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I am from Mitch and Murray, and I am on mission of mercy for elderly investors who might lose all their money here. Tough love. They will resent it, like these fellas grown soft and spoiled over the years. American corporate types, gov worker types...friday paychecks regardless of production. Like these biotech managers who dilute and dilute to cover up their own lack of production. They just tap MAC again and again and again. And buy ZERO shares.
Stocks are falling sharply as the fantasy of rate cuts turns into the nightmare of higher rates and inflation.
Here is a reality glimpse: Jay Powell just released FED minutes saying they were gonna keep rates higher for longer into 2026, with a better than even shot at another Rate hike in November. They aim to stop inflation by engineering a soft recession. How is AVXL a little spec micro with no earnings, gonna go up? Money is leaving the system, and equities should get smashed.
The classic definition of a bear market is at least a 20% decline in equities from their highs. The Chief Market Strategist, Tony Dwyer, at Canaccord Genuity noted on CNBC the other day that the average stock on the NYSE is down 29% from its recent highs after last week's rout in the market, which was the worst weekly performance since March for equities. Based on many key charts, the markets feel in reality they are between a correction (10% decline from highs) and a full bear market right now. Transportation stocks usually signal stress in the economy and turn down in front of recessions. It certainly is not looking good on this front, as the SPDR® S&P Transportation ETF (XTN) is down some 17% since the beginning of August, right on the cusp of the official definition of a "bear market."
a stock from 30 to 7
Yep, thanks for acknowledging. You and Curious George are the self appointed Board policemen and commissiors......or as some might say, the Pied Pipers of the Anavex board.
The Pied Piper of Hamelin is an instructive tale for those such who are new owners of Anavex.
It does not end well for the followers of Hamelin.
When you have to sell, - sell, don't talk.
Don't Talk
folks this is just a stock chatboard, don't take it very seriously. I follow Doc238 here but do your own DD. The stock market is dangerous, anybody and everybody should know that, which is why the brokers caution not to put much in any single idea.
Physicist mega genius Brian Cox says we may well be living inside a black hole. You never know so be conservative. We really don't know much.
don't expect any market crash; nobody can predict it. don't think like these nuts here that they can discern the intricacies and mysteries of this phase or that phase or this signal or that biotech sign. They are just fatuous amateur biotech science people, who are gonna get their teeth kicked in. Amateur Charlies. Look around at the society. The stock market must follow the culture, its productivity. These amateur charlies think so elitist, so fain, that they are better than the rest of us, having lived their lives in sheltered industries. They will be crushed over the next several years, and they will not have learned a thing. These Cali Crazies stat science types, a mile wide an inch deep. the market can see them coming. why do you think the XBI is withering? Arrogance and stupidity in science is a common thing.
Please older gents, who are great americans on this board, .....pull in your ambition, your Hubris, such was so fatal to the brilliant Greeks. If you cut your equity ports by half, that is not the end of the world. Remember Falstaff. force yourselves. Across the board. don't let the slimy funds and the u.s degenerate financial industry get over on you with, as KUND says, its loaded slogans and buzzwords and things buried in your minds, to bring you to strict attention, to drown a sleepy emperor
I think we are moving now, finally as the Weimar did in Germany in the early to mid 1920s, from this inflationary period (In Weimar it lasted over 3 years) to the inevitable deflationary period. The people who felt so good on their sugar high, soon learned to hate their world, as things paniced and collapsed and their imaginary or illusory financial accounts and home values, perished....., reminiscent of the French Revolution where things got brutal and violent and murderous..
is the U.S. stock market transitioning now to a deflationary environment? The vast impact of this interest rate climb is in front of our stock market. We may have felt perhaps 1/4 of the cycle impact, so far. Keeping rates at this rate, or a quarter point higher will virtually assure a deflation. Along with a zillion other factors, the mountainous debt like the Titanic Iceberg dead ahead and completely unavoidable. A recession is very definitely coming. do not listen to these brokerages spouting their nonsense to stay invested for the long term, which is drilled into the heads of unfortunate "marks" who are the retail investor. Get Small, Get Smart. Put away the dreams, horde your nest egg. Greed is the worst thing to have and will destroy your stock account, in a bear market. The Wall Street Brokerages will be selling these little 3 and 4 letter vehicles forever and ever. During the 2001 bear market, when the tech stocks lost 75 percent or more of their market valuatoins, ....90 percent of the brokerages had BUY RECS or STRONG BUY RECS on all the stocks. 3% were Sell Recs.
