Trying to find the balance between being the person my dog thinks I am and the people our parents warned us about.
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From today's perspective, it looks like it is turning the corner.
If I were that store manager, I'd mix it up and throw in some Paul Anka, K-pop, and the Captain and Tennille. Then when the store closes, endlessly play Bobby McFarin's "Don't worry, be happy" until the sore opens. Probably clear the parking lot up in a couple of days.
LOL. I put Google news alerts on for any stocks I own. I get more RAD email news than any other stock - what's on sale, which one got robbed, who stole meds from pharmacy, people caught general shoplifting, etc. The best one was about a store blaring Barry Manilow tunes outside to keep vagrants and beggers away.
ISS joins Glass Lewis against Rite Aid/Albertsons deal
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3375147-iss-joins-glass-lewis-rite-aid-albertsons-deal
Thanks Fung & Pistol. My email came in at 1:56 am today
Have the proxy forms been sent out? I've not seen one thru my account.
Earnings call slide show link. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4188812-general-electric-2018-q2-results-earnings-call-slides?app=1
I also like that book value is about $37.
Even better.
Ja! Sehr gut!
Happy 4th to everyone!
A few more for the list:
Top Institutional Holders
Holder Shares Date Reported % Out Value
Vanguard Group, Inc. (The) 87,936,346 Dec 30, 2017 8.24% 175,872,692
Oppenheimer Funds, Inc. 52,907,179 Dec 30, 2017 4.96% 105,814,358
Highfields Capital Management L.P. 47,010,366 Dec 30, 2017 4.40% 94,020,732
Blackrock Inc. 43,176,636 Dec 30, 2017 4.04% 86,353,272
Franklin Resources, Inc 42,097,200 Dec 30, 2017 3.94% 84,194,400
State Street Corporation 19,015,393 Dec 30, 2017 1.78% 38,030,786
Alberta Investment Managament Corp 16,457,300 Dec 30, 2017 1.54% 32,914,600
APG Asset Management N.V. 14,978,600 Dec 30, 2017 1.40% 29,957,200
Susquehanna International Group, LLP 10,840,485 Dec 30, 2017 1.02% 21,680,970
FMR, LLC 10,590,268 Dec 30, 2017 0.99% 21,180,536
Top Mutual Fund Holders
Holder Shares Date Reported % Out Value
Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund 24,443,661 Jun 29, 2017 2.29% 91,419,292
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund 24,200,769 Jun 29, 2017 2.27% 90,510,876
Oppenheimer Global Opportunities Fund 20,000,000 Sep 29, 2017 1.87% 45,599,999
Vanguard Small Cap Value Index Fund 15,830,373 Jun 29, 2017 1.48% 59,205,595
Franklin Mutual Series Fund-Mutual Global Discovery Fund 13,959,587 Jun 29, 2017 1.31% 52,208,855
Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund 13,301,087 Jun 29, 2017 1.25% 49,746,065
Franklin Mutual Series Fund-Mutual Shares Fund 8,729,840 Jun 29, 2017 0.82% 32,649,601
Franklin Mutual Series Fund-Mutual Beacon Fund 6,467,611 Jun 29, 2017 0.61% 24,188,865
Fidelity Extended Market Index Fund 4,669,312 Jan 30, 2018 0.44% 10,412,565
Oppenheimer Main Street All Cap Fund 2,730,510 Jul 30, 2017 0.26% 6,225,562
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RAD/holders?p=RAD
Have not read them in detail. Skimming it, the positives are that they did not underperform on EPS and were a bit ahead on overall revenue.
I saw at the bottom in all of the disclaimers that there is worry about shareholders not voting for the merger. Consistent with something I found today:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucejapsen/2018/06/26/amid-opposition-rite-aid-issues-shareholder-plea-to-vote-for-albertsons-deal/#2bc5e10c3003
Yep. And many of us have to since pensions are going the way of the dinosaur, especially in the private sector.
I benchmark my performance against a 60/40 portfolio using SPY/AGG or VFINX/VBMFX.
Here's a short, interesting read: https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/11/01/the-average-americans-investment-returns-and-how-y.aspx
Those are funds in two former employer plans that pay a guaranteed 3% annually and more if the fixed investments perform well. Been averaging over 4% for years. These are set for different time periods, usually at least a year. The short-term fixed also pays a guaranteed rate, reset quarterly, currently 3%.
That's just the Cliff's Notes version of my research. Over a year, data back to January 1945 if available, 20+ pages of spreadsheet data. Feb 2019 is only 8 months away, but it creeps up on you.
In the 15 annual projections whose targets I crunched back in January, the average projection for the SP500 is 2874 by end of year. We hit 2872 in January. So, I figure if we get back to that or beyond by year end, time to reshuffle the deck.
The Joker in this card deck is Trump (whether you like him or not) and his erratic economic policies and a 1970s economic world view that rattle the markets. We might not get back 2872.
As a retiree, I have already shifted my mutual portfolio to 60% equities, 14% REITs, 11% short-term fixed, 6% guaranteed, 5% intermediate bond and 4% cash.
Yes, those more advanced topics are on my to learn list. Currently, until I get better, sticking with covered calls.
Here's your recession heads up.
The next recession is estimated to start around April 2020, plus or minus 4.5 months. My research is pretty much in line with what I have read from other sources.
I base this on back-testing 3 leading economic indicators: yield curve (10 yr Treasury/2 year treasury yield spread), year over year (YoY) housing starts, and direction of the GDP.
The problems with recessions is that a recession is mostly defined on 2 qtrs of negative GDP. After the data are collected it takes at least 6 weeks for the economists to declare that the recession started 7 1/2 months ago. Too late.
