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I called Tom Scarpa, Natcore's VP and IR man, wondering why the lower share price on higher volume. It may have to do with a planned private placement.
Tom said the company has an opportunity to move into an existing lab in the Houston area, and wanted to take advantage of it. The lab will be used to accelerate their research work. Tom said that Natcore often has to wait for other scientists to complete their testing, or whatever, before Natcore can test, or whatever, at the current labs.
Tom stated that Natcore plans to raise approximately $6 million. The new shares will be priced 15% below the listed share price at the time of the offering. Each new share will come with 1/2 warrant, with a strike price of approximately $1.25.
Tom said that there is strong demand for the new shares. I hope that the market has already priced in the new offering.
JB
The share price has been acting favorably for the last week. I think that investors are connecting the dots from recent PRs.
With regards to NanoShades ... "We've been approached by various companies to do this, since they want to be at the front of the line when our super-efficient solar cell technology is developed."
Imagine how solar panel manufacturers must be salivating to hook up with Natcore (Zhuzhou) in order to be at the front of the line when the super-efficient solar cell technology is developed!
With regards to Natcore (Zhuzhou) ... "We are going to hit the ground running, and fully expect great achievements from this partnership."
JB
Not sure if this is the reason, but Natcore has a new impressive power point presentation on their website.
JB
Why do you say mysterious lab? Natcore named the lab.
Why do you ask how much Rice gets? Natcore released that info.
Why do you attack a company you know nothing about?
Do some DD!
Thanks ck, that helps.
The recent discovery of how to increase the rate of LPD film growth by up to ten times should add to the revenue by reducing manufacturer's costs.
Another possible revenue add,"Film passivation discovery adds to reach of Natcore's LPD process."
JB
You are confused regarding the business model of Natcore Technology (Zhuzhou) LTD, formerly Natcore China. They do not produce tons of film. They fabricate and sell LPD process equipment and sell the chemicals for the process.
Natcore explained their LPD business as selling the razor, razor blades and the right to shave. The razor is the LPD process equipment. The razor blades are the chemicals used to grow the AR film on silicon. The right to shave is the license from Natcore Technology (Zhuzhou).
When a silicon solar panel manufacturer decides that they want to grow the AR coating on their solar panels using the chemical bath LPD process, instead of using multi-million dollar, high temperature ovens, they sign a licensing agreement with Natcore Technology (Zhuzhou). After the licensing agreement is signed, Natcore Technology (Zhuzhou) will sell them the AR growth equipment and chemicals. Selecting the LPD process allows the manufacturers to use up to 66% less silicon in their panels.
Natcore hopes to license their LPD process to every silicon solar cell manufacturer on earth. When the high efficientcy tandem cell is developed, it will be constructed using the LPD process and licenced to silicon solar cell manufacturers.
Chuangke Silicon LTD, a partner of Natcore in Natcore Technology (Zhuzhou) LTD, is expected to be the first company to license the LPD process. And thus, the first to purchase equipment and chemicals.
As far as revenue is concerned, Natcore put out a number of $100 per panel for the tandem cell panels. I don't know what their licensing fee, equipment, and chemicals charges will be for the AR coating only.
You may have mistaken this joint venture and product with Natcore acquisition Vanguard's flexible thin film patented technology. We are waiting for Natcore to develop this business. This is where Kodak or another partner may team with Natcore.
This is my understanding of the business model. I'm certainly open to any additions and corrections.
I hope this helps.
JB
I didn't mean to imply imminnent bankruptcy. Only the possibility. Kodak has been in decline for 13 years. They have done a poor job of adjusting to changing business conditions. Natcore needs to do a great deal of due diligence before striking any deal.
Kodak wants to become involved with Natcore via a government matching grant. This is not the preferred route according to Tom Scarpa. Things could change though. However, Tom emphasized that Natcore was having discussions with other companies.
Time will tell. I believe that Natcore will make the right choice.
