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For the first time in over 5 years, Cliffs 50 week moving average is above its 200 week moving average.
50 week moving average $7.49
200 week moving average $7.45
This is a VERY BULLISH event for Cliffs, as the stock is trading far below fair value. The next weeks and months should be very positive for Cliffs.
Once above the $7.50 range, this should run nicely.
Ferrous
The expansion of the Peter Mitchell Mine was APPROVED by all relevant agencies, I believe in 2016.
Ferrous
Greg: The North Shore plant Cliffs owns in Silver Bay, MN is feed by ore mined at the Peter Mitchell mine in Babbit, MN. Cliffs does not use "old tailings piles". The lands of the Mesabi Trust makes up a large percentage of the Peter Mitchell Mine around 70%, Ore mined from these lands are processed into taconite pellets, which are then sold by Cliffs to its customers. Mesabi Trust receives a royalty payment quarterly from Cliffs based on the amount of pellets sold. This payment structure was updated as of 2017 and is far better for Mesabi Trust than the previous 15 tear agreement that expired at he end of 2016.
Cliffs announcement that it will build a new HBI (Hot Briquetted Iron) plant in Toledo, OH and that all feedstock for the new plant, 2.4 million tons per year, and will come from the North Shore plant. This plant can produce around 5.5 million tons of pellets per year. So the HBI plant in Toledo will consume around 44% of North Shores production. This is great news for the North Shore plant but also Mesabi Trust. Mesabi trust benefits totally from Cliffs thru the first three quarters of 2017, Mesabi Trust has received over $29 million in royalty payments from Cliffs. Without going into detail Mesabi Trust will continue to receive royalty payments for at least another 40+ years.
For what it is worth, the Peter Mitchell mine has over 200 years ore remaining at current production rates. This number was given at the SME conference held in Duluth, MN in 2015.
Ferrous
As far as potential takeover, I believe MT would make a lot of sense. They purchase nearly half of Cliffs US production already. It also would lock in a long term reserves for MT for over the next 50 years in the US. Just food for thouget.
Ferrous
Trump pushed off infrastructure bill until 2018!
All stocks related to this getting crushed today.
Ferrous
Something is up with Cliffs. Pushed back 4th quarter ER by two weeks vs prior year. Why?
Could be the following:
1. The Essar project, bankruptcy judge to rule on mineral rights on February 3rd. Also Mesabi Metallics needs to show judge at this hearing their financing to finish the project along with a buyer for the pellets. LG we all know wants this project, he may be working with Mesabi to take over this project. LG wants this not for taconite pellet production to be used in blast furnaces but for DR production to be used as feed stock for Electric Arc Mini Mills.
2. I believe this was a Huge quarter for Cliffs and will crush earnings.
3. Check out Mesabi Trust today (MSB) up 22.6%, this trust is paid a royalty by Cliffs for every ton of pellets produced from the ore body the trust controls. This is for pellets produced at Cliffs Northshore Plant in Silver Bay, MN. They produced over 1.8 Million tons in the 4th quarter and the trust received just under $10 million in the quarter from Cliffs.
Also looking to see if they raise 2017 guidance above the 19 million tons forecast in the 3rd quarter CC.
Wishing all GL.
Ferrous
That is FULL YEAR revenue NOT 3rd Quarter revenue. Stop posting misinformation on this board.
3rd Quarter of 2015, Cliffs had revenue just under 600 Million, it will be plus or minus that number again this year.
As for bringing back the dividend, not until the debt is below 1 billion.
Cliffs is recovering from its brush with bankruptcy, it is getting stronger each quarter and LG is doing a very great job, where a different CEO may have sent the company into bankruptcy.
LG is playing long ball vision. He sees the future and Cliffs is going to control that future.
Ferrous
Polymet holding Open House on October 26th from 2pm to 7pm.
Its all up on the GoPolymet site.
Ferrous
Wrong! Minnesota has the control over the Sulfate Level in Minnesota NOT the FED. For states that do not chose to have state control the Federal numbers control.
