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Nearly all of NIA's stock recommendations follow the same pattern, they rise quickly on the hype and fall almost as quickly to the starting point, if not lower.
My first stock purchase based on their hype was USSIF. I held too long and sold it for large losses, long-term losses at that. Next was BVSN. I lost a little on that one too. Next came SYNC. This time I was a little wiser. I bought at less than $12 and sold above $16; I never considered buying again, although at less than $6 it might be worth a consideration. When you see their stock recommendations rise way above the top Bollinger band on the daily chart, take your profits and get out.
NIA says they are holding 486,035 shares. But are they? Do they have to be 100% truthful in their emails? They hang a lot on their disclaimer. In my opinion, any NIA recommendation becomes very risky after two or three months from their first pump.
It's a shame that stocks seem to get tainted when NIA is behind them... I wish you all the best.
Hey manatee, I do plan to re-enter and hold, but I trade when I see aberations in the charts.
It's hard to know when current events overrule technicals, but the technicals are winning over the Romney endorsement. You also have to recognize that ANR is heavily shorted and the shorts will do what they have to, to protect their turf. My opinion is we will see a pull-back to the low $7's, but I can't be sure. If you go back and look at the daily charts, today's activity is not unlike the two recent times ANR made a rapid assent above the top Bollinger band. It almost always pulls back. And that is the case for most any stock.
I like ANR and believe it to be a profitable long-term hold. But I will exit my position when I see things that don't look right.
I sold my position late yesterday at $8.39 for a tidy profit. These huge 1-day run-ups rarely hold. I'm looking for a pull-back today, but will not short it. I am looking at repurchasing around $7.50.
Alpha Natural Resources Announces Availability of Third Quarter 2012 Financial Results
Alpha Natural Resources (NYSE:ANR), a leading U.S. coal producer, plans to report its third quarter 2012 results before the market opens on Friday, November 2, 2012. A conference call to review the results and current business conditions is scheduled to follow at 10:00 a.m. EDT that morning.
The conference call will be webcast live on the Internet, and the webcast will be available for replay following the event. The live webcast and the replay will be available on the company's investor relations Web site at http://alnr.client.shareholder.com/. In addition, a telephonic replay will be available through November 16, 2012 by calling 877-660-6853 or 201-612-7415 and entering the conference ID 401767. Also, a podcast of the call will be available for downloading on the company's Web site following the call.
About Alpha Natural Resources
With $7.1 billion in total revenue in 2011, Alpha Natural Resources ranks as America's second-largest coal producer by revenue and third-largest by production. Alpha is the nation's largest supplier of metallurgical coal used in the steel-making process and is a major supplier of thermal coal to electric utilities and manufacturing industries. In 2011 the company had more than 200 customers on five continents. More information about Alpha can be found on the company's Web site at www.alphanr.com.
SOURCE Alpha Natural Resources
I'm right Nuke Neil. Keep watching!
Thanks pappy! It is a good day to be long and not adeezl. It will be good to be long for quite some time!
You are up nicely manatee! Congratulations! We are headed much further north as 51,000,000 shorts begin to try to cover. I for one do not intended to sell my 25,000 until we see $20.
Hope you were able to get out relatively unscathed. Looks like we are headed back to $9+.
Just picked up another 5,000 share block at $7.25. All indicators are pointing northward with an imminent short squeeze to follow.
ANR Short Interest
Alpha Natural Resources, inc.NYSE
You're in good company adweezl... Short interest is up another 20%, but I'd say there's no need to cover. It's only 25% of shares outstanding and 100% of the non-institutional owned shares. I don't know if the institutions loan their shares, but if not, then there's no more shares to loan.
Settlement Date Short Interest Avg Daily Share Volume Days To Cover
9/28/2012 50,907,554 20,918,910 2.433566
9/14/2012 42,579,790 28,050,484 1.517970
8/31/2012 42,455,651 17,443,067 2.433956
8/15/2012 35,125,051 20,732,637 1.694191
7/31/2012 28,262,287 17,427,938 1.621666
7/13/2012 22,671,309 14,457,708 1.568112
6/29/2012 20,235,568 13,382,637 1.512076
6/15/2012 20,284,850 15,048,610 1.347955
5/31/2012 17,161,508 14,523,773 1.181615
5/15/2012 17,398,587 13,939,254 1.248172
4/30/2012 19,862,442 13,217,016 1.502793
4/13/2012 18,886,405 16,675,354 1.132594
3/30/2012 17,290,912 11,567,117 1.494833
3/15/2012 15,656,472 12,642,223 1.238427
2/29/2012 13,278,138 12,210,142 1.087468
2/15/2012 10,254,348 12,001,172 1.000000
1/31/2012 10,042,206 10,144,260 1.000000
1/13/2012 9,723,504 7,762,931 1.252556
12/30/2011 7,632,784 6,765,864 1.128131
12/15/2011 9,300,999 9,366,208 1.000000
11/30/2011 10,058,073 9,936,781 1.012206
11/15/2011 11,369,001 10,704,908 1.062036
10/31/2011 12,109,435 9,477,586 1.277692
10/14/2011 12,194,863 11,439,358 1.066044
Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/anr/short-interest#ixzz28uKV8NAT
Just picked up 20,000 at $7.25!
