 of 4) @ $3.20 - effective sale px $8.82 - infinity bagger - leaves 2 - Sold last 2 @ $8.45 - effective sale $13.97!!
PCLN Apr 19 $1150/$1135PS @ .39 - sold (2 of 6) @ $6.03 - 15.5 Bagger!! Sold last 4 @ $14.65 - 37.5 Bagger!!
SPY $185WP @ .09 - EXPIRED
SPY $186WP @ .15 - Sold @ .18 - 20% gain
SPY $188/$187PS @ .025 - Sold @ .79 - 31.5 Bagger!
SPY $189P @ .18 - sold @ $1.30 - 7+ Bagger!!
SPY Apr 11 $184/$183PS @ .015
SPY Apr 19 $180$179PS @ .01 CREDIT!
TSLA Apr 19 $205/$200PS @ .024 CREDIT! sold 1/3 @ $3 - effective sale $3.024 - Infinity Bagger! leaves (10)
V Apr 19 $205/$200PS @ .14 CREDIT! sold 1/3 @ $2.72 - effective sale $$2.86 - Infinity Bagger! leaves (10)
VXX $42.50WC @ .27 - sold @ .15 - 45% Loss
VXX Apr 11 $45$46CS @ .025 CREDIT!
VXX Apr 19 $48/$49CS @ .015
CALL Jun $17.50C @ $1 (sold 1/3 @ $6.99)
GLD APR 19 $132/$135CS @ .77 CREDIT
GLD APR 19 $132/$137CS @ .115 CREDIT
C Apr 19 $50C @ .273 - sold at .33 - 20% Gain
CALL APR 19 $25C @ .20
CALL Apr 19 $25/$30CS @ .28
CALL APR 19 $20C @ .68 - sold 1/2 @ $3.10 - 4.5 Bagger!
CALL Apr 19 $22.50C @ .28 - sold 1/2 @ $1.50 - 5+ Bagger!
CALL Jun $25C @ .69
SHLD Apr 19 $50C @ $1.22
ZNGA Apr 19 $6C @ .046
ZNGA Jun $7C @ .073
Below was my thesis on Tuesday...I still feel the same
As I said I would do I have reversed and I'm now Bearish...
We could see a bit more upside (not much higher than $189 IMO) and then I see a big drop over a prolonged period (3-4 weeks) with most of the drop quickly
Stutz
All of the above and listening to other professionals opinions.
10 chartists can look at a stock and you could get 10 different opinions. I look at what I see and then I do my homework and see what others opinions are and I see if it matches up with mine.
PowerHour
People that believe in that stuff are destined to be failures. If you believe that you are a Mush then you will be one. You followed JB on some plays but you have to understand how JB and every trader operates. One of JB's winning trades will make up for 20 that he doesn't win on and then some but you have to know what you are getting into if you are gonna follow someone. JB is great but you need to know how he trades and UNDERSTAND THE RISKS. So it didn't work out this time. I know it hurts financially and emotionally but we are resilient and we have the ability to rally. Take a step back do your homework use other peoples ideas and trades as a starting point, an idea, but then do your homework. If you like the idea follow along. If you don't then pass. None of has a crystal ball and we are never sure of the outcome we just use the information at hand to try and predict an outcome based on that info.
Trading is not for everyone but with hard work anyone can make money trading. The good thing about options is you can bat .200 and still be a winner. I would rather find my own plays but I do follow sometimes but I don't jump in blindly. I look at the trade and I do my research. I would rather it cost me a few pennies being in the right trade a little later than jumping in blindly to something that costs me a lot because I didn't do my homework.
My suggestion to you is to step back, regroup, and do some paper trading. Get a feel of the style of trading that you feel comfortable with and then go from there. Follow JB if you like the trades and you will probably hit a home run with him.
steeeve
yes I think it's imminent. and I think this sell-off through Thursday or Friday will take us down to $182ish maybe lower. I then think we will see a down trending market which will take us to $178-$180 by April OPEX with the market eventually testing $172 over a period of time. On individual stocks I picked the Momo stocks as rotation out of the names had started and I've always said that these names were way overdone.
