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So yes, I am a long and have been here for a long time. I am struggling to see how to remain one, however, and the crushing stock price lately and the crazy red in my account certainly contributes to my skepticism.
I wrote a much longer post, but have thought better of it. As I see it, there are a few ways of looking at this. The optimistic scenario is that we are at the darkest part of night before the dawn, but by the end of the year, we'll have our deal. We will miss the Aspire milestones, but that's not a big deal, because that financing was going to drag us down anyway. The pessimistic scenario is that the deal falls through, there's not another one behind it, and the company falls into either toxic financing or bankruptcy. The cynical scenario is that Leo lied about there being a term sheet, and he's just stringing us along to keep the company afloat as long to keep riding the gravy train.
As for me, I'm still optimistic, enough so that I'll hang onto my shares, but not so much so as to buy any more. I fear that it's likely we go much lower before the deal goes through. I've set aside a bit of money in case that happens.
The problem is that he's now got no trials active, he's not moving forward on anything, and he's low on cash. He sold 8 million shares to raise $2 million, and he'll have to keep doing that every quarter or two, unless he gets a partnership. If nothing happens soon, the stock price will be right back in the 30s, if not lower.
Trust me, I believe in the science. I'm pretty nervous about the lack of cash and the length of time it's taken to get a partnership. I'll feel much better once ipix has a little money coming in.
Nice day of consolidation today - can't run up 35% every day.
After seeing it drop into the 30s recently, I reflected on what was going on here. I don't think this is a scam and that we're in the final days of Leo milking the company; if this were his goal, he would have managed to do that a LONG time ago. I think that Leo knows that he's got some real value here and has been holding out for a deal. Unfortunately, the P results are taking a long time and he's running out of cash, and so it's forced his hand to settle for a less-than-perfect deal. He's raised a bit of cash so that he still has a bit of a negotiating position, and he's going to make a deal in the next six months, likely sooner.
So I finally had some stones and bought shares amidst all the fear, and I sold them today, keeping my profits in the form of free shares. (I've still got my core position from years ago.)
Of course, I could be totally wrong, and basically we're going to (close to) zero, if we don't really have any deals to make. Someone will probably pick us up out of bankruptcy to try to carry the drugs to market, but we won't be the ones to profit.
When do we get B-OM and Prurisol results?
Both of these trials look like they are done recruiting, as of the end of August, since they were updated on clinicaltrials.gov. How long does it take before we get some top-line results?
I have also liked your TA posts. While I've been a long-term investor, I have been looking to try and make a little bit of money on the swings. I have only rudimentary TA knowledge and so it's hard for me to play the small swings.
However, when it last rallied to a dollar, I sold a few shares, and in my simple analysis, I have an order to buy them back at .71 because the low seventies are twice where we've dipped recently. Without some news, I see us going back there again, unfortunately.
Long-term, I believe in the science, although I have to admit that my patience has been quite tested here, and I am starting to question management's ability to get us a partnership, or if we will just continue making incremental progress but eventually bleed dry of money. I know we've got a slow burn rate, but we can't take forever. I'm optimistic that after the trial results due in the next 6 months or so that Leo will be able to strike a partnership and ensure the long-term stability of the company.
I did sell a few shares today, even though I've been long for years. It's a bit of a hedge against what might happen on Thursday, that we may have a quick drop to a much lower price in the event of some disappointment. In that case, I'll at least have cashed out a little, and get back my shares and pocket a little something. I've been around long enough that I've been disappointed over and over again before some "big news" and only seen the price fall afterwards and kicked myself for not selling a little and buying it back at a cheaper price.
I do believe in the science here and think that in the long run, I will be able to make some money on this. I hope that people are right in that today is the last day we trade under a buck and that soon we'll be in the multiple dollars or double-digit range soon, and I'll be happy that the large majority of my shares (which I still own) are worth much, much more. I'm done trying to be overly greedy here.
Charts versus fundamentals
I appreciate 123tom's posts, in spite of what several people have posted here. He is discussing his chart analysis and where he would look to buy and sell, giving some reasoning based on it. I don't think you can look exclusively at them, but they can be helpful for trying to figure out good exit and entry points, which is something I am truly terrible at.
