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I saw the Ad today. I have to say I was expecting more statistical info to back the product. The number of warnings associated with the Belviq AD are really over the top and all over during the commercial. Its unfortunate in our society you have to list every negative scenario so you dont get sued. The ad is mediocre at best which might explain the lack of share price movement. All in all, we have a great product, not so great marketing, and not so great sales yet... We will see.
Good luck all!
All IMO
SF
I havent read the 8k but im seeing talk about ARNA submitting locaserin hydrocloride submitted for Phase 2 clinical trial on their 8k. Woot Woot!
IMO
SF
I dont like the intraday "batman" chart. We need some news! All IMO.
SF
Dang, I hope I didnt miss my "5.80ish" move today. I feel like a dumb dumb for not getting more money in the bank and making that call last week. Maybe I can buy in again tomorrow.
ALL IMO
SF
You said it best. Our domestic image is poo poo. While we have a great product and some ok sales and etc. we sure have met a wall of hatred from some investors and ARNA has not been the best at proving those very investors wrong per se. Now on the other hand a move from 1.30ish to today's price is not a bad return, the problem is the short interest and then folks that bought in at +8... not very happy at the moment. Arna has not been very good at convincing the public to buy in.
SF
Sorry my friend you answered your own question
That is for sure the case I believe. I just know that people and MM's want to drop the price to cover before the commercials hit and to pick up cheapies. Also, people are setting the stop losses and the mm's will certainly go after those. There is always a BS run down before news hits it seems. The MM's have more power and control in the $6's vs. the $8's.
If script numbers come in at a so-so number we might see a small pickup in s/p or smaller move lower. However, news could come at anytime of course and blow my theories to shreds. Im loading my boat with more shares. I love ARENA and believe it will be a very profitable company. ALL IMO
SF
I just wonder where the bottom is. I had a feeling this was heading down this way (market down or not). I want to buy more. April is when the tv ads are supposed to hit correct? I feel we are appropriately valued right now. Once the ads hit, we will be hitting new 52 week highs IMO. All IMO
SF
My 2 cents- I believe we are getting ready to see a slight pull back if not next week the week after in prep for the commercials getting ready to launch. Folks we have a great pipeline, good product(s). Now all that said we need a bit of focus on Investment Relations and how that translates to market. It seems very product specific here with not much in the way of IR IMO. Also, one thing that I dont see many people talking about.. the safety of the product. Its been on the market for a good portion of the year and previously monitored as well for several years, no major negative side effects...Also, the VVUS tankage in PPS has opened some doors for other HF's to recognize ARNA as a potential leader in the obesity market (also why I want more IR push from ARNA this year. Good luck all, all IMO!
SF
Woah! I look up and see ENTI making a solid move. Its nice to see some old faces around! Lets see what happens in the hands of the new sheriff in town. MMJ is hot. My boat is loaded again as of today. Im on board. Good luck all! IMO
SF
Watch for a delay in the Belviq commercial and other factors short term. The market is having a horrible year already. The shorts and new investors are waiting for this to hit the 4-5 mark again in my opinion. I hope it doesnt go that low again but it would not surprise me. The sales are poor but they are poor in everything right now due to market uncertainty across the board. Here are a few positive things im watching for:
Smoking trial results
Belviq and (whichever is the safer of the phens)combo results
New country approvals with immediate marketing in place
Belviq commercials
Market acceptance (everyone knows they were wrong about qsymia)Its time to make the switch to ARNA. ARNA has to sell itself better.
Everyone keep in mind we still have a really good product with hardly any side affects. If the smoking trials lead to more addiction trials (alcohol, other drugs, and etc.) this is way bigger than I expected.
As always, this is all my opinion only. Good luck people!
SF
I hope to see some comerical ads as well but until I see or hear that a TV advertising compaign is under way from ARNA, I wont hold my breath on the rumors flying around. I would hate for people to buy into the comercial ad hype for it to happen in Jan and it not happen until another quarter. I would bet ARNA/Esai management might be slightly hesitant to advertise a weight loss drug when there are multiple suits going on right now against over the counter companies. I would be willing to let the negative news die off a little and let the air clear and then hit it full boar. But then again, ARNA isnt known for its "full boar" anything at this point. Only my opinions though, hope ARNA kicks A in 2014.
