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I think Powell's words are just the excuse for a correction to be put in here.
Nasdaq of course is already down about 12.2% at this morning's low compared to intraday high on Feb. 16.
Microcap index (IWC) is down 12.4% from recent highs in 2nd week of Feb.
Smallcap index (IWM) is down 9.3% right now from similar Feb highs.
Midcaps (MDY) down 6.8% from late Feb. highs.
SPY was down about 5.5% at yesterday's LOD compared to highs in mid-Feb.
EV sector -- You can say that again. I saw my fave FIII (and very big holding) way down near the bottom and assumed it was one of the biggest losers, but i was amazed to see that it was actually one of the "best" performers, losing only 32% value, while other names are down 50-60%!
What a sector massacre!
The word must have gone out among the cabal of hedge funds that colluded to destroy it. But i guess you have know the secret password / handshake to be part of that group....
Oil stocks - Congrats and glad to hear you're still in this sector, R59.
After being burned so badly two years ago by the divestment move that tanked so many fossil-fuel energy stocks (finally making some good money off BCEI), i haven't had the heart to get back into it.
But obviously in retrospect it was one of the best sectors to invest in after oilprice briefly went negative last year.... Ha, from 0 to 60+ in record time!
BGFV-- yet the 83 cents EPS is being reported at S.Alpha as a miss by 7 cents given some expectations out there for 90 cents this qtr.
BGFV - key KiK, i've been super-busy with the coming house-building project. Only just saw BGFV's ER release on their financials. Don't have any shares and don't have time to compare everything.
One thing stood out: the guidance for Q1 of 47-53 cents EPS, which compares super-favorably with last year. Hard to see BGFV not making over 2.00 EPS this year. Surely that deserves a shareprice over $20 sometime later this year as things unfold and their cash pile grows.
I almost bought shares last week on the dip to $13s... Shoulda, coulda...!
SRTS - it's hard to know what's going on with a stock on a "monumental" day like this, when nearly 25M shares have traded in a single day.... is it mainly day-traders or algos churning the float? Some big accumulation --or pumping to sell a big institutional position without crashing the stock?
Who knows?
But surely there was good news in that media release last night about higher Medicare reimbursement going forward....
Hey bb, have you seen the film Ex Machina? Worth seeing...
SRTS - this seems to be by far biggest trading volume ever on this stock, over 10.9M shares already traded, going back at least five years....
Absolutely dwarfs all previous trading....
Wonder if it's being pumped on reddit / wallstreetbets.
SRTS - that's a good buy, and now finally a positive reaction today to last night's ER-- stock moved all the way back up from your buy-point to $6 briefly today...
Monster volume, too!
Stock traded around 33k yesterday, then some 70k after-hours,
now 10 million shares today!
AMRK i bought some more at 28.70 on the fade (maybe an algo attempt to fill chart-gap below today's high open?)
Will buy more if it drops back into 27s....
Crazy low P/E here on even just the very conservative side of annualized EPS.
AMRK - popping on great guidance issued yesterday AH for the co.'s fiscal Q3 ending Mar 31, 2021 (actual ER will be in May).
https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/NASDAQ/a-mark-precious-metals-AMRK/stock-news/84437890/a-mark-precious-metals-provides-financial-guidance
SRTS popping after hours on some promising developments in ER just filed including better Medicare reimbursement rates, etc.
I had bought at 3.65, sold (too early) at 5.10 and within several minutes it was trading relatively strong volumes in mid $6s....
I really like their SRT medical tech, had two basal cell skin cancers gently burned off, excellent cosmetic results compared to Mohs surgery and the standard "cut and stitch" protocols in dermatology clinics worldwide.
If this drops back down i'll probably buy again.
It's generally a sleepy little stock.....
I just posted the following to another message board, but it should be posted here, too:
FIII has really been in a downward trend with the mkt selloff, especially in tech and the EV space (which saw such huge appreciation this past Fall-Winter and now lots of profit-taking).
FIII, as some of us have posted, is a SPAC nearing completion of a merger with ELMS [Electric Last Mile Solutions], an upcoming manufacturer of the Class 1 (up to 6k lb loads) Urban Delivery van, which will produce them in the already EV retro-fitted former GM Hummer plant in Indiana.
After subtracting the $7,500 US govt tax credit, the new delivery van from ELMS will sell for only $25k, matching the cost of all the gasoline-powered vans in that class, and of course the far fewer parts and no fuel-consumption (except for daily recharging) will mean FAR LOWER COSTS for fleet buyers and various small business owners.
The co-founder and CEO of ELMS is a chap named James Taylor, who had a wide variety of senior exec positions with GM (head of Cadillac, Hummer, etc.) and prior EV start-up companies.
There's a new interview with Taylor out today, conducted by the Absolute Return podcast (not the Autoline interview with Taylor from several days ago). It was put out today by FIII on the newswire as a printed transcript. That transcript, unfortunately, appears in very raw form, with obvious mistakes by the voice-transcribing software and no editing whatsoever (e.g., to remove all the "you knows," correct some run-on sentences, inconsistent grammar, etc.).
But check out these three especially important sections from Taylor, wherein he speaks of 1) ELMS' much lower breakeven threshold for profitability compared to other EV makers, and 2) the demand for the upcoming ELMS class 1 Urban Delivery van, and 3) he visualizes a big future for ELMS:
-------------
"...our business model is different than all of the rest of those guys [in the heavier class EV trucks and in the upcoming EV pickup trucks] in the sense of using existing proven platforms and hardware. So, coming off of an existing base [for the chassis etc.] drastically reduces the investment. ... Looking at return on investment [ROI] -- and no shots taken, but Arrival or Lordstown, you know, pick any of them, and you're sort of downstroke of cost center... you know, $700 to $800 million, $2 billion in Rivian space. At some point in time, you have to pay that investment back. [By contrast:] We have a very, very low entry cost in our particular case, we're showing $116 [million] to get into the first models. So, you know, our [...] margin to break even and become cashflow positive is very short and different than the other guys --[entailing] a lower number of units or a lower period of time before we're in a pretty healthy cash position and producing, you know, very large amounts of cash, which should turn into both returns and stock prices."