Looks like I need to buy back in around $7.40 leaving $500 on the table.
Doesn't look like I'm going to get my 10,000 for $7.25.
Great post Dan!
Great news Bob!
Bought 10,000 this morning at $6.85; sold them at $7.35! Hoping for a pullback to $7.20 and will buy them back and sell them tomorrow around $8.00.
Please do your own DD before shorting this or any other coal stock. Natural gas is getting too expensive to generate electricity; its up 2% today. And with the Fed printing more funny money it will continue going up.
These observations are all from the daily chart...
Momentum is picking up, still in the red, but moving in our direction.
RSI is gaining strength, still under 50 but increasing.
Stochastics showing oversold.
Bollinger Bands are about as tight as you can get, meaning a breakout is imminent, and we're at the bottom of everything.
ANR is about to start moving up quickly again.
Thanks pappy! I didn't think about the short side and the VAST quantity of shares that have been shorted. I think I'll just add the additional dollars to my account and continue to ride this out.
I am becoming more convinced that our next president will reignite the coal industry.
I'm a little surprised ANR is up today given that Scottrade raised their margin requirement by 67%. They don't give any warning that they're changing margin requirements, except maybe to their friends.
I saw that only 1,100 shares were sold at $6.45 this morning. You must have had a small position to cover...?
adeezl, do you think the price is going to bottom at $6.30 - $6.40? Trading at $6.45 pre-market.
As I told my brother, they have a strong balance sheet and will be able to stay in business for quite sometime, even with low revenue and few contracts. Things are looking better for a change in the presidential administration and with that we should see more drilling, hence more work for DVR, in the Gulf of Mexico. I have loaded up at these prices!
Romney's "clean coal" comments will quickly drive the coal stocks up. ANR stands to benefit substantially as it is the most undervalued, currently selling at about 25% of book value. A Romney White House will see the economy improve by ending the drag of the current administration's policies. Hold on to your ANR, BTU and ACI. They will run up shortly.
Good stuff Bob. Thanks!
NYBob,
I took profits from $5.91 to 7.07 on 40,000 shares. Looking to buy back in below $7 now. However, I may have just missed my opportunity...
I bought more ANR and MHR looking for a pop, but they went down on me. Both are headed back up now and when I get in the profit area I'll sell some and repurchase AUQ if it stays near $7. I agree with your $14 figger!
Cal Dive International has the Lowest Price to Book Ratio in the Oil & Gas Equipment & Services Industry. Companies with the lowest ratio often present the greatest value to investors.
Cal Dive International's price to book ratio is 0.57.
Any ideas why the public doesn't like DVR? They think obummer gonna be re-elected and completely close down off-shore drilling?
Took another "Cal Dive" today.
I hope we see $7.50 again...
Going back in for another 25,000 here at $4.80.
I think we're going to see $7.50 again in the next couple days. I let my 25,000 shares go Friday at $8.73 and will reacquire at $7.70, if we see it...
BN,
I bought HL @ $4.10. Everyone knew they were undervalued. USGIF is still a guessing game.
-bug
Getting a nice bounce along with all the other Au/Ag miners. The bernanke didn't let us down!
Quite obvious that the bankers are playing with gold and silver prices today as they both should be up with the Europeans firing up the printing presses. And the bernanke won't be far behind...
Upped my holdings to 40,000. Looks like the bankers are trying to protect their precious fiat by driving gold, silver and commodities down. It won't work in the long run.
It's absolutely counter-intuitive that the Europeans announce they are going to print and the PMs fall...? The bernanke will do the same.
DrBill, Good to see you on AUQ!
Bought 20,000 yesterday and looks like a good double at $5.84. Unloaded most of my ANR at a substantial profit!!!
ANR looks to be headed south short-term again. Will look to pick back up sub $6.
DAD2, The reversal on the P&F is a good thing. $7 up from $5.28 marks a turning point in the chart's decline. It is a buy signal. Whether it goes higher or not is anyone's guess, but this indicates it could continue up.
$0.10 to a reversal on the P&F...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=ANR,PLTADANRBR[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G
So, are the prices going to hold? Are we headed back over $10? $20? $30?