Certainly some great fundamentals trumps the charts, and that's why I'm still in this stock after 5 years, even though I have incurred losses due to my poor trade management, and let's face it, greed. I still maintain the science here is sound and that my patience will ultimately be rewarded.
Thanks, Sox! I'm going to take it that Leo provided a bit of additional color.
Yeah, it doesn't really cite the source. I don't know if they talked with the company and got that from discussing it with Leo, did some research, or are simply speculating.
How did bizjournals get the March 2016 date? I don't see any mention of it in the PR.
I'm not complaining, but I think we had a paint job at the end of the day to close us green. Only 4500 shares traded in the last minute, and it shot us up 6 cents. On another day, I can see the gnashing of teeth as the same trade would cause us to close red and people would complain of manipulation.
I agree that it was last updated on Sept. 1. There are 9 locations listed, but I guess that 5 of them are in the Miami area, so are we counting those as a single site?
1. Hunsville, Alabama, United States, 35801
2. Encino, California, United States, 91436
3. Kissimmee, Florida, United States, 34741
4a. Coral Gables, Florida, United States, 33134
4b. Hialeah, Florida, United States, 33016
4c. Miami, Florida, United States, 33126
4d. Miami, Florida, United States, 33144
4e. Pembroke Pines, Florida, United States, 33026
5. Las Vegas, Nevada, United States, 89119
I like your thought that it will be done in 3 months. You do have to take into account that we have 11 weeks of observation after the last patient recruitment, which still would be mean trial data collection wouldn't end in March. clinical trials is saying June, and knowing that things move more slowly than we expect, I tend to believe them. If it's done sooner, I'll be pleasantly surprised.
Thanks much for visiting the company and asking my questions. It's good to know that management is on top of it, and that we'll be fine in the long run. :)
I would like for him to give an update on the company's financial situation - what are the expected expenses over the next year and how does he expect to pay for them (partnership, Aspire, shelf, etc.) I would expect his answer to be that he plans to address this in the 10-K at the end of the year, but confirmation of that would be good.
For inclusion to the Russell index, only two weeks left! We need to be uplisted by the end of the month. I'm still thinking it will likely be next week, not this one.
Thanks for where you got the info. I don't think Mark is a member of the synagogue, for what it's worth. Dodi was recognized at the synagogue back in 1998, about the same time Mark was graduating from the University of Pittsburgh.
While I do think that you could argue that we should have perhaps greater independence (perhaps a medical doctor that doesn't have personal ties to Leo), I think the set of directors is solid.
And yeah, we had some great presentations on the conference and it's really nice to see Leo moving forward on the uplisting front. We should be mere days away from being on the Nasdaq.
I think the board choices were OK. Mostly I'm just glad that they're made so that we can get uplisted and stop hearing complaints about all of Leo's promises about uplisting and start hearing about having options and making it easier to short on a bigger exchange is holding the stock price down. :)
I think that a couple of the obstacles to having "bigger players" on the board are cost and share structure. It costs money to have big names, and Leo likes to run a tight ship. Also, the share structure is such that Leo and Menon have the voting power to rearrange the board at any time anyway. With so little input, would it be worth the time of a big player to be on CTIX's board?
Upcoming Catalysts based on today's PR
early May - Announcement that Kevetrin allowed to treat more than 40 patients at Dana-Farber in ongoing Phase 1 study
May - Kevetrin AML Phase 2 at University of Bologna
May - B-OM Phase 2 trial to start
May/June - NASDAQ uplisting (board of directors is already approved)
May/June - Prurisol Phase 2 start
end June 2015 - B-ABSSSI end of phase 2 meeting
3Q 2015 - Start of Phase 3 B-ABSSSI trials
later in 2015 - Brilacidin Ulcerative Proctitis/Colitis Phase 2 start in Europe
late 2015 - completion of Kevetrin Phase 1 at Dana Farber; start of new trial
Other Developments
Kevetrin Renal Cancers at BIDMC Phase 2 study is still planned, but no date given.
Phase 2 for hidradenitis supprurativa put on hold for now (too many other trials)
Another week in the books. I do admit that Brilacidin got me really excited last year - we started up the trial, moved steadily through enrolling patients, completed the trials and got top-line results. We even met with the FDA about the results and they simply asked for "more data".
