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Hell...The gap will be big...Look at the US futures..The DOW is at this stage up 120 points...I'm saying it will no doubt gap then work it's way down..IMHO.
If sentiment takes over then the I will sell the DOW at 10320.Bear in mind that when Sept 11th hit it gapped down hard and recovered back up....I'd say this is the same but in reverse....I t will gap up and depending how many mums & dads get excited that's what will determine the action for the rest of the day
C'mon Andy & Simon...I've $50 each way
G'Day all,
TG.....WHo was the lucky winner of the camera?.......Tex....Cheers to a drink.....Drathur...NCP call is on the money....
As a trader sometimes you lose on some big moves especially if one such as Saddams arrest comes in but,of course on the flip side when some punk called bin laden strikes you thank your lucky stars that you are holding overnight.Investors got to win this week but unfortunately if you chartists do a check it should of created some big gaps to fill on some stocks and eventually they are all fillled at sometime or another.
Just on Saddam,if the world is lucky enough for him to recieve the death sentence a room full of nerve gas....payback....IMHO.
so the rates have lifted and the government hit the panick button.......
G''day all and hello from my new home town of QLD.A vast improvment from the hurly burly of NSW I must say.
The market is not content but as with the US we are heading into an election year so the plunge protection team will try their best of heading off any downfall.The aussie $ still charges like a bull at the gate but is now due for a rest as is the precious yellow metal.
As for the rise in rates I must say well done to the RBA but I feel that the pressure applied by the government,building and retail sectors has forced them to put on the brakes for any rise in January however at least the small .5% has had the desired effect on housing which was part their aim.
But in saying further rises are inevitable and indeed neccesary if we are any chance of keeping people from losing all that they have worked hard for and it may even knock some sense in to those who believe that for some magical reason they can live on vast credit limits whilst massing great amounts of untold wealth all without saving a dollar.
Be it now or later a time will come when the actions in late 2003 of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)will be reconised as ones of attempted saviour but what is unknown is will it be a case of to little to late.The sad reality to this is for those who felt the pinch with the first .25% rise.I mean for some to come out and say that it's un fair to raise the rates because it means we have to find an extra $50 a month.
There begs the question:
Should some who finds it hard to find an extra $12.50 per week to pay of their morgage ever had a morgage in the first place?
Hip,hip hooray....Johnny says...hey there my voting public,no need to concern yourself with a rate rise.it's only a small one and they won't do it again.They can't do it...I have an election coming up and my chances of getting back in are there hands....Meanwhile the arrogant assasin says don't worry John if they raise the rates I've got a plan,actually I borrowed it from Bush & Greenspan.We can give them all a tax cut,hehehehe.That'll keep them happy and get you back in........Wait on Peter ,a tax cut...that won't cover the extra money they need to cover the morgage payments....Who cares John,by the time they work that out you'll be back in.....Great stuff Pete,There could be a PM's job in it for ya'..........
That was part of my post from 11/5/2003....Yesterday the financial talk was after some chief(economist) came out with a statement saying that the government budget surplus will be close to double the previous forcast leaving John& Peter with plenty to buy some extra votes via tax cuts.Costello denies that action but,we know better that ,don't we?
2 big problems are this.If Joe Average ends up with an extra $30 in his pocket will he spend it on a carton of pay extra off his debt?My guess is the first option or at the least he would rack more credit because all of a sudden he has more in the pay packet to pay off the higher credit card payments,yep debt has never been so good?.
Now for the 2nd problem.If the man goes for the extra credit route then what,would this not negate what the RBA are trying to do by lifting rates.If they can't stop the credit rush then it will only have 1 choice,raise the rates again & again &again , until the public starts to go back to the old way of doing things,remember hard work and savings?
I was speaking to A few agents on the weekend and indeed attended a few auctions.My question to both agents was along the lines "Good crowd in today,you think there are many buyers" his reply was "mate,weve got 4 so far" well I then said "well you can count me in but I'd think the interest rate will have an effect"..His opinion was"Yeah ,you should see the price go hard as more people wan't in and then lock in the rate"..
At this stage he was in full sales mode and sweating hard.The Auction then proceeded with a starting bid of 510k.then another at 520k then,then....nothing.Not a craker ,the agents then came over working the bull and circling the 2 other opponents.Then auctioneer then put in a performance worthy of an academy award,He tried it all jokes,charm and the the ultimate disgrace ,a vendors bid of 550k.
Of course the property was passed in and and the reserve was 550,000.It is now in negotiation for the sum of $531,000.
