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"Catching A Falling Knife"
Key support is .0715.
After that it's .0625.
If the Georgetown news doesn't garner some attention, tomorrow won't be a good day for those who bought shares the last two days.
I don't think one share was traded above a dime.
I guess I missed it.
Gold miners struggle to shine in investors’ eyes
James Wilson, Mining Correspondent
Randgold, one of only two gold miners whose shares outperformed the bullion price during gold’s bull run, is talking about acquisition options
Gold miners are hoping that the four-year low in the precious metal’s price, recorded in November, marked the end of a torrid period for the industry – and that the outlook will be brighter in 2015.
But many investors in gold fear the miners are still placing too much faith in a cyclical recovery and not making structural changes to put the sector on a stronger footing.
In 2013, gold suffered its first “down” year in more than a decade, trading above $1,650 in January and ending the year at just over $1,200. For most of 2014, the price remained in a range between $1,200 and $1,300, recovering from lows of $1,132 two months ago to close at the end of the year at $1,206.
For the mining groups, this period of price falls resulted in billions of dollars of asset writedowns, large annual losses and urgent cost cutting. Nevertheless, some investors continue to express frustration that the companies have not made more drastic changes, such as cutting more mines or seeking mergers.
Gold miners have already lowered their calculated reserves – the ore that they consider economically viable to mine – in response to the price falls. But many reserves are still unprofitable at recent spot prices, according to Catherine Raw, portfolio manager at BlackRock Natural Resources.
“This is a huge challenge?.?.?.?Until the industry accepts this, it is not going to attract investment,” she told the Mines and Money conference in London last month. “We need to start seeing some really painful decisions being made.”
Ms Raw suggests some of the miners’ restructuring efforts to date have been less than might meet the eye. For example, while overall costs for the largest North American gold miners have sunk since 2011, this has happened because of cuts to exploration budgets and lower “sustaining” capital expenditure.
Operating costs and back-office administration costs have actually risen, she says.
Another bugbear is the state of gold miners’ balance sheets, following an aggregate $70bn of borrowing over the past decade to fund projects and deals. Falls in the gold price have cut the companies’ cash flows and made it more difficult for them to pay down their debt.
Some companies “have so much debt that they cannot manoeuvre to take advantage of the low valuations”, suggests Joe Foster, portfolio manager of Van Eck Gold Funds.
Larger mining groups have entertained the idea of restructuring to relieve some of their debt burdens. AngloGold unveiled a debt reduction plan involving a $2.1bn rights issue and demerger, but investors shot the idea down within days because of the dilution of their holdings.
Barrick Gold, the Canadian miner, has sold some smaller mines and, in 2013, raised equity to pay down debt. It also considered a merger with Newmont Mining of the US – including a spin-off of international assets – but negotiations broke down amid acrimony in April.
Whether the larger mining groups have to revisit such plans in 2015, or sell more choice assets, is likely to depend on whether gold sinks far below its current “floor” level of about $1,200 an ounce, analysts suggest.
However, smaller companies, some of which own just one asset, have little room for manoeuvre, as they cannot spread their back office costs across several mines.
George Ogilvie, chief executive of Kirkland Lake, a Canadian miner, says: “I think we are going to see more M&A activity?.?.?.?Investors will start demanding that companies start consolidating.”
According to Mr Foster, disposals by large companies and deals by some of the more robust mid-cap miners mean that the “shape of the industry will change”. Some of the more successful mid-caps, including London-listed Randgold Resources – one of only two gold miners whose shares outperformed the bullion price during gold’s bull run, according to Investec – are now talking about acquisition options."Until the industry accepts [that many reserves are unprofitable at recent spot prices], it is not going to attract investment. We need to start seeing some really painful decisions being made"
- Catherine Raw, BlackRock Natural Resources
Joe Wickwire, manager of the Fidelity Advisor Gold Fund, says consolidation is inevitable. “The industry is going to get smaller,” he argues. “There are assets out there that are probably better served in someone else’s hands.”