Minnesota has the LOWEST Sulfate Standard in the NATION and Polymet not only meets it it surpasses it.
The Feds do not have a lower standard than Minnesota.
You say final permits, be specific. Its the Permit To Mine that is the one that counts.
It CANNOT be submitted until the Land Exchange is Finalized.
If Polymet submitted the Permit to Mine Now, it could not be processed because they do not yet control the SURFACE RIGHTS, only the mineral rights. The sulfates standard has got not a thing to do with the Permit to Mine and never will!
The Sulfate Standard for Minnesota is 10mg/L. Polymets pilot program has the numbers as low as 5mg/L.
Ferrous
Lets be clear about Polymets Sulfate Numbers. They have SHOWN not just said that they can meet the current required sulfate numbers and meet them without a problem.
The current pilot project has been showing that for over TWO YEARS.
Polymet will be the only entity, public or private, in the State of Minnesota that will be in compliance regarding the current Sulfate Standard.
None of the current taconite mines can meet the current Sulfate Numbers. Polymet can and has shown as much.
This is a nonissue. You cannot have and injunction against company that has shown it can meet the current standard.
Ferrous
P A T I E C N E - Good things come to those who wait.
LG knows when, he has proven that since the January lows.
He has the upper hand and knows it. He wants to be able to inflict max pain on those who are still betting against Cliffs and who tried to force it into bankruptcy.
Ferrous
Oh and by the way LG called correctly that the ESSAR Project would never get completed, once again spot on. What is to come will be a bit ironic as Cliffs will end up with the Essar Project but at Pennies on the Dollar.
So much yet to come.
P.S: Regardless of who wins the presidency a MAJOR infrastructure build in the US is coming. Very big for Cliffs and the entire US steel industry,
Ferrous
To some on this board who seem unhappy with the secondary offering -- see you at $10.00 by 3rd quarter earnings.
LG has done and will continue to do a great job with this companies turn around. The actions of the prior management could very easily have forced this company into bankruptcy if the new management was someone other than LG. He may be brash but he does what he says he intends to do, something that is rare of CEO's today.
With this raise of $300 million to pay down debt, LG since he has become CEO has paid off nearly 2 BILLION in debt, got a 10 YEAR pellet contract with AM, removed the albatross that was Bloom Lake from around the neck of Cliffs, got out of the coal business and is focused on the US Pellet market and WILL be expanding into DRI which is the future for Cliffs.
When LTV in Hoyt Lakes, MN filed bankruptcy in 2001, Wilbur Ross bought it during bankruptcy, broke it up, made himself hundreds of millions of dollars and left over 1200 people with no jobs and no pensions (federal government got stuck paying the pensions and the workers received less than 50% of what they were owed) ain't America great.
LG on the other hand has saved this company, its workers and is making it a stronger company everyday. This will turn out to be one of the great turn around stories but could have very easily ended in bankruptcy.
I jumped all into company around $2.50 and have been LONG ever since, why? LG period. This story has much runway in front of it, sit back and relax.
Ferrous
Fully expect Polymet to do a reverse split of up to a 10 to 1 ratio, before the year is out or by end of 1st quarter 2017 at the latest.
It will be a part of the overall project financing as a 10 for 1 would bring the share price to around $7.80 after the reverse split and drop the fully diluted share count down to around 35 million.
Institutions cannot buy into stocks under $5.00 and in some cases under $10.00. Also options due not trade on stocks trading under $5.00 with rare exceptions.
Reverse splits are largerly viewed as a bad sign for a stock and most of the time for good reason. In Polymets case it will be a strong positive as this project FINALLY becomes a producing reality.
Lots and lots of $$$$$$$ to be made in the months and years ahead with this stock. If you are not versed in option trading - learn it! This is were the real money is made.
Will touch back in the near future.
Ferrous
For what its worth, here are my two cents.
Believe we open down hard tomorrow and test the 50 moving average at around $3.40, then bounce hard and close positive for the day.