On leaving the agent commented as he passed his card".. that a few buyers had pulled out as they had purchased elsewwhere." and asked me "..if I was interested to give hime a call.". I told him I'll wait untill at least 10% gets knocked off .
Funny thing I thought as I was driving home.There must of been a rash of last minute buyers for all of the other auctions that got passed in.Well I'm sure thats what agents around the country are telling people.
optimist....
I think the answer to your question has already been answered.The market started last week when all and sundry spat the dummy at the rate rise.Let's not get carried away by what any institutional firm says,I'm mean they are in with their agenda after all.
Much better to find out what those legends are doing,you know the buffets and soros' of the world.Did you know that for the first time in his investing life Warren Buffet is buying Overseas currency and considering his age thats a fairly big indication on his thoughts of the $US.
The plunge protection team are going to have to come up with some more big money to keep this rally going and I have every faith that they will,however it isn't going to be and easy task because frankly this rally is now running on fumes and its in desperate search of a petrol station.
Be that as it may plenty of sideways action is still to come and for the quick plenty of thrills ahead.Overall I see this as a great oppurtunity to sharpen your shorting skills and study up on your market history whilst practicing and refining your T/A skills.
Good charts can be found at bigcharts.com & stockcharts.com.Stockcharts give you the bounus of having the education to go with it.Remember that anybody can read a chart but only a few will act on it when the decision point comes up.BE DECISIVE,ACT WITHOUT EMOTION ,DON'T HOLD A LOSING POSITION.
Oh yeah ...good luck
NewsFinder
MARKETWATCH NEWS NEWS SERVICES PRESS RELEASES MARKET ADVISERS NEWS SEARCH
3:12pm 11/07/03
U.S. Sept. consumer credit up $15.2 billion By Rex Nutting
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Consumer credit in the United States rose $15.2 billion, or at a 9.7 percent annual pace, in September, the Federal Reserve said Friday. It's the largest gain since January. Most of the increase was in nonrevolving debt, such as auto loans, which rose $12.1 billion. Revolving credit, such as credit cards, rose $3 billion. Credit increased at a 6.4 percent annual pace in the third quarter.
Roll on the DEBT train
#####ANDY...IF YOU HAVE MAILED ME IN THE PAST 24 HRS PLEASE BE AWARE THAT MY SERVICE PROVIDER(iPrimus) HAS A FAULT WITH THEIR SERVER.NOT RECIEVING ANY EMAILS.WILL GET TO YOU WHEN BACK ON.APOLOGIES BOARD.
Pauline Hanson freed...Tex and LC will be holding a welcome home party....Paulines sister just interviewed and said to the reporter that she is angry that her sister spent 11 weeks in custody and said please explain,,LOL.
NAB will more than likely bounce off that 29.60 ,but cheap as chips...mmmm.Put it this way,the banks have had their day as amulti-mega earning machine.The rates are going to rise further and that spells trouble.Bankruptcy,loan defaults etc,etc.Not to mention this branching out into funds management.At least CBA bought a decent company(Colonial)but buying AMP,sorry something is on the nose with that decision.
Anyway xw yes,I'm still holding shorts on ANZ,CBA and exited from NAB today.Next short in the scope BHP.Still long on the $$ and gold index.MIG might get a bounce and AXA is looking shaky.Thats a good short when it goes under $2.78.Twice its hit 2.80 and bounced,All 3 Indicators are almost completed,volume picking up.Just a matter of time.
Absolutely,the whole market is a punt.It's just that if you plce a bet on LOOK filling the gap you would say that the odds are higher against you than say the Aussie dollar going up.That's my spin,Would you take a bet if the chances are 80/20 for you or a bet that gives you a 50/50 chance?LOK could always be bought out for the cash and set up but that is the wishing and hoping part,anyway I hope it does get accquired and for a hefty price.
Yes it is a good signal and one that I like to see but I play the safe side and wait for a confirmation and for all "3 indicators to turn up.That in mind there is a gap to fill but just remember this.Plenty of stocks have dropped and created a gap only to go on to be a distant memory...HIH,PAS...but thats your call and so long as there's life, there's hope .For me though it's Seems more like hoping and wishing,a bet if you like and there are plenty with much better odds than LOK.
Hip,hip hooray....Johnny says...hey there my voting public,no need to concern yourself with a rate rise.it's only a small one and they won't do it again.They can't do it...I have an election coming up and my chances of getting back in are there hands....Meanwhile the arrogant assasin says don't worry John if they raise the rates I've got a plan,actually I borrowed it from Bush & Greenspan.We can give them all a tax cut,hehehehe.That'll keep them happy and get you back in........Wait on Peter ,a tax cut...that won't cover the extra money they need to cover the morgage payments....Who cares John,by the time they work that out you'll be back in.....Great stuff Pete,There could be a PM's job in it for ya'..........
