maybe this time, I'll take a stab at the future financials of Natcore China. I hope that others do as well, as I'm interested in what they are thinking.
In the power point presentation, that was just recently removed from natcoresolar.com, the company pegged revenue at $100 per solar panel produced using their tandem cell technology. I believe that the presentation was assimilated in late 2008 or early 2009. At the time, Natcore stated that 50 million solar panels were being produced annually.
I believe that world wide production will exceed 100 million panels annually by the end of 2012. Natcore's goal is to capture 10% of the world wide market EACH YEAR (again this is with the tandem cell technology).
If Natcore China can capture just 10% of the 100 million panel market, they will achieve $100 X 10 million panels = $1Billion in revenues just from the tandem cell portion of their business. Of course Natcore China has their sights set much higher than 10%.
With the vast majority of revenue coming from licensing, I expect that net income will be at least 40% of revenues. This scenario would result in $1Billion X .40 = $400 million total and $400 million X .55 = $220 million profits for Natcore.
Speculating even further, let's assume that Natcore's total outstanding share count has risen to 50 million shares and that they trade at a p/e of 20, $4.40 eps X 20 = $88.00 share price.
For a world changing technology, I don't think that a 10% market share and a p/e of 20 is overly optimistic.
What do you and others think?
Another terrific PR today. Just trying to imagine the south side of buildings worldwide with solar shades attached to them is mind boggling. Also, they expressed that solar shades will incorporate advanced solar cells made possible by Natcore's proprietary Liquid Phase Deposition WHEN (not if, not promises, not could, not possibly) they become available.
Do your own DD. I have been wrong many times in the past.
JB
