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If Apple Buys Twitter... Dividend?
Jim Cramer on CNBC has been advocating for weeks, and even to a greater degree now, that Apple should buy Twitter. If Apple did buy Twitter, say next month, how would that affect GSVC?
As far as I can tell, assuming the premium paid for Twitter would mean immediate profits for GSVC, this would allow GSVC to offer a dividend in relation to the profits. Since, given their current tax status, they would have to give out 90% of profits in the form of a dividend. Would the resulting dividend come at EOY or could they offer it sooner?
That's kind of what I was thinking as well, though I didn't look for the current share prices. The statements are based on 12/31/11. The markets have appreciated quite a bit since then. So one would think the expectations regarding Twitter and others would have risen as well, given a more positive perspective on the economy.
Cramer, I remember, floated that idea a couple weeks ago as well. I agree that the purchase of Twitter would be great for Apple. They already have established a cohesive product base for communication in the future and their eventual incorporation of Siri into everything will only further establish this. To then own future communications platforms like Twitter and be able to plaster Apple ads all over it would be like any large company of today being able to advertise continuously on every cable television station simultaneously. To own an entire media genre would be incredibly lucrative.
But I also feel that Twitter will be forced into an IPO, in the same way FB was, by 2014 at the latest. Whether I am right or wrong about this is not all that important in terms of GSVC. They own shares currently and those will appreciate either way, whether Twitter stays private, goes public, or is purchased outright. Assuming we don't go to war with Iran, invade Syria, stoke Russia/China, and have Europe collapse. Without all that, I think GSVC is a lock.
Per the 497 filed this morning the company states...
"The underwriters expect to deliver the shares on or about February 15, 2012."
In my mind, the shares were probably all sold Friday, but apparently the general offering will be fully delivered by Wednesday. At least that is how I read it.
While the compensation structure lends to the possibility of shadiness, I believe that the 2% management fee is very similar to the way hedge funds generally compensate themselves. Also, if you were to invest in a similar, though non-public, venture capitalist fund, I believe you would have to invest $1,000,000 up front, or deposit $250,000 on a regular basis. So for my money, if I trust the pre-IPO strategy, then GSVC is a good alternative.
Also, while they were under on their investments on Dec 31 (per statements), I'm not sure they are still under on all of them, given the market's increase since then. Though I have not made any calculations regarding this.
Currently I re-bought the majority of my shares at 15.20 and if the volume dries up and the price starts creeping down, I may sell some and re-buy lower, or just simply buy more. I believe that the stock will either form a base and stay above the 15.20 level and slowly rise, or it will slowly creep down to 13 or so before the hype of FB and a possible dividend begins in May. If this occurs, I believe the stock will rise to something between 20-25, then when hype dies down there will probably be another share offering. Obviously, if the market does not cooperate then there will be no dividend, the company will be under on its investments, and I will just have to hold until Twitter IPO's... at that point I fully expect this stock to be above 30/share. My main driver here is not FB, but actually I am waiting for the eventual Twitter IPO in 2013. In my mind, Twitter is the face of media in the future. Their IPO will be a bigger event than FB in my opinion and GSVC I believe will use their recent capital enhancement to build upon their Twitter position, in addition to other things of course. From what I remember, GSVC is one of, if not the only, way one can own a piece of Twitter in the public realm.
The GSVC Gameplan...
GSVC did nothing wrong in offering shares, the company only did what they promised. The plan is to use money raised from stock to invest in growing pre-IPO companies, then eventually sell their stakes and give out 90% of the proceeds in the form of dividends. They have always said that they would offer shares every 6-12 months if needed for future investments. When they sell they currently have to disburse 90% as a dividend if they want to keep their tax status. If you read the statements you would know this.
Currently they can sell their Groupon stake on May 1st, or sometime close to that. So if the shares have appreciated, then they may sell some and and give out a healthy dividend. If this happens around the time Facebook goes public, just imagine the hype that this stock will see. As far as I can tell they could eventually stop gaining capital from share offerings, but to do this they would have to reinvest money from the selling of shares, instead of giving a dividend. This would change their tax status though and therefore may not help as much as one would think.
Currently, this is the plan... raise capital by selling shares, then buy into companies, sell the stakes, give a large dividend, then repeat. The managers are paid a 2% fee, much like you would see into private equity or hedge fund investments. This is the way the company works. If you want to ride this to the top, you either need to sell prior to each possible share offering then buy back, or just stick it out in spite of the short term drops in share price. If you believe in the company's strategy, then either way should work out long term.
Moe is not out to scam anyone. He has a reputation in the industry and connections with very important people in silicon valley. I really doubt he is willing to risk that respect. My thought is that he is hoping that through GSVC he can establish himself as the next Warren Buffett, and solidify his reputation as one of the best growth stock pickers in history. Also there are many important people on their board who would not risk their reputations either. This is also a company with an actual product, not some empty scam. If you were surprised by the share offering, that is your fault for not learning about the company you are investing in. Longterm, GSVC should be a retirement maker.