This would form a bullish hammer hanging man candlestick for the day. This is a bullish reversal pattern that forms after a decline. Hammers also can mark bottoms or support levels. After a decline, hammers signal a bullish revival.
Have my order in for 200 contracts of the July 15 - $5.50 calls at $0.15 for tomorrow.
Truly do not see this stock breaking and closing below its 50 moving average.
We shall see what tomorrow brings.
Ferrous
Golden Cross Approaching, will occur this month.
Last time the 50 day crossed the 200 day was in November of 2013.
Very bullish setup in play and will only get stronger, chart looks great.
Shorts best cover prior to the cross or get crushed. If they are smart they will and only drive the share price higher into the cross and earnings.
Ferrous
After a nearly five year fall in share from $100 to $1.20, it appears Cliffs finally bottomed out in January of this year. Since then Cliffs is up 150% from its low,with much more room to the upside.
Management has done what it had to in order to save Cliffs from what otherwise would have been bankruptcy. While still carrying a large debt load, management has been creative in reducing outstanding debt over the last year in the face of small or non existent earnings.
With the US government finally taking measures against foreign dumping of steel. The domestic steel industry is slowly beginning to heal. This healing will and is already helping Cliffs and will only make things better going forward.
As for the Essar issue, the Essar Project is now dead. Essar will be forced to unload this white elephant. Cliffs alone or with a partner is the likely acquirer of the project at a substantial discount.
Cliffs understands that they must begin to domestically start producing a 90% pure DRI pellet as feed stock for all the Electric arc furnaces in North America. The EAF make up 65% of the steel making capacity vs just 35% for blast furnaces that use standard IO pellets. As time passes this difference will only get wider.
The future for feed stock to the North American steel industry is the 90% pure DRI pellet. The company that gets there first will have a major advantage. For Cliffs the implosion of the Essar project is the opportunity I believe LG has been waiting for and believe he will capitalize on. To be able to step in and set up a DRI facility from mine to processing center at a highly reduced cost structure than had they attempted this from scratch.
Time will only tell. After 4 plus years of watching Cliffs stock decline, 2016 is looking like a good year to be long the stock and options.
Ferrous
No link to share. However living in this area for nearly 50 years and understanding the shut down restart cycle. The Northshore plant is Cliffs lowest cost producing plant in North America and loads directly into the ships from the plant, no rail transport of pellets required.
As we approach the end of the winter shipping shutdown on the Great Lakes. The Northshore plant is always the first to start shipping pellets and its inventory on hand is very low. Time to start producing again.
As always I may be wrong but not if history holds.
Best of luck.
Ferrous
Cliffs will be announcing before the end of March, the restart of Northshore Mining in Silver Bay, MN on Lake Superior.
Great Lakes shipping season to start in second half of March and Northshore only has about 25% inventory of pellets on hand.
Restart will be in late March or early April. This should help move the share price north by a little.
Ferrous
Expect a Trading Halt around 12:45, prior to announcement.
Ferrous
Your big dumper is the MM who controls this stock. During times when there is no demand for this stock at the ASK. They will fill the investors looking to BUY at the BID or below with shares that they control.
The MM goes where the demand is, their job is to move shares.
I always Buy using a Bid order and I almost always get it filled.
Ferrous
That's possible but this time with the completion of the environmental review process for this project. I believe they have to show thru the share price just how monumental this accomplishment for Polymet is.
I am hoping for a multi day rally, also remember that Polymet will very shortly, as soon as next week be submitting for all the various permits. That in and of itself should cause the share price to rally further.
Goals and Objectives for the next 12 months
The environmental review and permitting process is managed by the regulatory agencies and, therefore, timelines are not within PolyMet's control. Given these circumstances, PolyMet's objectives include:
•MDNR Adequacy Decision on the Final EIS;
•USFS ROD on the Land Exchange;
•Submission of mining, air and water permit applications as the EIS process concludes;
•Completion of the Definitive Cost Estimate and Project Update; and
•Construction finance including commitment of debt prior to the issuance of permits, subject to typical conditions precedent such as receipt of permits.