One factor in the gold miners’ favour is that the price fall means they are now a more leveraged play on the performance of the metal, and so could outperform bullion if the market does rise.
But investors, having put up $86bn in fresh equity capital since 2002, based on Investec’s calculations, have been burnt by poor returns from the sector.
Over the past two years, the combined market capitalisation of global gold miners has fallen from a peak of about $260bn to $80bn, the broker estimates. As a result, while the price of bullion has fallen 30 per cent over the period, the FTSE Gold Mines index is down nearly twice that amount.
Evy Hambro, chief investment officer of the equity team of BlackRock Natural Resources, says the mining companies will have to work hard to change investor perceptions.
“You are going to need to be persuading investors to sell their shares in Microsoft or Apple to be able to help you finance your way out of trouble,” he told the Mines and Money conference. “That is a major challenge for the industry.”
Gold miners struggle to shine in investors’ eyes
James Wilson, Mining Correspondent
Randgold, one of only two gold miners whose shares outperformed the bullion price during gold’s bull run, is talking about acquisition options
Gold miners are hoping that the four-year low in the precious metal’s price, recorded in November, marked the end of a torrid period for the industry – and that the outlook will be brighter in 2015.
But many investors in gold fear the miners are still placing too much faith in a cyclical recovery and not making structural changes to put the sector on a stronger footing.
In 2013, gold suffered its first “down” year in more than a decade, trading above $1,650 in January and ending the year at just over $1,200. For most of 2014, the price remained in a range between $1,200 and $1,300, recovering from lows of $1,132 two months ago to close at the end of the year at $1,206.
For the mining groups, this period of price falls resulted in billions of dollars of asset writedowns, large annual losses and urgent cost cutting. Nevertheless, some investors continue to express frustration that the companies have not made more drastic changes, such as cutting more mines or seeking mergers.
Gold miners have already lowered their calculated reserves – the ore that they consider economically viable to mine – in response to the price falls. But many reserves are still unprofitable at recent spot prices, according to Catherine Raw, portfolio manager at BlackRock Natural Resources.
“This is a huge challenge?.?.?.?Until the industry accepts this, it is not going to attract investment,” she told the Mines and Money conference in London last month. “We need to start seeing some really painful decisions being made.”
Ms Raw suggests some of the miners’ restructuring efforts to date have been less than might meet the eye. For example, while overall costs for the largest North American gold miners have sunk since 2011, this has happened because of cuts to exploration budgets and lower “sustaining” capital expenditure.
Operating costs and back-office administration costs have actually risen, she says.
Another bugbear is the state of gold miners’ balance sheets, following an aggregate $70bn of borrowing over the past decade to fund projects and deals. Falls in the gold price have cut the companies’ cash flows and made it more difficult for them to pay down their debt.
Some companies “have so much debt that they cannot manoeuvre to take advantage of the low valuations”, suggests Joe Foster, portfolio manager of Van Eck Gold Funds.
Larger mining groups have entertained the idea of restructuring to relieve some of their debt burdens. AngloGold unveiled a debt reduction plan involving a $2.1bn rights issue and demerger, but investors shot the idea down within days because of the dilution of their holdings.
Barrick Gold, the Canadian miner, has sold some smaller mines and, in 2013, raised equity to pay down debt. It also considered a merger with Newmont Mining of the US – including a spin-off of international assets – but negotiations broke down amid acrimony in April.
Whether the larger mining groups have to revisit such plans in 2015, or sell more choice assets, is likely to depend on whether gold sinks far below its current “floor” level of about $1,200 an ounce, analysts suggest.
However, smaller companies, some of which own just one asset, have little room for manoeuvre, as they cannot spread their back office costs across several mines.
George Ogilvie, chief executive of Kirkland Lake, a Canadian miner, says: “I think we are going to see more M&A activity?.?.?.?Investors will start demanding that companies start consolidating.”