My Trades and Current Positions....
What a week - I traded the market Long Friday-Tuesday and killed it and then reversed and really killed it!!
Instead of posting all parts of the trades I will just outline the position, cost and sale px
Items in black are current open positions. Some items in green have open positions as well as indicated.
AAPL Apr 19 $525/$515PS @ .43 - sold 1/3 @ $2.70 (leaves 16)
GOOG Apr 19 $1090C $15.69 - sold 4 at $19.72 avg for a $4.03 profit
GOOG Apr 19 $1090/$1070PS @ .89 - sold (6) at $10.02 - 11.25 Bagger!
GS Apr 11 $162.50P @ .725
IBM Apr 19 $185P @ $1.365
ICPT Apr $340C @ $5
IWM $115WP @.095 - sold @ .36 - almost 4 bagger
IWM Apr 11 $114/$112PS @ .15 CREDIT
IWM Apr 19 $112/$111PS @ .324 CREDIT
IBM Apr 19 $185P avg to $1.365
JPM Apr 19 $57.50P @ .205
LQDT Apr $22.50C @ .243
NFLX Apr 19 $340/$335PS @ $.82 CREDIT (15) - sold at $4.03 avg - effective sale px $4.85 - @ Zero cost - Infinity Bagger!!
PCLN Apr 19 $1150/$1145PS @ $5.52 CREDIT! Amazing - sold (2 of 4) @ $3.20 - effective sale px $8.82 - infinity bagger - leaves 2
PCLN Apr 19 $1150/$1135PS @ .39 - sold (2 of 6) @ $6.03 - 15.5 Bagger!!
SPY $185WP @ .09 - EXPIRED
SPY $186WP @ .15 - Sold @ .18 - 20% gain
SPY $189P @ .18 - sold @ $1.30 - 7+ Bagger!!
SPY Apr 11 $184/$183PS @ .015
SPY Apr 19 $180$179PS @ .01 CREDIT!
TSLA Apr 19 $205/$200PS @ .024 CREDIT!
V Apr 19 $205/$200PS @ .14 CREDIT!
VXX $42.50WC @ .27 - sold @ .15 - 45% Loss
VXX Apr 11 $45$46CS @ .025 CREDIT!
VXX Apr 19 $48/$49CS @ .015
CALL Jun $17.50C @ $1 (sold 1/3 @ $6.99)
GLD APR 19 $132/$135CS @ .77 CREDIT
GLD APR 19 $132/$137CS @ .115 CREDIT
C Apr 19 $50C @ .273 - sold at .33 - 20% Gain
CALL APR 19 $25C @ .20
CALL Apr 19 $25/$30CS @ .28
CALL APR 19 $20C @ .68 - sold 1/2 @ $3.10 - 4.5 Bagger!
CALL Apr 19 $22.50C @ .28 - sold 1/2 @ $1.50 - 5+ Bagger!
CALL Jun $25C @ .69
SHLD Apr 19 $50C @ $1.22
ZNGA Apr 19 $6C @ .046
ZNGA Jun $7C @ .073
Below was my thesis on Tuesday...I still feel the same
As I said I would do I have reversed and I'm now Bearish...
We could see a bit more upside (not much higher than $189 IMO) and then I see a big drop over a prolonged period (3-4 weeks) with most of the drop quickly
MisterZero
thanks. I post when I can. I am on OM chat and I post all trades there. I also try to telegraph what I do. I will be posting my trades for the week soon.
Mac
I'm VERY bullish on CALL and regarding the market I am a BEAR. I think this market is WAY overbought. I was playing the bounce when the market was tanking Friday and Monday because I am a contrarian and because I thought that they would take the market up to test the highs with a target of $189-$190 on SPY to end the quarter. Qtr end markups usually continue for 1 or 2 days. I got out of my longs yesterday because the market was skittish and I wanted to start jumping into Puts a little ahead of my target. I buy in increments and sell in increments. I think we are headed for a nice pullback here.