Prior to receipt of permits, the Company will seek to secure construction financing that would be available upon receipt of key permits, with construction and ramp-up to commercial production anticipated to take approximately two years. The Company is currently in discussions with commercial banks and other financial institutions regarding construction finance
Ferrous
After the announcement tomorrow the share price better set a new 52 week high above $1.37, it should break above $1.56.
Ferrous
To be expected. People who bought at the open and made 25% in less than two hours.
Ferrous
It is almost two years to the day after the PFEIS completed its comment period and the stock rallied from around $0.95 to a high of $1.56.
Tomorrow will make the end of the Environmental Review after 10 years. That alone should push the stock north of the prior high of $1.56, can we break $2? I would like to see that but I do not think we will.
Ferrous
Wait till tomorrow when the Adequacy Decision becomes final.
This move are people trying to get a position in the stock prior to announcement.
This will be a multi day move higher in the stock.
Ferrous
Dayton has will announce Adequacy decision on Thursday. As reported on Eyewitness News.
Ferrous
I would like to see the stock north of $1 before the Adequacy announcement Friday.
Ferrous
You and me both.
Hang in there!
Ferrous
To all, Show a little PATIENCE with the stock price. We all will get a nice price move shortly.
Ferrous
Another thing, Polymet has spent 10 YEARS and over $100 MILLION on this Environmental Review only to have it published with the EPA blessing and then deem it INADEQUATE, I just don't think so.
Whoever made the point about the March 1st Elections may have a very good point as to this delay.
With the current state of the Iron Mining Industry on the Range, if this is deemed INADEQUATE watch the Range turn a very bright RED.
A Democratic stronghold, stabbed in the back by a DFL governor.
Still believe it is all Politics by Dayton, A Decision of Adequacy will be issued next week. He has to let the process move forward, If he wants to screw around with this project he has stated that it will be in the Permitting Phase. As have the Environmentalists.
Ferrous
As Mr. Landwehr stated "I would not publish the FEIS if I did not think it was Adequate". The EPA is OK with the FEIS, they want some minor issues addressed during Permitting.
If the decision is that the FEIS in NOT Adequate, the DNR will lose all credibility as a non bias agency.
Also as I have stated before all HELL will break loose on the range and within the DFL party.
Nolan will be gone in the 8th district and Minnesota could very well go Republican in November.
I truly do not believe that Dayton would be this stupid! We will know by next Friday.
Ferrous
Still believe that announcement will be on Friday but possibly after close of the market. We shall see.
Ferrous
Mr. Landwehr's last statement of record said that by the end of February a Record of Decision on the Adequacy of the EIS would be issued.
If for some reason this had to be delayed, the DNR would have shortly after the 30 day comment period ended in December issued a release stating so.
If Polymet gets knee capped by the DNR this week in the form of a delay, all HELL is going to break loose on the range and in the DFL party.
The governor as never said anything about delaying the Record of Decision but has stated that he may inject himself into the Permitting Process.
Polymet has spent over $100 million dollars and 10 years on this environmental review. It is now time for it to end. I believe it will on Friday.
Ferrous
Why?
Ferrous
If history holds, the DNR has almost without exception released news on Fridays in the morning before markets open.
So I believe we will hear news on the Adequacy Decision tomorrow or next Friday the 26th as Mr. Landwehr has given himself to the end of February to release this information.
Once the news is out it will be interesting to see how the share price responds.
Its sounds like after the Adequacy Decision is released that Polymet within a week will be dropping all or most of the Permits needed for the project. Also I do not know the timing but the US Forest Service will be issuing its Final Record of Decision on the Land Exchange hopefully in early March.
I do not expect any delays regarding the Adequacy Decision from the DNR as Mr. Dayton has made it clear that if he decides to interject himself into the process it will be during the Permit to Mine.
Wishing the best for all.