SF
I believe its time to shine again. We still have big things on the horizon IMO. Expansion is coming, sales force is ready, we almost have a year under our belt and no negative press for the product itself. Wonder what the EU will think of that in the future when/if ARNa ever applies. Either way, the success stories are out there. Its a product that works. Its time for the shorts to pay! All IMO
SF
Arena Pharmaceuticals Reports That Eisai Will Double BELVIQ® (lorcaserin HCl) CIV Sales Force by December
http://money.msn.com/business-news/article.aspx?feed=PR&date=20131015&id=16998549
SF
Thanks for posting that. The general rule of thumb for planting trees are first year it sleeps, second year it creeps, third year it leaps. I believe we have our tree planted in June. I know most people dont want to wait 3 years (Me included) but I believe we do have some potential here. Of course the more fertilizer it receives the quicker it grows but too much will kill it.
The point to my rambling is we have already grown exponentially in PPS from a couple of years ago. True its not where it should be in terms of SP growth now but ive said it before, we invested in a product that works and in a company that has tremendous growth oppertunities. Its now up to ARNA to make sure our investments are strong going forward. I believe we will get paid in the future but its going to take a really long time. My account is still green and I have not lost any faith in the company. By the way anyone notice how many eyes are on the IMS and symphony numbers? Just people on the MB talking about it is creating positive buzz around the company. Wait till the DTC hits, its going to be pretty cool! IMO
SF
I likey what I see. VVus having a nightmare of a time staying in business IMO. Now the short interest is dropping. If the hedgies were smart they would drop VVus and hop aboard ARNA right now! I would love to see tutes holding 70 percent ARNA with an asking price of 8-9 per share before a big run happens. If ARNA comes off with any solid news/partners in the next few days its going to get real interesting. ALL IMO
SF
So is trolling IMO. Its a good thing ARNA has a fad to sell keep their lights on. This fad actually makes the jeans fit better instead of making them look better. Not to mention more drugs in the works to pay the bills when the fad is over huh? ALL IMO
SF
Hi Southpaw- Esai and ARNA have stated they are trying to target/educate doctors before doing commercials. I think I saw somewhere they are doing 19-20 health care confs this year just to educate doctors on the product. Many of these confs have hundreds of doctors attending.
What you are seeing is a solid foundation building. This product only launched in June. Like any other product, it has to spread naturally first. I kind of like it this way. Now when we have a future partner in other countries, we can say we have made X product and sold X units with no advertising, with this product safety profile and results- imagine what advertising WILL do. IMO its almost an instant sell to an additional partner. The problem with this is it takes a really long time... obviously.
ALL IMO
SF
What a tremendous call! (not the way it was presented of course but the actual stats were awesome!)Now, lets watch the PPS drop based on this awesome news so the HF can steal more shares. These guys still have to make their money back from being short before it runs.
This quarter may be even worse to watch the PPS but I have a feeling (as stated on the conf call as well) next quarter is the game changer as far as EPS/share price is concerned. 3 weeks of sales = 18 cents per share. What is a full quarter of sales worth? I think it was awesome to not give guidance on next quarter. Let people guess and get a surprise. So for the hedgies, keep pushin down, if this was MY company, I would be celebrating.
All IMO
Theory day- I have been checking out Esai's news lately and they are setting up expansion factory to market more/"new" drugs and etc in the UK. Also transfering of shares to a subsiderary (sp) for some type of "farming growth". They ARE spending money to make money right now. You all can check out marketwatch or whereever and see the news links and tell me if you are thinking what im thinking- about a merger/aquisition possibly happening soon.
If you had a chance to take a proven product that makes you money and not have to worry about splitting the revs and BUY that company at a "cheap" price based on current PPS, what is stopping that from happening? Red-tape! Who's got scissors? Just upping the sales reps with Esai name behind it would generate a ton more sales. This is all in my opionon and definitely am just tossing this out there as an FYI-and etc. This all could just be nothing and im spewing random crapola, but maybe not, we may find out tomorrow!