Now, 4 months after that meeting, we've had no progress on that front. Sure, Kevetrin has completed another cohort, we've got some IND studies in the works, and even a new round of financing, but Brilacidin is really what is going to move the needle in the next year or so. A partnership, revenue stream and likely even uplisting are all tied to Brilacidin advancing into a Phase 3. It does seem like it's inevitable that it will start, but the waiting is really, really hard.
I'm long, and I've been here for a while, and I don't plan on going anywhere soon. But it doesn't make the wait any easier, and I can see why the natives are growing restless. Hopefully the comprehensive update and/or the ECCMID conference will give us information on things moving again.
While it could be as soon as next week that we are approved for the Nasdaq, the more likely scenario is closer to a month.
Given that everything seems to take longer than I hope for, I don't expect to see a PR about actually getting listed on the Nasdaq until the end of April.
I have funds on hold that clear tomorrow, so I hope that the current flatness stays for one more day. Once I buy tomorrow morning, it can run like crazy. :D
I'm bewildered by today's PR. I mean, it's great that we're working on the skin care drug, but we're not even at the IND stage. Is that really very newsworthy.
I look at this in one of two ways.
1. Leo and company are waiting for more news on the K trial and to hear back from the FDA regarding B and P, so they just want to let us know that they are still busy building value.
2. Some bombshell is about to be released, but rather than just go completely silent, they decided to distract us with something that won't be relevant until the distant future.
I lean toward option 1. However, sometimes what you don't say is more important that what you do say.
To echo the others here, welcome to the board. I agree that now is a great time to buy CTIX. I think that we have several catalysts in the near future (uplisting, Brilacidin Phase 2b bottom line data, conference in Europe, start of Brilacidin Phase 3 along with partnership announcement), and so this is a great price to buy.
I'm putting my money where my mouth is as I have recently freed up some funds and am moving them here. I don't really see the stock moving downward (as we've gone through the correction from the last move), and while I am hoping that this recent stable period holds so I can add to my holdings, I could live with a big move up. :)
A 1B market cap would give us a share price of 8.57, at the current share count of about 116M (per the latest 10-K).
Agreed about the Class B shares. I think it's a "poison pill" thing.
Right now, we need to be on the market in order to fund the company. But being on the market exposes you to having someone swoop in and buy out the company. (And a smart big biopharma could easily plop down $500 million and grab us.)
By having that provision in place, no one can buy us out unless Leo and Menon agree to it. Now, of course, I'm with you in that if they start to abuse their power, it's time to head for the exits, but so far, I see no reason for why they would do so.
I thought I'd give a stab at actually answering your questions, since most people just seemed to say "just read the board". Overall, I appreciate your skepticism. I give the company and Leo the benefit of the doubt, and we just need to patient.
My concerns are:
1) This latest news drops - it's a sample of one. It feels fluffy to me. How many mature bio's release news like this? (Serious question, I don't know)
I don't think that mature bios release news like this, but then again, mature bios don't seem to work on developmental-stage drugs much anymore. I still maintain that it's news meant to encourage investors, and that we still have to be patient for the long-term results. Also, if Dana-Farber is going to want to publish something about the trial, I'd be surprised that they would want to talk about just one case.
2) The company's priority for uplisting to NASDAQ is lower on the to-do list than I care for. Sometime in 2015? Vague. It seemed like in late 2014 most of us thought this would occur in Q1-Q2. Today it seems like end of 2015 and given how things tend to drag this could easily be 2016. Why?
I think Leo wants us to get to the NASDAQ and the main issue is that he needs some good money in the bank, so that he can avoid significant dilution. I think there are partnership offers on the table but he needs to get the P3 Brilacidin trial rolling, and there have been delays with the FDA responding to the trial, so that is what is holding it up. I think Leo was overly optimistic is how soon things could work out.
3) The B P2b results are incredible but does the fact that the patients in the trial were prescreened reduce our ability to take the results at face value? How do we really KNOW the data is as good as it looks?
