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BGFV - good little find there, Hweb! It does sound promising re: their online sales.
Yeah, the IWC microcap index was actually up 0.07% today while the other indices were well into the red.
SPY - first real test of support at the lower Bollinger band since April for the S&P500. It's recovering -- would love to see it back above the 50dma at 332.56, but i don't think it will happen unless we get some strong buying into the close here these last ten minutes.
It looks like the descending 9dma provided some upper resistance yesterday and today....
Chart obviously still looks somewhat bullish for the short (to medium?) term...
Pacific Northwest: that's tremendously good news about the substantial rain coming last night to give firefighters the edge over those nightmarish wildfires. And with more rain to come that helps them even more get everything to 100% containment.
Again, we pray that no dangerous debris flows / landslides occur from the drenching rain on so many burnt-out areas.
Take good care of yourselves up there in such beautiful terrain!
BGFV - good job, Larry, in getting that tidbit. Could make for a really nice s/price boost if it's a well-known investor who then files an SEC 13d or 13g announcing more than 5% ownership.
BGFV - yeah, i only just looked at the stock now (as usual, i'm busy most days with a big writing project so can't just watch tickers all day) and i see it's right back down to hovering around that upper Bollinger band, which is presently at 6.63 on the daily chart.
But the shareprice is still floating nicely above that green cloud-band (in Ichimoku charting), and that band is green for the next five weeks showing. The RSI is only at 60.5, meaning still lots of possible upside room here, the Aroon green line is still up at 100 from this morning 'til now, indicating that a strong trend change has been put in place, and that MACD looks to be crossing into positive territory with the upcurling black line about to cross back above the red line for the first time since it fell below the red line back around Aug. 14.
All those things are bullish signs.
The only negative? As i finish this post, the shareprice is exactly at 6.66 -- 666 being "the sign of the Beast" according to that crazy text Book of the Apocalypse (which in my studied opinion never should have been tacked onto the end of the New Testament).
BGFV - we'll probably see a support test of upper Bollinger band (which is in upper 6.60s right now) and then hopefully a move back up.
RSI in 62s is certainly not "overbought" here.
BGFV - some really nice stuff going on just technically speaking. MACD has curled up strongly, the green line on the Aroon indicator just exploded up from 0 two days ago to 100. It looks like all BGFV needed to do the other day was test support at lower Bollinger band and not even have to dip down close to the rising 50 dma. Now it's back above the upper Bolly band and pulling that up.
If you're a short, it seems insane not to cover here... This could easily be back above $8 soon enough....
BGFV - some really nice stuff going on just technically speaking. MACD has curled up strongly, the green line on the Aroon indicator just exploded up from 0 two days ago to 100. It looks like all BGFV needed to do the other day was test support at lower Bollinger band and not even have to dip down close to the rising 50 dma. Now it's back above the upper Bolly band and pulling that up.
If you're a short,
Littlefish, everyone there in NW USA (human, animal) deserves some beautiful rain to put out those hellish fires and clear the skies of particulates and various toxins carried in the smoke.
May it happen!
I just hope it's not TOO MUCH rain right now, which of course can bring terrible problems in the aftermath (erosion, flash flooding) -- like when a section of mountain came down after the Winter 2018 Thomas Fire onto my former residential area of Montecito, CA (next to Santa Barbara).
Disaster relief officials called it the worst disaster zone they'd ever seen in the western USA.
Larry, the guy is a big Trump supporter and obviously the art of deceitful self-aggrandizement and bloviating hyperbole has worn off DJT onto MrI-Pro, too.
Btw, i notice that he no longer mentions a word about ADMA or FRAN, two of his previously much-touted picks from last month that have taken it on the chin.
BGFV - Wade, i'm not seeing it on this list:
https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/trader.aspx?id=RegSHOThreshold
BGFV - Wade, pull up a chart and you'll see that for the first time in over two months the stock seems to be in process of testing its rising 50dma after the big move up from another support test of the 50dma in the $1.70s back on July 8.