New Positions after reversal...
AAPL Apr 19 $525P @ $2.22
GOOG Apr 19 $1090P @ $18.38
GS Apr 11 $162.50P @ .86
IWM $115WP @.20
IWMApr 11 $114P @ .34
IWM Apr 19 $112P @ .34
IBM Apr 19 $185P avg to $1.365
JPM Apr 19 $57.50P @ .29
NFLX Apr 19 $340P @ $4.66
PCLN Apr 19 $1150P @ $6.355
SPY $185WP @ .18
SPY $186WP @ .30
SPY Apr 11 $184P @ .35
SPY Apr 19 $180P @ .24
TSLA Apr 19 $205P @ $3.25
V Apr 19 $205P @ .59
VXX $42.50WC @ .27
VXX Apr 11 $45C @ .36
VXX Apr 19 $48C @ .45
As I said I would do I have reversed and I'm now Bearish...
We could see a bit more upside (not much higher than $189 IMO) and then I see a big drop over a prolonged period (3-4 weeks) with most of the drop quickly
Trades and Open Positions....
Closed Positions...
BIDU $160/$165CS @ .11 - sold @ $1.26 - 11.5 bagger
FB $62.50/$63.50CS @ .196 - sold @ .373 - 90% gain
FB $62.50/$64.50CS @ .065 CREDIT sold @ .47 - effective sale @ .535 with zero cost - Infinity Bagger
GOOG $1155/$1160CS @ .25 Credit - sold @ $1.683 - effective sale @ $1.933 with zero cost - infinity bagger!
ICPT $350C @ $6.66 (4)- sold at $6.75 essentially flat
ICPT $350/$360CS @ $2.425 CREDIT (1)- sold @ $4.60 - effective sale @ $7.025 with zero cost - Infinity Bagger!
IWM $117/$118CS @ .085 sold @ .585 about a 7 bagger!
IWM $117.50/$118CS @ ZERO (0) - sold @ .337 - Infinity Bagger
PCLN $1225/$1250CS @ .235 (2) - sold at $9.55 - 40+ Bagger
SPY $187/$188CS @ .03 CREDIT - sold @ .75 - effective sale .78 with zero Cost - Infinity Bagger
SPY $187.50/$188.50CS @ .02 CREDIT - sold @ .643 - effective sale .663 - Infinity Bagger
SPY $187.50/$188CS @ .18 CREDIT - sold @ .443 - cost .18 CREDIT! -effective sale .623 - Infinity Bagger!
TSLA $225/$235CS @ .296 - sold @ $1.045 - 3.5 Bagger
OPEN
CALL Jun $17.50C @ $1 (sold 1/3 @ $6.99)
GLD APR 19 $132/$135CS @ .77 CREDIT
GLD APR 19 $132/$137CS @ .115 CREDIT
C Apr 19 $50C @ .273
CALL APR 19 $25C @ .20
CALL Apr 19 $25/$30CS @ .28
CALL APR 19 $20C @ .68
CALL Apr 19 $22.50C @ .28
CALL Jun $25C @ .69
SHLD Apr 19 $50C @ $1.22
ZNGA Apr 19 $6C @ .046
ZNGA Jun $7C @ .073
fiancerino
i have these since last week. it is the EOQ and there will be 2-3 days of window dressing. expecting them to try and test $189 or better and then I'm all Puts.
Current Positions and Market View....