Get Smart. Get Small. -- from your friendly neighborhood Spiderman.
nice chart. but charts are subjective things as predictors. I say turn any chart upside down and give it to a palm reader chartist and you will find he will start doing the palm reading thing, as if nothing is wrong. If any technical indicators were valid, they would be worth more than the market cap of google and apple combined. They are today's version of the alchemists of the 14th,and 15th and 16th centuries....If you wanted to look long term, check the weekly 4 year chart for the biotech index and the rsi. the key and only driver is the fundamentals of a company, in this case anavex, Or the economy. The KGB used to ask our CIA in the sixties, where do you hide your secret, the secret to why your economy is booming, while we ourselves are now on our 19th five year plan (revised every 2 years in their centrally planned commie economy)? Our guys used to laugh. It is spelled honest open non monopoly capitalism and hard work, nobody on the dole. They couldn't understand. Now the wheel has come full circle. Who is the monopolist Oligarchy now?
The next few years will bring the moment, as J.Alfred Prufrock wrote, "to its crisis." guard your money; just try not to lose against inflation, because you are gonna need it.
Doc238 says the odds of AA are 1 in 100. Think about it. Remember Dumb and Dumber, "So you think I have a chance!" Don't be dumb and dumber
A country in a slow motion suicide. A centrally controlled State.
Let us go then,
You and I
when the evening is spread out against the sky,
Like a patient, eitherized upon a table.....
https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poetrymagazine/poems/44212/the-love-song-of-j-alfred-prufrock
how you know in the stock world you are really screwd. Good news does not help you company at all is one way. Looking around to see comparator companies in your sector going right along with you. That is a second way. Sometimes it is both. SAVA is the comparator. It's chart is basically identical to AVXL chart over the past 1 or 2 years. Down, almost straight down. What is worse is that in the last 10 days SAVA has announced 2 pieces of arguably good news, and yet neither boosted the stock. There was no "pop" a term used by biotech investors. It is now at a yearly low like its pal Anavex. So either the SAVA news was not good news, or far more likely, the bloom is coming off the rose in the little micro biotechs that seek to have a drug approved for Alzheimers (and other things). Indeed, the entire biotech sector is providing a similar backdrop. (what horse gamblers refer to as a "trifecta.")
So often The biotech sector as a whole is like a rabbit at a dog track. No earnings with the small ones, all of which have drug candidates which the companies hope will pan out and lead to vast money making machines. In good times these speculative ideas attrack a good deal of loose money in a financialized stock market and economy, with cheap money all over the place. But the biotech sector also has the ability to smell out a coming bear market. They are the heralds, or perhaps in our case, the harbinger of doom.
take home point: Please get small. View with great skepticism the little group of micro message board yappers and theorists and stock detectives who comprise less than 1% of a stock's float. See big picture. Bear markets do not announce themselves. And pretty soon your account is ruined. Get small. my 2 cents. There is a time to be bold but looking at the macro environment, which is obvious and catastrophic, now is the time to follow Faltaff, who faked his own death there on the battlefield, as the killing took place all around him, only to rise later to survive. He said discretion is the better part of valor.
I say that stock markets do not exist in a vacuum. They are tied to their own countries and economies. They cannot stay detached.
So I herald.
https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/2goAAOSw~VZjSQpx/s-l500.jpg
insert-text-here
"I can't lie to you about your chances, but....you have my sympathies."
face the facts, the drug has a dicey or weak or mild signal and that ain't gonna cut it at the BIG PHAMA FDA....they will never approve something in a medium or large indication, which has shifty standards, subjective questionairres, fluid subjective concepts. Not a prayer in hades. Big Pharma owns the layout, and its people own the agency. Get a clue. This is basic math, basic realism. If you want to believe in the government workers, go ahead, keep investing in anavex.
Crazy George and the crazy anavex investors, we love you man.
The anavexers problem solving for the alzheimer community.
As usual Doc238 shows why he is the class of the field. And by a wide measure. Why buy if he is not buying? Why would a retiree even think to almost surely waste his hard earned money?
..........Doc is himself a highly qualified expert, has been a speaker at CNS disease conferences, and generously provides his thoughts.
very unusual to be lucky enough to get thoughts like his on a message board.
you persist in this wrong thought. I was a huge fan of avxl years ago, I did make a killing because things don't grow to the sky (*my first killing), but if a company (or a country) doesn't deliver and proves bad, you should not be a fool and stay with it and cut off your mind to current events. Don't get mad. You begrudge somebody who had the good sense to come in out of the rain. You are no longer singing in it. Gene was a former boxer. Compare him and that civilization to the freaks out there now, the cali crazies.