I think this a.m. might have been a successful test of the rising 50dma, which is presently at 5.20 and climbing. The stock didn't even drop back to the low 5.40s.
All along i've been wondering if the shorts and algos would succeed in getting the stock to fill a small chart-gap around the 4.75 to 5.10 level (as i eyeball it-- one could go check historical highs and lows from that period of July 28-31).
Now with the apparent support of the rising 50dma, i don't think a gap-fill will happen, and if so the stock should be free to move back up well into the $6s or higher.
Obviously i could be wrong....
But if i'm a shortseller, that rising 50dma, combined with the "calmed-down" RSI (down from upper 80s in late July to 49-50 in recent days), the basing MACD pattern, and of course the strong qtrly guidance given by the co. would be a scary thing.
EV battery recycling - you folks might be interested in a little Canadian co. AMY.v - American Manganese, which several years ago began developing an EV battery recycling process with their longtime research partner Kemetco.
I used to follow this co. back around 2011 when they tried, unsuccessfully, to develop the USA's only significant manganese deposit in western Arizona. The feasibility report showed it just couldn't be profitable at the time.
Then around 2015 their partner Kemetco realized that the manganese extraction process could be altered to extract lithium and cobalt from spent EV batteries.
AMY has been getting attention at numerous EV battery recycling conferences, etc.
Still just a penny stock-- now trading around 0.19-0.20 on the USA otc ticker.
I think they're a candidate for eventually being bought out.
BGFV - just for the sake of argument, i could have told folks (and did tell them here) that just using "historical" horizontal lines of support (e.g., going back several weeks to early Aug.) one could see that the mid-$5s were a next support level below $6. One didn't need to use Fib retrace T.A. to see that.
I would encourage you or anyone to get used to viewing charts with the overlays of Bollinger bands and also the Ichimoku Cloud T.A. --which creates the green or pink cloud bands but also shows those 9dma and 26dma moving-average lines.
If you do that with BGFV and other stocks with sufficient trading volume, you'll see an amazing amount of testing support / resistance at those 9dma and 26dma and cloud-band-lines used in Ichimoku T.A., as well as the Bollinger bands -- how many times have i seen individual stocks run up along the upper Bolly band, and then retrace down and, if they fall far enough, rebound up from the lower Bollinger band, to establish highs and lows for a trading range.
E.g., today's low for BGFV could be seen as a testing of that lower Bollinger band.
As all the experts on Fibonacci T.A. will tell you, the method is not to be used in EXCLUSION to other T.A. methods.
P.S.- on charting, i'll reiterate that Fib levels are important, but b/c there is some controversy among some folks (and algo-driven bots??) on exactly where the low and high points are to be established...
...then, imo, the easily glimpsed moving averages and Bollinger bands and Ichimoku Cloud band levels (and those 9dma and 26dma) come into play more often, even far more often.
These can be "eyeballed" very quickly, much faster than Fib levels.
Fibs - also, Wade, i noticed you were using the closing high, not the intraday high for BGFV, but as you can see from this Investopedia article, the intraday high or high-of-the-day (HOD) is used:
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/11/fibonacci-rules.asp
So in BGFV's case, a Fib retrace should utilize that 8.47 HOD on Aug 7 and the LOD of around 1.78 on July 8-- a 6.69 jump. Then apply the .382 or 0.5 or .618 numbers to present re-trace territory.
And yes, note that 0.5 is used by chartists, as in that Fib calculator someone posted a while ago here.
BGFV - imo, along with Fib retrace levels, perhaps even more important for the algos and day-traders are the moving averages and the Bollinger bands. This a.m. BGFV was definitely toying with that lower Bolly band, presently at 5.44.
The rising 50dma, presently at 4.72, should be above 5.00 in a few days. That would be next very strong level of support, imo.
But frankly i don't think it will trade down there....