According to Mr Foster, disposals by large companies and deals by some of the more robust mid-cap miners mean that the “shape of the industry will change”. Some of the more successful mid-caps, including London-listed Randgold Resources – one of only two gold miners whose shares outperformed the bullion price during gold’s bull run, according to Investec – are now talking about acquisition options."Until the industry accepts [that many reserves are unprofitable at recent spot prices], it is not going to attract investment. We need to start seeing some really painful decisions being made"
- Catherine Raw, BlackRock Natural Resources
Joe Wickwire, manager of the Fidelity Advisor Gold Fund, says consolidation is inevitable. “The industry is going to get smaller,” he argues. “There are assets out there that are probably better served in someone else’s hands.”
One factor in the gold miners’ favour is that the price fall means they are now a more leveraged play on the performance of the metal, and so could outperform bullion if the market does rise.
But investors, having put up $86bn in fresh equity capital since 2002, based on Investec’s calculations, have been burnt by poor returns from the sector.
Over the past two years, the combined market capitalisation of global gold miners has fallen from a peak of about $260bn to $80bn, the broker estimates. As a result, while the price of bullion has fallen 30 per cent over the period, the FTSE Gold Mines index is down nearly twice that amount.
Evy Hambro, chief investment officer of the equity team of BlackRock Natural Resources, says the mining companies will have to work hard to change investor perceptions.
“You are going to need to be persuading investors to sell their shares in Microsoft or Apple to be able to help you finance your way out of trouble,” he told the Mines and Money conference. “That is a major challenge for the industry.”
Gold miners struggle to shine in investors’ eyes
James Wilson, Mining Correspondent
Workers use shovels to clear mud from an access way to the Yalea gold mine operated by Randgold Resources Ltd. in Loulo, Mali, on Thursday, Oct. 31, 2013. Randgold Resources Ltd., a producer of the precious metal in Africa, said there are opportunities to acquire mines on the continent as the biggest companies in the industry scale back operations in the face of lower prices. Photographer: Simon Dawson/Bloomberg©Bloomberg
Randgold, one of only two gold miners whose shares outperformed the bullion price during gold’s bull run, is talking about acquisition options
Gold miners are hoping that the four-year low in the precious metal’s price, recorded in November, marked the end of a torrid period for the industry – and that the outlook will be brighter in 2015.
But many investors in gold fear the miners are still placing too much faith in a cyclical recovery and not making structural changes to put the sector on a stronger footing.
In 2013, gold suffered its first “down” year in more than a decade, trading above $1,650 in January and ending the year at just over $1,200. For most of 2014, the price remained in a range between $1,200 and $1,300, recovering from lows of $1,132 two months ago to close at the end of the year at $1,206.
For the mining groups, this period of price falls resulted in billions of dollars of asset writedowns, large annual losses and urgent cost cutting. Nevertheless, some investors continue to express frustration that the companies have not made more drastic changes, such as cutting more mines or seeking mergers.
Gold miners have already lowered their calculated reserves – the ore that they consider economically viable to mine – in response to the price falls. But many reserves are still unprofitable at recent spot prices, according to Catherine Raw, portfolio manager at BlackRock Natural Resources.
“This is a huge challenge?.?.?.?Until the industry accepts this, it is not going to attract investment,” she told the Mines and Money conference in London last month. “We need to start seeing some really painful decisions being made.”
Ms Raw suggests some of the miners’ restructuring efforts to date have been less than might meet the eye. For example, while overall costs for the largest North American gold miners have sunk since 2011, this has happened because of cuts to exploration budgets and lower “sustaining” capital expenditure.
Operating costs and back-office administration costs have actually risen, she says.
Another bugbear is the state of gold miners’ balance sheets, following an aggregate $70bn of borrowing over the past decade to fund projects and deals. Falls in the gold price have cut the companies’ cash flows and made it more difficult for them to pay down their debt.
Some companies “have so much debt that they cannot manoeuvre to take advantage of the low valuations”, suggests Joe Foster, portfolio manager of Van Eck Gold Funds.
Larger mining groups have entertained the idea of restructuring to relieve some of their debt burdens. AngloGold unveiled a debt reduction plan involving a $2.1bn rights issue and demerger, but investors shot the idea down within days because of the dilution of their holdings.