JB
I took a look at Kodak's chart, $30.00 pps in 2007, $95.00 pps in 1997, $4.10 pps now. This stock is down 96% from it's high. Natcore needs to be careful here. I wouldn't want Natcore to partner with a company that has a potential for bankruptcy.
JB
Why not buy Natcore stock for a buck and hold it. The stock comes with no expiration date. Massive appreciation potential imo.
JB
I agree that Natcore's solar technology is going to be huge, but, you may be jumping the gun with Kodak's affiliation with Natcore.
Natcore has not released news regarding contracts with Kodak.
In early August Tom Scarpa (Natcore's IR man and executive VP) told me that Kodak had contacted Natcore regarding using Natcore's name in a request for a government grant. In mid September Tom answered my Kodak update question by stating that government grants come with many strings attached and can be a long drawn out process. He thought that Kodak was still persuing the matching grant.
Tom went on to say that other companies are interested in Natcore's flexible roll to roll process. The 9/15 PR stated "we remain dedicated to the development of similar joint ventures in the United States and Canada for different applications of our technology. We are presently in discussions and negotiations with industry and venture capital groups towards that end."
We may hear news regarding a joint venture soon and it's possible that a partner will be Kodak or BASF.
Regards, JB
Dom, I would add Dr. Flood's name to futr's list. From Natcore's website, Dr. Flood has more than 30 years of experience in developing solar cell and array technology. Dr. Flood has advised leading research and development organizations as well as SOLAR CELL COMPANIES and INVESTMENT ANALYSTS.
Natcore China partner Chuangke Silicon LTD undoubtedly provides Chinese business acumen insights to Provini. CS LTD's CEO speaks English fluently, according to Tom Scarpa.
IMO, Natcore has the bases covered here.
JB
Provini has a very impressive past. It's comforting to know that he is running our company. His graduation from the Naval Acadamy in 1969 would probably put him at around 63 years old, and judging from his wall street background, I would venture that he could have slipped into a very comfortable retirement instead of taking on the CEO position. Or, found a much higher paying job.
Natcore's financials list his pay at $220,000 per year. He also receives options that, of course, only gain in value if the share price goes up.
Provini stated in a television interview that Natcore believes that they can change the world by bridging the economic gap between conventional and renewable energy. He must firmly believe that Natcore can achieve this, and wants to be a part of it.
We also have Dr. Andrew Barron (technical consultant) and Dr. Dennis Flood (Chief Technology Officer) on board. Both are co-founders of Natcore, NewCyte, and Vanguard. Both are highly respected scientists and entrepreneurs.
Life is good, JB
domasselin, I agree that dilution at this time makes little sense. The PR stated that vendors have been lined up, but didn't give any indication of what the vendors are going to provide. Natcore may only provide design and marketing while the vendors do the actual production. Who knows?
I also think the NanoShade start up is very bullish. I especially liked this part, "We've been approached by various companies to do this, since they want to be at the front of the line when our super-efficent technology is developed." Provini using when, not if, is very bullish for NanoShade and Natcore China.
In Natcore's latest financial statements for the period ending June 30, 2010, cash was listed at $1,042,030.
4,034,903 warrants expire on 5-8-2011.
2,903,572 warrants expire on 8-31-2011.
The excercise price on these warrants is 75 cents. If all warrants are excercised, Natcore will receive $3,026,177 next May and $2,177,679 next August.
With this warrant money coming in, cash may not be a problem any time soon.
Natcore's financials can be viewed on SEDAR. The link to SEDAR is in this boards in-box.
JB
maybe this time, I'll take a stab at the future financials of Natcore China. I hope that others do as well, as I'm interested in what they are thinking.
In the power point presentation, that was just recently removed from natcoresolar.com, the company pegged revenue at $100 per solar panel produced using their tandem cell technology. I believe that the presentation was assimilated in late 2008 or early 2009. At the time, Natcore stated that 50 million solar panels were being produced annually.
