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Good example.
Of course it can be appealed but the stock PPS will skyrocket if the damages and royalties come anywhere near $1b. I don't know how we got lost in the weeds on that. Anyone who is thinking it won't is just fooling themselves. I still don't think this gets to a jury though.
Many have speculated that is why they did not push the willful infringement aspect of this. Why set the bar higher than it needs to be when there is probably a 2% chance you will get it. I think the 3.5% on royalties is a better bet. JMO
This is where the judge comes in. He will tell the jury that if at all possible their duty is to reach a verdict. He will provide them with all available tools under the law to do so. Remember this is just based upon a preponderance of the evidence. An attorney friend of mine said the way they describe that in law school is to say that if each side has a plausible argument and you only had a feather that you would place on one side or the other to tip the scale ever so slightly one way which side would it be? My same friend told me he could not think of any civil actions of this type off the top of his head that ended in a mistrial. If you go to Wikipedia and look up Markman Hearing you will see how what is decided from that hearing (judges ruling) usually foreshadows the way a trial is likely to go.
Yes, I think they would turn it down. Google does not have a very good case and they and Vringo know it. We are at the beginning of trial here. First offers in a negotiation are rarely accepted. As news continues to flow from this trial I think you will see what I am talking about. Remember that the results of the Markman are very, very important. This comes down to the language of the claims that the jury will hear. VRNG won most of the Markman ruling. VRNG is not reckless, just doing their job to the best of their ability. They have a lot to lose here too don't forget!
Google will introduce a theory of invalidity...which is where Dr. Lyle Ungar enters. This is the same guy who testified in a case involving a patent dispute, where he said he and the other inventors developed the patent themselves unaided by any support from University of Pennsylvania infrastructure. Turned out this was not true. He was found to have stored data for said patent on university computers, performed computations on advanced networks that he only had access to at UPenn and so on. He actually testified that he had no idea how emails purportedly sent from his email address could have been sent since he did not send them! The Judge, in an opinion, essentially stated that his testimony was not credible and said the email testimony in particular was a low point in the trial. Don't sweat this character, he is obviously a tool who will be discredited.
Can anyone confirm a 2PM conference today to discuss Google's motion for Emergency Sanctions?Please link or post full order-thanks!
No doubt about it. I think this will settle BEFORE trial begins tomorrow. If the judge slams GOOG at 2PM he will also likely really push them to settle. Remember, if this can be settled out of court this benefits the entire system. Google might not like it but they have all but lost. At some point with the current shatstorm of other problems they have showering down on them at the same time you have to pull up stakes and head home.
doubt it...not with $300-400M being added to Google's tab by Friday.
Totally agree...this should reach a new high tomorrow. If Google were smart they would offer a realistic settlement number before the damages expert adds another $400M to the tab. I'm not sure what Google is doing but if they just throw caution to the wind and head to trial they are setting themselves up for a huge black eye to their brand. The press coverage of a trial with billions at stake will be monstrous. They will elevate Vringo's stature to insane levels while exposing theirs to nothing but downside.
Finally...a little mention from the WSJ online. This is like a growing wildfire. About to get very interesting!
http://blogs.wsj.com/financial-adviser/2012/10/09/the-good-leads-481/?mod=yahoo_hs
No dude...whatever it is we MIGHT know it tomorrow but I'm betting we don't. Most likely the parties show up, hand the judge their numbers and then confer with the judge separately. This will take all day. I'm guessing they chew on it and come back the next day and/or day after. My guess is Friday or Monday we get a settlement. Having said that I will be thrilled if we get one tomorrow.
That seems crazy to me. This could settle Wednesday-Friday or Monday next week! I'm not sure I follow that line of thinking. Unsophisticated retail investors may think that but institutions and big players...definitely not!
billions........
Modernist is a tool. There are way too many material issues in dispute which is the underlying basis for a summary judgement (not having those). No way the judge decides that it is appropriate for him to end this case. He will let the jury decide.