-------------
"if you guys look at any of the forecasts that are out there for this delivery space, they all have to be understated because nobody saw the increase of going what's on an e-commerce and then therefore the demands on delivery. [... ] Whatever [growth] curves we have in our [slide] deck, whatever [growth] curves you look up from any third parties, they got to be wrong in how crazy e-commerce is going to go and this last mile delivery. So, I think we're in a bulls-eye space in this -- a truly, literally last lift, last mile. The term 'last mile' has got a pretty broad usage. It's become almost a term or a thing versus the last mile literally, and because our vehicles are the small ones and they're almost the shuttles, they truly are the last delivery leg in this long chain of logistics. So that space is so over demanded right now [i.e., there's huge demand] that customers we've talked to, if you had 5,000 thousand tomorrow, [are saying] 'we will take them.' If you have 10,000 thousand, 'I'll take them.' They're hungry to get their hands on, of course, now gas [powered vans], there are no electric [yet], but any hardware they can get their hands on."
---------------------
"[...] Just so you understand the SPAC money isn't guaranteed, right? It's sitting in trust. They [Forum III] still have to go through a vote process to actually, you know, issue that money. So, there could be a swing on whether that $250 [million] in the SPAC all comes our way or only a portion of it. So, let's plan best case: If all of the SPAC money came our way, [because] there were no redemptions. Second part of that is that the money that we've raised outside of that all comes in. Then we definitely have, you know, a pot of money in excess of what we had said we would need to do the plan that we forecasted. So, let's hope that all comes true. And if it does, then we will be able to (A) move some of our product forward, (B) add other variations, other flavors, other models that we didn't originally have in the plan. [Possibility] (C) is M&A and as you've seen in our model there, we have relationships with some upfitting companies, as well as the data companies. And we have also… line of sight or target eyes on some opportunities, say in the M&A space; you know, we could take on other minority or majority share ownerships and bring those closer into us than using say a traditional supplier model. So those are some ideas of what we would use the so-called extra cash for, but that's a good problem, having extra cash."
FIII - has really been in a downward trend with the mkt selloff, especially in tech and the EV space (which saw such huge appreciation this past Fall-Winter).
FIII, as some of us have posted, is a SPAC nearing completion of a merger with ELMS [Electric Last Mile Solutions], an upcoming manufacturer of the Class 1 (up to 6k lb loads) Urban Delivery van, which will produce them in the already EV retro-fitted former GM Hummer plant in Indiana.
After subtracting the $7,500 US govt tax credit, the new delivery van from ELMS will sell for only $25k, matching the cost of all the gasoline-powered vans in that class, and of course the far fewer parts and no fuel-consumption (except for daily recharging) will mean FAR LOWER COSTS for fleet buyers and various small business owners.
The co-founder and CEO of ELMS is a chap named James Taylor, who had a wide variety of senior exec positions with GM (head of Cadillac, Hummer, etc.) and prior EV start-up companies.
There's a new interview with Taylor out today, conducted by the Absolute Return podcast (not the Autoline interview with Taylor from several days ago). It was put out today by FIII on the newswire as a printed transcript. That transcript, unfortunately, appears in very raw form, with obvious mistakes by the voice-transcribing software and no editing whatsoever (e.g., to remove all the "you knows," correct some run-on sentences, inconsistent grammar, etc.).
But check out these three especially important sections from Taylor, wherein he speaks of 1) ELMS' much lower breakeven threshold for profitability compared to other EV makers, and 2) the demand for the upcoming ELMS class 1 Urban Delivery van, and 3) he visualizes a big future for ELMS:
-------------
"...our business model is different than all of the rest of those guys [in the heavier class EV trucks and in the upcoming EV pickup trucks] in the sense of using existing proven platforms and hardware. So, coming off of an existing base [for the chassis etc.] drastically reduces the investment. ... Looking at return on investment [ROI] -- and no shots taken, but Arrival or Lordstown, you know, pick any of them, and you're sort of downstroke of cost center... you know, $700 to $800 million, $2 billion in Rivian space. At some point in time, you have to pay that investment back. [By contrast:] We have a very, very low entry cost in our particular case, we're showing $116 [million] to get into the first models. So, you know, our [...] margin to break even and become cashflow positive is very short and different than the other guys --[entailing] a lower number of units or a lower period of time before we're in a pretty healthy cash position and producing, you know, very large amounts of cash, which should turn into both returns and stock prices."
-------------
"if you guys look at any of the forecasts that are out there for this delivery space, they all have to be understated because nobody saw the increase of going what's on an e-commerce and then therefore the demands on delivery. [... ] Whatever [growth] curves we have in our [slide] deck, whatever [growth] curves you look up from any third parties, they got to be wrong in how crazy e-commerce is going to go and this last mile delivery. So, I think we're in a bulls-eye space in this -- a truly, literally last lift, last mile. The term 'last mile' has got a pretty broad usage. It's become almost a term or a thing versus the last mile literally, and because our vehicles are the small ones and they're almost the shuttles, they truly are the last delivery leg in this long chain of logistics. So that space is so over demanded right now [i.e., there's huge demand] that customers we've talked to, if you had 5,000 thousand tomorrow, [are saying] 'we will take them.' If you have 10,000 thousand, 'I'll take them.' They're hungry to get their hands on, of course, now gas [powered vans], there are no electric [yet], but any hardware they can get their hands on."