Today has started well... I was worried that the MM's might try to drop us fast this morning in an attempt to break the .004 resistance. They are holding it down right now with the ask being hit as it has and the bid still at .004... oh wait... now they are starting to raise the bid... .0041. The fact that they won't let things go up or down tells me that maybe another deal is ready to happen soon and they want it in the mid .004s... either way... the continued volume and steady pps are positive things. Remember a couple weeks ago the question was, would we drop by 10% or 20% each day... Things have certainly stabilized with the .004 resistance. Now we just need some good steady consolidation.
The fact that there were no stock promoters paid to hype this thing pre-news tells me that they didn't want this news to do all that much. Maybe just some quick cover.
If they paid with restricted shares, could FSM owners have converted some of the shares to common the same day they received them? And since FSM is selling their company for stock, wouldn't they expect that stock to appreciate at some point, because you would think TGGI would have either told them that the stock will be rising soon, with a possible merger and all, because if FSM thinks it is going down perpetually, they would certainly try to convert and sell as fast as possible. It seems like there is something planned here. It will be interesting to see what tomorrow brings.
As long as we stay over .004 then we are still in the same tunnel we have been in for 2 weeks (the .004-.006 tunnel)... if it goes below .004, then it will possibly be pretty painful. But I am still going to hold because my gut tells me there is inevitably a big rise due to hit at some point. Essentially, the stock fell way too fast, then has somewhat consolidated, and even with the red day, we still had some great volume, so maybe another few weeks of consolidation around the .004 area and then some merger or acquisition news might stick.
I also hold to the theory that the company wants the price within a certain range when merger news occurs. If they wanted this to just collapse, why keep it sideways the last two weeks. If they wanted it to crash to .000s then they could have done it already. I think there is something being orchestrated here. Hopefully to our benefit. Though, I'll admit, at this point that is a BIG hope.
The last few weeks, I kind of figured some dilution might occur pretty soon, but I thought they would hype it a little more THAN THAT before they started pumping in shares.
I have never understood this... why don't more companies give the news and volume a couple days to drive the share price way up, and then dilute... Too often they put out a pr, give it a couple minutes then start diluting. What the heck... I guess they are afraid of getting TOO MUCH attention, i.e. the eyes of the SEC. It would be nice if we were all wrong about this, but the company isn't doing much to dispute it. I guess we will see what tomorrow brings. Hopefully continued volume, maybe some news clearly explaining the company's plans and some green.
I still think that .004 may be a pretty solid base. If that breaks tomorrow, the consolidation of the last few weeks will have been wasted. If it continues to hold, well then maybe we just wait for the eventual rise. This thing is due a good rise at some point, it just needs some consolidation and clarity by management.
WOW... 5 Million Volume!!!
Looks Good!!!
Nice morning!!! Lets get this thing rolling... I felt that we were close to the bottom this last couple weeks and it seemed like news might be coming because the last couple press releases were a little more than a week apart too. I bought a bunch around .005 and got my average from .02 to .0066 so I'm ready for this to run.
I agree with the post earlier that if this thing breaks .007 then there is nothing really keeping it from quickly going to .02 and if it breaks that... then it will get real interesting!!!
Until news comes, and then volume, I think we are simply at the whim of whoever is placing the 100,000 share bids. If they want us to trickle down as we are then that is what we will do (unless, that individual is just trying to load up as much as possible in preparation of upward movement).
We really just have to hope this individual or group is amassing a long position rather than a short. If news comes, and volume rises, the volume may be able to overtake the thing and send us upward. If that happens I bet a number of short positions will be forced to close out and we will get a nice little bump.
The key is of course positive news and volume. I would say one could just wait until we hear news and then jump in, but I have a feeling that if/when this goes up, it will go up fast.
Completely agree... I have lowered my average from .02 to .0066 during this week of churning... but when the churning is finished we will either fly or crash.
The thing that keeps me hopeful an upward swing is on its way is the stabilization we have seen lately. If they wanted to crash this stock they could have already done it, but it seems to hold at .0047 and the big money seems fine with that.
The increased volume today makes things look good going into next week and I have also noticed the money flow indicators have been slowly increasing all week. To me it feels like something is setting up. It could be that they are preparing to dilute the thing, but like I said, if they are going to do that on a massive scale it would make sense to pump the thing much higher first.
It could be that all of this is just setting everything up for a pending deal to go through. Hopefully we will get some good news next week to clarify things and help garner some attention.
