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Didn’t we file in December, so 10 months puts us in late October.
This isn’t the first filing. CRL was received years ago due to insufflation requirements for all.
No approval for Oxy. Another CRL? If Elite is in contact regularly with the FDA, Nasrat would likely have known. We’ll likely hear more in a few weeks.
One approval posted for 7/19 so far. I expect more to be listed.
Earnings aren’t due to SEC until the 15th. So I’d expect filing that day after close with call on morning of 16th.
Orange book updated through Thursday, but not Friday as of yet.
Ok, that time horizon is a little different than 130 days.
I don’t think there will be a partner. I think SequestOx and ART add a little more value when they decide to pull the trigger and sell. If Elite couldn’t find a partner during the opioid crisis not sure now is any better.
- Dopamine Agonist approval & launch
- FDA decision on Vyvanse
- Hopefully a positive BE study (nothing so far this year) and filing by year end
- Launches of Percocet, Norco, Methotrexate, etc.
- Q1 earnings and CC
- Potential news with oxycodone hcl
Not sure if final facility approval for commercialization would be PR’d.
What else am I missing?
Brokerages down? Schwab says functionality will be impacted
Q1 earnings release to be expected on Aug 15th and call 4 weeks from today.
Been a long time since he has visited eltp
I see only 30K traded so far. That’s not a ceiling issue, it’s a demand/buying issue.
Nice to see close HOD
We need positive BE study before any filing (several months later).
I don’t think we see anything until October.
I think the wording for other CNS stimulants were used, which would be inclusive of Vyvanse. No market sizes were included to give greater weight and value add to Vyvanse vs dopamine agonist.
It’s certainly a great start. Years ago Nasrat said he’d be joining investor conferences when he had a couple products in hand, pre-SequestOx days. Since he isn’t going that route, the company needs some sort of non-paid external marketing publicity.
The full research isn’t awful, but more updating could have been done, especially if you provide initial coverage. I’m guessing any actual eyes on this just weren’t as familiar with the company as LT holders and that will come through in parts of the report.
Some aspects of report are weak, but I guess good for an OTC stock. I also assume this report was mostly AI generated or written by an unpaid intern. The reporting is better than nothing and will provide some incremental visibility.
There are multi-year visuals for rev growth EPS, etc. It’s not well done and looks like there was 0.00 share price for several years (digit issue). EBITDA chart isn’t updated with 2024 vs other charts. They speak about SequestOx front and center in the overview and mention EastWest loan, but not the payoff and replacement debt. They say it’s info as of 3/31/24 (recent 10K). Trimipramine also has 2 spelling errors in one word. Perhaps Speak N Spell didn’t have that word listed.
Reasons to buy: shift from licensing to direct sales, facility expansion, strong revenue growth and balance sheet, partnerships and R&D. All good points.
Risks:
ST CF constraints to fund working capital with $20M tied up in Inv & A/R. Lack of product diversity (but we know this is changing with pipeline) is listed twice, DEA quota risks, high inventory may be sign of inefficiencies in inv mgmt. Pricing risks in competitive market. Operational risks integrating new facility ask risk to revenue growth. Derivative liabilities from warrants remain on the books (not going away anytime soon) adds layer of risk and volatility. Risk of FDA delays hindering growth. All fair points.
Noted that Elite didn’t provide financial guidance for upcoming year (but does mention $70M rev target), but recent financials do suggest continued growth.
Talks of Burel & Pyros agreements and expectations that they will add revenue, but no mention of Vigabatrin launch of that there has been no hint of movement with Burel.
Recently acquired ANDAs were mentioned a couple of times.
Peers that have been given Outperform recommendation: Merck & Takeda. All others are neutral: Astellas, Chugai, Grifols, Sandoz, UCB SA & Zoetis. (Some of these I wouldn’t list as peers).
Financial metric comparison among few peers shown:
- Elite has highest EV/EBITDA, Price/Book, among highest for Price/Sales
- Lowest for Debt/Equity
- Current ratio is richest
- Highest Net Margin rates, ROE and sales/assets ratio
No price target provided, which is what I expected. Also, sell side reports always have fun and catchy titles of their equity reports based on recent financials. Nada, which sometimes can be the most enjoyable part of reading the report.
I’ve never seen it, but it doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist. Usually when a company delists from an exchange that’s reason enough to remove them. However, Elite is sort of a little gem where we’re heading the other direction. If they were 300M and growing fast - that might be reason to get on their radar, but price point and OTC are issues where larger investment firms won’t touch it. Elite is going to be a case study when this all plays out.
Or it could mean they filed first?
100% agree. Will check it full report later today. I wouldn’t even consider them being analysts but the coverage is a great start, especially for OTC.
I’m going to burst the bubble a little bit. Is it great to have Zack’s initiate this coverage? Absolutely? Will it lead to more eyes and more investors? Highly likely.
I would not say that Zack’s is a big respectable analyst firm. More of a C player. Having lived in the IR world, sell side analysts are who you want coverage from.
This article was good, but brief. Sell side analysts go in deep financial depth, project future share price ranges, risks, make recommendations for buy side, etc. The initial report was ok. Their negatives were questionable by someone who should know the company, but the additionally publicity is nice. It’s certainly a step in the right direction.
Why would you think this would be approved before the standard 10 months?
They can, but will they? I have a contact that is a multi-millionaire many times over and a big time stock investor that won’t shift to a new brokerage that allows him to buy ELTP.
I can’t tell if you are referring to goats or weed. lol
To debyhary
I’m guessing it was the audience. :)
2 of those will certainly be CC 8-Ks for Q1 & Q2 results and earnings calls.
lol I assumed the post was yours.
I highly doubt he paid $15M. We wouldn’t have had that much cash available to strike a deal around time slammer chose to part ways. Extremely unlikely.
We were ready to strike the deal when we had far less, but Lannett forced us to put that on the back burner. Now we have Prasco as a partner and I think Nasrat is moving the goal posts.
Like generic oxy approval level of greatness?
Not sure I’d use the word hammered when less than $100K in total value has exchanged hands.
Cuz it’s a lot easier than saying Je suis une douchebag.
Agree. Not sure it was premeditated unless he is trying to suppress for EE buy in.
Last CNS they are working on is likely Concerta. I think several generics were initially approved and then removed from market. Would be greater realistic marketshare potential for Elite than Vyvanse if they can get it to work.
Do you not understand why it’s down?
I think this strategy would work only because we are on the OTC. This is a horrible strategy if we were actually on an exchange and had analyst coverage. This is no way to build confidence and trust among current and future investors.