I used to get personal thankyou emails when I was telling people to sell when the stock was 21, or 19, or 17, but now, all I get is nasty message board comments. Now that the stock is 7. I can tell you one thing, the poster here who says he has put all his friends into the stock to the tune of hundreds of thousands of dollars does not have these friends any longer (presuming they were not imaginary).
a new 2 year low. Check out the 3 month chart. Or the 6th month chart, straight down, or the 1 year chart or 2 year chart, straight down. The price will stay around 7 only if the central banksters liquify the system. With bad stocks it is all about liquidity.
Here is how to live to 100. Walk routinely (*i.e. work) and drink a bottle or so of the finest Mediterrean ultra virgin, cold pressed, single source olive oil, every 2 weeks The 25 dollars a bottle imported, and up stuff. And stick with their Medditerreanean diet. People in Crete most commonly live into their 90s, and they have hundreds living over 100 years of age. They live, in those islands, in southern greece southern italy, on avg about 15 years longer than the dying americans. In some of those areas, it is estimated the people drink over 40 liters of top shelf home grown olive oil PER YEAR. The good stuff. Americans by contrast with their decline age lifes drink less than 1/2 of a pint and many (most?) drink none. The ancient greeks lived well into their 70s, many their 80s in an age where central and northern europeans lived on average 55 years, and the native tribes of america far less than that, even though these peoples were rural/agrarians. There is endless literature, top tier physicians and diet specialists who have assembled the data on olive oil. The peoples there have no dementia, no alzheimers, no mental illness btw, 3 conditions ravaging the goofy americans who drink no olive oil, and they have tiny amounts only of diabetes and cancers, arthritis, etc. Their cardiovascular systems are completely intact until the day they die, virtually no strokes,heart attacks, etc.......it is far more than their lifestyle, as many around the world live in rural communities and die far younger. It is their obsessession with top tier virgin olive oil made in the purest ways to preserve its numerous chemical components. No heat is used in their processes. It is stored pure. They pour it on every food they eat, even when they eat red meat, they douse it with their olive oils....You wanna live to your 95 with a mind virtually completely intact,...that is the way. These ultra preium virgin olive oils are at the very top, in their own catagory btw, of any food pyramid.
not true. Bas will take both sides of the coin, as he positions, which is fine, he is excellent but "endlessly whiny." Find me a single one of my posts since the wild MEME run in anavex ended during the bubble top through June 28, 2021. There are none. It went crazy there for several weeks mid june.. I don't pump. actually I am not a trader but sometimes you gotta take profits, or you live in the movie Groundhog Day.
This meme Month or so when anavex went crazy with the others was pure luck by the way. People were pumping a half dozen stocks like the movie/theater stock AMC up from 10 to 400, and the avxl caught fire. Some of that money was looking for another wild and crazy Story STock, and the money arrived shortly in the alzheimer micro caps. And then it was gone. Poof. In about 2 months.
wanna bet? Anybody who didn't see that ridiculous pop paid the price. SAVA went from 12 to 130. Does that happen in the real world? And I had my whole port in avxl. I am a plunger in the tradition of Jesse Livermore, a great book he wrote by the way, his Confessions of a stock operator. I highly recommend.
I sold the day it opened at 30 and closed around 24 bucks. The whole thing was starting to smell. Kund has been spot on right for the past 2.5 years. Actually he was right before then but the boutique alzheimer's micro caps got caught up in the MEME stock craze there for about 3 months, so we had the irrational bubble rise. He has been right since he started posting on this board. He smelled the delays, broken promises, the never follow throughs, the changed end points, the curious news releases. As has the market, and for those who demand results not words.
You can only go so far with claims of this and that for your 50 billion dollar annual market
you tell the world you will conquor.
It is however the best story in all of BioPharma. You will attract a certain crowd.
Doc238 has to contend with adults who have childlike minds, and then you have this penniless Pumper "curious George" who has no money and posts his Mental Asylum predictions each and every day, ending the posts with a "God Bless" to the Alzheimer's community. While the senior citzens here lose all their pensions week after week, only to hear the guy from the Insane Asylum fully armed with a keyboard tell them "God Bless You."
For entertainment far better than Dirty Harry.
It's a mad mad world.
George has pumped AVXL every day without fail on its descent from $30 to $6.98, and with a hilarious God Bless with every post. Is he the coolest guy or what? And the best thing of all is that he has no money, so he never has losses. Love it!
Anavex is down almost 75% the last two years, retirees have been destroyed and this knucklhead is saying, "why are people concerned about the share price?" What aslyum did they let him out of? An Azzclown on steroids. a perfect anavex investor.