Ferrous
No one is buying at the ASK, everyone right now is buying at the BID. Until the announcement by the DNR all buyers are putting in lower bids to accumulate shares and those shares are coming from the MM who controls this stock for now, until new buyers show up.
Of all the stock of this company I have bought over the years, 95% has been with a BID price order.
Ferrous
Just an FYI to all.
The USFS Draft Record of Decision on the Land Exchange.
The Objection Period ends at close of business on Monday, January 4th 2016.
The MN DNR will be issuing its Adequacy Decision on the week of February 15th 2016. This is the next BIG date and hopefully we see a meaningful raise in share price leading into this event.
Glad to see 2015 ending and looking forward to what 2016 brings.
Here is wishing all a Happy New Year 2016!
Ferrous
Paula Maccabee of Water Legacy has been hitting every news outlet she can find stating "The federal agency still has considerable authority to decide whether the project qualifies for permits"
On this point she is DEAD WRONG, as far as the Permit to Mine the MNDNR issues.
Of course she contends the project doesn't qualify. Her group could not stop it in the Environmental Review phase, so what the hell do you expect her to say know? We give up! The Anti's motto is "To Delay Is to Deny"
If the EPA had real problems with the FEIS, they would have never allowed it to be published.
The EPA has some remaining concerns, not objections, big difference. Their concerns are ones the Anti's brought up near the end of the FEIS, They are 1. Ground Water Flow from the Mine. The Anti's NON geologist stated that ground water from Polymet could flow towards the BWCA only under nearly impossible conditions, an engineered solution was proposed and accepted by the EPA on how this Hypothetical issue could be dealt with. 2. Health Risks from Mineral Fibers, Certain medical groups of doctors and nurses throughout MN, lobbied Mr. Dayton to do a full blown review of this issue outside of the FEIS and the commissioners of Health, DNR and MPCA told Mr Dayton it was not needed as this was covered in the FEIS. 3. Impacts on wetlands. Due to the removal of wetlands that currently exist over the mineral deposits to be mined. Which Polymet has to replace at a ratio of at least 1.5 to 1. Issue 4. Impacts on Moose. As many of you probably don't know the moose population in Northern Minnesota is and has been declining for many years. This point made me laugh, talk about grasping at straws.
Paula Maccabee and Water Legacy, a group mine you that was formed for one reason only, and that was to stop Polymets proposed mine and is funded in large part from out of state environmentalist concerns.
They are growing desperate but will not give up as long as the MONEY keeps flowing in.
But the grounds on which they argue that Polymet doesn't qualify, are beginning to crumble.
Focus in the next step. Record of Decision of Adequacy in Mid February.
I know it sucks but the share price will take care of itself in time. Just remember a lot of the big boys in the market are gone until the new year.
Ferrous
The EPA's endorsement of the FEIS now clears the way for the MNDNR to issue its Record of Decision of Adequacy for the FEIS in early or mid February. After this occurs the 10 year environmental review process is COMPLETE!
Shortly after the adequacy decision is made, Polymet will start the submission process of all permits required for the project. The total number I believe is over 20 but its the Permit To Mine that is really the one that counts. By State Statue after the MNDNR receives the Permit To Mine application from Polymet they have 150 Days to issue or deny. Assuming Polymet files by March 1st 2016 the MNDNR would have to respond not later than August 1st 2016.
The environmentalists have LOST the environmental review process and have now turned their attention to the permitting process.
If the Permit to Mine is issued to Polymet, only then can the ANTI's file a lawsuit. This is very important to remember because any construction finance Polymet lines up will only be released when they are issued the Permit to Mine.
Also, I believe if the Anti's do file a lawsuit after the Permit to Mine is issued, they may be required to post a very LARGE bond to protect Polymet from incurring financial harm while the suit works its way thru the courts and if the outcome is that the Anti's lose the case.
We have now passed a MAJOR point in the overall process. Hopefully sooner rather than later the share price will begin to reflect this.
Merry Christmas and Happy 2016 to all.
Ferrous