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I just posted the following to another message

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value1008 Member Level  Thursday, 02/25/21 03:39:18 PM
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I just posted the following to another message board, but it should be posted here, too:

FIII has really been in a downward trend with the mkt selloff, especially in tech and the EV space (which saw such huge appreciation this past Fall-Winter and now lots of profit-taking).

FIII, as some of us have posted, is a SPAC nearing completion of a merger with ELMS [Electric Last Mile Solutions], an upcoming manufacturer of the Class 1 (up to 6k lb loads) Urban Delivery van, which will produce them in the already EV retro-fitted former GM Hummer plant in Indiana.

After subtracting the $7,500 US govt tax credit, the new delivery van from ELMS will sell for only $25k, matching the cost of all the gasoline-powered vans in that class, and of course the far fewer parts and no fuel-consumption (except for daily recharging) will mean FAR LOWER COSTS for fleet buyers and various small business owners.

The co-founder and CEO of ELMS is a chap named James Taylor, who had a wide variety of senior exec positions with GM (head of Cadillac, Hummer, etc.) and prior EV start-up companies.

There's a new interview with Taylor out today, conducted by the Absolute Return podcast (not the Autoline interview with Taylor from several days ago). It was put out today by FIII on the newswire as a printed transcript. That transcript, unfortunately, appears in very raw form, with obvious mistakes by the voice-transcribing software and no editing whatsoever (e.g., to remove all the "you knows," correct some run-on sentences, inconsistent grammar, etc.).


But check out these three especially important sections from Taylor, wherein he speaks of 1) ELMS' much lower breakeven threshold for profitability compared to other EV makers, and 2) the demand for the upcoming ELMS class 1 Urban Delivery van, and 3) he visualizes a big future for ELMS:

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"...our business model is different than all of the rest of those guys [in the heavier class EV trucks and in the upcoming EV pickup trucks] in the sense of using existing proven platforms and hardware. So, coming off of an existing base [for the chassis etc.] drastically reduces the investment. ... Looking at return on investment [ROI] -- and no shots taken, but Arrival or Lordstown, you know, pick any of them, and you're sort of downstroke of cost center... you know, $700 to $800 million, $2 billion in Rivian space. At some point in time, you have to pay that investment back. [By contrast:] We have a very, very low entry cost in our particular case, we're showing $116 [million] to get into the first models. So, you know, our [...] margin to break even and become cashflow positive is very short and different than the other guys --[entailing] a lower number of units or a lower period of time before we're in a pretty healthy cash position and producing, you know, very large amounts of cash, which should turn into both returns and stock prices."

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"if you guys look at any of the forecasts that are out there for this delivery space, they all have to be understated because nobody saw the increase of going what's on an e-commerce and then therefore the demands on delivery. [... ] Whatever [growth] curves we have in our [slide] deck, whatever [growth] curves you look up from any third parties, they got to be wrong in how crazy e-commerce is going to go and this last mile delivery. So, I think we're in a bulls-eye space in this -- a truly, literally last lift, last mile. The term 'last mile' has got a pretty broad usage. It's become almost a term or a thing versus the last mile literally, and because our vehicles are the small ones and they're almost the shuttles, they truly are the last delivery leg in this long chain of logistics. So that space is so over demanded right now [i.e., there's huge demand] that customers we've talked to, if you had 5,000 thousand tomorrow, [are saying] 'we will take them.' If you have 10,000 thousand, 'I'll take them.' They're hungry to get their hands on, of course, now gas [powered vans], there are no electric [yet], but any hardware they can get their hands on."

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"[...] Just so you understand the SPAC money isn't guaranteed, right? It's sitting in trust. They [Forum III] still have to go through a vote process to actually, you know, issue that money. So, there could be a swing on whether that $250 [million] in the SPAC all comes our way or only a portion of it. So, let's plan best case: If all of the SPAC money came our way, [because] there were no redemptions. Second part of that is that the money that we've raised outside of that all comes in. Then we definitely have, you know, a pot of money in excess of what we had said we would need to do the plan that we forecasted. So, let's hope that all comes true. And if it does, then we will be able to (A) move some of our product forward, (B) add other variations, other flavors, other models that we didn't originally have in the plan. [Possibility] (C) is M&A and as you've seen in our model there, we have relationships with some upfitting companies, as well as the data companies. And we have also… line of sight or target eyes on some opportunities, say in the M&A space; you know, we could take on other minority or majority share ownerships and bring those closer into us than using say a traditional supplier model. So those are some ideas of what we would use the so-called extra cash for, but that's a good problem, having extra cash."

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