SF
I second that. I dont think its coincidence that Esai and ARNA have a conf call on the same day, ARNA moves its earnings call to earlier date and BEFORE the market opens. If im not mistaken the Esai conf call is 4 am US time. The price has been dropping for no reason lately on good news, tutes are loading, short interest is up right now. Im going to assume there will be a really down day followed by a really big up day in terms of volume before the call. Something will "leak". We will see. Cheers! Its all IMO
SF
WOW! Back from vacation and I see now we are doing some work in Taiwan now. Also, wonder why the earnings call was moved closer and followed by a web cast immediately afterwards? HMMMMMM...Also Esai has a call the same day... HMMMMM. Script numbers are increasing. The foundation building going on here is making a fella happy! I cant wait for 08/01/13!
ALL IMO
SF
Wait till July numbers are released as far as the short numbers are concerned (IMO), the 7 buck range lost support and imo, lots of shorts are covering right now. I expect a downtrend of PPS into the 5-6 range and then right back up to 7. All guesswork and IMO
SF
Yes, I agree, it seems to be following a very specific direction in trading (down). Tutes have to get ownership over 50% and they have to cover. This makes perfect sense. Not saying 100% this is why we have dropped so hard but it all adds up. The good thing, no matter where or when this finds a bottom, the sales numbers will run this stock once the manipulation (from being on the wrong side) is mostly gone. Nobody will argue that IMO. These crooks are making money on the way down and will make it all back on the way up. Right now, the script numbers are actually trending towards a very positive launch. Smart traders know if they are going to cover it better be right now. This makes me wonder if the market would have bet on ARNA instead of VVus, where would the PPS be? Nothing like seeing a company trading for 13 bucks that is borrowing money faster than a starving crackhead and the number one shareholder that wants to dethrone all the powers that be. Karma will speak. All IMO
SF
Im sorry you sold into this pull back and lost money on your transaction. I would say based on the short numbers decreasing by 50 million dollars and short numbers dropping by almost 10 million shares, that the "play" is still very active. I dont see any recent news that should point to a greater than 20 percent loss in stock price, other than the previous 60 million shorts trying to figure out why the hell scripts are selling on a pill that "doesn't work" (HI Consumer Reports I'm talking to you, AF I'm talking to you, JC I'm talking to you). It's my professional opinion that someone is covering as much as possible perhaps right before real numbers are released or maybe before some major news is released. Hmm, wonder how many insiders are selling their stock at these prices? Wonder how many are buying? Wonder where you will be once a new partner is on board? Where will you be when some of the questions here are answered? In or out? I know where I am. Again, sorry for your loss. All IMO
SF
Agree and believe this is absolutely the last chance to cover. IMO
SF
Belviq is a great product. Is it the best thing the world has ever seen? I would think not. Does this product help the morbidly obese people in the world? There have been proven facts stating that it does. Time does not have to tell for the product, it has already been told based on the thousands of people tested, people taking it currently. This medicine has been picked apart from top to bottom by some of the nation's finest doctors and by the patients and the only complaint is that it is not covered by a lot of insurance carriers (NOW) and that it only mildly reduces weight gain.
No matter what people say or do to try and slander the product (which seems to be at an all time high right now) the product does work and serve a purpose. Im excited about the time will tell part of your statement. ARNA is still at the ground floor. Pipeline, many partners, many positive statistics/stories (which you know will spread like wildfire once presented to the media).
Weight out the positives and negatives of the company. Trade as you wish. Just remember, the product works & good luck arguing that it doesnt. There are way more stats that prove that it does vs. that it doesnt or it simply wouldnt be on the market. ALL IMO
SF
You bring up a good point. How much does drinking affect the daily use? I know most pills intensify the pill. Thanks for keeping us updated on your progess.
On another note, the PPS really is garbage right now, unless you are buying. Im anticipating some news real soon (hopefully)to get us back to the mid 8's at least. Hope everyone has safe 4th of July. All IMO
SF
New hit piece article from the Street is out. Typically, I completely ignore the article but in the article AF writes, im going to take away a few points he makes that I actually agree with. First, ARNA is not going to be an instant blockbuster. This thing make take several years to rise out of this current trading range based on sales/script data from Belviq. One thing AF fails to state, is that ARNA does have a pipeline. Even if Belviq sales are "moderate" from here on out we still have other value added drugs in the works. Second thing I take away is not to pay too much attention to the projections of scripts short term. People will be trading (grading the companies performance) on a weekly basis. This is completely unfair for any company's stock performance and may drive away long retail IMO. Hang tight folks we have our work cut out but this is nothing new.