Good morning all.This conclusion is not that far fetched if infact I would say that it'll be the scenario and you only have to look back at the US and see the absurd amounts of cash that Bush has thrown at the economy to keep it afloat.I read of a turn around of surplus to deficit in the order of $700 billion dollars...That means that He has spent a vast amount of cash to keep his job...In the words of Mr Buffett"Give me a trillion dollars and I'll show you a good time,
too," .
Sure he had to do something but the something that he did was excessive.What does he do know?.Hope like hell that he can throw another $700 bil to keep the economy afloat,lower the rates further?And what of us here .The RBA are saying we are trying to slow the credit bubble but the US keep lowering their rates and our $ is rising as a consequence which in turn is hurting our exporters and US earning companies.
No,sorry. Until the credit bubble has popped and people go back to a regular savings pattern not a lot you can do expect ridding yourself of the extra and unwanted debt and saving as much as you can for the expected oppurtunities for the inevitable collapse.Don't forget about the gold oppurtunity.It is a case of commodoties to rule the markets.Take a lokk around and you maybe surprised .
BTW...I'm not a liberal hater but they happen to be the government of the day..If any other political party held office they too would be doing the same thing..After all they are only concerened about their own skin.
NCP should lead the market up this afternoon Current price 12.89.
Good earnings report and the US are poised for a rise with the Cisco earnings.
With the market 'down' nearly 30 ponits, some feel that it is an 'over reaction' to the interest rate rise....LC
I must say that I'm not surprised in the markets reaction,whether it be over done or not.Tim Costello speaks with an arrogant tone and was quick to point out that this 1/4 point rise still leaves Australians in a good position and "we are still at historically low rates".So lets look at it.On a loan of $150,000 it adds appox $25p/m.Problem there is unless you bought cheap or have that amount remaining,it's the minimum figure.Then look at all those who are relying on credit cards to meet the budget evey month.
Then we move those who with there line of credit morgages who have purchased those big screen tv's or new car and so on.They will look at the bank statement and wonder why they have the same amount owing.Indeed it may be an over reaction today but it should scream a message to those who think all is well but know otherwise.This is the first rate rise in 18 months and of course it had to come,you are all smart enough to reconise that.
This is the start and it will be a painful lesson for those who are over committed.The offical rate today is now 5%.Twelve months from now they should be nudging 6.5-7%.Morgages back to 9.5%-10%.Calculate what that will add to the average household and indeed you will find alot of homes for sale.
RBA LIFTS INTEREST RATE... eom
Sorry Doc,You did ask previously and unfortunately in my last post my passion and urgency to get my message across made me forget sight into letting you know as to the 3 that I use and believe me they are no secret as I don't mind sharing any info (BHP,ORI and OSH last 2 weeks)if it helps for others.Anyway back to the indicators and they are .....Slow Stoch,MACD and RSI.
Now I have set this up to suit myself(Day Trader) and whilst this is not for everyone it still relates.Andy will confirm these if need be,I'm sure.Now that in mind I liken this as a type of absolute.Meaning, unless all are showing me the correct signal at the same time I will not even consider it.Then it's all hands on deck,for me it's one of those 80/20 situations that more times than not will pay off.
Then it's a matter of the big "D" coming into play.Place the trade and let it ride until it shows you something different.For me that something different would be anyone of those 3 turning down ,especially if it's got a jump in volume.I'll bank the profit and either go in search of others or sit on the sideline if to many mixed signals are coming in.
Anyway,it all relates to my "10 commandments" and if you are "DISCIPLINED" enough to use those 8 rules that I posted you will go a long way to succeeding.Give it a go on paper and see if it works.I know paper trading is always different than actual trading but,it all comes down to you.
Have you got what it takes or will it take what you have?
PS...Thanks XW
Not having a go Doc and I do agree.I do have regular talks with Andy and he knows of which "3 " I use.Anyway they (ABI) are looking more bullish and although T/A may be above your head as you put it I leave you and the board with this.IF T/A interests you or anyone else and it all seems to much as it did with anyone who starts out especially with the with the 100's of indicators and 1000's of so called experts out there inviting you to subscribe to them.In my opinion the best method is to go back in time and see who the best traders have been.