Now there's another bright boy. Exhibit A....as I have said many times, a stock regarding alzheimers or dementia has a tendency to attract the mentals. Mental disease peeps are attracted naturally to mental disease stocks.
well expressed. accurate. You give these gov workers and "Lifers" the corporate types who can never stand on their own two feet in life..........you give them their stock accounts and they will club themselves to the bottom, amidst their lofty opinions of themselves. Especially these stat morons. They will never change. Stupid never does. And will lose all their money but still maintain they are right. Going to the bottom, losing all their money. A mile wide and an inch deep. Fanatics in their own way. Steadily Losing all their money? A meaningless triffle.
In trial law we call them "knuckleheads."
who said, "If we get AA, we are not limited...."
sure thing.
If a frog had wings he would not womp his azz on the rocks every time he jumped.
Do not engage in wish fufillment fantasy baby talk.
"they only learn who suffer." - Aristophanes.
Do not think this little chat board of semi mentals, Cali Crazies, speaks for the stock.. The price action the past 2.5 years does. Pay attention.
terrific post says it all. The market has already made up its mind on the AVXL mangagment and you describe what is really going on. No more duplicitous headlines. No more lying.
Right now, even if the AVXL claimed product could make mentally damaged earthings walk on water and rise in the air, the Market and funds would laugh and never believe. It has shot its load. The market knows the deal. Absent AVXL stealing somebody else's drug and having it work and secretly installing it in the FDA trials it is conducting, the company is shot. It is a shot company.
My idea to take the remaining cash and buy a new compound is the only way to go. Start fresh, fire everybody, get the flying gov monkey "the endlessly on the government dole" employees and their ilk out of the company. Pink slip these gov worker types. Out, out on your azz this instant! No more on the dole Big or Little Pharma or govenrment worker comfy job deals.
Try to sell pencils on the corner, or pens.
Pare down to 3 to 5 people, hire the 30 talent scouts, and buy a couple random shots in the dark and hope for the best. A new business Plan is the only way out. And that too is next to impossible
nobody cares about your AQXP stock, or who killed sally or mary or john in the 1930s. So your point is Avxl has money. OK. But have you followed current events for the past 1 or 3 or 5 years? For this company. AVXL. Not AQXP.
Eat a sheat sandwich stock. Have it crammed down your throat month after month after month. Be an investor. Put your big boy pants on. Lose another 40% of your money and another 2 years of your time. If you don't, you are not a tough guy. Ignore the dicey News Releases, the changing of endpoints, the announced trials that never come into being, the lack of any follow up disclosures, the things that fade into dust, like the media that hopes the events will be forgotten by the stupid public. Ignore all evidence, the lack of follow through, the ambiguous and spun data and the promised but never released information, hoping that people forget the facts and the promises....sure thing Be an investor. LOL. Be a fool, a tool. Be stupid and stubborn. Hold nobody accountable for the obvious. Ignore the hustle Ignore the obvious. Ignore the evidence. LOL....be dogmatic, be a fool. Lose all your money.
Be poor and stupid. That is a good strategy for life.
So true. Great Post. "Super Responders." Who the heck made that word up? Give him a bonus in public relations. Give him a little money. Made up catagories. Buzz Words. Biotech industry hype phrases. Medical industry Jargon. SuperFly. Remember him. Super This and Super That. A "Dream Team" Alzheimer's drug.
A Super Responder Super Fly Patient. Where are these Super Fly Patients now? Missling and AVXL public relations should have called the Super Responders "Super Fly Patients."
Darkest of night
With the moon shining bright
There's a set goin' strong
Lotta things goin' on
The man of the hour
Has an air of great power
The dudes have envied him for so long
Oh, superfly
You're gonna make your fortune by and by
But if you lose, don't ask no questions why
The only game you know is do or die
Anavex looking awful. Broke support at 7.60, and has not even made an attempt to challenge that price at all, not even close. This concept stock looking very bad. There is a lot of evidence proving that when rate raising cycles end, the general markets start going down. This is the historic pattern for the most. WE are very close to halting now the rate raising cycle. Where might AVXL go? I fear the dreaded NEWS RELEASE from Avxl, which is sure to tank the stock 10 percent or more, sometimes much more. Where are the fundamentals? Funds do not want an equivocating, ambiguous baby bio self advertising "Alzheimer's Cure" stock. They know the crazy self made up "classifications" and biomarkers and the proclaimed gains of 3 or 4 percent in some of the people, some of the time. The funds won't buy a dime's worth. They know the deal that is going on.
In several years from now you will look back and think to yourself, why of course it should have been obvious. These knucklheads in DC could not run a cool aide stand and in fact, much of the evidence to date suggests they actually want to cause the destruction of the u.s. economy. How could I have ever thought that wall street prices would not implode eventually with them at the helm? People are running, not walking as far away as they can get from California, their preferred "business model" they seek to export nationwide.
What was I doing being in the stock market?
"Thank you sir, may I have another punch in the kisser?"