All 4-4-14 OPEX unless otherwise specified
I will make spreads of most positions if not already done
BIDU $160C @ .715
C Apr 19 $50C @ .273
CALL APR 19 $25C @ .20
CALL Apr 19 $25/$30CS @ .28 (this is correct Spread px higher than Calls as I had these at higher price)
CALL APR 19 $20C @ .68
CALL Apr 19 $22.50C @ .28
CALL Jun $17.50C @ $1 (sold 1/3 @ $6.99)
CALL Jun $25C @ .69
FB $62.50C @ .686
FB $62.50/$64.50CS @ .065 CREDIT
GOOG $1155C @ $5.24
ICPT $350C @ $6.66 (4)
ICPT $350/$360CS @ $2.425 CREDIT (1)
IWM $117C @ .315
IWM $117.50C @ .22
PCLN $1225/$1250CS @ .235 (2)
SHLD Apr 19 $50C @ $1.225
SPY $187/$188CS @ .03 CREDIT
SPY $187.50/$188.50CS @ .02 CREDIT
SPY $187.50/$188CS @ .18 CREDIT
TSLA $225/$235CS @ .296
GLD APR 19 $132/$135CS @ .77 CREDIT
GLD APR 19 $132/$137CS @ .115 CREDIT
ZNGA Apr 19 $6C @ .046
ZNGA Jun $7C @ .073
MARKET COMMENTARY
I believe we will test the $189-$190 area and then I will be a MAJOR seller. I will jump into lots of Puts. I think this is when we will see a real pullback of 8%-10%. My target is around $172ish
VISH
I was hoping for a test of $189-$190 on SPY. We didn't get it.....
YET. I missed this downside play (although I did have some SPY puts from the previous week that made me a couple of bucks last week). I would LIKE to see it reverse here and test $189-$190 so I could go all in on the short side but the market is very nervous here. I hope it doesn't go below $185 and it rebounds pretty hard to my level. I won't want to have missed a big move to the downside.
AAPL - I think AAPL will trade between $525 and $550 for a while. I am hoping it moves down to that level as I think this stock will be over $600 this year. If the market really tanks hard I could see AAPL testing $500-$505 but I am a longer term bull.
Trades from This Week Only....
Last Friday I sold a bunch of expiring options. Made some money on most.
Also had a bunch of expired options which hurt a bit
Trades from this week.....
ZU Mar $55P - had a 3.25 bagger
VIX $45/$46CS sold @ .487 with zero cost basis
VIX $45.50/$46CS sold @ ..364 with zero cost basis
EEM $38/$37.50PS - sold @ .13 with a zero cost basis
GOOG $1145/$1140PS sold @ .68 with a zero cost basis
and trade of the year....
ICPT $440/$450CS.....
I got long (10) $440C @ $6.20 the stock then gapped up and I was able to sell the $450C against the $440's @ $12.71 avg - creating (10) $440/$450CS's with a cost of a $6.516 CREDIT!!
I then bought back the short puts later @ $13 and scaled out of the long calls as it ripped again at an avg of $29.29 which equates to selling the spread at $16.29. The effective sale price on my (10) spreads was $22.80 with a zero cost basis.
$2280 x 10 spreads = $22,800 in pure profit!
Positions.....
I am currently long the market....
SPY $188C @ .263
VXX $43.50P .30
ICPT Mar $470C @ $15.50 - looking to sell $480 or higher Calls against
GOOG $1220/$1225CS @ .503
PCLN $1365/$1370Cs @ .111 CREDIT
PCLN $1365/$1375CS @ .265
AAPL $545/$550CS @ .034 CREDIT
AAPL %447.50/$550CS @ .10 CREDIT
CALL Mar $15C @ .85
CALL APR $20C @ .68
CALL JUN $17.50C @ $1
CALL JUN $22.50C @ .36
SLV Mar 22 $22C @ .04
TSLA $250C @
GLD APR 19 $132C @ $1.33
HLF Mar $55P @ $1.33
HLF $50P @ $.9625
HLF $45P @ .56
Vish
I showed it to a friend and the only conclusion we came up with is it is a hedge
Vish
First you would need to know if he bought or wrote the straddle. This is a trade you might buy if the IV was currently very low and you expected the IV to rise to pick up premium. You might also do this trade if you have an underlying position and you either are short the stock near those levels or if that is a level where you may want to sell the stock. You usually wouldn't do a straddle so far OTM but who knows. Also it could be a one sided trade. He could have bought one side and sold the other (not likely). This is an unusual trade and I will try to get a better handle on it for you....
