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Hi all! Haven't been keeping up with Deaf Talk lately but spent 60 seconds or so reviewing news and posts and I think I am current again...unfortunately, LOL!
Face it, the only guys who are going to make money here are the people who advised these brainiacs to go public in the first place. I could be wrong and I hope I am but the financials speak for themselves.
According to the "notes" they haven't even selected an auditing firm yet.
fuller11, yes, you need the cash (or margin if that is available) to exercise the warrant. I would have advised talking to your broker before making the trade but if its already been done then you must have had the cash/margin available.
Your gain would be something less than the 80.37 you suggest because you will have a basis (or cost) associated with the old shares you used to own that became warrants. I think the easiest way to calc your basis in the warrants would be to figure out how much $$ you spent on the old stock and then divide that amount by the number of warrants you received.
Yes
Yes
Dave
That was too easy.
Jaxs, I came to the same conclusion awhile back. Either management is so completely stupid that they have no clue what they are doing public company wise (and is that the situation where you want to invest?) or they know EXACTLY what they are doing and are purposely withholding information until their lock up period ends and they can sell. Or, they figured out what a huge mistake they made and want to take the company private again, in which case they'd want cheap shares.
No matter what conclusion you draw, the situation here has become beyond absurd.
Bobby it's safe to say most posters on this board have asked Dave about the financials several times already and have received many different unfulfilled promises.
This whole thing is like a car ride where we are the kids in the back seat asking "are we there yet?" Problem is not only are our parents lost, it appears that they don't even know where we are going. So...I for one am not holding my breath waiting for arrival.
Understood. I don't have any specific details. Just speculation that if it turns out that this company is valued at $10, $20, $30 million dollars or more you'd really have to wonder what the motivation was behind the obscene delay in the release of company and financial information.
3 months, 6 months, okay, that time frame, while long, I could understand as being a newly public company learning the ropes. 9 months? Seriously? The delay starts to get suspicious. That's all I am saying.
Snigierburger, each state has it's own rules I believe regarding public companies so it's quite possible some state required disclosures have not been met.
Self dealing comes to mind as a possibility if the company drags out the release of information until their stock lock up period has expired or close to expiration. I think Jaxs is pointing to something along the lines of a breach in fiduciary responsibility for the board of directors.
I could be completely wrong with this line of thinking.
But I do think there are tons of attorneys who just live to dig up stuff like this.
Jax, if the company is truly worth more than the current 10 cents per share you can be sure that the line of attorneys clamoring to file a class action lawsuit against management will be very, very long. It's been almost 9 months. The argument can easily be made that they are purposely dragging their feet on the release of information just so they can get out of the lock up period before the price appreciates.
You gotta love the brainiac who buys 100 shares at 12 cents so the stock looks like its going up in price, lol!
No, unfortunately I sold my warrants thinking the stock would drop because bondholders would be selling the stock they received. That hasn't materialized yet. So I keep watching anyway.
fuller 11, thanks. I was just curious because many of your posts seem to agonize over the warrant prices and trading. The simple fact is that there aren't many of the warrants out there. So they will be thinly traded and the bid/ask spread will often be very wide. My advice if you want to continue holding the warrants is to stop looking at the warrant price and just look at the TROX price. Until TROX issues financials the stock price will also likely trade strangely and thin. Get used to it I guess or sell off and move on. I fear you're going to give yourself an ulcer watching the prices every day.
fuller11, I am curious. I assume you got the warrants because you previously owned Tronox common stock. What caused you to buy Tronox stock in the first place?
Elis - good find. You know, since we all keep looking for company/industry related news we may just stumble across a public company that is, shall we say, a bit more organized and perhaps even a better investment...
townscapes, yeah, you're right. You know, I don't know why I had board expectations at $20 million revs in the back of my mind. That can't possibly be correct.
mrholty I believe the restriction ends September 15. I think your main worry would be the 9 million or so shares that are from the prior shell, who knows how many of those are held by the former shell owners and are restricted but I would imagine half or more.
I really doubt management would start selling their shares as soon as they can unless (hack, cough, wheeze) the stock is at a dollar or so.
The other main concern I have is what happens to the stock price if annual sales aren't the $20 million everyone seems to be expecting or if profits aren't outstanding.
Is that 320,000 shares offered at 20 cents?
You know, that chart looks like a classic "waiting for $!&%#!* financials" pattern.
SDavis,
Tronox stock is trading publicly under the symbol (TROX).
fuller11, the warrant gives you the right to buy a share of stock at a fixed price, either 62.13 or 68.56 depending on which warrant. When you exercise your right to buy the stock you turn in your warrant and it gets cancelled.
You know Bobby, I don't think these guys are scam artists at all. If they were then all the pinksheets.com or pennystocks.com or whatever website you want to look at would have updated info. The scammers want the stock price to go up quickly so they can sell and move on to their next conquest.
No, my opinion here is that these guys are seriously honest and legit. Somebody sold these poor guys a bill of goods and I strongly suspect they have been regretting it ever since. They clearly had absolutely no idea what they were getting into. Their "audit" problem I doubt is with their records but rather the nonexistent records of the shell they bought. At least this is my guess. With no records the auditors will have to go as far back as they can to try to find some real records and then bring then up to date. An audit nightmare which no doubt is costing the company a lot of money.
So, naive yes, scammers no is my opinion.
