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smooth2o,
Is Intel having problems making Cores, and if so, what might that say for Conroes and Meroms?
http://www.overclockers.com/tips00952/
What would cause a 20% increase in Mobility costs?
My understanding is that the costs are always higher for the latest and greatest products a company produces. Wouldn't the current mobility products share many of the same costs expected in the Conroes and Meroms? Is it possible that it was Intel's choice to apply a percentage of these costs to the latest lineup? That is my guess, but I could be wrong and something bad is happening. Given Intel's optimism, I doubt this.
IMHO
bobs10,
See my previous post.
Constraint due to planning/product mix, as you point out, was a minor issue according to Dirk. He made it clear AMD was not capacity constrained. Beyond this, there is nothing in your previous posts to support the following:
"I wonder how well the P4/Pd would have done if AMD hadn't be severely capacity constrained during most of that period. It's becoming increasing clear that the only thing that kept AMD from huge market gains during the period was a lack of capacity."
You are admitting you heard Dirk say AMD was not capacity constrained and you still believe in what you said above?
I've said before, but here goes again; there at least 2 flavors of capacity constraint.
There is one kind. You are asked to output n+1 items but can only output n. That is constrained.
Not constrained means: AMD was able to output n items, but consumers only asked for n-1
The other kind is the type that keeps OEMs and others from using AMD products because they are unsure once they've committed that AMD will be able to deliver.
You are talking generalities (AMD's ability to be a dependable deliverer of supply) and this sentence is meaningless to the question I raised above. I think you are struggling with the reality of what Dirk said.
IMHO
bobs10,
I wonder how well the P4/Pd would have done if AMD hadn't be severely capacity constrained during most of that period. It's becoming increasing clear that the only thing that kept AMD from huge market gains during the period was a lack of capacity.
What period are you talking about? According to Dirk, AMD was not capacity constrained last quarter.
IMHO
Tenchu,
Found it on Yahoo Rambus thread:
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=4687909&tid=rmbs&sid=468....
I agree with Snow on this. Still looking for a smoking gun? Timed right after a cautious Q2? Reality starting to set in, again? Always searching to blame someone else when things dont go their way? Begging for scraps of evidence? This is AMD at its best.
IMHO
CombJelly,
All of those calculations assume that Intel's P4 chips are sure sales also. They aren't.
The P4, at 90nm and inferior to this years version in most every way, helped Intel hit 9.6 billion in revs in the Q3 of last year. That is what my calculations are based on. You are saying that the 65nm, improved P4, will not "hold its own" this year? LOL.
Fine, so Intel must give them away for free; how is that going to help AMD's ASP's??? The issue is "AMD will do better". You still biting?
IMHO
You actually think Q3 will be better when at that point Intel will have a clear performance advantage with their new generation of chips??"
That account for maybe 5% of their sales? Yes.
You sure about that? Lets say:
AMD sells 11 million CPU's / quarter.
Intel has 9.6 billion in revs in Q3, flat with last year.
ASP for NGA, is what???
So calculate: 5% of 9.6 billion is 480 million /(??? NGA ASP) = ??? million CPU's.
For every Intel CPU bought, that is 1 less for AMD, right?
For $200 ASP, that is 22% fewer AMD CPU's that will not add to the top line. For $300 ASP, that is a 15% drop. Pick a number.
What will this do to the bottom line? Stock price? Sure AMD may sell more than what I have calculated, but there will be huge negative ASP pressure. No matter how you slice it, it will NOT be better.
IMHO
My bad. It just read like a Dukester post...
Please get your targets straight. With apologies to Duke, my comment, about AMD being "nice", was tongue in cheek. I realize I have to try realy hard to get a chuckle out of AMD fans today.
IMHO
wbmw,
They actually made a very good story about inventories. They said they loved being lean, and that they are trying to see how lean they can get.
What you say is true, when applied to units. Inventories are a difficult datapoint to use to prognosticate. There are a number of issues and special cases, as you mentioned, like EOL and ramping up of products. Suffice it to say, given the tone of the CC, the issue is not clear to me, though it could be a non-event.
IMHO
Didn't they say they reduced Opteron pricing in the latter
part of the quarter?
I think they did. Given that this is their "strength" and demand is high, why reduce prices? Their answer, I think, was that they are "nice" to their customers.
IMHO
AMD earning conference impression
Dirk also played down the move to DDR2, saying there is "some" benefit, but it is "not huge", IIRC. I know some AMD fans put this at the top of their list of weopons to fend off Intel. Don't count on it.