BGFV - Wade, as i understand it from much reading years ago about Fib retrace levels, the next Fib level after .382 is .50, then comes .618 level. A 50% retrace isn't a classic Fib number, but is widely seen and used in T.A., which is why it's included by chartists.
Yes, and looking at the SPY, looks like all the gains of the recent 9-day period have been cancelled out in just two days.
Chart for the IWM (Russell 2000 smallcap) shows all the gains of the prior 5 weeks cancelled in these two days, yesterday and this a.m.
BGFV - my bid for shares at 5.62 finally filled this afternoon.
COVID - Just saw this article about the "Bradykinin hypothesis" to explain the worst cases of COVID-19. The last paragraph suggests Vitamin D supplementation but also some already-FDA-approved drugs that could be used (presumably under the Emergency Use Authorization) to mitigate the "bradykinin storm."
I wonder if any of this is "actionable info" for investing..... E.g., would some of those drugs bring in big profits for Big Pharma cos.?
----------------------
https://www.biospace.com/article/-oak-ridge-researchers-use-supercomputer-on-covid-19/
Bradykinin Hypothesis of COVID-19 Offers Hope for Already-Approved Drugs
Sep 02, 2020 By Mark Terry
A group of researchers at Oak Ridge National Lab in Tennessee used the Summit supercomputer, the second-fastest in the world, to analyze data on more than 40,000 genes from 17,000 genetic samples related to COVID-19. The analysis took more than a week and analyzed 2.5 billion genetic combinations. And it came up with a new theory, dubbed the bradykinin hypothesis, on how COVID-19 affects the body.
Daniel Jacobson, a computational systems biologist at Oak Ridge, noted that [in COVID patients] the expression of genes for significant enzymes in the renin-angiotensin system (RAS), which is involved in blood pressure regulation and fluid balance, was abnormal. He then tracked the abnormal RAS in the lung fluid samples to the kinin cascade, which is an inflammatory pathway closely regulated by the RAS.
In the kinin system, bradykinin, which is a key peptide, causes blood vessels to leak, allowing fluid to accumulate in organs and tissue. And in COVID-19 patients, this system was unbalanced. People with the disease had increased gene expression for the bradykinin receptors and for enzymes known as kallikreins that activate the kinin pathway.
Jacobson and his team published the research in the journal eLife. They believe that this research explains many aspects of COVID-19 that were previously not understood, including why there is an abnormal accumulation of fluid in the patients’ lungs.
From the research, SARS-CoV-2 infection typically starts when the virus enters the body via ACE2 receptor in the nose, where they are common. The virus then moves through the body, integrating into cells that also have ACE2, including the intestines, kidneys and heart. This is consistent with some of COVID-19’s cardiac and gastrointestinal symptoms.
But the virus does not appear to stop there. Instead, it takes over the body’s systems, upregulating ACE2 receptors in cells and tissues where they’re not common, including the lungs. Or as Thomas Smith writes in Medium, “COVID-19 is like a burglar who slips in your unlocked second-floor window and starts to ransack your house. Once inside, though, they don’t just take your stuff—they also throw open all your doors and windows so their accomplices can rush in and help pillage more efficiently.”
The final result of all this is what is being called a bradykinin storm. When the virus affects the RAS, the way the body regulates bradykinin runs amuck [amok], bradykinin receptors are resensitized, and the body stops breaking down bradykinin, which is typically degraded by ACE. They believe it is this bradykinin storm that is responsible for many of COVID-19’s deadliest symptoms.
The researchers wrote that “the pathology of COVID-19 is likely the result of Bradykinin Storms rather than cytokine storms,” which have been observed in COVID-19 patients, but that “the two may be intricately linked.”
Another researcher, Frank van de Veerdonk, an infectious disease researcher at the Radboud University Medical Center in Netherlands, had made similar observations in mid-March. In April, he and his research team theorized that a dysregulated bradykinin system was causing leaky blood vessels in the lungs, which was a potential cause of the excess fluid accumulation.