I've been asleep since December 7...still hoping someone will send me a PM....someday....
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=57490268
I know for a fact that the Fitzgerald case was brought to the Tronox EC's attention. In fact, all of the documents on the docket were copied and posted on the internet quite some time ago. Didn't look like there was much there. Several have alluded to something big but none have provided further details.
fuller11, there's just not much volume in the warrants so you're going to see huge swings in the price and a wide bid/ask. I'd ignore the warrant pricing and just watch the TROX trading instead.
This press release is nice. I just wish we knew if they signed a 3 year contract for 1 unit or 5,000 units. Also, I am wondering out loud why release this type of info before releasing the financials in a couple days? Does this mean we won't see the financials in April....
R2g2 thanks. Question, did Dave say "very little debt?" I have been assuming zero debt.
In the event of a TROX sale I believe that the warrant agreement calls for the warrants to receive the difference between the sale price and the strike price of the warrant. I don't think the warrants have to be exercised to participate in the buyout proceeds.
Here you go, post 2743 has the Morgan Equity share structure at the time of the merger.
Guys I'd have to go back and dig up my notes but I've been using 46 million shares O/S whenever I am thinking of potential market cap etc. There were warrants in the shell and I think convertible debt if I remember correctly. So absent an explanation I've been assuming those would eventually turn into common stock.
I posted the old share structure from the shell. I'd have to go back and find that post.
Bobby, I agree with you. Just like no one wants to invest in a stock without actually seeing the company's financials...well, I guess some of us brainiacs took that blind leap didn't we?
Anyway, just throwing this out there and no personal offense intended by any means but your infatuation with the L2 confuses the shit out of me right now. It's all just noise. No one is trading this thing based on any possible estimate of valuation because frankly we are only guessing at their numbers. The chart support and resistance in my opinion is worthless right now and could change at any second when financials come out. Hell, we could be trading at a penny or a dollar after financials...who knows.
The fact that there hasn't been massive stock selling makes me wonder if there isn't some prearranged buyout lurking...
I just re-read my post and I meant to say that I DO get constructive replies back. This is very good. We'll get to dollarland someday here.
You know, this is really a good group here. We're all long I assume but when I throw out a post with thoughts or concerns that might mean the stock won't be a dollar tomorrow I don't get constructive replies back. It is rare that you can have an honest discussion on a board without being attacked for being either a cheerleader or overly negatative. This is a good group.
I hope the 3 to 4 works out ultimately but I fear that the same outfit who convinced management to do the RM also put unrealistic valuation techniques in their heads.
I believe they would tell you that in hindsight the RM was a mistake but that they feel it will still work out for everyone.
jaxs, good link. I am thinking that the 25% the owners must give up is the stock that is IPO'd. i.e. the owners would still keep those proceeds less costs.
I certainly am not pretending to know everything, that's for sure!
Hopefully my profit estimates are way low.
Townscapes, not a problem.
I am estimating $20 million in revenues
Profits, I really have no idea but $500,000 annually keeps appearing to me in a dream but sometimes it's $250,000.
Several things just don't "add up" for me about this company. One I've already mentioned is that they have no in-house CFO/accountant. But they could just farm the entire accounting work for the company to a third party. I can honestly say I've never seen a larger company do this but there's a first time for everything I guess.
The main reason I don't think they're super profitable (as you suggest) is the reverse merger itself. I know from talking to the company myself that one of the reasons they went the RM route instead of simply going public was that someone convinced them that it would be cheaper to do it that way, i.e. buy the shell of an existing public company. Now, I really don't know what the legal fees would be to become public from scratch but how much could it possibly be? $100,000? $200,000? $300,000? Anyone with an idea here? I'd like to know. Anyway, let's use $500,000 (seems super high to me) as the cost to go public from scratch so going with a RM is cheaper. Or is it? If they go public from scratch guess who owns 100% of the company? Correct, management owns it all and then would sell some of their shares to the public, probably via an IPO. But my point is that management gets to keep ALL of the value of their company either by keeping stock or getting the proceeds (less expenses of course) of the stock they IPO.
Now, lets look quickly at the RM. I think there is roughly 8 million shares in the "float" according to what we've been able to determine. Management doesn't own those shares. So if the stock's worth a dollar didn't management just piss away $8 million dollars? Heck, let's use a 25 cent stock price and they've still pissed away $2 million. There is no possible way the RM can be cheaper in my opinion.
Unless...they don't have the $500,000 (or insert your cost guess here) to go public from scratch and so they were willing to give up a chunk of the company (a really really large chunk) which costs them ZERO in cash up front to go public....hmmmm.
So...this is what leads me to believe that they don't make a million bazillion dollars a year or they would have just gone public from scratch instead of the RM.
So, there you have it, lol. My back of the envelope thoughts. Pretty sophisticated huh?
Townscapes, yeah, I am hoping the numbers show that this is worth well more than 10 cents. But, seriously, there is no way they have profits anywhere remotely close to $11 million annually. But if they do, boy o boy will I be one happy camper!!
fuller11 I still check out the board every now and again to see if there is anything new. As far as the stock prices goes no one will have the definitive answer for you. My only guess is that there are a ton of former bondholders who now own stock and either they can't or don't want to continue holding the equity. So, frankly, I am a bit surprised that the share price hasn't been dropping after they started trading again. I figured there'd be a lot of selling overhang.