---------------------
"[...] Just so you understand the SPAC money isn't guaranteed, right? It's sitting in trust. They [Forum III] still have to go through a vote process to actually, you know, issue that money. So, there could be a swing on whether that $250 [million] in the SPAC all comes our way or only a portion of it. So, let's plan best case: If all of the SPAC money came our way, [because] there were no redemptions. Second part of that is that the money that we've raised outside of that all comes in. Then we definitely have, you know, a pot of money in excess of what we had said we would need to do the plan that we forecasted. So, let's hope that all comes true. And if it does, then we will be able to (A) move some of our product forward, (B) add other variations, other flavors, other models that we didn't originally have in the plan. [Possibility] (C) is M&A and as you've seen in our model there, we have relationships with some upfitting companies, as well as the data companies. And we have also… line of sight or target eyes on some opportunities, say in the M&A space; you know, we could take on other minority or majority share ownerships and bring those closer into us than using say a traditional supplier model. So those are some ideas of what we would use the so-called extra cash for, but that's a good problem, having extra cash."
BW - one of the few green things on my watchlist; some good news on contracts this a.m.
https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/NYSE/babcock-and-wilcox-enter-BW/stock-news/84405353/b-w-thermal-awarded-13-million-in-new-contracts-a
The IWC microcap index is down 5.7% right now-- that's more than half of a "correction" in the first 15 minutes of trading (and pre-mkt selloff). I could feel it happening yesterday afternoon-- suddenly all sorts of names on my watchlist just plummeted from nice intraday highs.
FRX - another SPAC that completed its merger, getting delayed love here, trading now in upper $17s. I had shares of this one at 10.40 or so, sold far too early when i thought Triller was going to be their target and Triller had some bad news...
But even after FRX closed on the merger, it barely moved 10-15%. Now way up!
Some of these delayed stock-moves on good news are impressive.....
RSVAU - i hope some folks are still in this. Several weeks back when Gilead brought it to our attention i had a bid for $11.11 and just missed getting shares by about a dime one day. Kind of forgot about it, assumed the bid would fill, but stock moved up to 12-14 and now BOOM!
Congrats to those holding!
Good thoughts there, FUNMAN, with which i totally agree
And i agree that:
>NEPT is reinventing itself
Just taking longer than most folks (incl. moi) thought....
But being vegan i'm a huge fan of the plant-based approach that CEO Mike has taken, and glad to see that as an emphasis for Unilever, too.
If NEPT heads down into 1.40s on more serious market sell-off, i'll likely be buying again, though maybe not buying as big (gotta wait for a few other stocks to do what i think they'll do before i'm gonna make another substantial investment with NEPT).
OT - SoCal is so beatiful-- i grew up in Westwood (West L.A.) and there's so much charm there and in other sites near and not-so-far (e.g., down to La Jolla / San Diego, east to Pasadena and the mtns of San Bernadino Nat'l Forest, a 4-hr ride up to eastern Sierras).
If i had my druthers, i'd still be in southern (well, central) Calif. in our longtime S.Barbara home, but it was just getting too expensive and dangerous up there in the hills (we lost 1/8th of an acre to the 2009 Jesusita Fire), plus $900/month water-bills toward the end of the 6-yr drought, and the ever-present "Big One" earthquake danger.
Plus, main reason, we wanted to come to AZ to be closer to my wife's daughter and our grandkids.
Gotta say that i do love many aspects of AZ-- "land of fascinating formations" in the low and high deserts and mountains, a nice complement to all those beautiful Calif. formations (from SoCal and NoCal beaches to gardens to mountains).
Meanwhile, am praying for all those in central and eastern USA being so HARD HIT by the deep freeze afflicting so many states and shutting off power to MILLIONS of people (not to mention pets and animals in the wild)!
Nice to have that $8M CAD windfall come into their cash coffers.
After an 8-month hold, I sold all 23k shares from 2.10 to 3.02 earlier last week, averaging about $2.60 per sell, a rather miniscule gain from my cost-avg of 2.28 over the months.
I missed the big, brief pop to the $5s and $4s pre-mkt last week, but i just couldn't trust the stock not to plunge after what i suspected would be another disappointing earnings report.
I left SO MUCH MONEY on table
--by buying too high in mid-July 2020 in upper $2s,
--by not swing-trading those daily 20-cent up-down moves throughout the Fall,
--by not selling upspikes in Oct & Nov,
--by not buying in Dec. at $1.50s when I almost bought an extra 7k shares,
--then by selling all shares from 2.10 to $3.02, and missing by 1-2 days that huge spike in pre-mkt on 2/10.
In sum, that’s easily over $60k-80k missed by not doing a few of those things!
But of course now i'm glad i sold for at least that 14% gain, given the release of that dismal E.R. on Monday.
Yeah, the conf. call has some notable silver linings, but it looks like another 2-3 qtrs before we see the kind of positive earnings news (with Mood Ring etc.) to significantly re-set NEPT higher into the $3s or $4s again.
There's always the possibility of another crazy momo up-move like seen last week!--especially on any USA legalization news.
BW - the fast rising 20dma (6.48) and 26dma (6.19) should provide technical support, but if it dips lower, say to test the 6.00 level, i'll buy more. Also i'm looking at the weekly (not just daily) chart and seeing the 9dma there is at 5.70, which may come into play if the markets sell off harder.
Like so many hundreds of stocks, this one BW has seen huge gains off last year's lows, so some profit-taking expected.
But fundamentals look good here, as that discerning chap Henrik Alex showed in his S.Alpha article....