King B
The two strategies you mentioned are totally different and have different end games. Your current strategy of selling calls against your leaps is a great strategy to lessen your cost on your leaps. If you do this consistently you can eventually have a credit which is a no lose situation and if your stock gets to the price you think it will get to you will have a major score. For instance, if your leaps for example, cost you $2 and you can sell calls against it each month for .25 - .50 then you will eventually get to a net credit. That is a great strategy as you will be pulling principal out of your trade each month and if you have $10 Calls and it goes to $11 you will still make the same money you would have made on the sale but your cost basis has been lowered. Your one caveat to this play is you can get "Called" out of the stock, meaning if the calls you sold against your Leaps closes above the Strike price of the Calls you sold you will have to sell the shares at that strike. You do have the LEAPS that you sold against them as protection but you then lose your play if you think it goes higher.
Your new strategy involves writing puts which you want to use as a strategy to buy STOCK cheaper. So if your end game is to own the STOCK then your new strategy is a sound one. If the Puts you write close below the strike price you will then get "Put" the stock meaning you will have to buy them at the cost of the strike (less your sale price of the Puts so sold). It is a great strategy if you think the price won't go down so much (to collect the premium) or if you would like to buy the stock at a price near the strike of the Puts you sold.
You have to decide the strategy you want to use. They are both good sound strategies.
King b
I don't have time to answer you now but I will try by this weekend
King B
I cannot tell you how much money to risk. That is a personal decision. I could play as small as $100 and as large as over $10K. I am not your avg trader though. I have traded professionally for over 30 years.
Trades and Positions...
Closed Trades
IWM Mar 7 $116.50/$115.50PS @ .01 CREDIT - sold @ .27 avg - effective sale .28 with zero cost basis
IWM Mar 7 $116P/$115.50PS @ .12 CREDIT - sold @ .233 avg - effective sale .353 with zero cost basis
SPY Mar 7 $185.50/$184.50PS @ .56 CREDIT - sold 1/2 @ .60 - effective sale @ $1.16 with zero cost basis
SPY Mar 7 $185/$184PS @ .485 CREDIT - sold 1/2 @ .51 - effective sale @ .995 with zero cost basis
BIDU Mar 7 $162.50/$160PS @ .09 CREDIT! - sold @ .18 - effective sale .27 with a zero cost basis
EEM Mar 14 $38/$37.50PS @ .05 CREDIT! - sold 1/2 @ .13 - effective sale .18 with zero cost basis
EEM Mar 7 $38.50$38PS @ .09 CREDIT! - sold @ 1/2 @ .24 - effective sale .33 with zero cost basis
TSLA Mar 22 $210/$200PS @ .18 CREDIT! (12) - Sold @ $1.23 - effective sale $1.41 with a zero cost basis
TSLA Mar 22 $210/$205PS @ .20 CREDIT! (4) - Sold @ .61 - effective sale .81 with a zero cost basisGOOG Mar 22 $1145$1140PS @ .32 CREDIT!
LNKD Mar 14 $185P avg to $1.74 - sold @ $1.66 - 4.5% loss
GOOG Mar 7 $1162.50/$1150PS avg to .416 - sold at .225 - 45% loss
Current Open Trades.....
SWHC Mar $13C @ .20 - for ER's
FB Mar 7 $65/$62.50PS @ .10
ZNGA Mar 22 $5.50C @ .08
ZNGA Mar 22 $6C @ .04
CALL Mar 22 $15C @ .85
CALL June $17.50C @ $1
CALL Jun 21 $22.50C @ .48
HLF Mar 22 $45P @ .58
HLF Mar 22 $50P @ .97
IWM Mar 7 $110P @ .13
SPY Mar 7 $179.50P @ .525
TWTR Mar 14 $50P avg to .855
NFLX Mar 7 $412.50P avg to $1.166
EEM Mar 7 $39P @ .35
ZU Mar $55P Avg to .95
Colorful
Yes That is how I would do it. Buy the long Put and then wait til the stock goes down some and then sell the short Put. Remember you want to pick the price of the short Put first though.
nolerman
I have been and continue to be be very bearish. I got my butt kicked last week but hopefully things will go my way and stay my way this week. I will be selling lower strike Puts against some/most of my positions to create Put Spreads. I should get very close to zero cost if trend stays to the downside and I should even be able to get some CREDITS as well if all goes according to plan. It will be very choppy this week and I expect big swings throughout the day with bulls and bears fighting. I will try to take advantage of this by trading around my positions to lower my cost basis on my positions...