Josef Penninger, director of the Life Sciences Institute at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver, who identified that ACE2 is the essential in vivo receptor for SARS, told The Scientist that he believes bradykinin plays a role in COVID-19. “It does make a lot of sense.” And Jacobson’s study supports the hypothesis, but additional research is needed for confirmation. “Gene expression signatures don’t tell us the whole story. I think it is very important to actually measure the proteins.”
Another aspect of Jacobson’s study is that via another pathway, COVID-19 increases production of hyaluronic acid (HLA) in the lungs. HLA is common in soaps and lotions because it absorbs more than 1,000 times its weight in fluid. Taking into consideration fluid leaking into the lungs and increased HLA, it creates a hydrogel in the lungs of some COVID-19 patients, which Jacobson describes as “like trying to breathe through Jell-O.”
This provides a possible explanation for why ventilators have been less effective in severe COVID-19 than physicians originally expected. “It reaches a point,” Jacobson says, “where regardless of how much oxygen you pump in, it doesn’t matter, because the alveoli in the lungs are filled with this hydrogel. The lungs become like a water balloon.”
The bradykinin hypothesis also explains why about 20% of COVID-19 patients have heart damage, because RAS controls aspects of cardiac contractions and blood pressure. It also supports COVID-19’s neurological effects, such as dizziness, seizures, delirium and stroke, which is seen in as much as 50% of hospitalized patients. French-based research identified leaky blood vessels in the brains of COVID-19 patients. And at high doses, bradykinin can break down the blood-brain barrier.
On the positive side, their research suggests that drugs that target components of RAS are already FDA approved for other diseases and might be effective in treating COVID-19. Some, such as danazol (to treat endometriosis, fibrocystic breast disease, and hereditary angioedema), stanazolol (an anabolic steroid derived from testosterone), and ecallantide (marketed as Kalbitor for hereditary angioedema (HAE) and the prevention of blood loss in cardiothoracic surgery), decrease bradykinin production. Icatibant, also used to treat HAE, and is marketed as Firazyr, decreases bradykinin signaling and could minimize its effects once it’s in the body. Vitamin D may potentially be useful, because it is involved in the RAS system and may reduce levels of REN, another compound involved in the system.
The researchers note that “the testing of any of these pharmaceutical interventions should be done in well-designed clinical trials.”
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
BGFV - i, too, am buying more shares here at avg. 5.88 or so...
And i have more bids in place in case BGFV wants to visit the mid $5s.
I wouldn't put it past the algo-bots to drive this all the way down for a test of the (rising) lower Bollinger band presently at 5.34.... E.g., it might go to about 5.40 then rebound back up. Jmo....
NEOV - since the chart doesn't go back earlier than May, i assume this was an IPO stock. I wonder what will happen when any locked-up shares come onto the market for trading.... Probably not that continuing upward diagonal line for the s/price....
>SPWH is down 6% today along with BGFV down 7% while HIBB and DKS are up nicely. I'd say investors are swapping out of BGFV and SPWH for DKS and HIBB for whatever reason.
And after they've chased up those stocks, presumably a lot of those buyers will come back over to BGFV (and SPWH?) as we get closer to Big5 reporting stellar earnings.....
Nelson, on BGFV you posted, "... it had enuf meaning to me to sell the late move up to $8.87"
I just knew you were operating in another universe of especially good fortune to be able to sell at that price
BGFV - didn't think it would immediately try a new test of support, but here it is-- let's see what it does with its 20dma (6.41), 9dma (6.38) and 26dma (6.09)
BGFV - I'm not selling; that late day spike up blasted the stock nicely above any possible resistance at the 9dma (6.45) or 20dma (6.37) levels. Hoping we get a continuation move tomorrow to head up to join or test resistance at the upper Bollinger band in mid-$7s.
The co.'s policy is to pay 60% of earnings out as dividends, so it will fluctuate from qtr to qtr....