I believe that world wide production will exceed 100 million panels annually by the end of 2012. Natcore's goal is to capture 10% of the world wide market EACH YEAR (again this is with the tandem cell technology).
If Natcore China can capture just 10% of the 100 million panel market, they will achieve $100 X 10 million panels = $1Billion in revenues just from the tandem cell portion of their business. Of course Natcore China has their sights set much higher than 10%.
With the vast majority of revenue coming from licensing, I expect that net income will be at least 40% of revenues. This scenario would result in $1Billion X .40 = $400 million total and $400 million X .55 = $220 million profits for Natcore.
Speculating even further, let's assume that Natcore's total outstanding share count has risen to 50 million shares and that they trade at a p/e of 20, $4.40 eps X 20 = $88.00 share price.
For a world changing technology, I don't think that a 10% market share and a p/e of 20 is overly optimistic.
What do you and others think?
Another terrific PR today. Just trying to imagine the south side of buildings worldwide with solar shades attached to them is mind boggling. Also, they expressed that solar shades will incorporate advanced solar cells made possible by Natcore's proprietary Liquid Phase Deposition WHEN (not if, not promises, not could, not possibly) they become available.
Do your own DD. I have been wrong many times in the past.
JB
China continues to finance solar expansion. Up to RMB 60 Billion (US$8.9 Billion) to LDK. WOW
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=44530789&symbol=ny^ldk
JB
ck, great post.
With China imposing rolling blackouts to meet energy usage goals, and capping silicon producer's factory expansion, I believe the stage is set very favorably for Natcore China's LPD roll out.
I read Natcore's latest PR again this morning. Impressive, there are a lot of very significant developments included.
JB
maybe this time, I have confidence in Natcore's management team. From the announcement, a key element of the joint venture is operation in China as a local company, with all intellectual property protections accruing to such a position. I would feel more uncomfortable if Natcore did not partner with the Chinese.
As far as a better suitor, I'm not sure there is one. Andrew Barron's team developed LPD and is developing the tandem solar cell. I would think that Dr. Barron had the final say regarding Rice's licensing of the technology.
Dr. Barron's experiences as co-founder of successful start up companies must have pushed him in that direction with LPD. Who wouldn't want to co-found their own company as opposed to getting involved with an existing company?
Natcore's business plan is not to manufacture, instead, they want to license to everybody. This plan does not require a lot of capital.
All IMHO,
JB
Art, during my conversation with Tom last week, he only stated that he was presenting this week. He didn't give a day. My impression is that the presentation is an update for Rice U officals only.
Tom did state that another PR will be released this week.
JB
ck thanks for the excellent post. The link to the Gallia article must have expired, but, you gave a great review. I like the idea that Dr. Barron has been involved in prior successful start ups. It's exciting to know that he and Dr. Flood are founders of Natcore, Vanguard, and NewCyte, all of which are now part of Natcore.
From last weeks PR, "Rate of LPD growth multiplied 10 times, while new passivation discovery promises important new applications." Agreed, Natcore's position has been strenghtened significantly.
It's interesting that the " Why China can't meet its polysilcon demands " article you posted states " The module makers need more silicon, but the government has put a cap on factory expansion ".
This is happening while the China State Bank has recently given $billion plus lines of credit to silicon solar companies STP, TSL, JASO, and YGE.
While I'm no expert, it's obvious to me that the Chinese solar manufacturers are going to have to significantly reduce their use of silicon per panel.
I believe that the stars are lining up favorably for Natcore!
JB
Hello ck1234, I have a favor to ask of you.
Would you please post the following two articles on this board ...
Why China can't meet its Polysilicon Needs
A previous Barron start up (Gallia).
Some on this board may not have seen these articles.