Trades and Positions...
Closed Trades
IWM Feb 28 $112P @ .20 - expired
SPY Feb 28 $182P @ .42 - expired
SPY Feb 28 $181P @ .305 - expired
SPY $184P @ .423 - expired
SPY $184.50P @ .343 - sold @ .07 - 80% loss
SPY $185P @ .30 - sold @ .13 - 56% loss
ISRG Feb 28 $430P @ $2.505 - expired
IBM Feb 28 $182.50P @ .64 - expired
AAPL $515/$510PS at an .18 CREDIT! (15)- sold @ .14 for effective sale @ .32 with a zero cost
Current Open Trades.....
ZNGA Mar 22 $5.50C @ .08
ZNGA Mar 22 $6C @ .04
CALL Mar 22 $15C @ .85
CALL June $17.50C @ $1
CALL Jun 21 $22.50C @ .48
HLF Mar 22 $45P @ .58
HLF Mar 22 $50P @ .97
IWM Mar 7 $110P @ .13
IWM Mar 7 $116.50P @ .77
IWM Mar 7 $116P @ .57
SPY Mar 7 $179.50P @ .525
SPY Mar 7 $185.50P @ .79
SPY Mar 7 $185P @ .675
TWTR Mar 14 $50P avg to .855
GOOG Mar 7 $1162.50/$1150PS avg to .416
GOOG Mar 22 $1145P avg to $3.27
LNKD Mar 14 $185P avg to $1.74
NFLX Mar 7 $412.50P avg to $1.166
BIDU Mar 7 $162.50P avg to $1.31
EEM Mar 7 $39P @ .35
EEM Mar 7 $38.50P @ .21
EEM Mar 14 $38P @ .27
TSLA Mar 22 $210/$200PS @ .18 CREDIT! (12) and...
TSLA Mar 22 $210/$205PS @ .20 CREDIT! (4)
FB Mar 7 $65P @ .41
ZU Mar $55P AVG TO $1.40
I TOOK A BEATING THIS WEEK
Current Open Trades.....
ZNGA Mar 22 $5.50C @ .08
ZNGA Mar 22 $6C @ .04
CALL Mar 22 $15C @ .85
CALL June $17.50C @ $1
CALL Jun 21 $22.50C @ .48
HLF Mar 22 $45P @ .58
HLF Mar 22 $50P @ .97
IWM Feb 28 $112P @ .20
IWM Mar 7 $110P @ ..24
SPY Feb 28 $182P @ .42
SPY Feb 28 $181P @ .305
SPY Mar 7 $179.50P @ .525
SPY $184P @ .423
SPY $184.50P @ .45
SPY $185P @ .61
TWTR Mar 14 $50P @ $1.15
ISRG Feb 28 $430P @ $2.505
GOOG Mar 7 $1162.50/$1150PS @ .673
GOOG Mar 22 $1145P @ $4.82
LNKD Mar 14 $185P @ $2.055
NFLX Mar 7 $412.50P @ $3.735
BIDU Mar 7 $162.50P @ $3.275
AAPL Feb 28 $515P @ $1.03 - sold $510P @ $1.21 to create...
AAPL $515/$510PS at an .18 CREDIT! (15)
IBM Feb 28 $182.50P @ .64
TSLA Mar 22 $210P @ $2.00 - sold $200P @ $1.80 (12) and $205P @ $2.20 (4)to create....
TSLA Mar 22 $210/$200PS @ .20 (with a max gain of $10) and...
TSLA Mar 22 $210/$205PS @ .20 CREDIT!