Yes, steel prices up, too! But it's a moot point given no contractors there to build with it.
>But either way, hope you build yourself a home you luv..
Thanks. The parcel has some great views of Sedona's red rocks to the north, northeast and east. And it will be fun to have the grandchildren next door.... I hope to succeed in getting the twin teen grandsons away from their video games onto some of those fabulous nature trails....
Strongly leaning toward having a metal roof (there are so many wonderful colors and styles to choose from) over my "traditional" choice of a spanish-style tile roof, since i plan to have solar panels installed and a metal roof is less prone to problems with solar panel-installation.
Lumber - i've been keeping a close eye on this since my wife and i are going to be building a new home in northern Arizona, hopefully starting in several months with breaking ground.
I hope the letter that NAHB Chairman Fowke wrote to the Biden administration the other day sees some quick response....
Btw, i had investigated the possibility of using steel-frame construction, but in the area we want to build (Sedona, AZ) there simply aren't enough contractors who know how to work with it.
In other areas steel-frame home construction can make a lot of sense:
1) more resilient in earthquake areas;
2) not flammable;
3) termite-proof;
4) and some other reasons i can't recall.....
Was buying and re-buying some names today:
BW at 6.65 (a Henrik Alex "buy with both hands" fave at S.Alpha)
LMB at 11.88 (this would be about the 6th swing trade)
HYRE at 11.52 (after a recent swing trade from 11.31 to 12.88)
AMYZF / AMY.v -- up another 25% to around $2.00, hit HOD earlier at 2.12. I believe it's their all-time high price, at least going back 10 years (when their high was about 80 cents).
Amazing story going on with AMY's lithium-battery recycle prowess.
Kicking myself i didn't buy back in the low 0.30s but i thought the buying spike (like several in the past) would be just temporary and i'd have chance to buy back in teens or 0.20s...
OT - littlejohn, speaking of nuts, for decades many top Pentagon brass and former top brass have thought the over-bloated Defense budget was completely nuts. (By the way, when you add military expenditures from the Dept. of Energy and elsewhere, the US "defense budget" was already over $1 Trillion several years ago, not merely "$600 billion.")
I used to be a longtime subscriber to the newsletter from CDI / Center for Defense Information, published by numerous active and retired top US military officers, including 4-star generals et alia.
They were utterly disgusted about "the Iron Triangle" of 1) greedy corporate contractors, 2) their relentless lobbyists, and 3) their "bought-n-paid for" shills throughout Congress ("Ah, the US Congress--the best that money can buy") that kept giving these defense contractors huge deals for unneeded and/or poorly made planes, other vehicles, weaponry, infamously pricey coffee machines and toilet seats (see, e.g., https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1986-07-30-vw-18804-story.html), etc etc.
Meanwhile, as seen in the Iraq war begun in 2003, far too many US soldiers didn't even have adequate, up-to-date protective helmets, vests, etc.-- so the soldiers' parents or spouses had to try to buy them on the private market. Why was there no money for these essential, life-saving items, when so much had been wasted over the years on unneeded extra B-2 Stealth Bombers, the scandalous V-22 Osprey, Bradley Fighting Vehicle, etc.--and yes, those $37 screws, $7k coffee machines, $640 toilets (in early 1980s dollars).
The CDI regularly published articles on how the Pentagon budget should be slashed by at least one-third.
Mind you, these weren't Gandhian peaceniks, but current and former Pentagon top brass writing this stuff, disgusted by the greed, corruption and waste of billions of taxpayer dollars that could have been better spent elsewhere....
Edit: here's an item from my files, dating to Fall 2016, an excerpt from a Reuters news article:
A recent Reuters investigation by Scot J. Paltrow sums up the shocking mess. The Pentagon is “largely incapable of keeping track of its vast stores of weapons, ammunition and other supplies; thus it continues to spend money on new supplies it doesn't need and on storing others long out of date. It has amassed a backlog of more than half a trillion dollars in unaudited contracts with outside vendors; how much of that money paid for actual goods and services delivered isn't known. And it repeatedly falls prey to fraud and theft that can go undiscovered for years, often eventually detected by external law enforcement agencies.”
AMYZF / AMY.v - wow, this lithium-ion battery recycler, which i've mentioned on this board before, now trading on good volume up in $1.50s, a 10-bagger since mid Dec.
I used to own a ton of shares of this Canadian co. back in 2011 on its promise of becoming the first manganese miner in the USA with its property in AZ, but the feasibility report was a big surprising disappointment, and the stock within a year or so fell from around 60-70 cents to 1 penny or less. I finally got back about 1/3 of my original money when it briefly popped up to around 0.32 in late 2016 as i recall, on news that it had successfully demonstrated how to recycle crucial ingredients in the lithium-ion batteries in hybrid and EV vehicles.
I rebought only a small amount of shares, 8k at 0.14 level about a year or two ago. Should have bought a lot more with the mkt's big sector-move into EV space.
Results for AMY have only gotten more impressive in that recycle-tech process, and their old manganese mine in western AZ is also now getting renewed love from the US govt as an essential metal.
Stock has been crazy since Dec., looks like a very steep staircase up up and away!
If it dips back down, this one is a buy.
With their recycle tech, they are effectively a very cheap, effective, safe "miner" of the crucial ingredients needed for EV batteries.
FIII - another major owner filed a 13g ownership statement today for shares of the SPAC FIII (which is supposed to announce acquisition of EV delivery-van manufacturer ELMS no later than end of March, could be any week now):
BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT UK, Ltd., now owns 1,665,354 shares, or 5.21% of shares.
This is on top of the filing from 2/3/21 notifying that Alpine Global now owns 8.3% of shares-- 2,135,268 shares.