Thanks, JB
NorthsunO, good for you, you're going to love it. My wife and I cruised the Polynesian Islands in '86. It was great. We bicycled around the island of Bora Bora, during which we stopped at Bloody Mary's for a drink, and almost missed the ships departure. lol
JB
Just, it probably depends on what is in the next PR.
Tom Scarpa stated on tuesday that a PR would be released next week.
JB
maybe this time, while I'm not an expert, my take is that this is a whole different process with totally different materials. The surface coating is a different substance and the quantum dots are a different substance than Natcore is using.
These guys used different sized dots in a single layer. Natcore's tanden cell design stacks different sized dots in multiple layers.
Also, initially, only the LPD process is ramping up in China. Not the tandem cell (Holy Grail) process.
JB
How about this this idea I read somewhere. Every power pole is a solar panel, with a battery that feeds electricity in to the wires 24 hours a day.
JB
A private placement is one option.
The share price trading over $1.50 for 20 straight days gives the company the right to call in the warrants. This would be worth around $7,ooo,ooo. Who knows, the company may have some stunning news for us soon. Today was a good start!
Another possibility is cash recieved as part of a J/V or partnership.
JB
Excellent news indeed. I wonder what they have for us in next weeks PR.
Good news for solar in general ...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-15/solar-panel-prices-may-drop-less-than-expected-in-2011-on-european-demand.html
JB
Hello Art,
I read the responses to my posts on the Stockhouse Board. I considered not revealing company names before my earlier post that mentioned Kodak. At the same time, I wanted to share everything that Tom stated.
In the end, it was Tom's wall street background that prompted full disclosure. I feel that Tom volunteers some company activities, that don't warrent PR's, in order to keep shareholders informed and to sustain a higher level of interest in the company. Tom's volunteering company names may even peak interest of other companies that are following Natcore.
At the same time, I realize that everyone is entitled to their own opinion.
Thanks for your support.
JB
futr, even Tom sounded excited!
Imagine, speeding up the A/R coating process by 10 times. OSU did it. Tom thought that the original time frame was 2 hours. He wasn't sure though. He said that he would email me the data.
Tom also stated that Natcore China will probably start by supplying Chuangke Silicon LTD with equipment and chemicals. CS LTD would then manually produce 1,000 to 2,000 panels ensuring that the A/R coating is what it should be in a mass production run. Subsequently, 1,000 to 2,000 panels will be run with the automatic replenishment system, and checked for proper coating. Then, potential customers will have confidence in the proceedure.
CK LTD is already committed to using the A/R process for their panels.
According to Tom, upon committing to enter the solar manufacturing business, BASF identified 150 solar technology companies. After they had phone conversations with these companies and did their dd, they narrowed the field of companies to six. BASF has now invited the six to present their technology. Hopefully, Natcore will prevail. Possibly more than one company out of the six will be successful. Who knows what kind of tech the other five are presenting. Considering all of the chemicals Natcore will need, a BASF/Natcore deal would seem to make sense.
Tom said that he can't even tell me how many calls he gets regarding Natcore's products (it's too many to keep track of).
Kodak's approach has been to secure a government matching grant for the development of the flexable roll to roll coating, and that's fine according to Tom. However, the government can drag their feet. I got the feeling that Natcore may be more interested in a J/V or partnership with a company that funds the deal themselves.
The two insiders that have sold shares, (Meekison and Calhoun) both have companies to run. According to Tom, they are less active in Natcore now. Tom said that they have only sold a small percentage of their holdings.
I like what I heard from Tom today.
JB
There's more! (from my scribbled notes, almost missed it)
Tom said that Natcore is working closely with a Brazilian group that is planning a new 200 MW solar plant. He feels that some existing solar manufacturers may be a bit hesitant to disgard their multi-million dollar ovens. However, this group is an example of a prime customer for Natcore.