Another thing, often argued about on this board and used by the AMD fans in their logic, is the false assumption that AMD was capacity constrained. AMD made it clear, they were NOT capacity constrained. So an analyst asked, why bring up Chartered? AMD tap danced around this a bit and IMO did not give a satisfactory answer.
When analyst tried to pin the 55-60% margins for the next quarter, AMD balked, all the while insisting that going forward analyst should expect it.
Inventories is an area I have questions about. While the value of inventories are down, which usually is positive, they did not mention if units were down respectively. Is it possible they anticipate lower ASP's going forward and valueing the inventory accordingly? Later, they said they want higher inventory, which if my reasoning has any merrit, implies they want higher ASP (obviously). None of the analysts pinned them down on inventory units vs. dollar value. I dont recall a ASP projection for the future quarter.
Mentioned goal of 30% of market (unit? value?) within 3-5 years from now. The way the AMD fans on this board have been posting, this should have happened by now. Dissapointing to someone like Rick Whitington of Caris :)
Subdued, considering their quarter was very, very good. Also whenever an analyst attempted to get AMD to confirm the strong momentum of the past will continue, by asking for specific datapoints, AMD was not willing to "give that level of granularity".
IMHO
Smooth2o,
Obviously, this is in concert with Intel's release of product. Merom will be available in 64 bits for the launch. MS knows where it's bread is buttered.
Maybe AMD is about to add Microsoft to their lawsuit? Sounds like two monopolies colluding, don't it? C'mon AMD, do something! <g>
IMHO
morrowinder,
from your article:
Microsoft is planning six core offerings of the Vista operating system, targeting how people use computers instead of PC hardware specifications.
Three will be aimed at consumers, two at business users, and a stripped-down version for emerging markets. Unlike the current Windows XP, there will be no versions designed specifically for advanced 64-bit computing, multimedia computers or Tablet PCs.
Sounds like 64-bit computing is being de-emphasized. This runs counter to what AMD wants now, and Intel will want later.
IMHO
Wouter Tinus,
I don't like people being right for the wrong reasons. Sure it's cool to support AMD right now, and there are lots of good reasons to do so, but underestimating Intel is foolish as well. Prescott (and arguably Netburst in general) was a mistake, but they are not the morons some people take them for.
You have echoed my beliefs to "T" (whatever that means). Keep up the objectivity. I know I am biased, but at least I admit it.
IMHO
mas,
RE: Writers at the Inquirer- I think your perceptions are just wrong.
Thanks for the links, but if that is the best you can do, then Tecate's perception is right. They are biased. Practically all the links you supplied poke fun of the "people" at Intel and AMD. Human beings can be rather funny and Charlie and the Inq, being human themselves, take note of that. However, when it comes down to Intel and AMD "products", which is the focus of what they publish, there is an obvious slant. It is one thing to believe one product is better than the other, it is still another to constantly ridicule (Itanic anyone???) and bash one side over and over again. You really can't see that?
IMHO
mas,
that ... maybe the point
Got it! She's got a point. What do you think?
IMHO
Tecate,
The date of the article is: 5/18/01
IMHO
Eric Ross
What is telling about this downgrade is that he obviously is not telling the "whole" story. There is no way one can attribute such a reversal on AMD to "near term pricing pressures". He knows what everyone on the Internet chat rooms know. The reason for his drastic cut in AMD is due to Intel's NGA, but does he mention it? (I don't have his report). From what I see on the wires, NO.
IMHO
chipguy,
"My understanding is that it's a Pentium III resurgence, mixed with some of the capability of the Pentium IV." AMD's H. Richard
So he is proud of the fact that a 1990's Intel design is kicking the snot out of AMD's latest and greatest?
IMHO
mas,
From the article quoting Margaret Lewis, director of commercial solutions strategy at AMD.
"Yes Intel has a lot of money and it can cut prices. But the sales force of one of our partners say they had a customer that would not accept its processors [when offered] for free."
Wait a minute! Didn’t AMD complain in their lawsuit that they offered their processors for FREE and the customer would not take them? Supposedly because of Intel influence or some other illegal tactic. From the lawsuit:
"In 2002, AMD alleges, Intel pressured Hewlett-Packard into withdrawing a computer using AMD's chips from a successful product line and from its resellers, though AMD offered to give H-P the first million chips for free."
Does this suggest AMD is doing something illegal? Remeber we are talking FREE Intel processors! Just swap Intel for AMD...