I think we'll see much more than a penny. They'll do everything they can to get this thing up. JMO
I checked this very question out with a patent attorney earlier today. He said that a motion to stay could be granted if all of the claims in the case were rejected in a non-final action by the USPTO. Otherwise he said that it was highly unlikely particularly this close to trial. it only takes one claim to be infringed in order for damages to be awarded. He also stated that as a matter of course the USPTO is going to review any plausible PA that may have affected a claim. The presumption of validity still rests with the original patentee. As an aside he said in his experience it was very important for a plaintiff to have the inventor of the patent sitting in the courtroom. He said the average juror is likely to sympathize with an inventor fighting a ten ton gorilla.
My own take on this is that Google does not want to go to trial despite the show otherwise. This will get a lot more interesting as the court decides whether to allow a non-final action by the USPTO to be discussed at trial, a possible stay is ruled upon (though none has even been filed for from what I understand now), and the motion by GOOG to seal the courtroom is decided. Plenty of catalysts coming up. The biggest by far is is this going to trial as scheduled? Right now the answer is yes.
Yup...that is what it says. Sierra would have really boxed "herself" into a corner picking an exact date. At least this way there are 14 days between now and then where she can still be right! I suppose it is pretty logical to think we would see a settlement or buyout between now and then so I give her 50/50 odds of being right. Stay tuned.
So what...this is totally SOP. The get to file a brief in opposition to VRNG's sanctions motion, big deal!
Of course, but that is not the likely thought process in Google's mind. They probably figure that VRNG would take $1-2B and run (which I would). The risk is not just on GOOG's side. If you get enough jurors who think the patent is questionable then you lose. VRNG wants to be able to fight another day on other patents. To come up with a goose egg would be devastating to them not to mention that they would likely have a tougher time raising money the next time around. The smartest play for them is to take a good settlement and claim victory. Despite the chatter on this board I'm guessing that is what they will do. Still maintain that the smartest play for GOOG is to buy VRNG but not sure that will happen...we'll see. I didn't think GOOG would let it get to this hearing today because if they lose its basically over for them...they will have lost what little leverage they had and then you are negotiating with your butt in the air. They need to go 2-0 to continue really. They can't afford to have documents unsealed either.
I wouldn't think one has much to do with the other. They may be concerned but they also know their downside if things get too hot is likely 3-4 billion which is still manageable.
I happen to believe based on formulating what I think is the endgame that a settlement will be reached prior to the hearing next Wednesday. The only thing GOOG has left in the way of optics is the PA. The summary judgement is just show. Unlikely to be ruled on and almost zero chance of being upheld. Invalidating Lang's patent not going to happen. Therefore, back to the PA. If PA is admitted it goes to trial. Frankly, I don't think either side wants a trial because a trial is unpredictable. I think GOOG less so though. Do you risk a big hit to the mother ship, potentially X3 in the hands of a jury just on the theory you think you can confuse them with the Cullisss patent? I for one don't think so. So we are back to the real importance of the PA...Leverage. Do you risk that on the 19th the judge doesn't allow it and your whole case crumbles or do you play up the idea that the judge is likely to allow it (because not allowing it opens the case up to appeal, etc) in order to get the best possible settlement now? That is my bet and it's based entirely on calculus.
If you look at what Wikipedia says about the role of magistrate judges one of those roles is to assist in facilitating settlements. Not saying you are wrong but it can't be dismissed out of hand.
No, the CC was held. Check the Justia docket. Still may have been about a settlement. Just have to wait and see.
Just posted the same thing on another MB. I agree. The idea that they were "hacked" is farfetched. More likely it was taken down out of fear of reprisal or because their source freaked out on them for publishing it when they did (perhaps deal in works but not done). There has been much speculation regarding a buyout or settlement from several online publications the past few weeks. Where there's smoke there is usually fire. It seems prudent for both of them to settle before trial. On a side note it is interesting that Mark Zuckerberg mentioned FB's exploration into search yesterday. That surely peaked Google's spidey senses. We'll see what happens...may be an interesting rest of the week.