Barrick Gold, the Canadian miner, has sold some smaller mines and, in 2013, raised equity to pay down debt. It also considered a merger with Newmont Mining of the US – including a spin-off of international assets – but negotiations broke down amid acrimony in April.
Whether the larger mining groups have to revisit such plans in 2015, or sell more choice assets, is likely to depend on whether gold sinks far below its current “floor” level of about $1,200 an ounce, analysts suggest.
However, smaller companies, some of which own just one asset, have little room for manoeuvre, as they cannot spread their back office costs across several mines.
George Ogilvie, chief executive of Kirkland Lake, a Canadian miner, says: “I think we are going to see more M&A activity?.?.?.?Investors will start demanding that companies start consolidating.”
According to Mr Foster, disposals by large companies and deals by some of the more robust mid-cap miners mean that the “shape of the industry will change”. Some of the more successful mid-caps, including London-listed Randgold Resources – one of only two gold miners whose shares outperformed the bullion price during gold’s bull run, according to Investec – are now talking about acquisition options."Until the industry accepts [that many reserves are unprofitable at recent spot prices], it is not going to attract investment. We need to start seeing some really painful decisions being made"
- Catherine Raw, BlackRock Natural Resources
Joe Wickwire, manager of the Fidelity Advisor Gold Fund, says consolidation is inevitable. “The industry is going to get smaller,” he argues. “There are assets out there that are probably better served in someone else’s hands.”
One factor in the gold miners’ favour is that the price fall means they are now a more leveraged play on the performance of the metal, and so could outperform bullion if the market does rise.
But investors, having put up $86bn in fresh equity capital since 2002, based on Investec’s calculations, have been burnt by poor returns from the sector.
Over the past two years, the combined market capitalisation of global gold miners has fallen from a peak of about $260bn to $80bn, the broker estimates. As a result, while the price of bullion has fallen 30 per cent over the period, the FTSE Gold Mines index is down nearly twice that amount.
Evy Hambro, chief investment officer of the equity team of BlackRock Natural Resources, says the mining companies will have to work hard to change investor perceptions.
“You are going to need to be persuading investors to sell their shares in Microsoft or Apple to be able to help you finance your way out of trouble,” he told the Mines and Money conference. “That is a major challenge for the industry.”
"Gold miners struggle to shine in investors’ eyes"
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e88af396-8140-11e4-b956-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3OWi45jDI
It appears that the company's only source of funding that is known at this time is Lincoln Park Capital's obligation for an additional $17.5M.
The original agreement required L.P.C. to purchase shares based on the closing price over a specific number of trading sessions. However I expect the terms of the original agreement will be changed so that the market price will be irrelevant to the price at which the company sells them shares.
In recent months L.P.C. has had several agreements with other companies that were similar to the one it has with Amarantus changed to allow shares to be purchased without regards to the market price. That is their modus operandi.
I expect Gerald will need to raise about $35M in 2015. The current number of shares "in-play" is in the neighborhood of 1.3B which gives Gerald about 700M shares to raise the $35M going forward.
Interesting weeks ahead.
"Gold miners struggle to shine in investors’ eyes"
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e88af396-8140-11e4-b956-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3OWi45jDI
"Gold miners struggle to shine in investors’ eyes"
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e88af396-8140-11e4-b956-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3OWi45jDI
My opinion is that no one knows where the price of gold will end the year. It could be above $1,300 or it could be below $1,0000. Traders make money by creating volatility in the market.
We did not see capitulation in the gold market in 2014. I think we'll see it this year and gold will bottom in the $900 range before starting a long term trend to above $2,000 within five years.
The last time oil was at $40 gold was at $400.
p.s. If anyone knew for certain what the price of gold would be at the end of the year they wouldn't be spending time posting on stock boards.
What are your thoughts on the trading range of gold until the end of the year?
