"The loop will get modernized with stimulus money"

Like many other's that is a simple statement, but one that does not come anywhere near matching the reality of the situation. First of all, in order to modernize the loop, PSNH will be required to prepare and submit an application to the states Site Evaluation Committee that is just like the one Laidlaw submitted to build the plant. That process took Laidlaw over a year to complete.

Then, the application will go through the site review process. Another 9 months, and possibly as long as 2 years if the application is opposed and appeals drag things out.

Then, there will be final engineering and preparation to build. Perhaps another 6 months.

Finally, there is the 1-2 years of actual construction.

Yes, perhaps the loop will finally get modernized in 4 to 5 years if all goes well. 10 years if there are appeals and delays.

MB
1. LLEG owns nothing having to do with the Berlin plant, but I agree with your statement that they will receive 37.5% of whatever the yet to be written lease pays Laidlaw Berlin Biopower for operating the plant. Let's say that that amounts to $1.5 million annual profit for being the plant operators. LLEG would then clear $562,500 annually.

2. No Assumption involved here. You say you've read the responses, did that include the answer to #27. "The Landvest study did not examine pricing of fuel to the factiliy which would include transportation costs. Applicant expects to conduct a detailed econometric modeling analysis in the fall of 2010 which will include all costs." A complete economic analysis of the cost of fuel has yet to be done.

3. You assert that it's a bold assumption to say that Laidlaw has not had serious discussions regarding financing. Read the answer to #19 "Preliminary discussion have been held with investors and lenders, but no formal applications, requests for proposals have been made, nor have any term sheets, commitment letters or loan documents been generated."

4. You maintain that Laidlaw Berlin Biopower will operate the plant. The answer to question #23 says that the lease has not been written or signed, only that there is an agreement that one will be written "upon completion" of the facility. That is not a guarantee that Laidlaw will ever get one. After all, that wording is a clear corrolary to the agreement Laidlaw had with Waldron and we know how that turned out. Waldron presumed that they would have the contract to do the engineering work, just as Laidlaw presumes that they will have the contract to operate the plant for PJPD.

5. You appear to agree that Laidlaw answers questions about time line differently in two places, but state that the difference of Oct. 2012 and May 2013 is an essential variance. I, however, would argue that it is an example of poor management to include two estimates of time line that are so disparate in an offical answer to a state agency.

6. You highly doubt that Laidlaw has not done financial modeling of the project. I would call your attention to the answer to question #24. "The applicant intends to develop an accurate financial projection with the assistance of an independent engineer in the coming months." To me that says that they have not done financial projections for the project, but intend to do one soon.

From reading the answers provided by Laidlaw in response to the inquiries from the attorney generals office, it is evident that:
1. Laidlaw owns absolutely no part of the Berlin power plant, so all previous claims of company value were unfounded.
2. Laidlaw has not done any economic analysis of the cost of fuel supply.
3. Laidlaw has never had any meaningful discussions with anyone regarding financing the project, despite previous claims to the contrary.
4. Upon completion of construction, Laidlaw will get a lease to operate the plant. (Just like Waldron had an agreement to do the phase 3 work upon completion of 1 & 2)
5. Laidlaws estimate of start of operation (revenue) is either fall of 2012 or the spring of 2013, depending on which answer you read
6. Laidlaw has never done any financial modeling of the economic viability of the plant, but intend to do so soon.

I'm just not sure if this is where I want to invest. Others thoughts?