Post WWII all recessions have been characterized by a tightening of the money supply where the gap between the 10 yr Treasury yield and 2 yr yield narrows. Since the 1950s the yield curve has inverted every time before a recession. That means the 2 yr yield is higher than the 10 year yield and the effects ripple thru the economy. Sometimes it inverts for a month, so I look for a sustained inversion of 4 months or longer. The sustained inversion is the better predictor. Then, statistically a recession starts 14 months after the beginning of an inversion, with a standard deviation of 4.5 months.
One false positive - 1966. No recession as the economy was basically strong and GDP stayed positive, although it slowed down. Consolation prize for those who would have prepared for a recession that did not come - they were prepared for the 22% bear market.
As of the last business day of May, the spread in the 10-2 yield was only 0.44%. I regressed the line of the yield curve starting with Oct 2015 whne the spread started to tighten and statistically the curve should invert in February 2019. Add 14.5 months and you have April/May for the start of the next recession and with a standard deviation of 4.5 months a window of Dec 2019 to October 2020 for the start.
I use YoY as a confirming factor. YoY starts go negative about 12 months before a recession. I only have data back to 1960 as this data was not collected before then, but it follows the same pattern as the yield curve.
As for GDP it is not negative yet at that point, but it is slowing from quarter to quarter.
So, here is what to look for: when the 10-2 yield inverts, watch that every month. The business press will be discussing it. Four months into a inverted yield curve look at YoY housing starts. They should have gone negative. And look at the last two qtrs of GDP; they should be on a downtrend.
Start to prepare and start to shift assets into a defensive position. If the trends continue for 9 months it's coming.
The markets do not necessarily correlate as much with these pre-recession trends and there were times when the market hit a high within a month of when the recession starts. However, on average they are in about a 7% decline when the recession starts.
Nearly all asset classes take a decline at the beginning of a recession, with real estate (excepting the 2008 recession) being the occasional exception. Even gold and precious metals decline at the beginning, but by fewer percentage point and then climb rapidly thru the lows and the first half of the recovery. All stock sectors take a hit. The average market decline in a recession is over 30%.
Since 1970, the recessions have become longer, deeper and more time elapsed for unemployment to recover
Still working on my investment strategy mid-2019 thru mid-2022.
I had been meaning to learn about options for years, but job always kept me too busy. When I retired last year, I finally learned. I came to appreciate them not only for the extra source of income and as a hedge, but they give you a sense of investor sentiment of future performance of a particular stock.
My current research is on recessions and how to prep for the next one and ride it out with gains.
I think there is a bottom for DB based on assets and book value, just wasn't where I thought it would be. I've played it a couple of times on the way down and recouped some. Ditto with RAD from selling a few options, so I figure I'll break even here or close. Made $$ in AMD as well and GE is on the rebound. Nothing like trying to juggle four falling knives. Overall, in the black. I started with basic options last year, so it's nice to get paid to learn. Just need to pick better underlying stocks.
Now I don't feel so bad w/5K shares at $2.53 looking for the $4+ range. My POS stock for the year is DB @ $19.16. Everytime they turn around it is one more fine here, one more fine there, for past misdeeds.
Really ouch!
Ouch! Quick mental math says your basis is over $6/share?
You're welcome Sinai. I think that after the investor's presentation, which focused alot on the improvements in the Safeway merger, posted an encouraging picture moving forward. If Albertson's is performing well, that also bodes well for the buyout of RAD and the current offer. But, ... we'll see.
Here's what I can find.
Apparently there were presentations on June 21 to investors
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1646972/000119312518199662/0001193125-18-199662-index.htm Each slide is in a separate graphic file.
and a prospectus (still in draft) on Friday, June 21.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/84129/000114420418035042/tv496915_8k.htm. Stockholders of record as of June 22 will be receiving docs in the mail and apparently proxies to vote on the merger in August https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/84129/000114420418035176/tv496958_425.htm
Interesting slide on food inflation/deflation
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/84129/000119312518199662/g616537425s8g1.jpg
Can't find anything on that. Was RAD added to the Russell 3000?
Any idea what caused the major volume on Friday?
Pretty good. Learning options. Good thing as the underlying stocks I picked for writing covered calls suck. But, in a way that isn't bad as the option premiums have covered the paper losses, which reinforces one of the ways to use options as a hedge. Second, options are a good concensus estimate of future price.
Deutsche Bank joins the troubled bank list
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3360669-deutsche-bank-fdic-problem-bank-list-ft-shares-almost-5-percent?app=1#email_link
Joey. Where ya been?
That looks promising. Will check it out. Thanks Salty!
Scary stuff!
Let's hope this trickles down to the smaller banks: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/after-tax-cuts-more-banks-are-profitable-now-than-in-the-past-two-decades-2018-05-22?siteid=rss&rss=1
Definitely has taken a beating. Book value of $40.38/share keeps me in and I have the funds to double down.
Still have some DB, but now only 1/3 of what I had before. Was able to make some $ off the other accounts/shares, but a stuckholder in this one account. At least in that one I can wait as I'm seriously down, but make a few bucks in the ups and downs with additional shares.
or if I buy
Looks like this is seeing a little activity after a dormant spell.
Then I could buy stamps on credit. Hmmm...
Hi Everyone. Happy Friday the 13th. Don't walk under ladders, break mirrors, spill salt, cross the path of a black cat, or take the advice of iHub posters (LOL). End of tax season, start of gardening season for me.
Things might get interesting. This could be good for shareholders https://seekingalpha.com/news/3345528-pushback-builds-rite-aid-albertsons-deal?app=1&uprof=45#email_link