"In 2006, Intel alleges, AMD pressured Hewlett-Packard into withdrawing a computer using Intel's chips from a successful product line and from its resellers, though Intel offered to give H-P the first million chips for free."
OK, listen, no need to respond. The questions are rhetorical and you have already passed judgment on Intel. For the rest of us, it makes you wonder.
IMHO
wbmw,
Funny how you take solace in INTC stock going down, while AMD is sharing in the same fate.
Correction! According to the meticulous chipdesigner
Intel -1.30 %
AMD -2.37 %
He knows that 1.30 is not the same as 2.37. Intel outperformed AMD by a whopping 55%, right chipdesigner?
IMHO
chipdesigner,
Don't you find it the least bit ironic that Great Intel feels the need to mention their smaller competitor by name, and stage a black-box comparison between their next-generation 6-9 month 65nm future part and the competitor's 2-month-old last-revision 90nm part?
Good response. WMBW just answered your original question. Turns out he answered very convincingly, since you tap-dance your way to some other topic.
And, no it is not ironic. Intel was never great. AMD is not a small competitor. It is business. You were winning. Now you are about to lose. Too bad.
IMHO
ChipGeek,
One step at a time.
I completely agree; I still find myself feeling extremely cautious as well...
Well you would not be an Intel shareholder if you felt any other way ;))
Cautious optimism is the best way to describe what is happening. If you look at Intel's stock performance you come to realize that its stock performance and its business performance have diverged. Good business performance, despite some major Intel missteps. One must conclude that these missteps and the perception they caused, was the driving force for the divergence. Hopefully, Intel has taken the proper steps to correct this. The transition is not seamless however.
The analogy that best describes what is happening to Intel stock price at this moment is to visualize AMD with a 2 room apartment it has all decorated and prettied up starting about 3 years ago. By comparison Intel owns a 8 room mansion (rooms==marketshare). Intel is in the midst of a major renovation and wouldn’t you know it, guests (analysts) show up on the doorstep. The house is a mess, with contractors and building material all over the place. Unless you are an analyst that can envision the end result, utter chaos is the probable impression.
Of course, just like in the analogy, the end result, though nice and clean, may not impress everyone. Oh yes, AMD could be adding some new furniture to their apartment or moving into a 3 or 4 room home, as well. We will just have to wait and see what happens.
IMHO
Did I say surprise? :)
Good call. Hope you can continue to surprise us (positively). Have you ever seen an IDF where so much incremental improvement in Intel's products have been demonstrated? Serious question; it seems that way to me.
IMHO
tecate,
Did you see the comment where Otellini (I think) said Intel has a hard time keeping up with RIM's orders?
No I did'nt. Thanks. I am sure, now that RIMM has settled, things can only be more positive.
IMHO
chipdesigner,
No NGA parts until Q4?
Can you post a link to an article with a direct quote from an "Intel" rep? Thanks.
That spells painful Q1, Q2, and Q3 earnings for Intel.
You should know about pain after today's AMD bloodbath. Join the club then.<g>
I must say you disapoint me. I am trying to get in on some inexpensive AMD puts. Time for you to work on some rumors. Dell is so passe. How about another Google rumor?
IMHO
jhalada,
I can read the code
ROTFLMAO. You don't know crap. If you did, AMD stock would be up on the news. Face it. You droids are losing credibility and you are doing a $hitty job propping up AMD stock. I am rather disapointed in you. I am going to have to ask Chipdesigner to fire you.<ggg>
IMHO
mas,
Intel spokesman Howard High said the intent of the technology agreement is to have a single architecture that will replace all others from either company.
"It's a very competitive marketplace," he said. "We like to think that Intel keeps enough things happening on the table to keep all of our competitors worried."
First, how is Howard High's quote supportive of the statement you have highlighted above? It seems that this is the conclusion of the author.
Second, this guy Gwenapp is, like you, reading too much into what was happening back then. For example he says:
"The biggest point of this announcement is the fact that Intel is signalling that the x86 architecture they've been using for so long is running out of steam," said Gwennap. "This is the first time they've admitted that in public."
First he determines that this is all a "signal". Then he goes further and calls it an "admission". Say what? Sure it is a good guess and logical, but that does not make it right.
Somehow, however, it does not surprise me that fans of AMD would see this as conclusive evidence. But do not think for a minute that if the Merced had turned out so great as to take over every segment that Intel would not have been happy or claimed that was not the intent all along.
IMHO
Andy Gravy,
Since AMD is eating intc's lunch why continue to pursue the anti-trust case?
After lunch comes dinner.