There's a couple of ways to look at your question: one, did they take the patients that weren't that hurt and use them specifically in the trial, or two, were they more sinister and made sure that the worst patients got Dapto so B could look better. In the first case, I'd say that the trial moved pretty quickly, so be that selective would have dragged the trial out much longer. In the second case, I'd say that would be pretty crooked to orchestrate. I think there were 4 sites that the trial was being held at, so to get the sites to all work together would be very impressive.
4) Management apparently not wanting to even entertain a partnership deal until trials are further progressed. Is this prudent or greedy? I know we have financing lined up but we aren't exactly flush with cash and if the general market drops out then our financing suddenly looks really shaky.
I think we do need to have a P3 trial actually started, and since that is not the case, it is prudent to wait, since we can get much more money once the P3 trial is underway. I'll be disappointed if we don't ink a deal shortly after the start of the trial, as I think there is a bubble in the market and time is of the essence. While concerning, I think that Leo will avoid
5) Prurisol - we were all very excited about the progression in the summer... now it seems to be third on the list again. What's going on here? It seems like this should be a slam dunk and now it's eerily quite.
It seems to still be going strong. The latest PR said that the FDA agreed CTIX could move forward with the trial:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=109024701
It seems that from the slides at the Biotech Showcase the trial should be up and running - I'd guess that by the end of Feb, we should see a PR announcing the start of the trial.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=110097238
Bittersweet indeed. I guess that money that I had scrounged up to buy the dip will not be getting cheap shares after all. Shoot, it may be over $5 before they're available! Gotta look at the bright side: the shares I already locked in are smiling greenly.
I agree with you, and I scrounged up some more money to buy in with this downtrend. I, too, am trying to find when I will get the most for my money. I'd guess that the bottom is close, but not yet in... I think a retest of the 2.90 support is likely.
I do think within a month, we'll be back to the low 4s, so maybe I shouldn't sweat buying in so much. :)
Thanks - that's a great article and certainly awesome advice for a novice like me.
Thanks much for the post and perspective. I was really hoping for a nice rally on the conference and bought some more just before the conference. Now seeing those shares down a good 25% or so, I've gone ahead and transferred some extra powder. We'll see what the price is like in a week. If it's still sitting around these levels (or even lower), you'll bet that I'm buying.
Not that it matters much, but I think that the 2.80-2.90 range is most likely the lowest that it will go. Given that I now need to wait a few days before my funds clear, we'll be back at 4 by the end of the week. :)
TOB, I had to re-read this a couple of times to understand how this was good news, but I'm in full agreement. Basically, as long as they are adding cohorts, it means that we have not yet reached the end of the trial. The trial stops its progression once there are at least two DLTs in a given cohort (whether it's 2 of the original 3, or one DLT from the original 3, and then another DLT in the added 3).
I was somehow thinking we could have had a larger increase at this point, but given that we already had one DLT in the 9th cohort, this was the best we could do. Glad to see the trial progressing!
I think that there is a small positive effect from some board members going out there and posting comments, as they get new eyes on to us.
In the grand scheme of things, though, the new eyeballs that really count is some kind of big pharma agreeing to do a partnership with CTIX. When that happens and CTIX has some money in the bank and a steady revenue stream, all of the good stock appreciation will happen shortly, as the partnership paves the way for uplisting. Additional investment will also be encouraged, as at that time, we'll lose our 'going concern' label in our financials. I trust that Leo is working on this, and that is properly his focus.
Hey, I wasn't that far off... I predicted 4.01 year-end in October, and we ended the year at 4.39. Hopefully by the end of this month, we'll make at least $6!
I took some profits last week, as I am highly overcommitted on this stock and wanted to get some of my basis out.
Overall, I look at the current situation as a win-win. I'd be delighted if we hit the low-end of the trading range so that I could scoop up a few shares and I could bank a few more free shares. If we never go back that low and march on to $5 and beyond, I'm equally happy, as I have a nice core position and know the fundamentals are solid.
This reminds me of the move in late October from 2.80 to 3.50. It was pretty fast, and I thought that after a couple of days, we'd hold the gains, only we fell right back to 2.80. We even made another stab at 3.45, only to fall back. Of course, then we hit this most recent rally. So I've still got a stinker bid out there to scoop up some shares in the low 4's, as nothing surprises me now. I'd like to think that the difference here is that we have so many catalysts in front of us.