This has always been about Vringo. It is COIN's only way out. It is very likely that COIN's fortunes will change drastically in the next 6 weeks. If the VRNG litigation goes as most analysts and observers think it will it will give COIN plenty of money to retire their debt and then some. I feel that a nickel is a real possibility and you never know how high it could spike with exuberant investors caught up in a buying frenzy. When this moves on real VRNG news, it will really move. JMO
semantics...prior art from three patents that were not mentioned by GOOG before.
Thanks for the post Rain. Perhaps a bigger question if we follow the upcoming ruling Judge Jackson (I'll reference him as JJ from here on out) will make on the admissibility of the prior art introduced by Google is lets say he does (and my money is still on that he doesn't) allow them, then what happens? To play it out I would assume VRNG would ask for more time to prepare a response to these patents prior to trial. Given that JJ allowed Google's motion in at the 11th hour I think he would be compelled to give VRNG more time. I'm assuming at that point that VRNG would steer things back to the original 420 filing from 1996 to predate all of the new patents introduced by Google. Do you or does anyone else see this differently? I'm not a lawyer so if there is counsel on this board would love to hear from them. Also, if JJ does allow the patents do we see an initial upheaval in the stock price to the downside and if so how much would you speculate percentage wise? Inventors are reactive as is evidenced by the modernist's ridiculous and nearly fact free article from Saturday. I doubt we would have seen a price drop without that article today.
dude...I am crying with laughter reading your post. That was fantastic! The guy made some good points that most people probably already knew and I'm sure he is a nice guy but holy crap, you are dead on with the atmospherics! Thanks...you made my evening with that post!
The Korean verdict means nothing. I'm just pissed that on every VRNG message board over this weekend people seem to be waxing on the Prior Art subject. I was hoping for a run after the Apple verdict Friday night but I'm doubtful about that now.
You may be right and therefore at least for a day or two the jackazz from SA "retartist" may have succeeded in his mission to blunt any momentum from the Apple verdict. The wildcard is always that VRNG comes out with news of their own or someone else of greater note writes an article before open tomorrow. Who knows.
what is your prediction for tomorrow?
Has anyone examined the patents Google is referencing as Prior Art? I'm not a technical guy and have counted on numerous experts that claim Google's Adwords and Adsense process is pretty much an exact rip-off of Lang's patents. Are these three referenced patents from Google showing the exact process Google uses for Adsense and Adwords, algorithm and all, or are they in fact different and therefore questionable even if the judge does rule they are admissible? Would love to hear anyone's technical opinion of this. Thank you.
When would the judge rule on this? Any idea? Obviously this does not seem like a small item.
It looks like the damages Apple was seeking against Samsung came out just a week before trial. First report I could find was July 24, 2012. If the same plays out here we won't see a damages report until October.
Interesting. The key question is why not bring these patents to light before the Markman Hearing? If they were going to invalidate VRNG's patents you would think they would have brought this up already. In short I would go back to the creation of the invention and algorithm. Lang clearly invented this as a student and well before Google. It is something to think about but I think that VRNG's team is pretty confident in what they have. This plays out like a John Grisham book IMO. Lang wins the day as the jury realizes that they are looking at the little guy inventor of a system that monster Google has ripped off. I just can't see Google letting it go that far but maybe they will.
Yes. I would think that.
Thanks Rain. I missed the fact that he sealed it and it was awaiting his release. Can you speculate as to what is behind that move? Do you think he sees it impeding a settlement?
I'll say, WTF...initially there was thinking that this would be out several weeks ago. Then in the conference call they said sometime before the trial which is purposely vague. One of the SA articles I read this week said Wall Street insiders were predicting it to come out this week. There seems to be no answer that can be banked upon. If anyone has a solid rationale I'd love to hear it. Thx
All that was said on the conference call two days ago was that the reports would be released sometime prior to the trial.