JB
Tom Scarpa will be presenting Natcore updates at Rice University next week. He's been called on to do this because Chuck and another member of Natcore's management will be presenting for BASF. The BASF that is one of the world's largest chemical companies with 385 manufacturing facilities worldwide. BASF wants to enter the solar arena. They contacted Natcore, and are interested in a possible J/V or partnership. BASF's focus presently is in thin film solar cell and A/R coating.
There is no news update with regards to Kodak, but Tom added that other companies are interested in commercializing Natcore's flexable roll to roll technology.
In the aftermath of the most recent Natcore presentation in China, Andy Barron has been selected by the hosts to consult for two committees. Also, there already is great interest in the nano cloth used to deflect x-rays. This cloth will be worn by doctors and lab techs. Tom said that experimenting has been done and this cloth is close to commercialization.
Natcore China is progressing. Natcore still expects revenue in the first quarter.
Natcore is in the process of setting up their own lab. It will be near Ohio State U or in New Jersey. Natcore wants to accelerate bringing all facets of their technology to market.
Ohio State U has refined the LPD process in such a way that Natcore's A/R coating can be grown 10 times faster.
Tom stated that substantial progress was being made with regards to the 'HOLY GRAIL'.
Natcore's new website could be launched in a month.
Plenty of good news, as always.
JB
I spoke to Tom Scarpa for 45 minutes this morning.
Natcore plans two press releases. One this Thursday, to update recent Company developments, and one next week.
I have quite a bit of information that I will share as soon as I have time.
JB
The people that I know that have a short position, now have that position boxed. They shorted the stock when they saw the rise in shares shorted begin. Now that the pps has fallen, they have offset their position with longs. They are unwilling to cover their short positions due to the lack of shares available to short.
These shorts (actually neutral) investors figure they are prepared for any of the following ... a bear attack on CCME ... a slow down or double dip ... disappointing news, company or otherwise. If any of these scenarios play out, they will sell their longs. If the pps looks poised to rise, they will buy more.
I don't play their game, but it is one strategy being employed.
JB
Well, the link I just posted doesn't work.
Here's how I found the article ...
search Associated Press
click - news from Associated Press
type China Blackouts in search box
click - China blacks out towns to meet energy goal
If anybody knows how to post this article, please do so.
TIA
JB
Article regarding China's rolling blackouts. It appears that the Chinese government is taking energy conservation seriously. Which is another reason for their solar manufacturers to ditch their ovens and use Natcore's LPD process. Hopefully, Natcore will soon be able to offer the 'Holy Grail' to manufacturers as well.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/a/as_china_enforced_blackouts?site=ap§ion=home&template=default
I will email this message to Natcore and report their reply.
Natcore China is in the process of hiring their executives. They certainly are not allowing solar companies to license their technology yet.
JB
Sorry for the previous double posts.
I was checking out First Solar's website today. On page 16 of the Corporate Overview, they listed their conversion efficiency for their thin film solar panels.
4th qtr 2009 ... 11.1%
~ 2012 ... 12.5% - 13.5%
~ 2014 ... 15.3%
I had heard that they are a low cost producer, but didn't realize that their conversion efficiency is this low.
Jim
OOPS ... Natcore article ...
http://green.blorge.com/2010/08/natcore-partners-with-china-on-solar-breakthroughs/
Interesting, the last time Natcore was in China, they left with a letter of intent to form Natcore China!
Jim
Art, happy to shed some light on this unusual situation.
Yesterday, NTCXF closed at 1.129. My NTCXF shares at Fidelity are valued at 1.1143.
Jim
My brokerage account is with Fidelity. They don't show bid/ask
prices for NTCXF. However, they do show them for NXT.V.
My end of the day $ balance for NTCXF is always based on NXT.V's
closing price, adjusted for currency differences, regardless of
NTCXF's closing price.
When buying NTCXF, I look at the bid price for NXT and subtract
4 cents in order to determine the ballpark corresponding correct
bid price for NTCXF.
I've noticed that my buys show up as volume on NXT.V if they don't
show up as volume on NTCXF.
Jim