ELMS already has commitment from major players to purchase at least 30k vehicles in 2021-2..... Lots of seasoned mgmt talent running this co., and they'll likely get support from new US Transportation Sec. Buttigieg, since their converted Hummer plant is in a suburb of the mayoral district he used to oversee. Already ELMS is being granted tax breaks from state of Indiana.
Some who've been carefully studying the EV space consider FIII / ELMS among the most undervalued and "ready to roll" names in the U.S.
The future of oil at Royal Dutch Shell-- interesting short read:
www.Axios.com
Shell peers into a future with less oil
Ben Geman, author of Generate
Royal Dutch Shell said Thursday that its oil production peaked in 2019 and is expected to decline by roughly 1%-2% annually as the company diversifies into lower-carbon energy products and business lines.
Why it matters: It signals how some of the world's most powerful oil-and-gas companies are positioning themselves for a world taking climate change more seriously and responding to calls from investors and activists to do more.
Driving the news: The news arrived in Shell's wider update Thursday morning on its pledge last year to become a "net-zero emissions" business by 2050 while, it hopes, staying attractive for shareholders.
The company intends to raise dividends by roughly 4% annually.
Shell said its carbon emissions likely peaked in 2018.
It also laid out steeper targets for reducing carbon intensity — that is, emissions per unit output.
Shell plans to cut intensity by 6%-8% by 2023, 20% by 2030, and 45% by 2035.
The big picture: Europe-based multinationals all have aggressive long-term emissions targets and are moving more deeply into areas like renewables, power services and carbon removal — even as fossil fuels remain their dominant businesses and investments.
On Thursday morning, Shell said it plans to expand its electric vehicle charging network from roughly 60,000 charge points today to 500,000 by 2025.
It aims to sell 560 terawatt-hours a year of power to homes and businesses by 2030, double today's levels.
Shell is also eyeing the expansion of its hydrogen and biofuels businesses, among other efforts. That includes developing "integrated hydrogen hubs to serve industry and heavy-duty transport."
CEO Ben van Beurden said their overall plans will "drive down carbon emissions and will deliver value for our shareholders, our customers and wider society."
What they're saying: Several activist groups were critical.
“We welcome this step with cautious optimism. However, Shell’s new targets still won’t lead to Paris-consistent emissions levels,” said the activist shareholder group Follow This.
The environmental group Friends of the Earth said Shell's efforts are insufficient.
"Only if CO2 emissions are to decrease drastically in absolute terms in the coming years we can prevent dangerous climate change," the group said.
And Bloomberg notes that both Friends of the Earth and Greenpeace believe the company is "leaning too heavily on reforestation and carbon capture and storage."
Yes, but: Via Reuters, Adam Matthews of the Church of England Pensions Board, which works with companies on climate, said: "Shell’s net zero target is industry-leading and comprehensive as it covers all their carbon emissions."
AMRK - i finally picked up some shares of this one near close at 30.85 when a bid filled. I like these comments from Kingdom Capital over at S.Alpha, where he's written a couple of articles about AMRK. In the comments thread he observes:
Kingdom Capital 10 Feb 2021
Thoughts on the call:
[Mgmt] Confirmed the past month has been unprecedented in terms of customer acquisition and demand. Having integrated supply chains (mints to consumer) gives them a huge edge over competition. They have a lot more capacity coming online at Silvertowne mint in the next few weeks. Q3 is going to be really good, and their customer base just increased dramatically.
Further to the comments below, I can't get past how good this JM Bullion deal is for AMRK. Right now, it looks like they'll issue about 1.5m shares, and be able to finance around half the cash portion with cash on hand. So they're probably looking at $50m of debt to do the deal, lets say at 6% to get a round $3m of annual interest expense. So AMRK and JM combined should be approaching $140m of TTM pre-tax annualized earnings, before you factor in some synergies, or around $110m post-tax. So with 8.5m shares, that's $13/share [EPS].
Put another way, at $35/share, post deal they'll be around a $300m market cap with minimal leverage, and earnings over $100m per year. This acquisition managed to be attractive to investors despite the low multiple already being given to AMRK. Hats off to Management on a great deal.
>Hardly a spactacular performance.
Did you mean to write "Shaqtacular "?
(Recall who's on the directorial board of FRX)
Thanks, Linus, for the mention of WeBull. I've been wondering why stocks are trading as early as 6 a.m. ET. Here on Mountain Time in AZ, that's 4 a.m. I usually wake up early, but only occasionally THAT early.
It would be good to have some funds in WeBull so i can make the occasional very early-hours trade!
FRX - yeah, i was about 80% sure that they'd acquire Triller, not Beachbody.
Here's the PR:
FRX: $11.50, +0.74 (6.9%)
The Beachbody Company, a Leader in Digital Fitness Streaming and Nutrition Solutions, to Become Publicly Traded Company
February 10 2021 - 06:00AM
Business Wire
The Beachbody Company, Forest Road Acquisition Corp. and Myx Fitness Enter Three-Way Merger
The Transaction Values the Combined Company at $2.9 Billion and is Expected to Add Over $420 Million of Cash to the Balance Sheet, Including a Committed PIPE of $225 Million, Led by Institutional Investors Including Fidelity Management & Research Company LLC and Fertitta Capital
With This Transaction, Beachbody Will Be Poised to Scale its Growing Platform of Over 2.6 Million Paid Digital Subscribers into the Connected Fitness Space While Also Accelerating International Expansion, Enhanced Innovation and Opportunistic M&A
The Beachbody Company Group, LLC (“The Beachbody Company,” “Beachbody” or “the Company”) announced today its intention to become a public company by entering into a definitive three-way merger agreement with Forest Road Acquisition Corp. (NYSE: FRX) (“Forest Road”), a publicly traded special purpose acquisition company, and Myx Fitness Holdings, LLC (“Myx Fitness” or “Myx”), an at-home connected fitness platform featuring an industry leading bike and home studio.