I thought this was noteworthy:
"All of the Company’s existing product candidates are in various stages of development and will require extensive additional preclinical and clinical evaluation, regulatory review and approval, significant marketing efforts and substantial investment before they could provide the Company with any revenue. As a result, if Amarantus does not successfully develop, achieve regulatory approval, and commercialize the LymPro Test, Eltoprazine and/or MANF,it will be unable to generate any revenue for many years,if at all.'
"The Company does not anticipate that it will generate revenue for several years, at the earliest, or that it will achieve profitability for at least several years after generating material revenue, if at all."
"If the company is unable to generate revenue, Amarantus will not become profitable,and may be unable to continue its operations."
I think the company will need to raise a minimum of $35,000,000 in 2015 to fund operations considering the E.S.S. acquisition and the starting of trials for the various products in the pipeline.
The company's operating loss in the third quarter of 2014 was approximately $4.5M and I expect it will increase substantially quarter over quarter moving ahead.
Based on my calculations Gerald still has about 650,000,000 shares available to sell to raise cash.
Interesting year ahead.
p.s. Did you really think the company's operating loss was over $4.5M in the third quarter before you actually saw the filing? I didn't.
I wouldn't be surprised to see gold at $900 before $1,300 even though it's currently closer to $1,300 than $900.
I think the traders will bottom it sooner than expected but I don't think anyone knows for certain.
Interesting months ahead.
If Lincoln Park Capital is Gerald's only source of cash for the E.S.S. acquisition and operating funds I think the share price is going to drop to the .05-.055 range before the end of the month.
L.P.C. can buy as low as four cents but I don't think L.P.C. would want the share price much below a nickel.
Interesting weeks ahead.
.06's are quite possible this week.
Competition will do that.
The last time oil was at $40.00 gold was at $400.
Expecting traders to take gold substantially lower over the next 3-4 months.
The first of several competitors for LymPro assuming the LymPro S & S numbers are comparable which wasn't the case in the previous data.
Instead of LymPro being priced at $1,000 possibly $100 is more realistic now. Competition does that.
For those of you who think the share price can't go back below a nickel, think again.
Interesting day tomorrow.
I never said there were approximately 1.3 billion shares "issued, converted and outstanding". I said there were approximately 1.3 billion shares "in play".
Take the current number of outstanding shares, add in the 154 M shares allocated for the 2014 Stock Plan, the 140M shares at a minimum for the ESS acquisition, shares needed to cover the outstanding warrants and options and it is in the 1.3 billion range plus add in the continual dilution to raise cash to fund operations in general.
Ending the year with 1.7-1.8 billion shares "in play" seems quite reasonable.
p.s. Don't worry about Gerald running out of cash. He can increase the number of authorized shares any time he wants.
"ESS being worth .21/share". LOL!!!
With about 1.3 billion shares currently in-play that would value the E.S.S. acquisition at about $270,000,000 based on your assumption.
How much did AMBS pay for E.S.S.?
In any case the assumption that the company can acquire a previously discarded asset and the value then increases by 10 or 100 fold because Gerald and his team can magically unlock hidden value is a bit of a reach until it actually happens or doesn't.
p.s. Why not $1.00/share since there is no factual base for arriving at such a value. $5.00 share and the company could possibly avoid a 1:100 reverse split to up-list.
I'd be selling gold here and putting the money into energy stocks which I think are substantially oversold.
The stronger dollar will also impact gold in a negative manner especially as the Fed raises rates.
I don't expect gold to go much below $1,050. No one knows for certain where it will bottom.
The share price will be in the .07's before the end of the month.
Bet on it.
Gold to $1,000 in three months?
"Fed's Mester sees rate rise in next six months: Fox TV"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-mester-sees-rate-rise-154844198.html
Gold to $1,000 in three months?
"Fed's Mester sees rate rise in next six months: Fox TV"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-mester-sees-rate-rise-154844198.html
Soon it will love six cents.
That smell is the ink on the millions of additional shares that will soon be printed to raise cash for the ESS acquisition and to cover the 1.5-2.0M/month in operating losses.