No kiddin'. Well just don't hang around "puking" Hector. <g>
IMHO
Intel First-Quarter Revenue Below Expectations
http://biz.yahoo.com/bwml/060303/35182.html?.v=1
"SANTA CLARA, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 3, 2006--Intel Corporation today announced that first-quarter revenue is expected to be between $8.7 billion and $9.1 billion, as compared to the previous expectation of between $9.1 billion and $9.7 billion, primarily due to weaker than expected demand and a slight market segment share loss."
Let's see how much of this is already priced into the stock. Always felt that more analysts need to downgrade the stock before it can reverse. Looks like it is about to happen <g>.
This is also the start of the quite period. This will be a good way to judge on how conservative or aggressive Intel will be with its forecasts going forward.
IMHO
Tenchu,
The key sentence in your quote is actually this, .."If it is, the public needs to know that."
Can it be made any more clearer, by AMD's own lawyers no less, that this lawsuit is nothing more than a high profile, high risk, PR stunt. Of course, as any diehard AMD fan will tell you, there is the hope that AMD will actually find a "smoking gun" somewhere. I doubt they have, given Intel's recognition of its own status in the eyes of the FTC and other government agencies. If AMD had found anything of significance, they would not need to issue subpoena's to Skype and others, almost a year after the accusations. AMD is desperate to find something, and it almost seems as if Intel did this on purpose. Is Intel trying to bate AMD or something? Why would Intel risk this if they knew, given AMD's crying, the subpoena's would follow?
IMHO
chipguy,
whether toilet paper should be
put in the holder to dispense above or below the roll.
It is mildly amusing to behold that in the absence of
of a timely Intel outrage to fume about or purported
slip to gloat over that the 'droids turn to cannibalism.
Thanks, that was funny!
IMHO
pwLitespeed,
the current "tri-core" thread
It's official. "Chipdesigner" just called it a AMD's tri-core problem. You think that any of them would finally realize there is some merit in going to MCP? NO WAY! Maybe some reporter picks up on this "problem" that AMD has and contrasts it to Intel's "elegant" solution. LOL!
IMHO
chipdesigner,
AMD stock has not even priced in the $1.50 to $2.00/sh they're going to earn this year.
Sure. That is because the stock gods have not consulted with you on the matter.
I think a glance at YTD trading of INTC and AMD will clear that one up for you.
With apologies to the sincere AMD investors, I will drop to the childish level of chipdesigner and demonstrate that only a moron would respond to this graph or respond to this message,
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1d&s=AMD&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=intc
IMHO
Uh, maybe because "slower gains" isn't exactly bad news?
Uh, maybe because AMD stock is NOT priced for "slower gains". Doh!
Who's the clown, again?
LOL, very good comeback. Personal attack (and a free pass from Keith - as if I care), always sets the record straight.
You sound a little worried. You should be.<g>
IMHO
cruzbay,
They are going to slow AMD's gains ... Ross
Right. So why has'nt this clown downgraded AMD also? This is a closet Droid, who predicted Dell going to AMD in 2001 and as recently as this past year.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2001/05/15/amd_to_announce_dell_design/
Yep, he knows $hit from shanola <g>
IMHO
VIIV IS STUPID and broken
Oh NO! We're DOOOMED!, DOOOOOMED! I tell ya!
DOOOOOOOOMED!!!
IMHO
spaarky,
Anyway, since you apparently think there is a one-to-one corespondence between one factor and a share's stock price, then you can tell us the one thing responsible for AMD at $4 and change in 2003, right? See how ridiculous this is? I pointed out that Dell grew server revenue faster than it's competitors without selling AMD and you go comparing share prices over an arbitrary one year window. Nice follow-up troll.
Excellent response.
IMHO
Ixse,
This is the first article that I've seen that mentions this.
First do a google on SemIndia and AMD. Read what most authors are implying. I will give you an example here,
Though AMD has originally planned to be only a technology supplier to the facility, its CEO Hector de J Ruiz indicated that it may pick up a stake in Semindia—the company that will implement the project.
you're purposefully placing a single quote out of the proper context
I am not doing no such thing. Be true to yourself.
IMHO
BTW, you can have the last word on this, afterall, this is an AMD board.
Ixse,
I think you should manage your expectations better
Thanks, but my expectations are just fine. I never expected anything real important to come out of it. But that is not what AMD was implying, with the dog and pony news conference and being purposely vague when talking to reporters. I know that the majority of what comes out of AMD's mouth is pure BS. The fact that you don't see it that way, is your problem. Try managing your expectations better and I will do so with mine.
IMHO