See why they succeeded.See what they all have in common and you will find that the reason they produced the most successful results was not because of T/A or F/A alone.What I mean by that is they all had different tools to go by.Some used Candles or Gann or Waves or Indicators or even a combination of all those. Others such as Warran Buffett and George(I made $1 billion in a day ) Souros rely more on the fudamentals,but they all had the big "D".DISCIPLINE.
Over the past few weeks when I have posted I have put in a little quote at the end.Always a different one but none the less still relevant and maybe it goes unoticed or maybe people say who cares ?.What does Traden know anyway?.WHat I say is this, regardless of whether you believe my posts,regardless of your investment style(trader or investor)The market demands you to be disciplined and for those that can't they are bound to lose more than they win.So for those who would like to read the 8 of the 10 commandments here they are.By the way the other 2 only relate to my situation but the rest are for anyone and everyone.
1.Do not demand consistency in your returns. But be consistent in your discipline.
2.Trade within your "core position." Only trade a small percentage of your available capital at any one time.
3.Keep your risk low and your greed under control. Good traders are content with taking a piece of the pie and coming back for seconds.
4.You must be decisive. If your decision point comes into the crosshair – you must be able to pull the trigger immediately.
5.Don’t remain in a trade because you just entered it. If your technical indicators are telling you to get out – get out immediately.
6.Wait for the 80/20 trade. This is the trade that you want to buy or sell immediately -- leave the 60/40 trades alone.
7.If you find yourself wishing or hoping – get out!!!
8.If you are feeling anxiety while trading, or the market is giving mixed signals, stand on the sidelines. The best decisions are made in a low-stress environment.
These of course are not mine but and as I said IN MY OPINION[/U] that is halfway to succeeding.
Buy Commodoties(soybean,coffee,wheat,metals,etc.... and short the $US.....Sell investment properties that still have a huge mortgage on them....Use any profit to pay off your own home or subsequently put the cash into shorting the US or buying the above.....Reduce all debt....Overdrafts,Credit cards,etc as much as you can......
Instead of reading brokers reports take the time to study up on history and more importantly the effects of this credit bubble/no saving mentality that we are in.
Facts are if you eat to much and dont exercise you get fat...Same thing here ...If you spend all the time and don't save you get poor.Whilst the low rates are designed to encourage just that..for people to spend more,it doesnt give incentive for people to save and things like line of credit morgages are nothing but a dam nightmare that are yet to be realised and the day will come when those who cant control their spending will find that out and unfortunately that is 95% of all households.
WHY so down you may ask,I mean the market is going gang busters and growth is the US is climbing at an outstanding pace.Interest rates are tipped to stay low for a long while yet(long enough for bush to get re-elected ).A recovery for sure is the cry from institutions.Roll out the flag and play the anthem as "we are the land of the free and the home of the brave".Well "free" they are not.They are tied to more debt than close to any time in history and "Brave" they are going to need to be when it all crashes down around them.
So what has this got to do with us down under...Well apart from having a little less national debt ,How far different from those in the land of the stars and strips are we?.Answer, NONE.We are for all intensive purposes the younger brother of the good 'ol US of A but ,I'm sure that is nothing new to us all.
When will this all happen,Well thats the mystery and maybe not this year or next but, I have said before, if the market wants to push higher so beit.I for one will play the game and if you can make some for your self ,great but, the day will come and I'm damn sure that most here will experience it as you are all still young enough.
The 20th was the bullish day for ABI as the confirmation came on the day that all the "important indicators" crossed over and a break out in volume occured.Today another spike in volume and that candle is the highest bull candle you can get...Next stop 0.33
If only I was on the "e-mail list".....I could of made some cash,LOL
lollolololololol
You might get an "e-mail " to tell you who has bought back in,LOL
OXR....With the price of gold down to its first level(US $382)it may bee a good time to look at getting into OXR.Looking down I like .89 for the first stop.If the traders want it cheaper than that chances are they will take it all the way back to the .85 cent level.
With respect DT's are always at work.Keep in mind stocks range trade 90% of the time.It's where the oppurtunity presents itself and what you do with it when it's there that counts.
YAM- The buying on this one look better at 0.012 than here ,but if this thing humps over 0.016 on volume in excess of the avarage,get on because they are (A) a gold stock and (B) on the start of forming another leg up.
That's the T/A and be warned I no NOTHING else of them except what the charts says.CHeck the fundamentals if you so wish.
Michael....Look at the top and look at the bottom price of the last big run up.......I have mentioned that I look for prices at resistance/support levels prveiously on here and even though at the time it was directed at LOK/LOOK it still goes for all stocks,options,warrants,etc.