I expect AMBS will end 2015 with over 1.8 billion shares "In-play" based on the current share structure.
Personally I think the company needs to bring in an industry veteran as C.O.O.
Let Gerald remain as Chairman of the Board and C.E.O.
Just saying!!!
If you want to pay .08 for .06 shares then that is your choice. I've decided not to.
Too many unknowns to give a meaningful answer. It would depend on the ratio of the new shares to the old shares and what news has been announced between now and the reverse split announcement.
I'm waiting to see the "final" LymPro data and also to see how Gerald finances the ESS acquisition before making a buying decision.
The company's operating loss was over $4.5M for the third quarter and I expect it will continue to increase substantially over the next 12-18 months.
Currently the only "known" source of funds is through Gerald selling more shares either to L.P.C. or some other investment group such as International Infusion.
Without another source of funding the dilution will only increase.
I expect the reverse split and up-listing announcement will happen before the end of the month.
Common sense says to do it as soon as possible. If the catalyst are there then there's no logical reason to delay doing so.
If Gerald actually intends to spin-off the diagnostics division as a new company doesn't it make more sense to do so with AMBS already trading on the NASDAQ and have the new company begin trading on the NASDAQ than to have two penny stock companies trading on the O.T.C. with each of them facing a reverse split to up-list?
Interesting weeks ahead.
Purchased my first shares this week. A friend of mine who lives here in SoCal knows several prominent individuals in the tech industry who are associated with the company. He believes .25-.50 is possible this year so I took a small position.
Sometimes "stock tips" payoff and sometimes they don't.
The downside is four cents and the upside could be a profit of 500% or more.
Best of luck to anyone buying here.
p.s. Expecting major news soon.
It depends on what institutional investors Gerald has lined up to purchase the stock once it makes the move to the NASDAQ.
Gerald has claimed that he had financing and investors lined up for a previous planned up-listing but the D.T.C. chill order scuttled those plans.
Gerald's Next Major Announcement?
Expect Gerald to announce 1:100 reverse split and up-listing to the NASDAQ. Expecting the announcement on or about 1/15/2015.
Anticipating that AMBS starts trading on the NASDAQ in the $6.50 - $7.00 range.
This is Gerald's most logical move at this point in time. It's exactly what I would do.
p.s. Best wishes for a "Happy and Prosperous New Year" to everyone. Let's hope 2015 is a better year for AMBS with the share price ending the year higher than it begins.
I'm still expecting gold to bottom in the $1,050 range at some point in 1Q2015 with $JDST hitting $40+.
"Patience is a virtue".
p.s. If I knew for certain where the price of gold would be in three months I wouldn't be wasting my time posting here. :)
All the talk about "financial engineering" is some what humorous.
A simplified explanation of "financial engineering" as it applies to a penny bio-tech stock such as AMBS is being able to convince someone to buy millions or billions of shares which generates enough cash to keep the company operating until other sources of revenue are created.
I expect the company will eventually become self-substaining in regards to funding operations. The question is when will that happen and how much additional financing with the accompanying dilution will occur before it happens.
I don't think even Gerald knows the answer.
Anyone care to guess what the closing price will be on December 31?
I'm thinking .076 which means the share price is virtually the same or lower than it was one year ago which means that anyone who held AMBS shares over the last twelve months made zero profit.
Also I expect anyone can purchase shares on January 2,2015 at or below the price of a year ago.
Sometimes it pays to be a long term shareholder and then there are times when it doesn't.
Just saying!!!
Additional dilution to raise cash for the ESS acquisition takes it to .06 or lower.
Unfortunately the continued dilution doesn't show on the chart.
Cheaper shares are a virtual certainty.
Gerald will get the cash he needs and the only place to get it is by selling shares.
I think Gerald still has about 650,000,000 shares available to sell.
"Patience is a virtue."
p.s. 1:100 reverse split to up-list still appears to be the most likely scenario in 2H2015.
Gold To $1,000 in the next four months?
"Gold To $1,000?"
"Gold To $1,000?"