And, with perfect timing, a S.Alpha article by someone -- perhaps someone posting on this board (not me)?
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4370889-top-holding-is-overlooked-and-massive-potential-p10-holdings?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha#alt1&mail_subject=pioe-my-top-holding-has-10-bagger-potential-p10-holdings&utm_campaign=rta-stock-article&utm_content=link-0
I'm so happy to see PIOE rewarding the faithful shareholders.
Dang, i wish i still had that huge stash of shares, or that i'd rebought at least a few of them down in the 0.70s in Dec. 2018....
Anyway, best wishes and good luck to everyone here!
I actually like Clay's brief charting on trending stocks, but most unfortunately he seems to be followed by a bunch of high-pressure shortsellers (and naked shortsellers) who usually seem to destroy a lot of shareholder value in their wake.
BGFV - i totally agree w/ you, OTC, which is why i've been posting a lot about the technical chart. I wish that Stockcharts or Ihub still allowed one to easily copy charts over here-- just one chart image would demonstrate so easily that this looks just like what you and i have stated: it's a "breather" / consolidation moment for the stock after the big run-up.
BGFV - KiK, our "confidence factor" here is already strengthened by the fact that 1) the co. has given such remarkably confident guidance and explanation of the positive trends in its business, and 2) they've demonstrably cleaned up their balance sheet in such "night and day" fashion, clearing out their debt and maximizing cash/equivalents.
That's why i think any skeptics / shorts are wrong here-- they assume that the COVID pandemic will clear sooner than later and that Big5 will just go back to being a debt-ridden brick&mortar operation.
But this windfall for Big5 can and surely will be used to do all sorts of good things for shareholders.
For starters, as we've discussed, they could significantly reduce the o/s share-count and make future earnings much more valuable.
BGFV - chartwise, today's action thus far looks like another failure to surmount the (now falling) 9dma at 6.46 and, after it sold off, failing to hold the 20dma at 6.28, checking out an initial test of the rising 26dma, presently at 5.76.
(Do the BGFV chart at Stockcharts and plug in Ichimoku Cloud Full for one of the overlays; also opt for the Bollinger bands to see the 20dma and upper & lower bands.)
Maybe today's low at 5.86 is as low as the stockprice needs to go for that support-test, but maybe not.
There is some nice-looking horizontal support around the 5.50 area, tested in the first days of August.
Below that would be a tiny "fill the gap" area down in upper $4s to low $5s. That area is also where the lower Bollinger band currently is (rising).
Fwiw, i've got some bids in the mid-$5s....
BGFV - on their inventory, recall the interesting excerpt from that post by "Frank" at Yahoo Finance that Wade re-posted here at SavvyTrades on 8/1/20:
[Frank:]
"…Big 5 has zero debt, Big 5 has 38 million dollars, Big 5 has $270 million in inventory, Big 5 took 45 million dollars in inventory and turn that into 105 million dollars in cash, paying down debt and putting money in the bank -- that is a great return.
Now for Value: Big Five market cap [only] $105 million. If you were to buy Big 5 for that amount of money you would be getting $270 million in inventory-- that is wholesale price remember. $45 million got you a $105 million in cash, do the math. You also get $38 million in cash, so essentially you'd be buying the company for less than $70 million for $270 million in inventory, that's like buying your inventory for 25 cents on the dollar so if a product cost $1 wholesale and you sell it for $3 it's like you're buying this product for $0.25 wholesale on top of wholesale, not to mention 431 stores that are already open and considered essential just like grocery stores and has a state-of-the-art distribution center "
SOLO - designed for just one person? What's the fun of having a spiffy new vehicle if you can't have a partner to ride in it with you? Even a motorcycle lets a rider sit behind you....
As a result, I can't imagine a huge market for this vehicle.
But wtfdik?