SF
new SA article out that i enjoyed reading:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1520572-new-analysis-of-arena-s-belviq-is-good-news-for-responders-and-shareholders
It shows graph charts comparing Belviq to Qsymia weight loss stats.
Very impressive for Belviq IMO.
SF
Interesting thoughts today- The activity going on with our competitors over the past few days/weeks, it makes me wonder whats next? Will wall street jump ship (to ARNA) and will they do it now? I'm thinking we will begin to see some big new shareholders over the next few weeks. With VVus shareholders watching an internal battle take place, im very happy with my investment with ARNA. The tables are turning folks and regardless of what was presumed from the street before we are going to see some real sales numbers soon. I have personally talked to some health care managers at facilities, friends and family, etc. just to spread the word. Its an exciting time!!
All IMO
SF
Tremendous numbers out of the gate IMO. Now we just wait and watch the compound growth. I dont know about you all but I have been talking to everyone about it in the South (USA). ARNA has a great product that targets obesity, diabetes and now mention of smoking from Craig Audet. Happy Friday folks! All IMO
SF
You could be correct. It could absolutely not be MM manipulation. The signs that it is manipulation that are really common keep showing its face, I.E Tutes increasing their shares held, short numbers drop, etc. Remember, a market doesnt just go one way. when it does go one way and their is no real company news I always get suspicious. For the record, I believe that when a stock goes up as well. Im just not buying the fact ARNA is not being manipulated on a daily basis by Hedgies who have lost a ton of money due to not having any faith in the company. The good news is its just IMO
SF
Its already ugly. I wont sell until the company does something to make me sell. These hit articles and market manipulation are strangling the minds of longs right now. There is no way im selling at the bottom only to watch the tutes load up from 50% and shorts decrease their holdings and covering. I believe its the shorts trying everything they can to cover and not forcing a short squeeze before the release of sales numbers. How many of these MF, SA, Consumer reports authors will be coming forward to say they were wrong about ARNA in the next few weeks? Just remember, we could get a China partner or any other global partner and increase sales at the drop of a hat. We have only just begun. ALL IMO
SF
I could definitely be looking at things differently. I am of the mindset of articles are just articles unless they have real stats included that outweigh one's opinion. To me, the retail investors would be more likely to sell based on PPS movement, which is typically manipulated as a result of said article or articles. So the article in my opinion are by products or excuses of MM manipulation. ALL IMO
SF
Someone take a look at the 3 month chart, pay close attention to the 8.38ish mark. There is a clear line of resistance/support there. It will not surprise me if we do touch the late 7's. People have to understand there is an immediate need for the tutes to gain more than 50 percent. Also, the news of the launch probably brought some new buyers, the MM's are going to attack those stop loses until they are cleared out. Good luck to everyone, even to the soul that wants to cover in the 4's. All IMO
SF
To even think SA ARNA articles are responsible for anything is a joke. Barely laughable at best. Price projections are a terrible thing to do IMO. They make one be accountable for that prediction. They make the author provide a level of detail as to how one projects such intelligent valuations in such a variable market. You will not see ME at $4.0. If the timing is right, you may see more people than you want at $40.00. All IMO
SF
See this previous msg. Its happening now. Look around. What has ARNA done to result in the price drop you ask? Nothing. Ill tell you whats not being talked about, the number of scripts flying out the windows of pharmacies as we speak. How do I know this? The same way the shorts do. Im paying attention to medical professionals and what they are describing taking place day by day. Bring on the volatility, see ya at the bank. Ill be the guy with a smile on my face, fat pocket, and a smaller gut. All IMO
SF
Im watching closely based off exactly what you are describing. Many people have said they are having gut feelings about recent moves with ARNA. I do have a feeling something is going on and we will find out really soon whats up. I have seen a lot of chatter lately about buyout possiblities, wouldnt surprise me if sales numbers are good on launch.
On a similar note I was thinking of long term ARNA from today forward terms, I wouldnt mind a 2 for 1 split if there is no buyout. If EPS sky rockets, would be a good time to split on the front end. 60 mil shorts to cover quickly and be forced to cover if earnings projections are really high.
There are so many positive what if's with this company you cant help but wonder what surprise is around the corner. All IMO
SF