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Guess who Accord Healthcare is owned by? Intas
Intas challenged and overcame many Purdue legal patent hurdles in US last year potentially opening the door to generic oxy generics.
FDA also claimed Intas of data manipulation, throwing Hcl acid on reporting, changing data during visit, etc.
A complex and interesting weave for sure.
Everyone has a different trading agenda. Definitely not a one size fits all approach. I’m sitting pretty until the buyout.
When one gains 15-20% over a few day session. Nothing wrong with selling if you have a ST strategy.
Wasn’t Jammie out at 0.14? Haven’t seen a post for weeks. Some sense of normalcy has returned.
Pump fest? 2024 will be a sweet ride. Can’t wait to see full Q with Prasco.
Someone just dropped 800K. Good for that trader to lock in those gains. Never hurts.
Falling off a cliff here with no buy interest. Going to be a roller coaster this year.
Don’t trust pre-market OTC ask. Let’s wait to see how session kicks off.
Litigation is all they have at this point to delay the inevitable. Settlements and partnerships will be a huge win for Purdue.
Who was RRK?
No one is holding this down. Plenty of profit takers for short term traders.
Come on. Let’s be at least in the same ballpark as reality.
Ah, I see confusion. I interpreted as drug trial, you are referring to legal trial. My fault.
There is no generic oxy trial. It was completed long time ago, we filed and are fighting Purdue legally on patents. FDA has already accepted the filing, but may hold off until legal situation shakes out. Decision wouldn’t be due until later this calendar year so has time to work through court system.
It’s simply just a matter of timing - a few days to ship and be processed. Technically a truck of product could sit in distribution receiving yard for a few days and we wouldn’t recognize it until processed, but these are highly regulated prescriptions so urgency to receive and record will be of utmost importance.
That’s not how revenue accounting works. This is not a cash based P&L business.
I think what Nasrat is referring to is that Q4 quarter will have a full quarter’s worth of Prasco, not just launch quantity. This will be refill volume.
Launch took place in Dec. Q3 revenues will include launch volume in the P&L. Collecting the cash would just show up in A/R & Cash balances whenever that timing shakes out ~60 days from transaction.
If that’s the case, I will eat two helpings of my shorts. Apparently you have lost sleep over it.
Prasco wasn’t in the cards then. :)
I think it was a fat finger at the end of the day, someone not putting in a limit order. Could be one of small drugs pending FDA approval, but those aren’t going to be materially increasing value.
I heard Lasers passed, but just think Couch and John Langston got booted from IHub.
Yes, and holding steady doesn’t include any tailwind from Prasco.
Per last cc, “If you look at just 2023, January through December, that alone will be way north of $45 million.”
How do you quantify “way north”? Backing into this will give you some sort of guidance for Oct - Dec quarter.
Yes, for both. Q needs to be filed 5 days faster so in 40 days and K is filed 2 weeks faster at 75 days vs 90. I believe status change is next fiscal year, not for next Q.
Market cap has now well surpassed $75M, which means Elite will once again be an accelerated filer next year. Subsequent year when stock breaks $0.70 they will then become a large accelerated filer
For Q & K filing purposes.
We won’t have Q1 insights until June since it’s technically Q4 for 10K filing.
Here are my initial estimates based on initial thoughts of Prasco, but launch will give us bit more clarity. Storage expansion mid-year + vigabatrin + small launches + back half needle mover FDA decisions that may or may not be launched to have fiscal impact this calendar year. If Purdue loses case, make way for Elite.
Q1: $25M
Q2: $30M
Q3: $40M
Q4: $50M
Agree. Nasrat has actually done a good job of cost containment. Revs have increased and costs have held steady. You do need to support growth on back end too and facility expansion, some of which will be capex spread over life of lease.
I’m interested to see margin impact from contract mfg with Prasco as it should be less than our direct sales model. Years ago Nasrat wasn’t a fan of contract mfg due to thinner margins. Times have changed and so has volume opportunity.
I disagree with $10B market. Generics will drive Vyvanse market size down due to lower pricing. I’m not complaining as it’s still a huge market. But we all use different math to justify our positions and growth trajectory.
Growing companies have TTM PE + forward multiple based on anticipated growth. If you stick to just TTM, you’re likely being conservative in estimation, but nothing wrong with that.
Generics have a low PE because they aren’t a terribly sexy high growth business. They are usually highly competitive, low barrier to entry and lower margins. Elite is carving a different low debt, decent margin, nice asset utilization model. Nothing locks in revenue unlike NDA based drugs, but Elite is creating a nice niche in cornering CNS market at time of trouble, driving profitability and fueling R&D for portfolio expansion. It’s rather unique.
This is referring to flow to net income. Normal PE for generics is upper single digits, but Elite is very profitable and 10 PE is nice & conservative. I use 10-12 for Elite so about same range.
I think we’ll be rewarded with forward multiple in high growth phase. Would be better if we were getting visibility and buy in on real exchange.
So formula here is using $10M net income / 1B shares gives you about a penny in earnings x PE multiple of 10. This quick math gets you to a dime for every 1M net income is what was being referred to here.
For quick calcs I assume 30% of top line rev will flow through to net income. So applying similar math, for every 10M in net income or 33M in rev gets you a dime in PPS.
Not sure what formula you are referring to.
I like it. I’m expecting 2024 calendar year top line to be about $145M, excluding any new major launches in back half, so primarily Prasco, organic + pricing. Selling into high growth phases is where Nasrat should be setting company up for. New storage + mfg space will set this up nicely from asset utilization perspective.
Higher legal fees would be adjusted out of EBITDA reporting if they had a decent IR staff since it’s not part of normal operations.
Not sure how much anticipated small drugs would bring in, but antimetabolite is another on shortage list…
Per last cc, “If you look at just 2023, January through December, that alone will be way north of $45 million. The next two years are going to be a lot better than that.”
Rev would be ~$13-14M for fiscal Q3 (calendar year Q4) for us to meet the $45M comment above - so basically flat to slightly down vs Q2. He says way above here since we’re including Prasco in the mix. Q4 will include Prasco reorders, more organic growth + any icing on cake from small dopamine agonist/antimetabolite approvals/launch or Vigabatrin contract mfg.
No jury
No one has any short position in this. Love the conspiracy theories though. Reality is better than fiction.
CST dude. Get real.
And yet we’re not the first to overcome the legal hurdles. I don’t think we are first. I think we are among the first.
I’m aware of the abuse deterrence requirements (insufflation study), but we don’t know how many others have passed and subsequently submitted. We’re blind to it.