Maybe, maybe not... I am assuming you meant an increase in outstanding shares, since I truly doubt another increase in authorized is going to happen soon. That happened not too long ago, possibly in preparation for the pending deals/mergers. There could be bad news coming, and then again, there could be good news coming as well. Either way, I'm happy that we are getting more volume today and continuing the sideways trend we've had this last week.
I still contend that if certain individuals wanted to crash this stock, they could have at any point. It seems like something else is going on to me. Preparation for something. Also, if large scale dilution does happen, I would first expect a large pump campaign that would raise the stock price drastically and get much more attention around it, then they would have something to dilute into.
Once again, I could be wrong and it could crash at any second, but it doesn't appear that is the plan of the MMs at the moment, evidenced by the steady bid/ask. If they wanted to crash it today they could have. Something else is going on.
Also notice that over the last three plus days... all of the 100,000 share transactions have been happening at .0047... it seems someone has a prearranged agreement to acquire or sell or cover 100,000 share chunks when .0047 is available. This may signal why when the stock moved up to .0058 the MM pressure was to pull it back down to .0047 and no lower. They seem to be wanting to transact a certain amount of shares at that price methodically. It has got to be some sort of prearranged deal to buy, sell, or cover. Once again, this might signal why we keep getting pulled back to this .0047 price and also why the bid/ask isn't dropping. Once the arrangement is complete then this thing will probably open up one way or another.
Something is brewing...
If they are all "sells", why hasn't the bid/ask changed. This might show my ignorance, but it just seems strange that like clockwork 100,000 share transactions are happening every thirty minutes or so and the bid/ask doesn't lower. To me it seems as though someone is preparing for some event that is soon to occur. Hopefully it is someone loading up for a coming upward move.
Another thing I noticed, by looking at the chart and the volume, is that for the last few weeks it seems as though there has been a pattern of four red days and then the fifth day is green. Today would be another one of those fifth days. It could be nothing but if we have volume over a million and the day is green then there might be something to that pattern and we might have four red days to follow. It is probably just a random pattern though. I still think this thing has another upward run in it, especially if they plan on diluting, wouldn't they try to hype the thing first for a week or so?
In the end, I truly think there are a few powerful people in control of this stock and as long it continues a sideways pattern, it may be that they are loading up for an upcoming run and/or pump. Time will tell.
Not sure... but I think the large investors controlling this stock are trying to keep the price in this area (most evidenced by their recent absence). We also therefore seem to have stopped the perpetual losses and might now be building up some form of consolidation.
The company could be diluting, but if they were, you would think that they would try to pump the thing a bit more, rather than just taking the bits and crumbs that they are getting now.
Once again, I think this is the calm before the storm. When the news/trades do start to hit they will hit hard. We will either fly upward on positive news or crash hard on negative. Time will tell, but I am sticking with the stock because it just seems to be due for a big rise in my opinion. The thing fell too fast and with some positive news it should recover to some degree, and an even partial recovery would mean big returns.
The Pending TGGI Deals EXPLAINED...
Ok... stick with me...
Looking at the recent news headlines, it seems that essentially ECOFL is a subsidiary of the TGGI group, and the group purchased Ecosafe for the ECOFL program. TGGI is then acquiring AWI to help support the ECOFL program as a means of distributing the Ecosafe product. In the deal with FSM, FSM management will essentially take over TGGI, and TGGI ownership will essentially step down to control only the ECOFL division, of the TGGI group, that distributes the Ecosafe product. Then ECOFL, as a separate division will sell itself and the Ecosafe product to ALFE, (a separate company owned by the owner of TGGI), and therefore we are currently owners of TGGI as a whole (which currently includes the ECOFL division and therefore the product, Ecosafe). Once the Ecosafe product is sold to ALFE, purchased basically by shares, the current TGGI stock owners will not only own the TGGI company (which will essentially then be FSM, since the FSM management will run it), but also will receive shares in ALFE, the group purchasing the Ecosafe product.
So stockholders of TGGI now, will then be stockholders in the new TGGI/FSM green products company and the new ALFE/Ecosafe distribution company.
In this process, FSM is basically buying the TGGI company and current TGGI management is moving to and taking ownership of ALFE and taking their best product with them.
So, in the end their will be two new companies and any individuals who are TGGI shareholders at the conclusion of the deals will obtain shares in ALFE as well.
"TGGI has signed an LOI with American Life Holding Co., Inc. ("ALFE") to acquire ECOFL for stock. Every share holder of TGGI will receive registered free trading shares of ALFE upon closing of the transaction thereby giving the shareholders of TGGI shares of both TGGI and ALFE once the transaction is closed, the ratio will be determined by the closing bid price of each company once the audited financials have been delivered."
Am I wrong here??? The situation is confusing I know. Any other thoughts on the arrangements?