Upon closing of the business combination transaction, The Beachbody Company will be the parent company of three premium content and technology-driven businesses: Beachbody On Demand (BOD), Openfit and Myx. The transaction is expected to close in the second quarter of 2021 and the combined company will be listed on the NYSE under a new ticker symbol, “BODY”.
Beachbody will continue to be led by Carl Daikeler, Beachbody’s co-founder, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer and Jon Congdon, co-founder of Beachbody and CEO of Openfit. Forest Road’s strategic advisor Kevin Mayer, former CEO of TikTok and visionary leader behind Disney+, will join the combined company’s Board of Directors. Beachbody management and shareholders are rolling over 100% of their equity stake and will own approximately 84% of the pro forma business at close.
Combined Company Overview
As a leader in digital fitness streaming and nutrition solutions, Beachbody is well-positioned to capitalize on the increased demand for at-home health and wellness offerings and will further invest to drive accelerated customer acquisition, expand internationally and pursue attractive, high-return M&A opportunities.
With brands such as P90X®, INSANITY® and 21 Day Fix®, Beachbody has consistently expanded its market share over the past two decades through its proven model of integrating the most comprehensive library of premium fitness content with easy-to-follow nutrition guidance and supplements. Through the BOD and Openfit platforms, the Company has developed a diverse offering of live and on-demand content as well as nutrition solutions that reach a passionate and loyal community, including more than 2.6 million paid digital subscribers.
With the addition of Myx, the Company's portfolio will expand to include a connected fitness offering that provides a holistic and innovative on and off-bike solution with workouts that are personalized based on machine learning and heart rate data. With an attractive price point of $1,299, Myx sold over 27,000 bikes in its first year of operation, and has a highly engaged customer base of users who complete an average of 15 workouts each month. In addition, the merger with Myx will further leverage the scale of The Beachbody Company's platform as it unlocks synergies across distribution, marketing and content creation for all three of its brands.
“We are excited to partner with Forest Road and Myx Fitness, and are humbled by the proven team of executives and industry icons who have stepped forward to support our shared vision,” said Mr. Daikeler. “We have seen incredible digital growth in recent years, which was further fueled in 2020 by a structural and lasting shift in how people embrace health and fitness. With the acquisition of Myx, cutting edge technology meets best-in-class streaming content -- and we will continue to redefine the at-home fitness experience as we pair the integrated hardware, science-based heart rate coaching and personalized smart recommendations behind Myx with Beachbody and Openfit’s best-in-class content libraries, track record of content innovation and vast network.”
Mr. Mayer commented: “Beachbody’s rapid subscriber growth is grounded in the concept of community and accountability with a mission-driven focus that capitalizes on the huge growth in the health and wellness space. The Company's engagement and retention metrics validate the quality and depth of its content library and direct-to-consumer (DTC) technology capabilities. I see many parallels at Beachbody with the work we did at Disney, where we aggressively accelerated our digital transformation and leveraged our content to build Disney+, ESPN+ and Hulu. In addition to its significant organic growth potential, the scale and differentiation of Beachbody’s platform will allow us to pursue attractive M&A opportunities in this highly fragmented ecosystem, which will enable us to increase our market share globally and diversify our product offering. I’m excited to join the board to help further fuel growth and value creation for the company and its shareholders.”
“When we raised our SPAC, we were determined to find a company with a strong, proven business model and significant growth potential where we could add value from our experience in the creation and monetization of premium content. Beachbody is a perfect fit with those objectives,” said Tom Staggs, former COO & CFO of Disney and Forest Road board member and strategic advisory committee chair. “We are fortunate to have identified a business poised to benefit from three powerful market trends: digital subscriptions, connected fitness and growing consumer demand for health and wellness. These trends give us even more confidence that we have found an extremely attractive investment for our shareholders. Beachbody has always leveraged its fitness content to acquire customers profitably and with the proceeds of this transaction, Carl and his team at Beachbody can invest to significantly accelerate customer acquisition and financial growth for years to come.”
Combined Company Highlights
A diverse portfolio that appeals to a broad consumer base through a holistic approach that brings together at-home, digitally enabled fitness, nutrition and community
Generated 2020 pro forma revenue of $880 million across BOD, Openfit and Myx, which achieved $30 million of revenue in its first year of operations
2.6 million paid digital fitness subscribers with 96% month over month retention
Industry-leading 89% gross margins on digital subscription revenue across all three brands
The deepest library of premium fitness content in the industry that generates more than 180 million views annually
A premium portfolio of branded nutrition products that are scientifically developed, clinically tested and strategically paired with fitness content for a holistic health and wellness experience
Scalable platform that enables synergies across distribution, marketing and content creation
Management team with over 22 years of experience creating content, acquiring customers and delivering substantial revenue and EBITDA
Well-positioned to unlock accelerated growth and expects to achieve compound annual revenue growth of 30% over the next 5 years
Transaction Overview
In addition to the approximately $300 million held in Forest Road’s trust account (assuming no redemptions), institutional investors, including Fidelity Management & Research Company LLC and Fertitta Capital, have committed to a private placement (“PIPE”) of $225 million to purchase shares of Class A common stock of the combined company that will close concurrently with the business combination.
The transaction implies a pro forma enterprise value for Beachbody of approximately $2.9 billion, or 2.0x 2022 estimated revenue. It is anticipated that the combined company will have over $420 million of unrestricted cash on the balance sheet, assuming no redemptions from the trust account, to fund its future growth plans.