That 's why I mentioned that "traders" took it from close to one level down to the next level.As to your question I would say that they are referring to a "pennant situation" or a "descending triangle"all of which I don't have much to do with however you can read more of this at http://stockcharts.com/ .I'm not saying if this method is right or wrong as there are many ways to kick a goal and in the end so long as your score it matters not on how you do it.
#Don't remain in a trade because you entered it.If the technical indicators are telling you to get out-get out immediately
TO THE BOARD.......
I was in fairly indepth conversation over the weekend with a few people and we amoungst other things dicussed the "mood" of the market.My point was that even after this recent rally and all the you have heard from the US fed and money managers about how the Econmy is through the worst of it and this is the beggining of a bull market,that the mood of investors was not one of total conviction.
SO I ask those here that you respond to a simple Question...
ARE YOU TOTALLY CONFIDENT THAT ALL IS NOW RIGHT AND THAT THE USA HAS EVERYTHING IN PLACE?
Feel free to add a comment otherwise just a yes or no will do.
MI TCL,don't follow...MIG...It had to close at 3.33 or better and I still have it as a better performer but it was taken back down to the next level of support..Why?...Well not so sure,maybe some news but thats the fundamentals and I have stated that I'm pruely at T/A.So that in mind the Traders will play and thats why if you want to be serious about trading it requires a tight stop loss system.
Good work..Now lock in the profits....
#Keep your risk low and your greed under control#
EQR at the top.... look at it when the traders push it back to 0.20...First stop 0.27...
MIG...Looking very good for a run to 3.40.... if above that should be good to 4.46.
Barry,you think anyone wants to hear it,Get a life.Threatening legal action,Big noting yourself,Demanding this,Demanding that...Remember,you breath and bleed like the rest of us and You are far from being in any position to play the high and mighty role!!!!
Stockings...NEVER EVER feel that Questions are dumb...Infact you will find that most are welcome to the idea of Q's.You will also find that a few here a quite knowledgable and regardless if you are the type who shows a stronger interest in the Technical or the Fundamental side or a mix of both keep this in mind...Whether it be investing or trading,both are a skill and it only improves with with experience and study.ALWAYS and this goes for everyone including myself,ALWAYS BE A STUDENT and KEEP ON LEARNING.
It good that you appologise AFS ,but this board(largely to TG) has taken a different road and the tips are bounced around on all sorts of reasons.So long as those who do follow a tip realises that the person providing it has a reason to say what they are saying and are not liable for any loss experienced.SO no agro should be dished if someone does cop a set back.
I think TG has said it enough times now and I take my hat off to TG for showing the "balls" to hit back and try and rectify what is harrowing experience.That goes for all I'd say...If you have a tip,question or general comment put it straight out and leave the double talk for ASIO and CIA agents.That way no confusion or misunderstandings should come to pass.
Another thing I think might be worthwhile would be the introduction of a mandatory tagging of posts with the code of the stock other wise if someone has 2 or 3 reco and a Q comes back to them and there not sure as to which stock they are refering.Even if the message is short .Just an idea guys.
As for EHO...Looking down from here .... .044(now)-.041-.037
#If your decision point comes into the crosshair-you must be able to pull the trigger immediately.
Is that Smuggler?
OSH...THe bounce may have enough juice to get it to $1.05 .If not wait for a close at .99 to confirm it continuing this leg downb and get back in line at 0.95.If that fails then look at 0.89 and 0.83.My feeling is .89 but lets see where the traders take it.
ARL ..If it closes on .26 with volume,get the hell out and wait at either .22 or .17
METABOLIC FPO (ASX:MBP)
Quote Chart News Profile Market Depth Recommendation Trade
As of: 23 October, 2003 3:59:46 PM Real-time
Price Change Open Bid Offer
1.1200 -0.0500 1.1400 1.120 1.130
Volume High Low Tick Type Currency
6660756 1.1400 1.1000 - Shares AUD
Posted by: Traden
In reply to: None Date:10/20/2003 10:32:17 PM
Post #of 9986
MBP...If it closes under 1.26 today other entry points are 1.12....1.00....0.89.....0.74...IMO
1.12 today the first entry point and huge volume,it could shoot down to $1 tommorrow ,then bounce.
ORI has had enough by the look of it..1st stop 12.26
Yeah I'm sure it is Andy.In any case Barry has enough problems to deal with but,thats ok he doesn't care who he tramples, Friend or foe.Shame some had to find out the hard way...I'll check those 4 out with my mate stochY,lol.