Another interesting weekly post by Mitch Zacks of Zacks.com-- it helps partially explain what might seem like irrational exuberance in the major stockmarket indices:
Sat. Aug. 22, 2020
No One is Talking About Q2 Earnings Season – But They Should Be
Q2 earnings season came and went with very little fanfare. Of course, most financial and other news coverage seemed to be focused solely on the Covid-19 outbreak, unemployment data, politics-as-usual, and fiscal and monetary stimulus. From what I could gather, earnings were barely mentioned at all. But they should have been.
Long-time readers of my column know how much emphasis I place on earnings as a long-term driver of stock prices. If a company consistently grows earnings and frequently exceeds expectations in the process, the stock will almost certainly do well. If you made the argument that the three most important words in equity investing are “better-than-expected,” I’d probably agree with you.
That’s why it is meaningful that earnings were barely mentioned in the news. Even though earnings took a huge hit in Q2 – total earnings (or aggregate net income) for the 458 S&P 500 members that have reported are down -35.4% on -11.3% lower revenues – corporations largely performed better than most analysts and even CEOs expected.1
As I write, 79.7% of reporting companies beat consensus earnings-per-share estimates and 62.9% beat revenue estimates. On a blended basis, 55.7% of companies exceeded expectations, which represents a very strong showing relative to recent history.2
[Chart not shown]
To be fair, analysts were totally in the dark as they set their Q2 earnings-per-share and revenue estimates. As we all know, most companies withdrew previously issued guidance given how difficult it was project business trends during the period because of the pandemic. Everyone was venturing into the unknown.
In my view, however, the tendency to assume worst-case scenarios led to analyst and CEO projections that were far too dire. When the ‘worse than the Great Depression’ forecasts did not materialize, stocks rallied. This is often how markets work.
Importantly, the realization that the economy and corporate earnings outlook may not be as bleak as expected is extending to the current period (Q3 2020) and beyond. As you can see in the chart below, Q3 earnings growth estimates for the S&P 500 index have been gradually improving week to week, getting better in tandem with a slowly – but steadily – improving economic growth picture since the start of July. We have been seeing a similar trend take place for Q4 2020 and full-year 2020 estimates as well.
[chart]
Source: Zacks.com4
This is a notable improvement in the overall earnings picture since the start of the pandemic, and is in-line with high-frequency macroeconomic data showing a similar improvement in the economy’s growth drivers. Recent readings in retail sales, initial jobless claims, and factory activity have all shown steady momentum. Again, the point is not to say the economy is humming again – it isn’t. But are the economy and U.S. corporations holding up just slightly better than many anticipated? I think the data above suggests the answer is yes.
Bottom Line for Investors
Weak economic data is likely to persist for months or maybe even quarters to come, as the pandemic continues to deliver headwinds on growth. But in my view, equity investors should be less focused on this nearer term economic data and more focused on where corporate earnings and the economy are likely to be a year from now, or even by the end of 2021. No one can know the answer for sure. But if I was asked if the economy and earnings are likely to be stronger and better than many people expect as of today, I’d say the answer is yes. Sometimes “better-than-expected” is all that matters.
To help you get a better look at this data, I am offering all readers our Just-Released September 2020 Stock Market Outlook Report. [...]
BGFV - classic chart reversal action today... The stock couldn't stay above the now slightly descending 9dma (in the low 6.80s this a.m.) and so got flung down to test new support at rising 20dma (presently at 6.21), near where it closed (at 6.24). Next support is the rising 26dma, which was at 5.71 today, ostensibly higher on Monday.
I may be able to get that last tranche of shares at sub-$6 as hoped....
APPS - Digital Turbine - here's one we all missed. I came very close to buying it in low $4s in March-April.
I'd read about it over on S.Alpha. But a few negative comments by a few posters at one of the S.A. articles made me second-guess myself-- i was pretty "sold" on buying it but instead held off. Was really tempted to buy it when it dipped under $4....
Today it's trading well over $28/share-- a 7x gainer in just a few months!!