The Board of Directors of Forest Road, and the Board of Managers of each of Beachbody and Myx have unanimously approved the transaction, and holders representing a majority of Beachbody equity interests and a majority of Myx equity interests have signed voting and support agreements agreeing to vote for the transaction. In addition to Beachbody and Myx equity holder approvals, the transaction will require the approval of the stockholders of Forest Road, and is subject to other customary closing conditions, including the receipt of certain regulatory approvals.
Additional information about the proposed transaction, including a copy of the merger agreement and investor presentation, will be provided in a Current Report on Form 8-K to be filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and will be available at www.sec.gov.
Advisors
The Raine Group LLC (“Raine”) acted as exclusive financial advisor to Beachbody. Credit Suisse (USA) LLC (“Credit Suisse”) is acting as lead capital markets advisor to Beachbody. BofA Securities, Inc. is acting as an additional capital markets advisor to Beachbody. Latham & Watkins LLP and Cozen O’Connor C.P. are acting as legal advisors to Beachbody.
Credit Suisse is acting as lead placement agent and Raine and Cantor Fitzgerald & Co are acting as placement agents on the private placement. Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison LLP is acting as legal advisor to Credit Suisse on the private placement.
Guggenheim Securities, LLC is acting as lead financial and capital markets advisor to Forest Road. Greenhill & Co, LLC is also acting as financial advisor to Forest Road. Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated is acting as an additional capital markets advisor to Forest Road. Kirkland & Ellis LLP and Ellenoff Grossman & Schole LLP are acting as legal advisors to Forest Road.
Greenberg Traurig, LLP is acting as legal advisor to Myx Fitness.
Investor Conference Call Information
Forest Road and Beachbody will host an investor conference call to discuss the proposed transaction on February 10, 2021 at 9:00 am Eastern time.
Interested parties may listen to the prepared remarks call via telephone by dialing 1-877-407-3982 or, for international callers, 1-201-493-6780. For those who are unable to listen to the live call, a replay will be available until 11:59 pm ET on February 24, 2021 and can be accessed by dialing 1-844-512-2921, or for international callers, 1-412-317-6671 and entering replay Pin number: 13716416. A webcast of the call will also be available on the Forest Road website at https://www.spacroadone.com.
The pre-recorded conference call webcast, a related investor presentation with more detailed information regarding the proposed transaction and a transcript of the investor call will also be available at https://www.spacroadone.com/. The investor presentation which will be furnished today to the SEC, can be viewed at the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov.
About The Beachbody Company
Headquartered in Santa Monica, The Beachbody Company is a worldwide leader in health and fitness, with a 22-year track record of creating innovative content and powerful brands. With 2.6 million paid digital fitness subscribers across two platforms, a nationwide peer-support system of over 400,000 influencers and coaches, and a premium portfolio of branded nutrition products, Beachbody is a leading holistic health and wellness company with over $1 billion in revenue projected in 2021. The Beachbody Company is the parent company to the Beachbody On Demand platform, the fast-growing DTC platform Openfit, which launched in 2019 and features 400+ live trainer-led group fitness classes per week with real-time feedback, and following the merger, Myx Fitness, a connected fitness company which offers science-driven, highly personalized heart rate-based training. For more information, please visit TheBeachbodyCompany.com.
With the highest-rated premium content, and a rating of 4.9 out of 5 stars in the App Store, the Beachbody digital model integrates programs such as P90X®, INSANITY®, 21 Day Fix®, Body Beast®, PiYo®, 80 Day Obsession®, Transform:20® and LIIFT4® on the Beachbody On Demand streaming service with proprietary meal planning strategies and clinically-proven nutrition supplements that are developed by top scientists and fitness and nutrition experts – including the Shakeology line of premium, superfood supplements— and a network of social influencer coaches that delivers motivation and accountability to help customers achieve and maintain healthy results. Featuring a broad range of the nation's most popular fitness and weight-loss solutions, the Company offers more than 2,300 titles of streamed fitness content (in English and Spanish) with 84 programs for beginners, extreme, dance, yoga, pre/postnatal, kids, etc.
Openfit is a digital streaming platform that integrates fitness, nutrition and wellness together in one place. Openfit provides world-class fitness programs with live trainer-led and on-demand workouts such as Xtend Barre and 4 Weeks of Focus with Shay Mitchell, designed to help subscribers reach any goal with personalized nutrition plans and tracking. Openfit acquired Ladder in 2020, the sports nutrition company founded by LeBron James and Arnold Schwarzenegger. Ladder product is NSF Certified for Sport®, a third-party certification trusted by all major sports governing bodies and verifies that products do not contain any of approximately 270+ substances banned by major athletic organizations and that the contents of the product match what is printed on the label.
About Myx Fitness
Myx Fitness delivers a revolutionary and personalized solution for its members to make connected fitness part of their daily lives. The brand's cornerstone products, The MYX and The MYX Plus, offer professional-quality equipment at an affordable price, hundreds of on-demand classes, combined with expert coaching on a digital platform, designed to improve endurance, strength, mobility and flexibility. Using science-backed methods, Myx Fitness utilizes proprietary heart rate technology and cross-training, brought to life through positive coaching, to deliver lasting results. Myx Fitness was founded in 2016 by Brad Palmer and the team at Palm Ventures, his private investment firm focused on incubating market disrupting businesses.
The MYX and The MYX Plus include a professional-grade Star Trac Stationary Bike, a 21.5" interactive tablet and a Polar OH1 Heart Rate Monitor. The Plus package also includes three sets of SPRI dumbbells, a kettlebell, a resistance band, a 24" foam roller and two mats. Myx Fitness uses science-backed, heart rate-based 1:1 training technology to customize every workout to maximize results, ensure lasting results and avoid wasted time and energy. Myx Fitness is available starting at $1,299 with delivery nationwide in approximately three to five weeks depending on location and scheduling availability.