IBM $182.50P @ .64
FB Mar 7 $65P @ .41
ZU Mar $55P @ $2.15
Closed Trades
TSLA Mar 7 $195P @ $2.97- sold at .61
WealthyKing
I do not own shares against my Puts. And I didn't write these Puts. I was the buyer of the Puts not the seller. I also intend to sell them before expiration. I don't play options to exercise them. They are a pure trading vehicle for me. Have I used options to hedge equity positions? No. I don't have equity positions large enough to do that. Do I play options in equities that I own? Yes I have but not as a hedge, just as another trading vehicle.
Current Open Trades.....
ZNGA Mar 22 $5.50C @ .08
ZNGA Mar 22 $6C @ .04
CALL Mar 22 $15C @ .85
CALL June $17.50C @ $1
CALL Jun 21 $22.50C @ .48
HLF Mar 22 $45P @ .58
HLF Mar 22 $50P @ .97
IWM Feb 28 $112P @ .20
IWM Mar 7 $110P @ ..24
SPY Feb 28 $182P @ .42
SPY Feb 28 $181P @ .305
SPY Mar 7 $179.50P @ .525
SPY $184P @ .423
SPY $184.50P @ .45
SPY $185P @ .61
TWTR Mar 14 $50P @ $1.15
ISRG Feb 28 $430P @ $2.505
GOOG Mar 7 $1162.50/$1150PS @ .675
GOOG Mar 22 $1145P @ $4.82
LNKD Mar 14 $185P @ $2.055
NFLX Mar 7 $412.50P @ $3.735
BIDU Mar 7 $162.50P @ $4.125
AAPL Feb 28 $515P @ $1.03
IBM Feb 28 $182.50P @ .64
TSLA Mar 22 $210P @ $2.50
IBM $182.50P @ .64
FB Mar 7 $65P @ .41
Closed Trades
TSLA Mar 7 $195P @ $2.97- sold at .61
I Am A Bear......
We all know that BUT........
first and foremost I AM A TRADER.
So what do I mean by that. I trade both sides of the market, I trade a stock based on what I think it will do more than what I think the market will do. I trade long I trade short. I buy Puts I buy Calls. I buy Spreads I sell Spreads. I trade what I trade for reasons that I will usually outline for you and for reasons I will always outline for my self.
I have been trading for over 30 years and I have seen it all and I can tell you that I am just a little worried sometimes that most of the traders on this board and in OM Chat have never really experienced a Bear market. Most have never even seen a true correction. It has always been BTFD. And for many it has worked quite well.
Why am I worried, yes, because I'm a Bear. And although I jumped in a little early on the Put side (late last week) and I didn't really leave myself much room to avg down today I do feel we have reached that inflection point and we are headed for at least a 10% pullback. I am not worried that some may lose some money (we all do). I am not worried that I may be wrong and lose money. What I am worried about is that many will continue to BTFD and mistake Dead Cat Bounces for true reversals and get wiped out. I am concerned that most don't know how to take advantage of weak markets and not only can't they trade from the short side (Puts) they don't even want to try! They would rather wait for their opportunity to to BTFD than to trade a market that looks like it could drop 200-300 pts in a day or 300-500 points in a week or two. I am concerned that many who are doing well can get destroyed buying dips in bad markets.
You may not agree with my view of the market but what you should all agree with is trying to make yourselves more rounded and BETTER traders. The beauty of options is that Puts and Calls have THE SAME risk/reward. Puts are not unlimited risk tools like being short is. It amazes me that traders have this mindset. And don't get me wrong this is not a condition that is common only to the lay person or non-professional, this is quite common to pros as well. If you're uncomfortable trading Puts do what you did when you first started trading Calls. PAPER TRADE. Get comfortable with them. Learn spreads and how to use them. Learn how credit spreads can make you some money.
I am in the minority when it comes to my views on the market and that's ok. We all have our own opinions. But don't get caught holding the bag. Don't think that the market always goes back up.
There will be a BIG sell-off. It may come now it may come at SPY 200 but it will come. You can take that to the bank. JUST BE PREPARED and learn how to take advantage of ALL markets... Bull, Bear and the worst....Sideways markets.
JMHO!!