It does seem to be stabilizing...
but looking at the chart it seems like we are on a major pivot point with the bands being so tight and now slightly opening up. The thing is, this stock could crash or explode upward at any second, all it would need is someone with deep pockets to direct it.
Yet, it seems like what those in power want is to keep it where it is for the moment. If they were shorting it, they could have made it crash already. Instead, it stabilizes. Which makes me feel like it must be prearranged for the merger or someone is preparing a base for an upward move. I could be wrong, but with volume this low, once a major player chooses to move the stock, then it will move fast.
Great time for some NEWS... the last two updates were on Wed. and Thur., so maybe we will see something soon. This stock needs something to help it gain a bit of attention.
Though, my real theory here is that the company wants the price around the .0045-.0055 range when the merger occurs. The fact that the details of the share exchange will be based on the closing price of the day on which it occurs implies that someone has a strong incentive to have the price at a certain location. The last week of trading makes it appear as though the market makers are doing all they can to keep the pps within the said range. Also, whoever was making the larger trades (100k-1mil), seem to have slowed their trading drastically. This might be because they got the price where they wanted it and just plan on letting the pps coast until the merger occurs.
With that said, once we get some news the volume should return. A successful merger would certainly be a positive event, and should give this stock some massive upside.
It does look somewhat manipulative. Most of the deals are happening at the ask, and once they do, the ask is lowered just below the last sale and the bid is dropped drastically. Obviously the majority people the last few days are buying, so what's the deal?
My guess is that the short interest on this stock really controls the thing. But with a little bit of good news and attention that might be to our advantage if they can be forced to cover. We really just need to get some more attention, otherwise the major interests are just going to control this stock indefinitely, and it seems as if there main goal is to bring it down.
The crazy thing is, the stock, despite the shorts best efforts, seems to have hit it's bottom, or at least a major resistance level within the .0045-.0055 range. As long as the company doesn't start diluting we should be fine since apparently most of the stock is locked up in the hands of individuals who are not selling.
OR.... Maybe there is a deal between the company and the MM's to keep the price around .005 when the merger occurs, because it seems to go a little above and below that at times, but despite the volume the spread doesn't go anywhere but back to the .005 area. If this does go sideways until the merger that would signal some good consolidation and stabilization. I guess we just have to wait and see.
Hopefully we can get some buys before the bell.
The float must be maxed out... with the volume drying up like this.
I guess we now have the answer to the question about the increased AS. The increase must have just been necessary for the minutia of the merger. Obviously the company is not diluting the stock when things are this quiet. But the continually lowering ask sure isn't helping us out, since the vast majority of recent deals are happening at the ask. I kind of get the feeling that when the volume does return, it will be with a bang.
New High of Day!!!
Maybe we can get some positive movement to end the day?
Calm before the Storm...
TGGI seems to have found a home around .005... The bid has been raised and still no one is selling, or buying for that matter. With the bands tightening, it seems this one is getting ready for a big move of some kind. Positive news might just set it off.
Oh wait... looks like some large buys just came in... nice.
Ouch... That was a big hit. We'll just have to wait for news. It seems someone was buying at .005 when it was on the ask, but no one was buying when it rose above that the last few days. If someone was trying to hold it up, it obviously didn't work.
Hopefully whoever was buying at .005 will help us have a strong finish (strong being a relative term, on a stock acting so weak)... Looking at the chart, the bands were getting pretty tight, if this closes at .004 it might signal a downward break. I sure hope not.
Either way, I still feel like this stock has a good rise left in it. Simply a matter of time and good news.
Looking at the chart, it seems like the stock has fallen way too fast in relation to the reality of the situation. The news on this one is predominantly good. The raising of the AS I believe is in relation to the merger with AMNE (who i believe also raised their AS around the same time). My thought is that it has something to do with merger compensation.
This could be an elaborate plot to dilute, but even if it is I think there will be one more good run in this stock. It's fallen too fast, a recovery is due, and I think there are still a lot of eyes on this stock, when it does rise we will see many people jumping in. And like I said, almost all the exchanges have been at the ask the last few days, and notice that the majority of the daily volume has been buys at .005 when it is on the ask, someone seems to be loading up there. The last few days there has been at least 5 million shares bought when the ask was at .005, someone either doesn't want it to go below that or believes it is the base for the next run.
We've Hit Bottom... It sure looks like we have finally found a base here... also the float must truly be maxed out (and not raised) with such small volume.
If the merger goes through as advertised we should see a good surge. I originally bought in at .02 and have since averaged down to .0078. TGGI seems to be due. Notice that yesterday after 12pm almost every buy/sell was on the ask. If the stock can hold around .005 into the beginning of next week it might start to worry those shorting the stock and when the merger news does come though we might get some extra momentum from the covering.
I personally see this stock spiking back to somewhere between .06 and .10 within the next month.