About Forest Road Acquisition Corp.
Forest Road Acquisition Corp., a blank check company formed for the purpose of effecting a merger, capital stock exchange, asset acquisition, stock purchase, reorganization or similar business combination with one or more businesses, raised $300 million in November 2020 and its securities are listed on the NYSE under the tickers “FRX,” “FRX.U” and “FRX WS.” The Forest Road team includes three former Disney senior executives — Tom Staggs, director and Chairperson of the Strategic Advisory Committee, Kevin Mayer, strategic advisor and Salil Mehta, Chief Financial Officer — and is strengthened by the strategic connectivity and deal-making expertise of directors, officers and strategic advisors like Shaquille O'Neal, Peter Schlessel, Keith Horn, Sheila Stamps, Teresa Miles Walsh and Martin Luther King III. For more information, please visit https://www.spacroadone.com/.
LMB - i think Creede is spot on with his reference to LMB massing some extra cash for that re-fi.
Technically (chart-wise) it will be interesting to see if LMB tomorrow holds around the 50dma at 13.52 on the daily chart. AH today it traded some shares under that.
The next level of support is the upper cloud-band in Ichimoku T.A., which is somewhere in 12.60s, as i eyeball it. Those cloudband lines will often form the support/resistance level not obvious if you only look at moving avgs.
Interestingly, if you switch to the weekly chart for LMB, the rising 50dma is about to make a bullish cross above the 200dma within a couple of weeks.
Bottom line, though: we need to hear from LMB what price those shares will be offered.... Hopefully it's high enough to inspire confidence in trading.
Pull up a daily chart for both the IWM (Russell 2000 smallcaps) and IWC (microcaps) and notice that
--the former is up over 50% since late Oct.,
--and the micros are up over 75% since late Sept. (That's an entire index up that much in less than 5 months!)
The last 7 trading days look almost parabolic in shape for the IWC!
No wonder many of our names are getting massive tailwinds
Meanwhile the CNN Fear & Greed index is only at 64, which isn't in the extreme greed category, but barely halfway into the mere "greed" zone
https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/
Which is to say that the overall market sentiment, according to that parameter, is hardly "overbought" or in the territory of "irrational exuberance," even though several market indices are making all-time highs.
My own sense -- i could be wrong-- is that a lot of the buying pressure is coming from big shortsellers closing positions in this new era of Robinhood and Reddit "ambushes" directly aimed at the bigger short positions.
SYAT - thanks for that optimistic analyst news, Swan.
Still holding all my shares, bought around 13 months ago (far too soon!!)
This stock could easily be a low-float candidate for the Robinhood and Reddit trader groups to run up to the skies.
It certainly has an attractive "macro story"-- helping first responders, bus drivers, et al.
We can dream.....
LMB - maybe there are a bunch of projects they want to work on and just want to have some capital ahead of time.
With the huge building boom going on, maybe this is the reason....
LMB - down about $2 after-hours on this news of a share offering; for us short-term swing traders, i hope it drops a bit more tomorrow as stoplosses triggered so i can buy it in $12s again.
Limbach Holdings Announces Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock
February 09 2021 - 04:01PM
Business Wire
Limbach Holdings, Inc. (Nasdaq: LMB) (“Limbach” or the “Company”), a provider of building infrastructure services, with an expertise in the design, installation and maintenance of HVAC and mechanical, electrical, and plumbing systems for a diversified group of commercial and institutional building owners, today announced that it intends to offer and sell shares of its common stock in an underwritten public offering. In connection with this proposed offering, Limbach expects to grant the underwriter a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 15% of the shares of common stock to be sold in the proposed offering at the public offering price, less underwriting discounts and commissions. The proposed offering is subject to market and other conditions, and there can be no assurance as to whether or when the proposed offering may be completed, or as to the actual size or terms of the proposed offering. All of the shares in the proposed offering are to be sold by Limbach.
Limbach intends to use the net proceeds from the proposed public offering for general corporate purposes, which may include, without limitation, working capital and growth capital.
Lake Street Capital Markets LLC is acting as Sole Book-Runner for this proposed offering.
The proposed offering is being made pursuant to a shelf registration statement on Form S-3 (File No. 333-232406) that was declared effective by the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) on August 6, 2019. A preliminary prospectus supplement describing the terms of the proposed offering will be filed with the SEC, will form part of the effective registration statement and will be available on the SEC’s website, located at www.sec.gov. Copies of the prospectus supplement and the accompanying prospectus relating to the proposed offering may also be obtained, when available, from Lake Street Capital Markets, LLC, Attention: Syndicate Department, 920 Second Avenue South, Suite 700, Minneapolis, Minnesota 55402, or by calling (612) 326-1305, or by emailing prospectus@lakestreetcm.com.
This press release shall not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy these securities nor shall there be any offer or sale of these securities in any state or jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such state or jurisdiction. Any offer, if at all, will be made only by means of a prospectus supplement and accompanying prospectus, which are a part of the effective registration statement.
About Limbach
Limbach provides building infrastructure services, with an expertise in the design, installation and maintenance of HVAC and mechanical, electrical, and plumbing systems for a diversified group of commercial and institutional building owners. Limbach employs more than 1,700 employees in 22 offices throughout the United States. The Company’s full life-cycle capabilities, from concept design and engineering through system commissioning and recurring 24/7 service and maintenance, position Limbach as a value-added and essential partner for building owners, construction managers, general contractors and energy service companies